Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections in Louisiana, 2014"

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===Rob Maness===
 
===Rob Maness===
 
The [[Senate Conservatives Fund]] announced an endorsement for [[Rob Maness]] (R) on October 28, 2013.<ref>[http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/330977-senate-conservatives-fund-backs-tea-party-challenger-maness-in-louisiana ''The Hill,'' "Senate Conservatives fund backs Tea Party challenger Maness in Louisiana," accessed October 29, 2013]</ref>
 
The [[Senate Conservatives Fund]] announced an endorsement for [[Rob Maness]] (R) on October 28, 2013.<ref>[http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/330977-senate-conservatives-fund-backs-tea-party-challenger-maness-in-louisiana ''The Hill,'' "Senate Conservatives fund backs Tea Party challenger Maness in Louisiana," accessed October 29, 2013]</ref>
 +
 +
"Colonel Rob Maness is a constitutional conservative with a remarkable record of service to our country," Senate Conservatives Fund Executive Director Matt Hoskins said in a statement. "He understands the value of our freedoms and will fight to repeal Obamacare and stop the massive spending, bailouts, and debt that are bankrupting our country."<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/10/28/senate-conservatives-fund-endorses-maness-in-louisiana/?wprss=rss_congress ''Washington Post,'' "Senate Conservatives Fund endorses Maness in Louisiana," accessed November 11, 2013]</ref>
  
 
==Election history==
 
==Election history==

Revision as of 08:10, 11 November 2013



CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in Louisiana

Runoff General Election Date
December 6, 2014

Primary Date
November 4, 2014

December 6 Runoff Election Winner:
Pending
See also:
United States Senate runoff election in Louisiana, 2014
Incumbent prior to election:
Mary Landrieu Democratic Party
Mary Landrieu.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Leans R[2]


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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Louisiana.png
Voters in Louisiana will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.

Louisiana is one of three states to use a blanket primary, or top-two system, which allows all candidates to run and all voters to vote but only moves the top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, to the general election. In Louisiana, the runoff general election on December 6, 2014, is only required if no candidate receives 50 percent or more of the primary vote. If the runoff election is not needed, the race is decided with the one election (acting as both the primary and the general election) on November 4, 2014.[3][4][5]

The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Mary Landrieu (D). Landrieu was first elected in 1996.

Candidates

Note: Prior to the signature filing deadline, candidates will be added when Ballotpedia writers come across declared candidates. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

Potential candidates

Declined to run

Race ratings

Most vulnerable seats

The FiscalTimes compiled a list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014. The seven included in the list are: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Going into the 2014 election, all seven seats are held by Democrats.[13]

Race background

According to an April 2013 Politico report, Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu had raised $1.2 million in the first quarter of 2013 and had $3.5 million cash on hand.[14] However, potential challenger Rep. Bill Cassidy (R) was not far behind, with $2 million in the bank at the end of the first quarter.[13] That far outpaces other possible opponents. In reports from July 2013 Landrieu reported raising $1.7 million during the second quarter and had $4.9 million cash-on-hand.[15]

Republican candidate Rob Maness is seeking the backing of the Senate Conservatives Fund (SCF), a group that backs conservative primary challengers in Senate races, which he says is “a strong supporter of my campaign.”[16][17]Former Rep. Jeff Landry is another possible Republican challenger.

Landrieu has never won more than 52 percent of the vote in her three previous Senate victories.[13] A hypothetical Republican majority in 2015 would require winning this seat.[13]

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said on July 8, 2013, that he has no plans to run against incumbent Mary Landrieu in 2014, despite frequent speculation about his interest.[12] The Republican governor flatly rejected the idea that he wanted to return to Congress, saying when asked about the race, "Absolutely not, emphatically no."[12] He went on to repeat his disinterest several more times, seeking to squelch a rumor that just seems unable to disappear in Louisiana's political circles.[12] "There is no caveat, no wiggle room. I'm not trying to give myself any outs. I have absolutely no interest in running for the United States Senate. I'm not a candidate for the United States Senate. I will not be a candidate for the United States Senate. You can film that. You can write that down. Absolutely not," Jindal repeated when asked about the rumor.[12]

