Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections in Kentucky, 2014"

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
(Senate Conservatives Fund)
(Madison Project radio ad against McConnell)
Line 169: Line 169:
  
 
“For years, [[Mitch McConnell|McConnell]] has succeeded in playing the old Washington double-game of talking the conservative talk at home, while undermining conservatives in the [[United States Senate|Senate]],” the Madison Project’s Drew Ryun said in a statement.<ref name="madison"/>
 
“For years, [[Mitch McConnell|McConnell]] has succeeded in playing the old Washington double-game of talking the conservative talk at home, while undermining conservatives in the [[United States Senate|Senate]],” the Madison Project’s Drew Ryun said in a statement.<ref name="madison"/>
 +
 +
In response, [[Mitch McConnell|McConnell's]] released a statement.<ref name="moore">[http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/26/1233980/-McConnell-campaign-unloads-on-Bevin-after-conservative-group-says-Mitch-is-too-liberal ''Daily Kos,'' "McConnell campaign unloads on Bevin after conservative group says Mitch is too liberal," accessed August 27, 2013]</ref> "All you need to know about this group is that they're supporting a tax delinquent bailout artist who lies on his resume over the most conservative [[Republican]] Leader in modern history," says [[Mitch McConnell|McConnell]] campaign spokeswoman Allison Moore. "Apparently [[Matt Bevin|Matt Bailout Bevin]] has a small cadre of fringe friends in Washington who have concluded that conservative governance isn't half as important as making money off his quixotic Senate campaign even though polling shows [[Mitch McConnell|Mitch]] winning by a staggering 68-21 margin."<ref name="moore"/>
  
 
=Polls=
 
=Polls=

Revision as of 08:27, 27 August 2013


CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in Kentucky

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
May 20, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Pending
Incumbent prior to election:
Mitch McConnell Republican Party
Mitch McConnell.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[2]


Other Senate Elections
Alabama • Alaska • Arkansas • Colorado • Delaware • Georgia • Idaho • Illinois • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Montana • Nebraska • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oklahoma • Oregon • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Virginia • West Virginia • Wyoming

2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Kentucky.png
Voters in Kentucky will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 4, 2014 elections.

Kentucky is one of 12 states to use a strictly closed primary process, in which the selection of a party's candidates in an election is limited to registered party members.[3][4][5]

The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Mitch McConnell (R). McConnell was first elected in 1984.

Kentucky is a solidly Republican state.[6]

Candidates

Note: Prior to the signature filing deadline, candidates will be added when Ballotpedia writers come across declared candidates. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

Potential candidates

Declined to run

Race background

In 2008, Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term and became Kentucky's longest serving senator.[18] McConnell spent approximately $20 million on his last election, beating Democrat Bruce Lunsford, a Kentucky businessman, by 6 percentage points.[18]

McConnell served as the Republican Party Whip from 2005 to 2007, before he took on the role of Senate Minority Leader in 2007.[19]

Low approval ratings and a primary challenge from tea-party backed Matt Bevin make McConell a vulnerable incumbent in 2014.[20] Also troubling for McConnell is the lack of backing from national GOP candidates.[21]

If Republicans are able to pick up the necessary six seats for a majority in 2014, McConnell presumably would take over as the new Senate Majority Leader.


[edit]

Media


McConnell's campaign released a new ad pointing to a series of “dirty” attacks by Democratic outside groups on April 18th, 2013 titled "How Dirty"

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership released an ad run on June 26, "Rubber Stamp"

On April 18, 2013, McConnell's campaign released a new ad pointing to a series of “dirty” attacks by Democratic outside groups.[22] It’s the second time McConnell’s campaign has launched an ad playing up the victim angle.[22] After the Progress Kentucky super PAC got in trouble for racially insensitive tweets about McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, his campaign launched another ad featuring Chao.[22]

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, a super PAC backing Mitch McConnell’s re-election bid, launched a round of TV ads on June 25, 2013 aimed at dissuading Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes from entering the race.[23][24] Grimes announced her candidacy on July 1, 2013.[25]


In a Web video posted on July 2, 2013, McConnell's campaign took aim at Grimes by making her name the punchline of the video. The nearly two-minute video asks, "What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?"

McConnell's video responds to its own question with these zingers: "Not ready for prime time," "Sticks to the party line," and "Left wing mime."[26]


McConnell's mocking ad, "What Rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?"

