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Revision as of 10:18, 30 July 2014



CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in Alaska

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
August 19, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Pending
Incumbent prior to election:
Mark Begich Democratic Party
Mark Begich.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[2]


Other Senate Elections
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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Alaska.png
Voters in Alaska will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.

Incumbent Mark Begich holds one of the most vulnerable Senate seats going into the 2014 election. He has only served one term in the Senate and is a Democrat seeking re-election in a red state. This, combined with the unpopularity of the Affordable Care Act and Begich's support for it, makes this race a toss-up.[3]

Four Republican candidates have stepped up to challenge Begich: Lt. Gov Mead Treadwell, former Commissioner of Natural Resources Daniel S. Sullivan, Joe Miller and John Jaramillo. As of May 2014, Sullivan appears to be the favorite in the Republican primary. He leads the other Republican candidates in both fundraising and polls.

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
June 2, 2014
August 19, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Alaska is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Parties decide who may vote in their primary election. The Alaska Democratic Party, Alaska Libertarian Party and Alaskan Independence Party allow any registered voters. The Alaska Republican Party allows only registered Republicans, nonpartisan or undeclared voters.[4]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by July 20, 2014.[5] For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 5, 2014.[6]

See also: Alaska elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Mark Begich (D). Begich was first elected in 2008.

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Mark Begich
Republican Party Dan Sullivan
Libertarian Party Mark Fish
Independent Ted Gianoutsos
Independent Sid Hill (Write-in)


August 19, 2014, primary results
Democratic PartyLibertarian PartyLimeslashed.png ADL Primary[7]

Democratic Party Mark Begich - Incumbent Approveda
Democratic Party William Bryk
Libertarian Party Mark Fish
Libertarian Party Scott Kohlhaas
Libertarian Party Thom Walker Approveda
Limeslashed.png Zachary Kile (Alaskan Independence Party)
Limeslashed.png Vic Kohring (Alaskan Independence Party) Approveda

Republican Party Republican Primary

Independent Unaffiliated candidates

Withdrew

Limeslashed.png Vic Kohring - Kohring withdrew in early September and endorsed Dan Sullivan[8]
Libertarian Party Thom Walker - Walker withdrew from the race after winning the primary. He was replaced by Mark Fish on the general election ballot.[9]

Rumored but did not run

Race background

Incumbent Mark Begich is a Democratic senator in a red state, making his seat one of the most vulnerable in 2014. The unpopularity of President Obama's healthcare mandate, combined with its poor implementation thus far, is likely to be a major issue that Begich will have to overcome in order to win re-election.

Dan Sullivan is the Republican frontrunner in the race as of May 2014. He had nearly $2 million available as of the FEC's April Quarterly, compared to Miller's $300,000 and Treadwell's $142,000.[10][11][12] Additionally, polling thus far has shown Sullivan leading the Republican field.

Campaign spending

Put Alaska First, a super PAC that supports incumbent Mark Begich, announced plans to buy over $4 million in ads prior to the general election.[13] In response to this news, a number of Republican groups reserved airtime following the primary. Challenger Dan Sullivan bought $480,000 in ads from September 23 through November 4.[14] American Crossroads is reserving $5.5 million in ads this fall.[15] The National Republican Senatorial Committee also reserved $2.2 million in ads.

Third-party candidates

Third-party candidates are likely to play a large role in this election. In 2010 and 2008, a candidate won election to the U.S. Senate without a majority of the votes. Mark Begich defeated incumbent Ted Stevens (R) to win the seat in 2008 by 1.3 percent, while third-party candidates took in over 5 percent of the vote. These candidates may be instrumental in Begich's re-election efforts, as Libertarian candidates tend to siphon off many more Republican votes than Democratic ones.[16]

Race ratings

Most vulnerable seats

The Fiscal Times compiled a list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014. The seven included in the list are: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Going into the 2014 election, all seven seats are held by Democrats.[3]