Louisiana GOP statewide tour

In an effort to unseat Mary Landrieu in the 2014 election, the Louisiana Republican Party announced that it is planning a statewide 100-city tour, to the Roots, set to begin in August 2013.[18] "We recognize that we have quite a challenge next year in defeating Senator Landrieu, and it's going to take all hands on deck," said GOP Executive Director Jason Dore. Dore went on to add that the goal of the tour is to determine potential supporters and activists, establish precinct captains and lay the groundwork for 2014.[18] "Identify workers that will go out and encourage their friends and their community to go out and support whoever the Republican candidate ends up being, and vote against Mary Landrieu as we return the Senate to Republican hands," Dore said in a statement regarding the tour.[18]

Polls

Landrieu (D) v. Cassidy (R)
Poll Mary Landrieu (D) Bill Cassidy (R)Not SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling
April 6-7, 2013
46%41%13%+/-4.21541
OnMessage
August 12-15, 2013
44%41%14%+/-3.5800
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel
August 14-15, 2013
45%47%8%+/-4.01596
Public Policy Polling
August 16-19, 2013
50%40%10%+/-3.6721
AVERAGES 46.25% 42.25% 11.25% +/-3.83 664.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Landrieu (D) v. Guillory (R)
Poll Mary Landrieu (D) Elbert Guillory (R)Not SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel
August 14-15, 2013
44%44%11%+/-4.01596
Public Policy Polling
August 16-19, 2013
50%36%14%+/-3.6721
AVERAGES 47% 40% 12.5% +/-3.81 658.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Landrieu (D) v. Maness (R)
Poll Mary Landrieu (D) Rob Maness (R)Not SureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling/Conservative Intel
August 14-15, 2013
47%41%12%+/-4.01596
Public Policy Polling
August 16-19, 2013
50%37%13%+/-3.6721
AVERAGES 48.5% 39% 12.5% +/-3.81 658.5
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Issues

Obamacare

American Crossroads web ad


American Crossroads web ad attacking Landrieu, "Lied LA."

The super PAC American Crossroads launched a series of paid web ads in early November 2013 attacking three Democratic senators, Mary Landrieu, Mark Begich and Kay Hagan, with the erroneous claim made by the White House that Americans could keep their current coverage under the health care law if they preferred it.[19]

The videos featured repeated clips of President Obama ensuring that Americans could keep their existing healthcare plans under the Affordable Care Act, along with news reports declaring that claim to be wrong and revealing the White House was aware that insurers would cancel some plans. The ads also feature clips of each senator at the end echoing the claim that Americans can keep their insurance under the health care law.[19]

Americans for Prosperity

The conservative group Americans for Prosperity released a $500,000 ad buy targeting Mary Landrieu over the new health care law on October 29, 2013.[20] The group also released a similar ad buy against Kay Hagan (D) of North Carolina at the same time. The two ads cost more than $2 million combined.[20]

The ad twice plays a clip of Landrieu saying of Obamacare, “If I had to vote for the bill again, I would vote for it tomorrow.”[20]

"Tell Sen. Landrieu we deserve better than Obamacare...Who gets stuck with the bill? Families and small businesses,” that ad says of Obamacare.[20]

Tim Phillips, the president of Americans for Prosperity, said, “Both ads are unique, but the goal is the same: we want to make sure to hold both of these senators accountable over the long term for their votes that first passed Obamacare into law and now have upheld that law repeatedly. I’ve said a number of times before that repealing Obamacare is a long-term effort...These ads, both on network [TV] and cable, along with social media and grassroots, is a continuation of what we believe is going to be a long-term effort required to eventually repeal Obamacare.”[20]

RNC robocalls

The Republican National Committee conducted robocalls about Mary Landrieu and the federal government shutdown on October 14, 2013, targeting those who lived near Landrieu's home and her local offices across the state.[21]

In the recording, the group attempted to blame Landrieu and other Democrats for putting veterans benefits in jeopardy during the federal government shutdown.[21]

"These men and women served our country with honor and yet Sen. Landrieu would rather put partisan politics ahead of honoring our commitment to the people who defended this country," said a female voice identified as Erin during the robocall.[21]

Campaign donors

According to first quarter campaign finance reports from April 2013, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) had already raised $1.2 million and had $3.5 million cash-on-hand.[22]