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership ad, "Whatever"

The video is a reminder of Grimes' own ad from her successful 2011 race in Kentucky that featured her two grandmothers, Elsie Case and Thelma Lundergan McHugh.[26] In that ad, the grandmas are seen typing away at laptops trying to come up with ads for the candidate. They introduce Grimes by her full name and joked, "It's a long name." At the end of the 2011 ad, Case — Grimes' maternal grandmother — asks, "What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?"[26]

Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee

It was announced on July 19, 2013 that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee made an online ad buy against McConnell.[27] The ads aimed at hitting McConnell as the “guardian of gridlock,” pointing to the Senate GOP’s frequent filibuster threats.[27]

That same day pro-McConnell Super PAC Kentuckians for Strong Leadership launched a new ad featuring a clip of Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) saying she agrees with the national Democratic Party’s platform.[27]


Republican challenger announces candidacy

The same day that McConnell's primary challenger Matt Bevin was set to officially announce his candidacy, McConnell’s campaign announced a new ad buy labeling his primary opponent “Bailout Bevin” and noting that Bevin’s business, which is based in Connecticut, accepted $200,000 in bailout funds.[28]


McConnell's July 24, 2013 ad, "Bailout Bevin"

Matt Bevin's first ad, released July 24, 2013, "Meet Matt Bevin"

In response to McConnell’s ad, the Senate Conservatives Fund, which hasn’t backed Bevin but has suggested McConnell should step aside in favor of a more electable candidate, went after McConnell saying, “It’s the height of hypocrisy for Mitch McConnell to attack anyone on bailouts when he was the one who voted with Barack Obama to bail out the Wall Street banks.”[28]

Bevin released his own ad on the day he announced his official candidacy. The ad, "Meet Matt Bevin," began by Bevin saying, “Mitch McConnell has had a long career in politics. But after 30 years in politics, is his leadership really the best that we can do? America deserves more than failed leadership. We can do better.”[29]

A narrator chimes in, saying that “McConnell has voted for higher taxes, bailouts, debt ceiling increases, congressional pay raises, and liberal judges.” Bevin, on the other hand, is described as a “successful businessman, father of nine, veteran, conservative, Republican.”[29]

Senate Majority PAC

Senate Majority PAC launched its second ad of the campaign, as part of its pledge to meet a pro-McConnell super-PAC ad-for-ad.[30] The 30-second ad titled "Guardian of Gridlock" started running across the state on July 23, 2013 at a cost of about $270,000. It is part of the Senate Majority PAC's "30 Years is Too Long Campaign" against McConnell that started in June 2013.[31] The ad hammers McConnell for calling himself "the guardian of gridlock," and closely echoes attacks from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has launched its own ongoing campaign hitting McConnell for congressional inactivity.[30]


Senate Majority PAC's July 23, 2013 ad, "Guardian of Gridlock."

Alison Lundergan Grimes July 25, 2013, ad, "The Campaign Begins"

"He calls himself the 'guardian of gridlock,' grinding the Senate to a halt even when it hurts Kentucky," a narrator says in the ad.[30]

Alison Lundergan Grimes

Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes signaled the beginning of her campaign on July 25, 2013, releasing a video that invited voters to a rally in Lexington and warning Sen. Mitch McConnell that “I don’t scare easy.”[32][33][34][35]

The video, which runs nearly 4 minutes, is filmed in the same room where Grimes recorded an ad during her 2011 Secretary of State race that featured her two grandmothers writing a “commercial” for her campaign and brought her national attention. In that ad, one of her grandmothers asks, “What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes?”[32] Since her July 1 announcement, McConnell’s campaign and the Kentucky GOP have accused her of going into hiding and repeatedly asked, “Where’s Alison?”[32] Grimes responds in the ad saying, "Your campaign wants to play silly games about where I am and where I stand. Well I'm right here in Kentucky senator, where I'll be holding you accountable."[36]

McConnell v. Bevin

McConnell's campaign launched its second ad against primary challenger Matt Bevin on August 5, 2013.[37] The ad hits Bevin for tax issues and labels him “Bailout Bevin.”[37][38][39][40]


Matt Bevin's August 7, 2013, ad, "Finest"

McConnell's second ad against Matt Bevin, "Delinquent"

Bevin's campaign was dismissive of the ad, characterizing it as an attempt to distract from McConnell's record. Bevin spokeswoman Sarah Durand said that the attacks on Bevin's work with his company reflected that McConnell was "out of touch" with Americans.[38]

"If Mitch McConnell had ever run a business or worked in the private sector, he would recognize what a commendable thing Matt did: He took a nearly bankrupt company, turned it around, saved American jobs and kept a historic bell manufacturing company in America. Sadly, Mitch McConnell is so out of touch, he doesn’t even understand that saving American jobs is a good thing," Durand said.[38]

McConnell’s campaign began running ads against Bevin before he even launched his campaign.[37]

In response, Bevin launched his own attack ad on August 7, 2013, calling McConnell's attacks towards him hypocritical in light of McConnell's support of taxpayer bailouts for Wall Street.[41][42]

