Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections, 2014"

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==Campaign finance==
 
==Campaign finance==
 
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===April 2013===
 
According to an April 2013 [http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/red-state-democrats-raise-millions-elections-90103.html?hp=r2 Politico report], incumbent Democrats in red states raised "millions" in the first three months of 2013.<ref name=Aprilreport>[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/red-state-democrats-raise-millions-elections-90103.html?hp=r2 ''Politico'' "Red-state Democrats raise millions" Accessed April 18, 2013]</ref> The candidates highlighted in the article were:
 
According to an April 2013 [http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/red-state-democrats-raise-millions-elections-90103.html?hp=r2 Politico report], incumbent Democrats in red states raised "millions" in the first three months of 2013.<ref name=Aprilreport>[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/04/red-state-democrats-raise-millions-elections-90103.html?hp=r2 ''Politico'' "Red-state Democrats raise millions" Accessed April 18, 2013]</ref> The candidates highlighted in the article were:
 
*{{bluedot}} [[Mary Landrieu]] (LA) had raised $1.2 million and had $3.5 million cash on hand  
 
*{{bluedot}} [[Mary Landrieu]] (LA) had raised $1.2 million and had $3.5 million cash on hand  
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*{{bluedot}} [[Mark Begich]] (AK) had raised $948,000 and had $1.5 million cash on hand<ref name=Aprilreport/>
 
*{{bluedot}} [[Mark Begich]] (AK) had raised $948,000 and had $1.5 million cash on hand<ref name=Aprilreport/>
  
 
+
===August 2013===
An August 2013 [http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/senators-fundraising-never-stops-95091.html Politico report] reported that the 27 incumbents running for re-election in 2014 had together raised about $125 million by the end of June 2013.<ref name="par">[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/senators-fundraising-never-stops-95091.html ''Politico'' "Senate cash dash now a marathon" Accessed August 1, 2013]</ref> According to the report, 2014 may be the most expensive midterm election to date, pointing to the fact that the total amount raised for incumbents seeking re-election is $30 million more than at the same point in 2012 and on par with the amount they had raised in 2010.<ref name="par"/>
+
An August 2013 [http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/senators-fundraising-never-stops-95091.html Politico report] reported that the 27 incumbents running for re-election in 2014 had together raised about $125 million by the end of June 2013.<ref name="par">[http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/senators-fundraising-never-stops-95091.html ''Politico'' "Senate cash dash now a marathon" Accessed August 1, 2013]</ref> The report also found that 2014 may be the most expensive midterm election to date, pointing to the fact that the total amount raised for incumbents seeking re-election is $30 million more than at the same point in 2012 and on par with the amount they had raised in 2010.<ref name="par"/>
  
 
The incumbents highlighted in the article were:<ref name="par"/>
 
The incumbents highlighted in the article were:<ref name="par"/>

Revision as of 08:03, 2 August 2013

2012

CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Election Date
November 4, 2014

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 4, 2014
Poll Opening and Closing Times
Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 4, 2014. A total of 33 of the 100 seats will be up for regular election. Additionally, two special elections will take place in 2014 to fill vacancies that occurred in the 113th Congress (Hawaii and South Carolina).

Those elected to the U.S. Senate on November 4, 2014 in the 33 regular elections will commence serving six-year terms on January 3, 2015.

2014 marks the 100th anniversary of the direct popular election of U.S. Senators. Prior to the ratification of the Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution in 1913, U.S. Senators were selected by state legislatures.

As of July 2013, seven senators had announced they would not be running for re-election. In comparison, ten incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2012 and twelve did not run for re-election in 2010.

Partisan breakdown

The following table displays the partisan composition of the U.S. Senate heading into the 2014 elections.