In the second quarter of 2013, encompassing April, May and June, Landrieu raised $1.67 million, compared with $1.2 million in the first quarter.[23] She had a total $4.86 million cash on hand at the end of the second quarter. She continued to lead her Republican challenger U.S. Rep. Bill Cassidy in the money game at the end of the second quarter, but while Landrieu reported more than a $1.6 million edge, Cassidy's fundraising trajectory spiked in the second quarter, more than doubling his previous numbers.[23] Cassidy raised $1.1 million in the second quarter for a total of $3.2 million as of July 2013.[23] However, the $1.1 million raised by Cassidy was a 220 percent increase over his first quarter's numbers, which came in at just over $500,000. Landrieu's increase in the second quarter of 2013 over her previous quarter's numbers was just under 140 percent.[23]

Cassidy donates to Democratic candidates

Reports circulated in September 2013 that Bill Cassidy had previously donated to several Democratic candidates in the past, including a $500 donation to incumbent Mary Landrieu in June 2002.[24]

Media


The NRSC August 2013 ad targeting Mary Landrieu, "Misfire."

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) used a classic video game and the season premiere of “Duck Dynasty” to target Sen. Mary Landrieu in the NRSC campaign arm’s first televised ad of the midterm election cycle.[25][26][27]

The ad utilizes Nintendo’s “Duck Hunt” game, familiar to children of the 1980s.[25] Titled “Misfire,” the NRSC’s spot says Landrieu has “bad aim” when it comes to issues such as “health care, energy, taxes and jobs.”[25]

The spot airs only in New Orleans during the first episode of the Louisiana-based A&E reality show, as well as the following week’s episode.[25]

The targeted TV ad buy is just one part of a congressional recess campaign to connect with voters in states where Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election.[25] The NRSC plans to use phones, billboards, push cards and walk days, plus Web videos and a social media push, to target incumbents in Alaska, Arkansas, Illinois, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina, as well as House members running in Iowa and Michigan.[25]

“Throughout August, the NRSC is connecting directly with folks from Alaska to North Carolina, reminding them that Democrats have turned their backs on women, families and workers by embracing President Obama’s job stifling agenda,” NRSC spokeswoman Brook Hougesen said in a statement.[25]

Landrieu's campaign was quick to respond to the NRSC attack.[28] "This ad is a total quack. It is a desperate, misleading attempt by the NRSC, which hopes it will help them duck the fact that Mary Landrieu has spent her entire time in the Senate fighting and winning for Louisiana," Adam Sullivan, Landrieu's campaign director said in an email.[28] "It was her bill, GOMESA, that opened up 8.3 million acres in the Gulf for domestic drilling, established revenue sharing for Louisiana to restore its coast and created good-paying energy jobs. And, unlike others in this race, Sen. Landrieu voted last January to provide permanent tax relief to Louisiana's middle class families."[28]

Endorsements

Bill Cassidy

On November 3, 2013, State Rep. Alan Seabaugh announced that he decided not to run for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and instead endorsed Rep. Bill Cassidy.[11]

"In recent weeks, Bill Cassidy has proven something to me and fellow conservatives," Seabaugh said. "He stood with those of us who care about the future of this country by not giving in to President Obama and the liberal big spenders in Congress. This particular stand was important to me, as a conservative."[11]

Rob Maness

The Senate Conservatives Fund announced an endorsement for Rob Maness (R) on October 28, 2013.[29]

"Colonel Rob Maness is a constitutional conservative with a remarkable record of service to our country," Senate Conservatives Fund Executive Director Matt Hoskins said in a statement. "He understands the value of our freedoms and will fight to repeal Obamacare and stop the massive spending, bailouts, and debt that are bankrupting our country."[30]

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, David Vitter won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Charlie Melancon (D), Michael Karlton Brown (I), R. A. "Skip" Galan (I), Milton Gordon (I), Sam Houston Melton, Jr. (I), Randall Todd Hayes (L), William R. McShan (Reform), Michael Lane "Mike" Spears (I), Ernest D. Woolon (I), William Robert "Bob" Lang, Jr. (I) and Thomas G. "Tommy" LaFarge (I) in the general election.[31]

U.S. Senate General Election, Louisiana, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngDavid Vitter Incumbent 56.6% 715,415
     Democratic Charlie Melancon 37.7% 476,572
     Independent Michael Karlton Brown 0.8% 9,973
     Independent R. A. "Skip" Galan 0.6% 7,474
     Independent Milton Gordon 0.4% 4,810
     Independent Sam Houston Melton, Jr. 0.3% 3,780
     Libertarian Randall Todd Hayes 1.1% 13,957
     Reform William R. McShan 0.5% 5,879
     Independent Michael Lane "Mike" Spears 0.7% 9,190
     Independent Ernest D. Woolon 0.6% 8,167
     Independent William Robert "Bob" Lang, Jr. 0.5% 5,734
     Independent Thomas G. "Tommy" LaFarge 0.3% 4,043
Total Votes 1,264,994