The 30-second TV spot will run statewide, according to Bevin's campaign. The amount of the ad buy was not disclosed. The ad's narrator says that after voting for bailouts over his 30 years in the Senate, "slinging mud is all Sen. McConnell has left."[41][42]

On August 12, 2013, McConnell released a 75-second YouTube video built around footage of Matt Bevin telling Democrats during the Fancy Farm picnic in early August 2013, “We’re on the same team here, I’ll tell you that much.”[43]

The video has no narrator. The only voice that appears is Bevin’s, telling Democrats on a loop that “we’re on the same team” as a series of text appears on screen.[43]

The video also highlights a story noting that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has been highlighting Bevin’s candidacy, “trying to make trouble” for McConnell.[43]

The McConnell campaign again highlights Bevin working with Sen. Richard Blumenthal, saying, “When Bevin’s Connecticut company needed help, he turned to Washington’s most liberal senator…And then, Bevin’s companies got $200,000 in taxpayer bailouts.”[43]


American Chemistry Council's August 2013 ad, "Support for Sen. Mitch McConnell"

McConnell's Youtube ad against Matt Bevin, "Unreliable"

The video, which McConnell's campaign officials have said they might turn into a television ad, ends by saying that “Bailout Bevin [is] not a Kentucky conservative.”[43]

Bevin's campaign said McConnell is trying to distract from his own record. “Mitch McConnell can make all the misleading web videos in the world, but it doesn’t change the fact that he voted for amnesty three times, the Wall Street bailout, the Fannie and Freddie bailout, debt limit increases, massive tax increases, and pay raises for himself, and now, he’s refusing to defund Obamacare,” Bevin spokeswoman Sarah Durand said.[43]

American Chemistry Council

The American Chemistry Council (ACC) announced on August 13, 2013, that the group is spending $400,000 on commercials boosting Mitch McConnell.[44]

A spokeswoman for the Washington-based association of chemical companies confirms that they are making a six-figure buy in August 2013 to run issue ads highlighting the Republican’s “work to promote economic growth and policies that are important to American manufacturers.”[44] In the ads, McConnell is presented as a strong supporter of new energy production, small business and family farms.[44]

“These days in Washington, there are people who like to talk, and leaders like Mitch McConnell who know how to get results,” the narrator says. “Less government, more jobs. Call and tell Mitch McConnell his leadership in Washington is making a difference here at home.”[44]

The group, led by former Rep. Cal Dooley, is running similar ads this summer in support of Sen. Kay Hagan, Sen. Tom Udall, Rep. Fred Upton and Rep. Mike Simpson.[44]


Mitch McConnell's August 20, 2013, ad against Matt Bevin, "M.I.T."

The Senate Conservatives Fund ad, "Stop Amnesty."

The McConnell spot is running in the Louisville, Lexington and Bowling Green markets.[44]

Senate Conservatives Fund

The Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF), founded by former Sen. Jim DeMint, joined the primary campaign against Mitch McConnell.[45] On August 16, 2013, SCF announced they were planning a "statewide media campaign in Kentucky" to make McConnell "feel the heat" and support a conservative effort to defund Obamacare.[45]

"Mitch McConnell is telling people he opposes Obamacare while he refuses to oppose its funding. We can't let him have it both ways. If he funds it, he's for it," said Matt Hoskins, the executive director of the Senate Conservatives Fund, in an email seeking funds for the campaign.[45]

SCF reportedly also purchased $50,000 of national radio and television ad time to attack McConnell for his lack of fortitude on border security and for supporting "amnesty" for undocumented immigrants. The ad asks viewers to call McConnell and urge him him to kill the legislation. "We don't want excuses," reads a statement from the group. "We want results."[46] It has also launched a petition at StopAmnestyMitch.com.[46]

The SCF announced on August 26, 2013, that it is spending nearly $50,000 on a 60-second commercial that will begin airing on August 27, 2013, in Kentucky, where McConnell is locked in a tough race for a sixth term.[47]

"Republicans in Congress can stop Obamacare by refusing to fund it, but Senator Mitch McConnell refuses to lead the fight," says the ad.[47][48]

"The Obamacare bill stinks, and holding your nose won't make it any better," the commercial says, referring to an incident earlier in August 2013.[47][48]

In August 2013 the audio of a January 9, 2013 telephone conversation revealed that Jesse Benton, McConnell's campaign manager, said he was "holding my nose" while working for the candidate. Benton later said in a statement that he believes in McConnell and is 100 percent committed to his re-election.[47]

The SCF has not endorsed in the Kentucky GOP primary, but in a statement in July 2013, executive director Matt Hoskins said the group was open to backing Bevin.[48][47] The group said it was "waiting to see if the grassroots in Kentucky unite" behind Bevin.[47]

Massachusetts Institute of Technology controversy


The Madison Project's first radio ad, "Would a Conservative?"

