Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections, 2012"

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
m (Text replace - "''Washington Post'' "" to "''Washington Post'', "")
m (Text replace - "''Open Secrets'' "" to "''Open Secrets'', "")
Line 218: Line 218:
 
*[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_senate_balance_of_power ''Rasmussen Reports'' "2012 Senate Balance of Power"]
 
*[http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_senate_balance_of_power ''Rasmussen Reports'' "2012 Senate Balance of Power"]
 
*[http://www.rollcall.com/politics/casualtylist.html ''Roll Call'' "Casualty List: 112th Congress]
 
*[http://www.rollcall.com/politics/casualtylist.html ''Roll Call'' "Casualty List: 112th Congress]
*[http://www.opensecrets.org/races/index.php ''Open Secrets'' "Congressional Races"]
+
*[http://www.opensecrets.org/races/index.php ''Open Secrets'', "Congressional Races"]
  
 
==References==
 
==References==

Revision as of 10:54, 25 March 2014

2014



CongressLogo.png

2012 U.S. Senate Elections

Election Date
November 6, 2012

Election Results

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Arizona • California • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Hawaii • Indiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Dakota • Ohio • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 6, 2012
Poll Opening and Closing Times
Elections to the U.S. Senate were held on November 6, 2012. A total of 33 of the 100 seats were up for election with the addition of special elections to fill vacancies that occurred in the 112th United States Congress.

Nate Silver of the New York Times called the Senate battle a tossup for partisan control.[1] An October 2012 article in The Hill predicted both parties had an equal opportunity at holding control of the Senate after the November election.[2] Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report wrote in October 2012 that the Senate race "couldn't be more volatile."[3] According to The Washington Post, more than half of the 33 races were expected to be competitive which was "more than any recent election."[4]

The Democratic Party successfully defended 22 of 23 seats on election night -- the most held by either party since 1964.[5] With Republican candidates winning only eight seats, this was the worst performance by a major party since the 1950s.[6]

Partisan breakdown

U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of November 2012 After the 2012 Election
     Democratic Party 51 53
     Republican Party 47 45
     Independent 2 2
Total 100 100

The 33 Class 1 U.S. Senate seats were up for election in 2012. Of those 33 seats, 23 were previously held by Democrats and 10 by Republican senators. Thus, Democrats needed to win 21 seats to retain their majority while the GOP needed to win 14 seats to win back the chamber.

Overall, Republicans needed a net gain of four seats on election night to wrest control of the chamber. According to Guy Cecil, executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, "When the cycle started no one gave Democrats a shot a holding the majority." Rob Jesmer, executive director of the Republican Senatorial Committee was hopeful about Republican chances. "There's very good movement across the board," he said.[7]

Margin of victory

There were a total of 33 seats up for election in 2012. The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the top-two vote getters. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. Some general facts:

  • The fewest votes were in Wyoming, with only 244,445 total votes.
  • The most votes were in California, with 12,578,511
  • The smallest margin of victory, where Democrat Heidi Heitkamp defeated Rick Berg (R) by 0.9 percent.
  • The largest margin of victory was in Wyoming, where Republican John Barrasso defeated Tim Chesnut (D) by 54.1%
  • 11 races had a margin of victory of less than 10 percent. Of those 11 races, 9 were Democratic winners while 2 were Republican.

Retiring incumbents

Ballotpedia staff counted 10 total current incumbents who did not run for re-election in the 2012 elections.

  • Democratic Party 5 Democrats
  • Republican Party 4 Republicans
  • Independent 1 Independents
Name Party State
Jon Kyl Ends.png Republican Arizona
Joe Lieberman Grey.png Nonpartisan Connecticut
Daniel Akaka Electiondot.png Democratic Hawaii
Olympia Snowe Ends.png Republican Maine
Ben Nelson Electiondot.png Democratic Nebraska
Jeff Bingaman Electiondot.png Democratic New Mexico
Kent Conrad Electiondot.png Democratic North Dakota
Kay Bailey Hutchison Ends.png Republican Texas
Jim Webb Electiondot.png Democratic Virginia
Herb Kohl Electiondot.png Democratic Wisconsin

Primary

The following lists displays the dates that each state held United States Senate primaries in 2012.