2008

On November 4, 2008, Mary Landrieu won re-election to the United States Senate. She defeated John Kennedy (R), Richard Fontanesi (L), Jay Patel (I) and Robert Stewart (I) in the general election.[32]

U.S. Senate General Election, Louisiana, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMary Landrieu Incumbent 52.4% 988,298
     Republican John Kennedy 45.9% 867,177
     Libertarian Richard Fontanesi 1% 18,590
     Independent Jay Patel 0.7% 13,729
     Independent Robert Stewart 0% 0
Total Votes 1,887,794

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 SENATE RACE RATINGS FOR NOVEMBER 3, 2014," accessed November 3, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed November 3, 2014
  3. National Conference of State Legislatures Website, "State Primary Election Types," accessed January 6, 2014
  4. Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 6, 2014
  5. Ballotpedia research conducted December 26, 2013 through January 3, 2014 researching and analyzing various state websites and codes.
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 Roll Call "Louisiana: Cassidy Challenging Landrieu" Accessed April 9, 2013
  7. The Times-Picayune "Sen. Mary Landrieu's new challenger: Air Force veteran from Madisonville" Accessed May 17, 2013
  8. Louisiana Politics, "Another Republican Legislator Thinking About Senate Run," accessed October 28, 2013
  9. NOLA.com, "Elbert Guillory considering U.S. Senate, Louisiana lieutenant governor run," accessed August 20, 2013
  10. Shreveport Times, "Seabaugh: Cassidy not conservative enough to beat Landrieu," accessed October 9, 2013
  11. 11.0 11.1 11.2 NOLA.com, "State Rep. Alan Seabaugh won't run for the Senate, endorses Bill Cassidy," accessed November 4, 2013
  12. 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 Shreveport Times "Gov. Bobby Jindal says no to U.S. Senate race in 2014" Accessed July 22, 2013
  13. 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 Fiscal Times " 7 Senate Seats Most at Risk—Hint: They’re All Blue" Accessed February 15, 2013
  14. Politico "Red-state Democrats raise millions" Accessed April 18, 2013
  15. Politico "Sen. Mary Landrieu builds up campaign funds" Accessed July 9, 2013
  16. The Hill "GOP Senate fortunes get boost with Cassidy's Louisiana fundraising haul" Accessed July 22, 2013
  17. The Hill "Second Republican enters race for Mary Landrieu's seat" Accessed July 22, 2013
  18. 18.0 18.1 18.2 WWL.com "Louisiana GOP plans statewide tour to topple Mary Landrieu" Accessed July 22, 2013
  19. 19.0 19.1 The Hill, "Super PAC hits Begich, Hagan, Landrieu on dropped health care coverage," accessed November 5, 2013
  20. 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 Politico, "Ads hit red-state Democrats on Obamacare," accessed October 29, 2013
  21. 21.0 21.1 21.2 NOLA.com, "RNC launches robocall against Landrieu on government shutdown," accessed October 22, 2013
  22. Mary Landreiu "News" Accessed April 17, 2013
  23. 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.3 Nola.com "Bill Cassidy, Mary Landrieu release strong second quarter fundraising numbers" Accessed July 22, 2013
  24. NOLA Defender, "Cassidy Gave to Campaigns for Landrieu, Democrats, Records Show," accessed September 19, 2013
  25. 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.6 Roll Call, "Senate Republicans Duck Hunt in Louisiana | #LASEN," accessed August 19, 2013
  26. Washington Times, "Mary Landrieu targeted in ‘Duck Hunt’ ad," accessed August 19, 2013
  27. United Liberty, "Mary Landrieu fires and misses on issues dear to Louisiana," accessed August 19, 2013
  28. 28.0 28.1 28.2 NOLA.com, "Sen. Mary Landrieu responds to NRSC 'Misfire' attack ad, touts her record," accessed August 19, 2013
  29. The Hill, "Senate Conservatives fund backs Tea Party challenger Maness in Louisiana," accessed October 29, 2013
  30. Washington Post, "Senate Conservatives Fund endorses Maness in Louisiana," accessed November 11, 2013
  31. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 20010"
  32. U.S. Congress House Clerk "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008"