McConnell launched a TV ad buy against primary challenger Matt Bevin that “will be in the six-figure range,” according to his campaign on August 20, 2013. Back in March 2013, reports circulated that Bevin had “come under scrutiny for claiming educational ties to the prestigious Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Bevin’s LinkedIn page indicated he was an MIT graduate or graduate of an MIT-affiliated program but school officials say the three-week seminar he attended has no formal link to the school."[49][50]The 30-second ad references the report as a female narrator asks, “Can you believe Bailout Bevin on anything?”[49] Bevin's LinkedIn page has been revised to clarify that he did not graduate from MIT or an MIT-affiliated program.[50]

Madison Project radio ad against McConnell

The conservative group, the Madison Project, launched its first radio ad criticizing Mitch McConnell for his voting record on August 26, 2013.[51][52]

Led by former Rep. Jim Ryun (R), the Madison Project endorsed McConnell’s primary challenger Matt Bevin in July 2013, and is running what they say will be the first of many statewide ads against the incumbent.[51]

The ad is a relatively small $30,000 ad buy, but the 60-second radio ad slams McConnell’s votes on immigration reform, Wall Street bailouts and the debt ceiling.[51]

“For years, McConnell has succeeded in playing the old Washington double-game of talking the conservative talk at home, while undermining conservatives in the Senate,” the Madison Project’s Drew Ryun said in a statement.[51]

In response, McConnell's released a statement.[53] "All you need to know about this group is that they're supporting a tax delinquent bailout artist who lies on his resume over the most conservative Republican Leader in modern history," says McConnell campaign spokeswoman Allison Moore. "Apparently Matt Bailout Bevin has a small cadre of fringe friends in Washington who have concluded that conservative governance isn't half as important as making money off his quixotic Senate campaign even though polling shows Mitch winning by a staggering 68-21 margin."[53]

Polls

Republican Primary

Republican primary
Poll Mitch McConnell Matt BevinUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Wenzel Strategies
July 23-24, 2013
59%20%21%+/-3.9624
Voter/Consumer Research
August 18-20, 2013
68%21%8%+/-4.0600
AVERAGES 63.5% 20.5% 14.5% +/-3.95 612
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

General election

McConnell v. Grimes (May 2014 - Present)
Poll Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) Ed Marksberry (I)Mitch McConnell (R)David Patterson (L)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Mellman Group
September 4-7, 2014
43%0%42%0%15%+/-3.5800
Public Opinion Strategies
September 1-3, 2014
42%0%47%4%7%+/-4.0600
CNN/ORC
August 28-September 1, 2014
46%0%50%0%1%+/-3.51,037
Public Policy Polling
August 7-10, 2014
40%0%44%7%9%+/-3.1991
CBS/NYT/YouGov
July 5-24, 2014
46%0%50%0%2%+/-4.01,515
SurveyUSA
July 18-23, 2014
39%0%41%7%13%+/-3.7714
Gravis/Human Events
July 17-20, 2014
45%0%45%0%10%+/-3.01,054
Voter/Consumer Research
June 22-25, 2014
42%0%49%0%9%+/-3.5807
Public Policy Polling
June 20-22, 2014
48%0%46%0%6%+/-3.8682
Public Opinion Strategies
June 14-17, 2014
43%0%48%0%9%+/-3.46800
Magellan Strategies
June 4-5, 2014
49%0%46%0%5%+/-3.45808
Rasmussen Reports
May 28-29, 2014
41%0%48%0%7%+/-4.0750
Wenzel Strategies
May 23-24, 2014
44%0%47%0%8%+/-3.95608
SurveyUSA
May 14-16, 2014
43%4%42%4%7%+/-2.61,475
NBC News/Marist
April 30 - May 6, 2014
45%0%46%0%8%+/-2.02,353
AVERAGES 43.73% 0.27% 46.07% 1.47% 7.73% +/-3.44 999.6
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
McConnell v. Grimes (December 2013 - April 2014)
Poll Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) Ed Marksberry (I)Mitch McConnell (R)UndecidedSomeone elseMargin of ErrorSample Size
Hickman Analytics
April 24-30, 2014
45%0%46%9%0%+/-4.4500
Gravis Marketing/Human Events
April 15-17, 2014
36%9%43%12%0%+/-3.01,359
Kaiser Foundation
April 8-15, 2014
43%0%44%3%8%+/-4.01,026
Public Policy Polling
April 1-2, 2014
45%0%44%12%0%+/-3.8663
Wenzel Strategies
February 8-11, 2014
42%0%43%15%0%+/-3.061,002
Survey USA
January 30-February 4, 2014
47%0%42%12%0%+/-4.91,082
Rasmussen Reports
January 29-30, 2014
42%0%42%10%6%+/-4.5500
Public Policy Polling
January 24-26, 2014
44%0%45%11%0%+/-3.9640
Gravis Marketing/Human Events
January 2, 2014
37%8%42%13%0%+/-4.0683
Public Policy Polling
December 12-15, 2013
42%0%43%15%0%+/-4.21,509
AVERAGES 42.3% 1.7% 43.4% 11.2% 1.4% +/-3.98 896.4
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