In 2014, Republicans would need to pick up six seats currently held by Democrats in order to gain a majority.[1]

Three incumbent Democratic U.S. Senators (Max Baucus of Montana, Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia) have announced that they are not running for re-election in 2014, and the GOP is considered a favorite to pick up the seats they are leaving vacant.[1] Three other states with Democratic U.S. Senators up for re-election in 2014 (Alaska, Arkansas and North Carolina) are generally considered to have GOP-leaning electorates.[1]

In 2012, the Democratic Party retained control over the chamber, winning 25 of the 33 seats. With Republican candidates winning only eight seats, this was the worst performance by a major party since the 1950s.[2]


U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of December 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 53 Pending
     Republican Party 45 Pending
     Independent 2 Pending
Total 100 100

Open seats

As of July 15, 2013, seven senators have announced they will not be running for re-election in 2014:

  • Democratic Party 5 Democrats
  • Republican Party 2 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Carl LevinElectiondot.png Democratic Michigan
Jay RockefellerElectiondot.png Democratic West Virginia
John WalshElectiondot.png Democratic Montana
Mike JohannsEnds.png Republican Nebraska
Saxby ChamblissEnds.png Republican Georgia
Tim JohnsonElectiondot.png Democratic South Dakota
Tom HarkinElectiondot.png Democratic Iowa

Campaign finance

April 2013

According to an April 2013 Politico report, incumbent Democrats in red states raised "millions" in the first three months of 2013.[3] The candidates highlighted in the article were:

  • Democratic Party Mary Landrieu (LA) had raised $1.2 million and had $3.5 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Mark Pryor (AK) had raised $1.9 million and had $3.4 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Kay Hagan (NC) had raised $1.6 million and had $2.7 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Mark Begich (AK) had raised $948,000 and had $1.5 million cash on hand[3]

August 2013

An August 2013 Politico report reported that the 27 incumbents running for re-election in 2014 had together raised about $125 million by the end of June 2013.[4] The report also found that 2014 may be the most expensive midterm election to date, pointing to the fact that the total amount raised for incumbents seeking re-election is $30 million more than at the same point in 2012 and on par with the amount they had raised in 2010.[4]

The incumbents highlighted in the article were:[4]

National Republican Senatorial Committee

In July 2013, National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) president, Rob Collins, circulated a memo to top donors outlining the path to a majority in the Senate for the Republican Party. From the memo:

"Montana now joins West Virginia and South Dakota as the third red-state where Democrats have not only failed to land their top candidates, but to recruit a candidate capable of winning a general election matchup."

Collins went on to state that Republicans need to win just three seats in states with incumbent Democratic senators.[5]

Race ratings

U.S. Senate predictions
Prediction from: Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
Cook Political Report July 1, 2013 6 5 6 3 1 3 11
Rothenberg Political Report June 28, 2013 12 1 1 5 2 2 12
Sabato's Crystal Ball June 27, 2013 7 3 3 5 2 3 11

New York Times

According to an analysis by Nate Silver of The New York Times, Democrats are looking at a tough road ahead of them in the U.S. Senate in 2014. Democrats hold 21 of the 35 seats up for election in 2014, and there are more Democratic controlled seats that lean Republican than Republican seats that lean Democratic.[6]

Additionally, Democrats could suffer from a lower voter turnout of their base due to the fact that 2014 is a midterm election and President Obama will not be on the ballot.[6]

However, Republicans need to take six seats in order to gain control of the Senate, a large gain that will be difficult to accomplish even in a favorable environment. Based on the data below, at this very early stage Republicans are expected to be able to pick up four or five seats.[6]

The table below lists the initial race ratings overview for the 35 senate seats up for election in 2014 as of February 2013.[6]

FiveThirtyEight -- U.S. Senate
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
February 20, 2013[7] 6 7 3 4 0 4 11
July 15, 2013[8] 8 4 3 3 0 4 13
March 23, 2014[9] 10 2 3 1 1 4 16

Most vulnerable seats

The FiscalTimes compiled a list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014. The seven included in the list are: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Going into the 2014 election, all seven seats are held by Democrats.[10]

Issues heading into 2014

[edit]

See also: Gang of Eight

Most recently, the Gang of Eight has been used in reference to immigration reform and includes eight of the most influential Senators, with four from each party.[11][12]

On May 6, 2013 Senators John McCain (R), Chuck Schumer (D), Richard Durbin (D), Robert Menendez (D), Michael Bennet (D), Lindsey Graham (R), Marco Rubio (R), and Jeff Flake (R) unveiled the outlines of their bi-partisan immigration plan.[11][12] The statement of principles was rather broad, but sets forth “four basic pillars”:

  • 1. A “tough but fair path to citizenship . . . .contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country as required”;
  • 2. Reform our legal immigration system with a greater eye toward our economic needs;
  • 3. Workplace verification; and
  • 4. Setting up a system for admitting future workers (although the term “guest worker” is not used).[12]

On June 27, 2013 in a late afternoon vote, the Senate voted to approve the immigration reform bill, Senate Bill 744.[13] The bill passed by a vote of 68-to-32, with 14 Republicans voting in favor.[14][13]

Speaker John Boehner told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting on July 10, 2013 that the internal debate over immigration reform is an “important conversation," and that while the House will not take up the Senate-passed bill, members must do something to address the issue.[15]

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) on July 8, 2013 ridiculed the House’s strategy of using the “Hastert rule” to pass legislation and said Speaker John Boehner will eventually have to take up the Senate’s immigration bill.[16] Reid also said Boehner’s adherence to the “Hastert Rule” requiring a majority of Republican caucus votes to move legislation is emblematic of the lower chamber’s dysfunction.[17]

The Senate passed a $1 trillion farm bill in June 2013 to fund both food stamps and farmer subsidies. States heavy in agriculture, including ones that will be competitive in 2014, may turn more favorably to Democratic candidates due to Republican opposition of the bill. The vote was 66-27, with 25 of the 27 nay votes being from Republicans. The two Democratic senators to vote against the bill were Jack Reed (RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)

Both Montana and South Dakota, with agriculture being a major industry, will reap the benefits of the bill and also have open seats due to the retirement of Max Baucus (D-MT) and Tim Johnson (D-SD). [18]

The comprehensive bill failed in the House due largely in part to the votes of 8 Democratic House members who joined the Republican majority to vote down the measure.[19] Reps. Collin Peterson, John Barrow, Sanford Bishop, Cheri Bustos, Sean Maloney, Mike McIntyre, Bill Owens, and Tim Walz were the 8 Democratic members who voted to reject the bill.[19] According to analysis by OpenSecrets, many of these Democratic members have received significant political contributions from agricultural organizations that benefit from crop insurance subsidies.[19] Five of the eight are on the House Agriculture Committee--Peterson, Bustos, Maloney, McIntyre, and Walz-- from which agribusiness firms routinely target committee members with sizable contributions.[19]

Upon arrival at the House, the bill was altered by focusing solely on the farm programs and did not include the food stamp program, which will be voted on later. The House and Senate will now need to draft a final bill through conference committee.[20]

For senators up for re-election in 2016, this will be the first election since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This may be problematic for Democratic senators who voted in favor of the bill in states where it is no longer popular. Among these senators include:

[21]

House Republicans passed a bill, the Student Success Act, on July 19, 2013 to reduce the federal role in public education and outline their vision for a national educational policy to replace the No Child Left Behind law.[22][23] The measure would give state and local governments greater powers to determine how best to improve schools and would sharply reduce federal involvement in education matters.[23]

It marks a significant departure from No Child Left Behind, the 2002 law that set federal goals for academic achievement and penalties for schools that fell short of those goals, as well as prescriptions for steps states must take to improve failing schools.[22]

No Democrats supported the bill, which passed by a 221 to 207 margin, with 12 Republicans voting with the Democrats against the measure.[24] It marked the first time in a dozen years that either chamber of Congress approved a comprehensive bill to update federal education law.[22]

The House bill is said to have no chance of moving through the Democratic-led Senate as it is written and President Obama has threatened to veto it.[23] The Senate committee overseeing education has completed work on its own measure that would give states greater flexibility in writing their own plans to improve schools. But, unlike the Republican proposal that passed the House, that bill would allow the education secretary to retain approval power over those proposals.[23] Full Senate consideration of the measure is unlikely to happen before the fall of 2014.[23]

