United States Senate elections, 2014

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2014 U.S. Senate Elections

Election Date
November 4, 2014

U.S. Senate Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming

U.S. House Elections by State
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming

Elections Information
Election DatesVoting in Primaries
Voting on November 4, 2014
Poll Opening and Closing Times
Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 4, 2014. A total of 33 of the 100 seats will be up for regular election. Additionally, two special elections will take place in 2014 to fill vacancies that occurred in the 113th Congress (Hawaii and South Carolina).

Those elected to the U.S. Senate on November 4, 2014 in the 33 regular elections will commence serving six-year terms on January 3, 2015.

2014 marks the 100th anniversary of the direct popular election of U.S. Senators. Prior to the ratification of the Seventeenth Amendment to the United States Constitution in 1913, U.S. Senators were selected by state legislatures.

Partisan breakdown

The following table displays the partisan composition of the U.S. Senate heading into the 2014 elections.

In 2014, Republicans would need to pick up six seats currently held by Democrats in order to gain a majority.[1]

Three incumbent Democratic U.S. Senators (Max Baucus of Montana, Tim Johnson of South Dakota and Jay Rockefeller of West Virginia) have announced that they are not running for re-election in 2014, and the GOP is considered a favorite to pick up the seats they are leaving vacant.[1] Three other states with Democratic U.S. Senators up for re-election in 2014 (Alaska, Arkansas and North Carolina) are generally considered to have GOP-leaning electorates.[1]

In 2012, the Democratic Party retained control over the chamber, winning 25 of the 33 seats. With Republican candidates winning only eight seats, this was the worst performance by a major party since the 1950s.[2]


U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
Party As of September 2014 After the 2014 Election
     Democratic Party 53 Pending
     Republican Party 45 Pending
     Independent 2 Pending
Total 100 100

Open seats

As of June 6, 2013, seven senators have announced they will not be running for re-election in 2014:

  • Democratic Party 5 Democrats
  • Republican Party 2 Republicans
Name:Party:Current office:
Carl LevinElectiondot.png Democratic Michigan
Jay RockefellerElectiondot.png Democratic West Virginia
John WalshElectiondot.png Democratic Montana
Mike JohannsEnds.png Republican Nebraska
Saxby ChamblissEnds.png Republican Georgia
Tim JohnsonElectiondot.png Democratic South Dakota
Tom HarkinElectiondot.png Democratic Iowa

Campaign finance

According to an April 2013 Politico report, incumbent Democrats in red states raised "millions" in the first three months of 2013.[3] The candidates highlighted in the article were:

  • Democratic Party Mary Landrieu (LA) had raised $1.2 million and had $3.5 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Mark Pryor (AK) had raised $1.9 million and had $3.4 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Kay Hagan (NC) had raised $1.6 million and had $2.7 million cash on hand
  • Democratic Party Mark Begich (AK) had raised $948,000 and had $1.5 million cash on hand[3]

Race ratings

U.S. Senate predictions
Prediction from: Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
Cook Political Report July 1, 2013 6 5 6 3 1 3 11
Rothenberg Political Report June 28, 2013 12 1 1 5 2 2 12
Sabato's Crystal Ball June 27, 2013 7 3 3 5 2 3 11

New York Times

According to an analysis by Nate Silver of The New York Times, Democrats are looking at a tough road ahead of them in the U.S. Senate in 2014. Democrats hold 21 of the 35 seats up for election in 2014, and there are more Democratic controlled seats that lean Republican than Republican seats that lean Democratic.[4]

Additionally, Democrats could suffer from a lower voter turnout of their base due to the fact that 2014 is a midterm election and President Obama will not be on the ballot.[4]

However, Republicans need to take six seats in order to gain control of the Senate, a large gain that will be difficult to accomplish even in a favorable environment. Based on the data below, at this very early stage Republicans are expected to be able to pick up four or five seats.[4]

The table below lists the initial race ratings overview for the 35 senate seats up for election in 2014 as of February 2013.[4]

The New York Times Race Ratings -- U.S. Senate
Month Solid D Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R Solid R
February 20, 2013[5] 6 7 3 4 0 4 11
July 15, 2013[6] 8 4 3 3 0 4 13
March 23, 2014[7] 10 2 3 1 1 4 16

Most vulnerable seats

The FiscalTimes compiled a list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014. The seven included in the list are: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Going into the 2014 election, all seven seats are held by Democrats.[8]

Issues heading into 2014

[edit]

See also: Gang of Eight

Most recently, the Gang of Eight has been used in reference to immigration reform and includes eight of the most influential Senators, with four from each party.[9][10]

On May 6, 2013 Senators John McCain (R), Chuck Schumer (D), Richard Durbin (D), Robert Menendez (D), Michael Bennet (D), Lindsey Graham (R), Marco Rubio (R), and Jeff Flake (R) unveiled the outlines of their bi-partisan immigration plan.[9][10] The statement of principles was rather broad, but sets forth “four basic pillars”:

  • 1. A “tough but fair path to citizenship . . . .contingent upon securing our borders and tracking whether legal immigrants have left the country as required”;
  • 2. Reform our legal immigration system with a greater eye toward our economic needs;
  • 3. Workplace verification; and
  • 4. Setting up a system for admitting future workers (although the term “guest worker” is not used).[10]

On June 27, 2013 in a late afternoon vote, the Senate voted to approve the immigration reform bill, Senate Bill 744.[11] The bill passed by a vote of 68-to-32, with 14 Republicans voting in favor.[12][11]

Speaker John Boehner told House Republicans in a closed-door meeting on July 10, 2013 that the internal debate over immigration reform is an “important conversation," and that while the House will not take up the Senate-passed bill, members must do something to address the issue.[13]