This map displays the month of each
Congressional primary in 2012
NevadaMassachusettsColoradoNew MexicoWyomingArizonaMontanaCaliforniaOregonWashingtonIdahoTexasOklahomaKansasNebraskaSouth DakotaNorth DakotaMinnesotaIowaMissouriArkansasLouisianaMississippiAlabamaGeorgiaFloridaSouth CarolinaIllinoisWisconsinTennesseeNorth CarolinaIndianaOhioKentuckyPennsylvaniaNew JerseyNewVermontVermontNew HampshireMaineWest VirginiaVirginiaMarylandMarylandConnecticutConnecticutDelawareDelawareRhode IslandRhode IslandMassachusettsNew HampshireMichiganMichiganAlaskaCong primaries colored by month12.png

March

  • Ohio, March 6
  • Alabama, March 13
  • Mississippi, March 13
  • Illinois, March 20

April

  • Maryland, April 3
  • Pennsylvania, April 24

May

  • Indiana, May 8
  • North Carolina, May 8
  • West Virginia, May 8
  • Idaho, May 15
  • Nebraska, May 15
  • Oregon, May 15
  • Arkansas, May 22
  • Kentucky, May 22
  • Texas, May 29

June

  • California, June 5
  • Iowa, June 5
  • Montana, June 5
  • New Jersey, June 5
  • New Mexico, June 5
  • South Dakota, June 5
  • Maine, June 12
  • Nevada, June 12
  • North Dakota, June 12
  • South Carolina, June 12
  • Virginia, June 12
  • Oklahoma, June 26
  • New York, June 26
  • Utah, June 26
  • Colorado, June 26

July

  • Georgia, July 31

August

  • Tennessee, August 2
  • Kansas, August 7
  • Michigan, August 7
  • Missouri, August 7
  • Washington, August 7
  • Hawaii, August 11
  • Connecticut, August 14
  • Florida, August 14
  • Minnesota, August 14
  • Wyoming, August 21
  • Alaska, August 28
  • Arizona, August 28
  • Vermont, August 28

September

  • Massachusetts, September 6
  • Delaware, September 11
  • New Hampshire, September 11
  • Rhode Island, September 11

State-by-state breakdown

The following table displays the 33 seats that were up for election, including the winners.

United States Senate Elections Results in 2012
State Incumbent Incumbent Party Incumbent Running? 2012 Winner Partisan switch?
Arizona Jon Kyl Ends.png Republican No Republican Party Jeff Flake No
California Dianne Feinstein Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Dianne Feinstein No
Connecticut Joe Lieberman Grey.png Nonpartisan No Democratic Party Chris Murphy Yes
Delaware Tom Carper Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Tom Carper No
Florida Bill Nelson Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Bill Nelson No
Hawaii Daniel Akaka Electiondot.png Democratic No Democratic Party Mazie Hirono No
Indiana Richard Lugar Ends.png Republican Yes Democratic Party Joe Donnelly Yes
Maine Olympia Snowe Ends.png Republican Yes Independent Angus King (I) Yes
Maryland Ben Cardin Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Ben Cardin No
Massachusetts Scott Brown Ends.png Republican Yes Democratic Party Elizabeth Warren Yes
Michigan Debbie Stabenow Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Debbie Stabenow No
Minnesota Amy Klobuchar Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar No
Mississippi Roger Wicker Ends.png Republican Yes Republican Party Roger Wicker No
Missouri Claire McCaskill Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Claire McCaskill No
Montana Jon Tester Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Jon Tester No
Nebraska Ben Nelson Electiondot.png Democratic No Republican Party Deb Fischer Yes
Nevada Dean Heller Ends.png Republican Yes Republican Party Dean Heller No
New Jersey Bob Menendez Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Bob Menendez No
New Mexico Jeff Bingaman Electiondot.png Democratic No Democratic Party Martin Heinrich No
New York Kirsten Gillibrand Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Kirsten Gillibrand No
North Dakota Kent Conrad Electiondot.png Democratic No Democratic Party Heidi Heitkamp No
Ohio Sherrod Brown Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Sherrod Brown No
Pennsylvania Bob Casey Jr. Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Bob Casey Jr. No
Rhode Island Sheldon Whitehouse Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Sheldon Whitehouse No
Tennessee Bob Corker Ends.png Republican Yes Republican Party Bob Corker No
Texas Kay Bailey Hutchison Ends.png Republican No Republican Party Ted Cruz No
Utah Orrin Hatch Ends.png Republican Yes Republican Party Orrin Hatch No
Vermont Bernie Sanders Grey.png Nonpartisan Yes Independent Bernie Sanders No
Virginia Jim Webb Electiondot.png Democratic No Democratic Party Tim Kaine No
Washington Maria Cantwell Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Maria Cantwell No
West Virginia Joe Manchin Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Democratic Party Joe Manchin No
Wisconsin Herb Kohl Electiondot.png Democratic No Democratic Party Tammy Baldwin No
Wyoming John Barrasso Ends.png Republican Yes Republican Party John Barrasso No

Campaign finance

Republican-leaning organizations spent $135 million on U.S. House races during the 2012 cycle while Democratic organizations spent $89 million.[8]

October 2012

The Campaign Finance Institute released a report detailing the high levels of independent expenditures in the election cycle. From October 5-12, more than $1 million was spent by outside groups in 10 Senate races alone. Those races were:[9]

Crossroads GPS released seven ads over the course of one week at a cost of $5 million. The states and costs:[10]

Majority PAC, a super PAC supporting Senate Democrats, reported raising $10.4 million in September and an additional $9.7 million through the middle of October.[11]

Candidates by state

See also: List of candidates running in U.S. Congress elections, 2012

For a list of all candidates who ran for office by state, see this page.