Democratic incumbent Mark Begich defeated Ted Stevens in 2008 to win the seat. However, the potential loss of jobs at Eielson Air Force Base near Fairbanks could cause Begich to take a hit in his bid for re-election.[3]

Early polling indicated that Gov. Sean Parnell (R) could have been Begich’s strongest opponent, but Parnell decided not to enter the race. The seat is considered a toss-up.[3]

Washington Post top 10 races

According to an analysis by The Washington Post, the U.S. Senate election in Alaska is considered one of the top 10 Senate races of 2014. When Alaska attorney general Dan Sullivan entered the race in late 2013, the Republican primary field became even more murky.[17]

Media

Mark Begich released a radio ad on August 19, 2013, highlighting his opposition to the No Child Left Behind Act. The ad states that the No Child Left Behind Act does not work with the diversity of Alaska's schools.[18]

Dan Sullivan

Supporting


Ad in which Condoleezza Rice defends Dan Sullivan

Sullivan for U.S. Senate: "Service"

Sullivan for U.S. Senate: "Big Heart"

Sullivan for U.S. Senate: "Cheap Talk"

Sullivan for U.S. Senate: "Basin"

Alaska's Energy, America's Values ad supporting Sullivan in the primary

Opposing

Put Alaska First released four ads attacking Dan Sullivan.[19] VoteVets.org also released an ad attacking Sullivan for not protecting the rights of Alaskans.[20]


Put Alaska First - Sullivan's Real Home

Put Alaska First - Lost

Put Alaska First ad attacking the Koch brothers

Put Alaska First - Never Forget

VoteVets.org ad attacking Sullivan

Mark Begich

Supporting


Road -- Mark Begich for U.S. Senate

Put Alaska First ad supporting Obamacare

Mark Begich - Polar Ice

Mark Begich - Clinic

Begich campaign ad describing how he and Sen. Lisa Murkowski are a "Great Team"

Opposing

Americans for Prosperity released an ad attacking Begich for not keeping his word.[21] The American Energy Alliance also released an attack ad targeting Begich for supporting the Carbon Tax.[22]


Senator Begich Needs to Keep His Word

American Energy Alliance ad attacking Begich

Key votes

Below are important votes the current incumbent cast during the 113th Congress.

Government shutdown

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

Voted "Yes" During the shutdown in October 2013, the Senate rejected, down party lines, every House-originated bill that stripped the budget of funding for the Affordable Care Act. A deal was reached late on October 16, 2013, just hours before the debt ceiling deadline. The bill to reopen the government, H.R. 2775, lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funded the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.[23] The final vote on H.R. 2775 was 81-18, with all 18 votes against the bill from Republican members. Mark Begich voted with the Democratic Party for the bill.[24]

Endorsements

Governor Sean Parnell decided to stay neutral in the Republican primary and did not endorse either his lieutenant governor, Mead Treadwell, or his former director of natural resources, Dan Sullivan. He stated, "I think both could be excellent U.S. senators, so I’ve chosen to stay out of taking an official position."[25]

Joe Miller

  • Miller received the endorsements of two of the most prominent groups which advocate for Second Amendment rights, The Gun Owners of America’s Political Victory Fund and the National Association for Gun Rights PAC.[26]
  • Alaska Right to Life PAC: "The pro-life position Joe Miller takes isn’t merely a common political platitude, but is centered in the core of who he is. Joe will be a champion for the pro-life cause in Washington and is exactly the caliber of man we need representing Alaska in the US Senate. Alaska Right to Life’s Political Action Committee is proud to endorse him."[27]

Dan Sullivan

Sullivan was endorsed by the Club for Growth PAC in the Republican primary. Club President Chris Chocola said, "Dan Sullivan is a fiscal conservative with a stellar track record in Alaska and we strongly endorse him for the United States Senate. Dan has fought for pro-growth tax reform, taken on ObamaCare in court, and beaten back federal overreach by Obama’s EPA. In the Senate, Dan Sullivan will continue the fight for economic freedom and we can’t wait to see him help deliver for America the kinds of pro-growth policies he’s already delivered for Alaska."[28]