McConnell v. Grimes (April 2013 - October 2013)
Poll Alison Lundergan Grimes (D) Mitch McConnell (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
DFM Research
October 21-27, 2013
40%41%19%+/-4.4600
Lake Research
Ocotber 24-29, 2013
37%37%19%+/-4.0603
Public Policy Polling
October 14-15, 2013
45%43%12%+/-2.81,193
Lake Research
August 5-15, 2013
46%40%14%+/-1.45,000
Wenzel Strategies
July 23-24, 2013
40%48%12%+/-3.9624
Melman Group
July 20-24, 2013
44%42%14%+/-3.9750
Public Policy Polling
July 19-21, 2013
45%44%11%+/-2.81,210
Wenzel Strategies
June 1-2, 2013
40%47%14%+/-3.9623
Public Policy Polling
May 23-34, 2013
45%45%10%+/-4.2556
Public Policy Polling
April 4-7, 2013
41%45%14%+/-5.51,052
AVERAGES 42.3% 43.2% 13.9% +/-3.68 1,221.1
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was tied with Kentucky Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes according to a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling on behalf of Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC backing Democratic Senate candidates. The poll found McConnell and Grimes tied at 45 percent each.[54][55]

A poll from Wenzel Strategies conducted June 1-2, 2013 polled 623 people and found Mitch McConnell (R) ahead of Secretary of State Grimes 47 percent to 40 percent. McConnell beat former Miss America Heather French Henry 45 percent to 40 percent and beat Louisville environmental lawyer Tom Fitzgerald 46 percent to 29 percent according to the poll.[56][57]

Campaign forums

Sen. Mitch McConnell faced off against Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes at the heavily anticipated 133rd Fancy Farm political forum on August 3, 2013.[58] The candidates both spoke at the political forum that was broadcast nationwide on C-SPAN and online by Kentucky Education Television.[58]

McConnell, who spoke first, avoided direct attacks on his opponent, instead speaking in broad strokes saying, “Over the next 15 months, we are going to decide what kind of America we want … Barack Obama’s vision for America or Kentucky’s. Kentucky’s voice is the voice of opposition to the Obama agenda, and I’m proud of that. That’s why every liberal in America is out to beat us next year.”[58]

Grimes, who followed Rep. Ed Whitfield (R) on stage, took aim at McConnell, saying, “Sen. McConnell is the most unpopular Senator among Democrats but Republicans, as well...There’s a reason he’s so disliked. There is a disease of dysfunction in Washington, D.C., and after 30 years, Sen. McConnell is in the center of it. As long as he remains in D.C., D.C. will stand for dysfunctional capitol.”[58]

The event was the first public encounter between incumbent and challenger in the high-profile race and thrust the annual Fancy Farm picnic into the national spotlight.[58]

Campaign donors

Incumbent Mitch McConnell raised $2.2 million in the second quarter of 2013, growing his 2014 campaign account to $9.6 million, as of July 11, 2013.[59][27]

According to reports, in 2014 Mitch McConnell’s re-election bid may result in the first Senate contest to pass the $100 million mark.[60]

In 2008, McConnell spent slightly more than $21 million — including a $2 million personal loan — to beat Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, who pumped nearly $8.6 million of his own money into the race.[60]

In August 2013, McConnell was already ahead of his 2008 fundraising pace, having collected nearly $14 million for the 2014 election, and with $9.6 million cash-on-hand.[60] Unlike in 2008, McConnell will face a primary challenge from wealthy businessman Matt Bevin.[60] While it’s unclear how much of his own money Bevin will spend, those who have done some digging into his wealth — he had yet to file financial disclosure statements for his Senate bid as of August 2013 — believe that he has the capacity to put several million dollars into the race.[60]

McConnell allies and other Republican observers well versed in fundraising estimate that Sen. McConnell will end up raising and spending somewhere between $30 million and $35 million battling Bevin in the primary and Grimes in the general election.[60]

Pro McConnell super PAC

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, a pro-Mitch McConnell super PAC, raised $1.2 million between the time it was created in April 2013 through July 2013, bringing in donations from big names such as Donald Trump and deceased megadonor Bob Perry.[61]

Trump contributed $50,000 and Perry, who died in April 2013, gave $100,000, according to reports filed July 28, 2013, with the Federal Election Commission. “We looked into this and found a clerical error in the report,” Caleb Crosby, treasurer for the group, said. “Our records reflect that we actually received the check on April 12. We have amended the report to reflect the correct information.”

