United States Senate elections in Massachusetts, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Massachusetts

November 6 Election Winner:
Elizabeth Warren Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Scott Brown Republican Party
Scott Brown.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Tossup (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Massachusetts.png
Voters in Massachusetts will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

The signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run is June 5, 2012. The primary elections will be held on September 6, 2012 (originally scheduled for September 18 but moved to avoid Rosh Hashanah[1]; another change of date is possible though unlikely[2]).

The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Scott Brown (R). First elected during a special election in 2010, Brown is running for re-election in 2012.

Candidates

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Withdrawn:

Republican Party Republican primary

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [8]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Massachusetts Senate
Month Rating
March 22, 2012[9]     
March 1, 2012[10]     
January 26, 2012[11]     
December 22, 2011[12]     
December 1, 2011[13]     

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012 detailing the 8 races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013.[14] The seat rated a a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is second most likely to end up Republican, second only to Montana, is the Senate seat in Massachusetts.[14] The article notes that Scott Brown has had recent campaigning success in Massachusetts, and despite mixed polls, Brown’s "blue-collar appeal" might be enough against his opponent, Democrat Elizabeth Warren.[14]

Polls

Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren

Scott Brown vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll Scott Brown Elizabeth WarrenNeitherDon't knowMargin of ErrorSample Size
UMass/Boston Herald (December 1-6, 2011)
42%49%3%6%+/-5.3505
Western NE College (October 17-23, 2011)
47%42%1%10%+/-4.5475
AVERAGES 44.5% 45.5% 2% 8% +/-4.9 490
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Election history

2010

On January 19, 2010, Brown won a special election to the United States Senate. He defeated Martha Coakley (D) and Joseph L. Kennedy (L) in the special election.[15]

U.S. Senate Special Election, Massachusetts, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngScott Brown 51.9% 1,168,178
     Democratic Martha Coakley 47.1% 1,060,861
     Libertarian Joseph L. Kennedy 1% 22,388
     Independent Write-In 0.1% 1,155
Total Votes 2,252,582

2008

On November 4, 2008, John Kerry won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Jeffrey Beatty and Robert Underwood in the general election.[16]

U.S. Senate General Election, Massachusetts, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Kerry Incumbent 65.9% 1,971,974
     Republican Jeffrey Beatty 31% 926,044
     Libertarian Robert Underwood 3.1% 93,713
Total Votes 2,991,731

See also

References