State-by-state breakdown

United States Senate Elections Results in 2014
State Incumbent Incumbent Party Incumbent Ran? 2014 Winner Partisan switch?
Alabama Jeff Sessions Ends.png Republican Yes Jeff Sessions No
Alaska Mark Begich Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Arkansas Mark Pryor Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Tom Cotton Yes
Colorado Mark Udall Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Cory Gardner Yes
Delaware Chris Coons Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Chris Coons No
Georgia Saxby Chambliss Ends.png Republican No David Perdue No
Idaho Jim Risch Ends.png Republican Yes Jim Risch No
Illinois Richard Durbin Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Richard Durbin No
Iowa Tom Harkin Electiondot.png Democratic No Joni Ernst Yes
Kansas Pat Roberts Ends.png Republican Yes Pat Roberts No
Kentucky Mitch McConnell Ends.png Republican Yes Mitch McConnell No
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Maine Susan Collins Ends.png Republican Yes Susan Collins No
Massachusetts Ed Markey Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Ed Markey No
Michigan Carl Levin Electiondot.png Democratic No Gary Peters No
Minnesota Al Franken Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Al Franken No
Mississippi Thad Cochran Ends.png Republican Yes Thad Cochran No
Montana John Walsh Electiondot.png Democratic No Steve Daines Yes
Nebraska Mike Johanns Ends.png Republican No Ben Sasse No
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Jeanne Shaheen No
New Jersey Cory Booker Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Cory Booker No
New Mexico Tom Udall Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Tom Udall No
North Carolina Kay Hagan Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Thom Tillis Yes
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe Ends.png Republican Yes Jim Inhofe No
Oregon Jeff Merkley Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Jeff Merkley No
Rhode Island Jack Reed Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Jack Reed No
South Carolina Lindsey Graham Ends.png Republican Yes Lindsey Graham No
South Dakota Tim Johnson Electiondot.png Democratic No Mike Rounds Yes
Tennessee Lamar Alexander Ends.png Republican Yes Lamar Alexander No
Texas John Cornyn Ends.png Republican Yes John Cornyn No
Virginia Mark Warner Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Mark Warner No
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Electiondot.png Democratic No Shelley Moore Capito Yes
Wyoming Mike Enzi Ends.png Republican Yes Mike Enzi No

See also

External links

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 Politico, "Brian Schweitzer move aids GOP in battle for Senate", July 13,2013
  2. Salon.com "The House GOP can’t be beat: It’s worse than gerrymandering," January 13, 2013
  3. 3.0 3.1 Politico "Red-state Democrats raise millions" Accessed April 18, 2013
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 Politico "Senate cash dash now a marathon" Accessed August 1, 2013
  5. MSNBC, "GOP to donors: Democratic Senate majority is in serious trouble," accessed July 22, 2013
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 The New York Times, "Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?," February 20, 2013
  7. The New York Times, "Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?," February 20, 2013
  8. The New York Times, "Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?," February 20, 2013
  9. FiveThirtyEight, "FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control," March 23, 2014
  10. Fiscal Times "7 Senate Seats Most at Risk—Hint: They’re All Blue" Accessed February 15, 2013
  11. 11.0 11.1 ABC News "Who Are the Gang Of 8 in Senate Immigration Debate?" Accessed May 7, 2013
  12. 12.0 12.1 12.2 Washington Post "Gang of Eight immigration plan: Reality-based legislating" Accessed May 7, 2013
  13. 13.0 13.1 NY Times "Immigration Overhaul Passes in Senate" Accessed June 27, 2013
  14. CNN "Senate passes sweeping immigration bill" Accessed June 27, 2013
  15. Politico "Behind closed doors, Boehner pushes immigration action" Accessed July 10, 2013
  16. Politico "Harry Reid needles John Boehner over Hastert rule" Accessed July 8, 2013
  17. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named hastert
  18. The Hill, "Senate Democrats see farm bill, rural voters as key to 2014 election," Accessed June 6, 2013
  19. 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 Open Secrets "Agribusiness and the Farm Bill: Wayward Dems Benefit from Contributions" Accessed July 19, 2013
  20. USA Today, "House passes farm bill; strips out food-stamp program," accessed July 15, 2013
  21. Senate.gov "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 1st Session," accessed July 15, 2013
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 Washington Post "House GOP passes education bill to reverse No Child Left Behind" Accessed July 19, 2013
  23. 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 Yahoo News "House passes bill to replace education law" Accessed July 19, 2013
  24. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named students