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D) on July 8, 2013 ridiculed the House’s strategy of using the “Hastert rule” to pass legislation and said Speaker John Boehner will eventually have to take up the Senate’s immigration bill.[14] Reid also said Boehner’s adherence to the “Hastert Rule” requiring a majority of Republican caucus votes to move legislation is emblematic of the lower chamber’s dysfunction.[15]

The Senate passed a $1 trillion farm bill in June 2013 to fund both food stamps and farmer subsidies. States heavy in agriculture, including ones that will be competitive in 2014, may turn more favorably to Democratic candidates due to Republican opposition of the bill. The vote was 66-27, with 25 of the 27 nay votes being from Republicans. The two Democratic senators to vote against the bill were Jack Reed (RI) and Sheldon Whitehouse (RI)

Both [1] and Dakota, with agriculture being a major industry, will reap the benefits of the bill and also have open seats due to the retirement of Max Baucus (D-MT) and Tim Johnson (D-SD). [16]

Upon arrival at the House, the bill was altered by focusing solely on the farm programs and did not include the food stamp program, which will be voted on later. The House and Senate will now need to draft a final bill through conference committee.[17]

For senators up for re-election in 2016, this will be the first election since the passage of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. This may be problematic for Democratic senators who voted in favor of the bill in states where it is no longer popular. Among these senators include:

[18]

State-by-state breakdown

United States Senate Elections Results in 2014
State Incumbent Incumbent Party Incumbent Running? 2014 Winner Partisan switch?
Alabama Jeff Sessions Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Alaska Mark Begich Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Arkansas Mark Pryor Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Colorado Mark Udall Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Delaware Chris Coons Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Georgia Saxby Chambliss Ends.png Republican No[19] Pending Pending
Idaho Jim Risch Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Illinois Richard Durbin Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Iowa Tom Harkin Electiondot.png Democratic No[20] Pending Pending
Kansas Pat Roberts Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Kentucky Mitch McConnell Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Louisiana Mary Landrieu Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Maine Susan Collins Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Massachusetts Mo Cowan Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Michigan Carl Levin Electiondot.png Democratic No[21] Pending Pending
Minnesota Al Franken Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Mississippi Thad Cochran Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Montana Max Baucus Electiondot.png Democratic No[1] Pending Pending
Nebraska Mike Johanns Ends.png Republican No[22] Pending Pending
New Hampshire Jeanne Shaheen Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
New Jersey Frank Lautenberg Electiondot.png Democratic No[23] Pending Pending
New Mexico Tom Udall Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
North Carolina Kay Hagan Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Oklahoma Jim Inhofe Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Oregon Jeff Merkley Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
Rhode Island Jack Reed Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
South Carolina Lindsey Graham Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
South Dakota Tim Johnson Electiondot.png Democratic No[24] Pending Pending
Tennessee Lamar Alexander Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Texas John Cornyn Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending
Virginia Mark Warner Electiondot.png Democratic Yes Pending Pending
West Virginia Jay Rockefeller Electiondot.png Democratic No[25] Pending Pending
Wyoming Mike Enzi Ends.png Republican Yes Pending Pending

See also

External links

References

  1. 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 Politico, "Brian Schweitzer move aids GOP in battle for Senate", July 13,2013
  2. Salon.com "The House GOP can’t be beat: It’s worse than gerrymandering," January 13, 2013
  3. 3.0 3.1 Politico "Red-state Democrats raise millions" Accessed April 18, 2013
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 The New York Times, "Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?," February 20, 2013
  5. The New York Times, "Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?," February 20, 2013
  6. The New York Times, "Can Republicans Win the Senate in 2014?," February 20, 2013
  7. FiveThirtyEight, "FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast: GOP Is Slight Favorite in Race for Senate Control," March 23, 2014
  8. Fiscal Times "7 Senate Seats Most at Risk—Hint: They’re All Blue" Accessed February 15, 2013
  9. 9.0 9.1 ABC News "Who Are the Gang Of 8 in Senate Immigration Debate?" Accessed May 7, 2013
  10. 10.0 10.1 10.2 Washington Post "Gang of Eight immigration plan: Reality-based legislating" Accessed May 7, 2013
  11. 11.0 11.1 NY Times "Immigration Overhaul Passes in Senate" Accessed June 27, 2013
  12. CNN "Senate passes sweeping immigration bill" Accessed June 27, 2013
  13. Politico "Behind closed doors, Boehner pushes immigration action" Accessed July 10, 2013
  14. Politico "Harry Reid needles John Boehner over Hastert rule" Accessed July 8, 2013
  15. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named hastert
  16. The Hill, "Senate Democrats see farm bill, rural voters as key to 2014 election," Accessed June 6, 2013
  17. USA Today, "House passes farm bill; strips out food-stamp program," accessed July 15, 2013
  18. Senate.gov "U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 111th Congress - 1st Session," accessed July 15, 2013
  19. Washington Post "Saxby Chambliss retiring in 2014," January 25, 2013
  20. USA Today "Iowa Sen. Harkin will not seek re-election," January 26, 2013
  21. Washington Post.com "Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) won’t seek re-election in 2014" March 8, 2013
  22. NY Times.com "Republican Senator From Nebraska Won’t Run in 2014" accessed February 18, 2013
  23. NJ.com "Frank Lautenberg will not seek re-election next year," February 14, 2013
  24. Washington Post "AP sources: South Dakota Sen. Johnson won’t seek re-election; 5th Democratic senator to retire" accessed March 28, 2013
  25. USA Today, "Rockefeller's retirement sparks battle for Senate seat," January 11, 2013