Race ratings

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[12]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- U.S. Senate
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
November 1, 2012[13] 8 4 5 10 1 0 5
October 4, 2012[14] 8 4 5 10 0 1 5
September 13, 2012[15] 8 4 4 10 1 1 5
August 21, 2012[16] 8 5 3 9 1 2 5
July 12, 2012[17] 8 4 3 10 1 2 5
May 31, 2012[18] 8 4 3 10 1 2 5
May 10, 2012[19] 8 4 3 10 1 2 5
March 22, 2012[20] 8 4 3 10 0 3 5
March 1, 2012[21] 8 4 3 10 0 3 5
January 26, 2012[22] 8 4 3 9 0 4 5
December 22, 2011[23] 8 5 2 10 0 3 5
December 1, 2011[24] 8 5 2 10 0 4 4

Changes by month

October 2012

  • From September 31, 2012 to November 1, 2012, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
    • Pennsylvania went from Likely Democrat to Lean Democrat
    • Michigan went from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat
    • Hawaii went from Tossup to Lean Democrat
    • Arizona went from Lean Republican to Tossup
    • Nebraska went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

September 2012

  • From August 31, 2012 to September 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
    • New Mexico went from Tossup to Lean Democrat.
    • Connecticut went from Likely Democrat to Tossup
    • Indiana went from Lean Republican to Tossup
    • Arizona went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican

August 2012

  • From July 1, 2012 to August 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
    • Missouri went from Tossup to Likely Democrat.

July 2012

  • None

May 2012

  • From March 1, 2012 to May 31, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
    • Indiana went from Likely Republican to Lean Republican.
    • New Jersey went from Solid Democrat to Likely Democrat.
    • Washington went from Likely Democrat to Solid Democrat.

March 2012

  • From January 26, 2012, to March 1, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
    • Maine went from Likely Republican to Tossup.

January 2012

  • From December 22, 2011, to January 26, 2012, Cook's race ratings changed in the following states:
    • Michigan went from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic.
    • Nebraska went from Tossup to Likely Republican.

December 2011

  • From December 1, 2011, to December 22, 2011, Cook's race ratings changed in the following state:
    • Texas went from Likely Republican to Strong Republican.

Sabato Crystal Ball

Each month the Crystal Ball released race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There were seven possible designations:[25]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Sabato's Crystal Ball Race Rating -- U.S. Senate
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
August 12, 2012[26] 9 5 3 5 5 1 5
April 5, 2012[27] 8 5 3 8 2 2 5
December 1, 2011[28] 8 5 2 8 2 3 5

See also

External links

References

  1. New York Times "In Senate Races, Politics Are Local Again," August 15, 2012
  2. The Hill "Opinion: Republicans facing longer odds in bid to gain Senate control," October 8, 2012
  3. National Journal "Mitt Romney Breaks His Losing Streak," October 4, 2012
  4. Washington Post, "The expanding Congressional battlefield," October 10, 2012
  5. Bloomberg "Senate Democrats: Best Defensive Record Since 1964 — Held 22 of 23," November 10, 2012
  6. Salon.com "The House GOP can’t be beat: It’s worse than gerrymandering," January 13, 2013
  7. Star Tribune "Voter ticket-splitting in half-dozen states could decide whether Dems keep Senate or GOP wins," October 13, 2012
  8. Huffington Post "Democratic Super PACs Trim Conservative Advantage In Congressional Races," November 10, 2012
  9. Campaign Finance Institute "10 Senate, 3 House Races Top $1 Million in Spending Over the Past 7 Days Alone," October 12, 2012
  10. Roll Call "Crossroads GPS Announces $5 million ad buy in seven states," October 16, 2012
  11. The New York Times, "With Growing Willingness, Donors Come to Aid of Democratic ‘Super PACs’," October 19, 2012
  12. Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
  13. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," November 1, 2012
  14. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
  15. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 19, 2012
  16. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 23, 2012
  17. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  18. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  19. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  20. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  21. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  22. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  23. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 22, 2011
  24. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  25. Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," Accessed December 12, 2011
  26. Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 Senate Ratings," August 12, 2012
  27. Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 Senate Ratings," April 5, 2012
  28. Sabato's Crystal Ball "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011