Mead Treadwell

  • RedState Editor-in-Chief Erick Erickson: Treadwell "is better on the stand your ground law in Alaska than his opponent."[29]

Polls

Republican primary

Republican primary
Poll Joe Miller Daniel S. SullivanMead TreadwellOther/UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (July 31-August 3, 2014)
20%35%29%16%+/-5.3337
Moore Information (July 29-31, 2014)
16%35%27%22%+/-5.5375
Mark Hellenthal (June 17-28, 2014)
21%35%31%13%+/-4.9392
Moore Information - for Dan Sullivan (June 16-18, 2014)
17%42%25%16%+/-4500
Dittman Research (May 27-29, 2014)
12%37%35%16%+/-4.4500
Public Policy Polling (May 8-11, 2014)
14%40%26%20%+/-5.5313
Dan Sullivan internal poll (April 27-28, 2014)
12%38%22%28%+/-4500
Public Policy Polling (January 30-February 1, 2014)
20%30%25%23%+/-4.7442
AVERAGES 16.5% 36.5% 27.5% 19.25% +/-4.79 419.88
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Begich vs. Treadwell

Mark Begich vs. Mead Treadwell
Poll Mark Begich Mead TreadwellNot Sure/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (May 8-11, 2014)
41%33%26%+/-4.1582
Harper Polling (September 24-25, 2013)
43%42%15%+/-3.62731
AVERAGES 42% 37.5% 20.5% +/-3.86 656.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Mark Begich vs. Mead Treadwell/3rd Party candidates
Poll Mark Begich Mead TreadwellZachary KileTed GianoutsosSidney HillNot SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (January 30-February 1, 2014)
43%37%5%1%1%13%+/-3.4850
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Begich vs. Sullivan

Mark Begich vs. Dan Sullivan
Poll Mark Begich Dan SullivanNot Sure/OtherMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (May 8-11, 2014)
43%37%20%+/-4.1582
Dan Sullivan internal poll (April 27-28, 2014)
44%42%14%+/-4500
Harper Polling (September 24-25, 2013)
43%41%16%+/-3.62731
AVERAGES 43.33% 40% 16.67% +/-3.91 604.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Mark Begich vs. Dan Sullivan/3rd Party candidates
Poll Mark Begich Dan SullivanZachary KileTed GianoutsosSidney HillNot SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (January 30-February 1, 2014)
41%37%6%1%2%13%+/-3.4850
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Begich vs. Miller

Mark Begich vs. Joe Miller
Poll Mark Begich Joe MillerNot SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (May 8-11, 2014)
43%27%30%+/-4.1582
Harper Polling (September 24-25, 2013)
55%28%18%+/-3.62731
AVERAGES 49% 27.5% 24% +/-3.86 656.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Mark Begich vs. Joe Miller/3rd Party candidates
Poll Mark Begich Joe MillerZachary KileTed GianoutsosSidney HillNot SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (January 30-February 1, 2014)
45%25%5%1%2%21%+/-3.4850
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign contributions

Candidate ballot accecss
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Mark Begich

Mark Begich (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[30]April 15, 2013$952,260.37$947,943.67$(382,271.15)$1,517,932.89
July Quarterly[31]July 15, 2013$1,517,932.89$993,064.55$(462,594.51)$2,048,402.93
October Quarterly[32]October 15, 2013$2,048,402.93$813,189.58$(428,646.86)$2,432,945.65
Year-End[33]January 31, 2014$2,432,945$849,363$(473,012)$2,809,296
April Quarterly[34]April 15, 2014$2,809,281$1,045,615$(1,035,974)$2,819,472
July Quarterly[35]July 15, 2014$2,819,472$1,268,202$(1,933,882)$2,153,792
Pre-Primary[36]August 4, 2014$2,153,792$423,046$(515,394)$2,061,443
October Quarterly[37]October 12, 2014$2,061,443$1,515,166$(2,380,003)$1,196,607
Running totals
$7,855,589.8$(7,611,777.52)