Other major Republican donors who gave to the super PAC include John Childs, a private-equity investor who gave $4.2 million in the 2012 election cycle, and Philip Geier, who gave nearly $2 million in 2012.[61]

The super PAC, as of July 2013, spent $370,000, most of which went toward media placement to benefit McConnell. At the end of July 2013, it had more than $800,000 in the bank.[61]

Progress Kentucky super PAC shuts down

The controversial super PAC Progress Kentucky, whose officials are being investigated for bugging Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office, announced in August 2013 that the Federal Election Commission approved its request to shut down.[62]

The group — which attracted plenty of national media attention — ultimately failed to raise enough campaign cash to be a viable force in the Kentucky Senate race.[62]

One of the group’s officials came under investigation after reportedly bragging to a local Democratic official that the group had bugged McConnell's office.[62] A tape of a secret strategy session where McConnell and his operatives discussed potential opponents was published in Mother Jones in early 2013.[62]

The bugging was only the latest controversy from the group. The super PAC first attracted national attention for a racially charged tweet about McConnell’s wife Elaine Chao.[62] The tweet alleged that Chao, who is Chinese-American, was advising McConnell on the outsourcing of jobs to China.[62] After the McConnell campaign accused the PAC of race-bating, the PAC apologized and erased the offending tweet.[62]

As of their last campaign finance report from the second quarter of 2013, Progress Kentucky raised just over $14,000. As a super PAC it was allowed to collect unlimited sums of campaign cash.[62] The group had just over $1,000 in the bank at the end of June 2013.[62]

Endorsements

Democratic primary

Alison Lundergan Grimes

Gov. Steve Beshear pledged his support for Alison Lundergan Grimes on July 9, 2013. In a press conference he stated, “I’m going to support Alison Lundergan Grimes for the U.S. Senate in every way that I can and whatever they want me to do, I’m going to be there to do. It is time to bring Mitch McConnell home. You know, after 30 years of obstruction and 30 years of do-nothing in the United States Senate, we need somebody up there that is going to represent Kentucky.”[63]

In a statement released August 21, 2013, EMILY's List released its endorsement for Lundergan Grimes.[64]Alison Lundergan Grimes is an energetic rising star, and her candidacy gives Kentuckians a chance to finally send a leader to Washington who puts families ahead of partisan politics,” said Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY’s List.[64] “She is an incredible leader who has fought for women and families by protecting victims of domestic violence, supporting state and local businesses, championing voting rights, and advocating for military personnel. Mitch McConnell is one of the least liked senators in the country for a reason – he’s hopelessly out-of-touch with the needs of his state. Alison is working tirelessly to make sure that Kentuckians’ voices are being heard. The EMILY’s List community – now more than two million members – is excited to support the campaign of such a strong and dedicated public servant.”[64]

Republican primary

Matt Bevin

The Madison Project, a conservative fundraising group headed by former Rep. Jim Ryun, announced its endorsement of Matt Bevin on July 28, 2013.[51] The group praised Bevin’s candidacy in a letter to activists and donors as someone poised to storm “the decaying castle of the GOP establishment for millions of conservatives.”[51]

“As a self-made successful businessman, Matt Bevin understands that the failed leadership in the Republican Party cannot be fixed with the very elements that precipitated its failure,” they wrote.

Madison Project also blasted McConnell’s record in the GOP leadership, including his role in negotiating a deal to raise the national debt limit in 2011 and his handling of the immigration debate. “Sen. McConnell quietly encouraged Sen. Rubio to join the Gang of Eight to ensure that the amnesty bill would pass, albeit without his public support,” the group wrote. “Despite the fact that this was the most onerous bill to come to the floor since ObamaCare and despite his status as GOP leader, Sen. McConnell failed to deliver a single floor speech against the bill.”[51]

Mitch McConnell

TheTeaParty.net, a national tea party group, declared in May 2013 its support for McConnell in his 2014 re-election bid.[65]

Senator Rand Paul declared his support for incumbent Mitch McConnell in his primary battle against challenger Matt Bevin.[66] In response to Bevin's decision to challenge McConnell he said, “I’m not giving him encouragement or discouragement. It’s a free country and anyone who wants to run can. I have endorsed Sen. McConnell.” As the election progresses Paul increasingly must perform a careful balancing act: Show complete support for McConnell, while avoiding alienating the same tea party supporters who helped him in 2010 and whom he’ll need in 2016.[66]

In August 2013 three conservative members of the U.S. Senate-- Ted Cruz, Ron Johnson, and Mike Lee-- all declined to endorse McConnell over primary challenger and businessman Matt Bevin.[67]

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Rand Paul won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Jack Conway (D) and Billy Ray Wilson (Write-In) in the general election.[68]

U.S. Senate General Election, Kentucky, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRand Paul 55.7% 755,706
     Democratic Jack Conway 44.2% 600,052
     Independent Billy Ray Wilson 0% 338
Total Votes 1,356,096

2008

On November 4, 2008, Mitch McConnell won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Bruce Lunsford (D) in the general election.[69]

U.S. Senate General Election, Kentucky, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngMitch McConnell Incumbent 53% 953,816
     Democratic Bruce Lunsford 47% 847,005
Total Votes 1,800,821

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 SENATE RACE RATINGS FOR JULY 18, 2014," accessed August 5, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed August 5, 2014
  3. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  5. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  6. Five Thirty Eight "Re-Election Is Likely for McConnell, but Not Guaranteed" Accessed July 8, 2013
  7. 7.0 7.1 Public Policy Polling, "McConnell remains extremely unpopular," April 9, 2013
  8. WHAS "Grimes to challenge McConnell in 2014" Accessed July 1, 2013
  9. WFPL "Noise and Notes: Bennie J. Smith's Long Shot Quest to Retire Mitch McConnell" Accessed July 5, 2013
  10. Bennie J. Smith for U.S. Senate "Info" Accessed July 3, 2013
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 WDRB "Ky. Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes announces Senate run" Accessed July 3, 2013
  12. Washington Post "Businessman set to enter primary against McConnell" Accessed July 22, 2013
  13. 13.0 13.1 ABC News "Potential McConnell Challenger to Announce Senate Intentions" Accessed July 1, 2013
  14. cn|2 "Party of one? Republican Gurley L. Martin's 90th birthday plans include filing to challenge McConnell" Accessed July 5, 2013
  15. ABC News "Former Miss America May Take On Mitch McConnell" Accessed July 1, 2013
  16. The News Enterprise "Guthrie, Parrett not interested in challenging McConnell in 2014" Accessed July 5, 2013
  17. Politico "Kentucky lawmaker earns name for himself by voting ‘no’" Accessed July 5, 2013
  18. 18.0 18.1 Fox News "Ashley Judd running for Senate in Kentucky?" accessed February 15, 2013
  19. Bioguide, "Addison Mitchell McConnell," accessed April 29, 2014
  20. Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named lowapp
  21. The Hill, "Candidates won’t commit to McConnell," accessed April 30, 2014
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 Washington Post "New McConnell ad plays up Democrats’ ‘dirty’ attacks" Accessed April 19, 2013
  23. Politico "Videoshare" Accessed June 26, 2013
  24. Politico "Kentucky Senate ads heating up" Accessed June 26, 2013
  25. WHAS "Grimes to challenge McConnell in 2014" Accessed July 1, 2013
  26. 26.0 26.1 26.2 USA Today "McConnell mocks Democratic rival in video" Accessed July 3, 2013
  27. 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.3 Washington Post "DSCC, McConnell super PAC launch ads" Accessed July 19, 2013
  28. 28.0 28.1 Washington Post "McConnell launches ad against soon-to-be primary opponent" Accessed July 24, 2013
  29. 29.0 29.1 The Washington Post "Matt Bevin launches campaign against McConnell" Accessed July 24, 2013
  30. 30.0 30.1 30.2 The Hill "Senate Majority PAC hammers McConnell as 'guardian of gridlock' in new ad" Accessed July 26, 2013
  31. Kentucky.com "New TV ad calls Mitch McConnell 'the guardian of gridlock'" Accessed July 26, 2013
  32. 32.0 32.1 32.2 Courier Journal "Alison Lundergan Grimes tells Mitch McConnell 'I don't scare easy' in video" Accessed July 26, 2013
  33. Politico "Alison Lundergan Grimes to Mitch McConnell: ‘I don’t scare easy’" Accessed July 26, 2013
  34. Policy Mic.com "Alison Lundergan Grimes: McConnell's New Attack Ad is Straight Out Of Bizarro World" Accessed July 26, 2013
  35. NY Daily News "VIDEO: ‘What rhymes with Mitch?’ Alison Lundergan Grimes gives McConnell a taste of his own medicine in as the Kentucky Senate Race heats up with new ad" Accessed July 26, 2013