Mead Treadwell

Mead Treadwell (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[38]July 15, 2013$10,000.00$10,300.00$(11,660.43)$8,639.57
July Quarterly[39]July 15, 2013$8,639.57$170,270.51$(48,560.77)$130,349.31
October Quarterly[40]October 15, 2013$130,349.31$196,307.58$(171,769.14)$154,887.75
Year-End[41]January 29, 2014$154,887$229,056$(289,140)$94,803
April Quarterly[42]April 15, 2014$94,803$344,507$(262,043)$177,268
July Quarterly[43]July 16, 2014$177,268$164,468$(174,688)$167,047
Pre-Primary[44]August 5, 2014$167,047$92,072$(117,376)$141,743
Running totals
$1,206,981.09$(1,075,237.34)
**As of the Pre-Primary Report, Treadwell's campaign committee owed $248,445 in outstanding loans to Mead Treadwell.

Joe Miller

Joe Miller (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[45]April 15, 2013$426,783.51$47.14$(850.00)$425,980.65
July Quarterly[46]July 15, 2013$425,980.65$18,394.34$(126,920.07)$317,454.92
October Quarterly[47]October 15, 2013$317,454.92$13,691.00$(43,440.49)$287,705.43
Year-End[48]January 31, 2014$287,705$30,490$(86,489)$231,705
April Quarterly[49]April 15, 2014$231,705$101,400$(37,751)$295,354
July Quarterly[50]July 15, 2014$295,354$129,504$(121,297)$303,561
Pre-Primary[51]August 4, 2014$303,561$34,255$(149,580)$188,236
Running totals
$327,781.48$(566,327.56)

Daniel Sullivan

Daniel Sullivan (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[52]January 31, 2014$0$1,276,151$(158,723)$1,117,427
April Quarterly[53]April 14, 2014$1,117,427$1,365,035$(549,140)$1,933,335
July Quarterly[54]July 15, 2014$1,933,335$1,162,842$(1,385,667)$1,710,510
Pre-Primary[55]August 4, 2014$1,710,510$264,329$(981,916)$992,924
October Quarterly[56]October 15, 2014$992,924$2,547,472$(2,378,457)$1,161,938
Running totals
$6,615,829$(5,453,903)

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Lisa Murkowski won re-election to the United States Senate. She defeated Joe Miller (R), Scott T. McAdams (D), Frederick Haase (L), Tim Carter (Nonaffiliated) and Ted Gianoutsos (Nonaffiliated) in the general election.[57]

U.S. Senate, Alaska General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Write-in Green check mark transparent.pngLisa Murkowski incumbent 39.7% 101,091
     Republican Joe Miller 35.6% 90,839
     Democratic Scott T. McAdams 23.6% 60,045
     Libertarian Frederick Haase 0.6% 1,459
     Nonaffiliated Tim Carter 0.4% 927
     Nonaffiliated Ted Gianoutsos 0.2% 458
Total Votes 254,819

2008

On November 4, 2008, Mark Begich won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Ted Stevens (R), Bob Bird (Alaskan Independence), Frederick Haase (L) and Ted Gianoutsos (NPA) in the general election.[58]

U.S. Senate, Alaska General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMark Begich 47.8% 151,767
     Republican Ted Stevens incumbent 46.5% 147,814
     Alaskan Independence Bob Bird 4.2% 13,197
     Libertarian Frederick Haase 0.8% 2,483
     No Party Affiliation Ted Gianoutsos 0.4% 1,385
     N/A Write-in 0.3% 1,077
Total Votes 317,723

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 SENATE RACE RATINGS FOR JULY 18, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed July 28, 2014
  3. 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 Fiscal Times, "7 Senate Seats Most at Risk—Hint: They’re All Blue" accessed February 15, 2013
  4. State of Alaska Division of Elections Website, "Primary Election Information," accessed January 2, 2014
  5. DMV.org, "Voter Registration in Alaska," accessed January 3, 2014
  6. State of Alaska Division of Elections "2014 Election Dates and Hours," accessed February 19, 2014
  7. In Alaska, candidates from the Democratic, Libertarian and Alaskan Independence parties all appear on the same ballot. The candidate who receives the most votes from each party then advances to the general election.
  8. Newsminer.com, "Independence party candidate exits US Senate race," September 3, 2014
  9. Alaska Dispatch News, "Alaska Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate withdraws," August 27, 2014
  10. Federal Election Commission, "Daniel Sullivan April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  11. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  12. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  13. Alaska Dispatch, "Begich super PAC will drop more than $4M on campaign ads," accessed May 19, 2014
  14. The Washington Post, "READ IN: Friday, May 16, 2014: No earmarks in WRRDA, Ernst leads Iowa field, Crossroads lands in Alaska, White House has ‘commitment’ from Boehner, and Biden’s book royalties," May 16, 2014
  15. Politico Pro, "Campaigns," accessed May 19, 2014
  16. Alaska Dispatch News, "Third-party candidates could tip scales in Alaska's US Senate race," July 10, 2014
  17. The Washington Post, "The Fix’s top 10 Senate races of 2014," accessed December 10, 2013
  18. Politico, "Mark Begich launching ad on education," August 19, 2013
  19. YouTube, "Put Alaska First - Sullivan's Real Home," accessed February 13, 2014
  20. Youtube, ""Oath" - VoteVets.org Ad In Alaska," accessed July 2, 2014
  21. YouTube, "Senator Begich Needs to Keep His Word," accessed February 24, 2014
  22. YouTube, "Two Begiches," accessed July 2, 2014
  23. The Washington Post, "Reid, McConnell propose bipartisan Senate bill to end shutdown, extend borrowing," accessed October 16, 2013
  24. Senate.gov, "H.R. 2775 As Amended," accessed October 31, 2013
  25. Politico, "Parnell staying out of Alaska Sen. race," November 21, 2013
  26. Delta News Web, "National Association for Gun Rights PAC Endorses Joe Miller for U.S. Senate," March 18, 2014
  27. People's Pundit Daily, "Alaska Senate Candidate Joe Miller Picks Up Key Endorsement From Pro-Life Group," April 17, 2014
  28. Club for Growth, "Club for Growth PAC Endorses Dan Sullivan For U.S. Senate," March 12, 2014
  29. Treadwell for United States Senate, "Red State’S Erickson Endorses Mead Treadwell," June 18, 2014
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich April Quarterly," accessed July 22, 2013
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich July Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich October Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich Year-End," accessed February 14, 2014
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich Pre-Primary," accessed August 12, 2014
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Mark Begich October Quarterly," accessed October 24, 2014
  38. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  39. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  40. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell October Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  41. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell Year-End," accessed February 14, 2014
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  43. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell July Quarterly," accessed July 25, 2014
  44. Federal Election Commission, "Mead Treadwell Pre-Primary," accessed August 12, 2014
  45. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller April Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  46. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller July Quarterly," accessed July 28, 2013
  47. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller October Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  48. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller Year-End," accessed February 14, 2014
  49. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  50. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller July Quarterly," accessed July 25, 2014
  51. Federal Election Commission, "Joe Miller Pre-Primary," accessed August 12, 2014
  52. Federal Election Commission, "Daniel Sullivan Year-End," accessed February 14, 2014
  53. Federal Election Commission, "Daniel Sullivan April Quarterly," accessed April 29, 2014
  54. Federal Election Commission, "Daniel Sullivan July Quarterly," accessed July 25, 2014
  55. Federal Election Commission, "Daniel Sullivan Pre-Primary," accessed August 12, 2014
  56. Federal Election Commission, "Daniel Sullivan October Quarterly," accessed October 24, 2014
  57. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  58. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013