  36. WUKY "Alison Lundergan Grimes Calls Mitch McConnell's Leadership Spiteful, Petty in Kick-Off Ad" Accessed July 26, 2013
  37. 37.0 37.1 37.2 Washington Post "McConnell launches another ad against Matt Bevin" Accessed August 7, 2013
  38. 38.0 38.1 38.2 The Hill "McConnell slams GOP challenger as 'Bailout Bevin' in new ad" Accessed August 7, 2013
  39. Daily Independent "McConnell campaign calls Bevin ‘minor nuisance’" Accessed August 7, 2013
  40. WDRB "McConnell campaign releases new ad accusing opponent of tax problems" Accessed August 7, 2013
  41. 41.0 41.1 Talking Points Memo "Bevin Ad Slams ‘Mudslinging Mitch’ McConnell’s Wall Street Bailouts (VIDEO)" Accessed August 7, 2013
  42. 42.0 42.1 [www.dailykos.com/story/2013/08/07/1229498/-New-ad-from-tea-party-challenger-goes-after-Mudslinging-Mitch?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+dailykos%2Findex+(Daily+Kos) Daily Kos "New ad from tea party challenger goes after 'Mudslinging Mitch'" Accessed August 7, 2013]
  43. 43.0 43.1 43.2 43.3 43.4 43.5 Politico, "Kentucky Senate race 2014: Mitch McConnell video goes after Matt Bevin," accessed August 12, 2013
  44. 44.0 44.1 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.5 Politico, "Mitch McConnell gets boost from chemistry group," accessed August 14, 2013
  45. 45.0 45.1 45.2 Talking Points Memo, "Senate Conservatives Fund To Make McConnell ‘Feel The Heat’ In KY Campaign," accessed August 19, 2013
  46. 46.0 46.1 Sunlight Foundation, "PAC with ties to DeMint attacks McConnell on immigration," accessed August 19, 2013
  47. 47.0 47.1 47.2 47.3 47.4 47.5 Kentucky.com, "Conservative group presses McConnell on health law," accessed August 27, 2013
  48. 48.0 48.1 48.2 Star Tribune, "Conservative group to run radio ad challenging Senate GOP leader McConnell on health care law," accessed August 27, 2013
  49. 49.0 49.1 Politico, "POLITICO’s Morning Score: Ohio governor poll — Six-figure McConnell ad buy vs. Bevin — McDonnell prosecution would be no slam dunk — Montana Senate moves to ‘tossup/tilt Republican’," accessed August 21, 2013
  50. 50.0 50.1 The Hill, "MIT denies possible McConnell challenger’s claimed ties to school," accessed August 21, 2013
  51. 51.0 51.1 51.2 51.3 51.4 51.5 51.6 The Washington Post, "Conservative group launches radio ad against McConnell," accessed August 27, 2013
  52. WFPL, "Conservative PAC's Radio Ad Echoes Matt Bevin Attacks on Mitch McConnell," accessed August 27, 2013
  53. 53.0 53.1 Daily Kos, "McConnell campaign unloads on Bevin after conservative group says Mitch is too liberal," accessed August 27, 2013
  54. Huffington Post " Kentucky Senate Poll Shows Mitch McConnell Tied With Alison Lundergan Grimes" Accessed June 6, 2013
  55. Public Policy Polling "Kentucky Polling Memo" Accessed June 6, 2013
  56. Cincinnati.com "McConnell ahead in new poll" Accessed June 6, 2013
  57. Politico "Survey of Likely Voters Statewide in Kentucky" Accessed June 6, 2013
  58. 58.0 58.1 58.2 58.3 58.4 Politico, "Mitch McConnell, Alison Lundergan Grimes face off at Fancy Farm," accessed August 7, 2013
  59. Washington Examiner "Mitch McConnell raises another $2.2m for re-election campaign" Accessed July 12, 2013
  60. 60.0 60.1 60.2 60.3 60.4 60.5 Washington Post, "Kentucky Senate race could top $100 million," accessed August 12, 2013
  61. 61.0 61.1 61.2 Politico, "Mitch McConnell super PAC raises $1.2M," accessed August 12, 2013
  62. 62.0 62.1 62.2 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.6 62.7 62.8 Politico, "FEC signs off on Progress Kentucky closing," accessed August 13, 2013
  63. Courier Journal "Gov. Steve Beshear pledges support for Alison Lundergan Grimes" Accessed July 11, 2013
  64. 64.0 64.1 64.2 EMILY's List, "EMILY’s List Endorses Alison Lundergan Grimes for Senate in Kentucky," accessed August 22, 2013
  65. Politico "Targeted Tea Party Group Endorses Mitch McConnell" Accessed May 14, 2013
  66. 66.0 66.1 Politico "Rand Paul in tough spot in 2014 Kentucky Senate race" Accessed July 25, 2013
  67. NBC Politics "At Fancy Farm, McConnell steps into crosshairs" Accessed August 5, 2013
  68. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008"
  69. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008"