Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections in Mississippi, 2014"

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==Media==
 
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===Primary runoff ads===
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After an extremely close Republican primary, groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the [[National Association of Realtors]] and [[Club for Growth]] released ads backing either [[Thad Cochran]] or [[Chris McDaniel]] for the Republican nomination in the primary runoff.<ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2014/06/13/tv-ad-war-ramps-up-in-mississippi-senate-runoff-video/ ''The Washington Post'', "TV ad war ramps up in Mississippi Senate runoff," accessed June 17, 2014]</ref>
  
 
===Thad Cochran===
 
===Thad Cochran===

Revision as of 09:31, 17 June 2014



CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in Mississippi

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Pending
Incumbent prior to election:
Thad Cochran Republican Party
Thad Cochran.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely R[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe R[2]


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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Mississippi.png
Voters in Mississippi will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.

Incumbent Thad Cochran faced a tough challenge in the Republican primary by Chris McDaniel. Although Cochran maintained a lead over McDaniel in terms of campaign finances, the Republican primary polls did not reveal a clear winner. In the Republican primary on June 3, 2014, although McDaniel received slightly more votes than Cochran, candidate Thomas Carey took just enough votes so that McDaniel did not receive the 50% of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff. McDaniel and Cochran will continue campaigning until the winner is decided in the primary runoff on June 24, 2014.

Bill Marcy, Travis Childers, William Bond Compton, Jr. and Jonathan Rawl all competed for the Democratic nomination in the primary.[3] Marcy ran as a Republican in 2012 and said that he was running in 2014 as a "Plan B" for voters if Cochran wins the Republican primary.[4] Childers easily won Democratic primary, having raised $51,600 in the April Quarterly FEC report and leading in the polls.[5][6]

After the Republican primary, Cochran supporters were faced with a tough decision. They could continue attacking McDaniel on behalf of Cochran, but if McDaniel were to win anyway, this could put the Republican seat at risk by reducing votes for Republicans in the general election. On the other hand, many believe that Cochran has a better chance of winning in the general election against Childers.[7] Some groups, such as American Crossroads, have already withdrawn their support from Cochran, stating, "Other than Alaska, we have completed our work on Senate primaries this cycle and are now focused on general elections. With the Chamber, the NRSC, and a local super PAC already backing Cochran, this is not our fight."[8]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 1, 2014
June 3, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Mississippi is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Voters do not have to register with a party, but they must intend to support the party nominations if they vote in the primary election.[9]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by May 25, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 5, 2014.[10]

See also: Mississippi elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Thad Cochran (R). Cochran was first elected in 1978.

Candidates

General election candidates


June 24 Republican runoff primary

Note: No candidate secured more than 50 percent of the vote in the June 3, 2014, primary election. A runoff primary election was held between the top two candidates.[11][12]

June 3, 2014, primary results

Republican Party Republican Primary

Democratic Party Democratic Primary


Primary results

U.S. Senate, Mississippi Republican Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngChris McDaniel 49.5% 157,733
Green check mark transparent.pngThad Cochran Incumbent 49% 156,315
Thomas Carey 1.5% 4,854
Total Votes 318,902
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State - Official Republican primary results
U.S. Senate, Mississippi Democratic Primary, 2014
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTravis Childers 74% 63,548
Bill Marcy 12.1% 10,361
William Bond Compton, Jr. 9.9% 8,465
Jonathan Rawl 4.1% 3,492
Total Votes 85,866
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State - Official Democratic primary results

Race background

The primary battle between state Senator Chris McDaniel and incumbent Thad Cochran was highlighted as one of the top five primaries to watch in 2014. Shortly after McDaniel announced his candidacy, The Club for Growth, SCF, FreedomWorks, the Tea Party Express and the Madison Project all announced support.[16]

Primary vulnerability

Cochran was named by National Journal as one of the top five incumbent senators at risk of losing his or her primary election. Four of the five most vulnerable senators are Republican.[17]

Photos of Cochran's wife

Clayton Thomas Kelly, who ran a blog and openly supported Chris McDaniel over Thad Cochran, was arrested on May 16, 2014, for sneaking into St. Catherine's Village, a nursing home, and taking unauthorized photographs of Cochran's bedridden wife in order to post them in an internet video attacking Cochran. He was arrested for exploitation of a vulnerable adult.[18] McDaniel's campaign denied any involvement with Kelly or the video, and McDaniel issued a statement criticizing Kelly's actions and reaching out to Cochran.[19]

Democrat-aimed Cochran ad

After Thad Cochran and Chris McDaniel began their battle for the primary runoff election, McDaniel supporters brought attention to an ad that appeared in the Mississippi Link newspaper in late May 2014 . The ad was geared toward Democratic voters, and stated that Cochran was "Behind the latest farm bill that funds the SNAP program and supports our local farmers."[20] Interestingly, the ad states that it was paid for by "All Citizens for Mississippi," and there is no group of that name registered with the Federal Election Commission. Furthermore, nowhere on the ad does it state whether or not the ad was authorized by Cochran.[21]

Endorsements

Thad Cochran

Thad Cochran received the following endorsements:

"A true statesman, Sen. Cochran has dedicated his life to serving the people of Mississippi.... And Mississippi needs his leadership in the U.S. Senate now more than ever."[22]
"The people of Mississippi need his experience and proven conservative leadership more than ever. Thad's work on behalf of Mississippi is a testament to his selfless dedication to our state and its future. He has my full support."[22]
"After Hurricane Katrina, Thad dedicated his time and influence to our state's recovery efforts as we rebuilt from the nation's largest natural disaster. Our state has benefited from Sen. Cochran's leadership for over three decades. In today's political environment, we need this experience for Mississippi's future."[22]
"I am glad Sen. Cochran is running for re-election and I, like thousands of Mississippians, had encouraged him to do so. He is the father of the conservative Republican takeover of Mississippi, and his wisdom will be an asset to the conservative cause as long as he serves. We as Republicans have a major fight in Washington to unwind the Obama agenda in the next six years, and we need our best minds on the job. I hope all Republicans will rally behind Thad Cochran."[22]
  • Former U.S. Senator Trent Lott[23]
  • National Right to Life[25]

Chris McDaniel

Chris McDaniel received the following endorsements for his 2014 bid:

Polls

Republican primary polls

Thad Cochran vs. Chris McDaniel
Poll Thad Cochran Chris McDanielNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Harper Polling (May 27-28, 2014)
45%40%15%+/-4.0599
GEB International (May 14, 2014)
36%43%21%+/-4600
Harper Polling (April 3-5, 2014)
52%35%12%+/-4.1570
AVERAGES 44.33% 39.33% 16% +/-4.03 589.67
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Republican primary candidates
Poll Chris McDaniel Thad CochranTom CareyUndecided/Don't knowMargin of ErrorSample Size
Chism Strategies (May 29, 2014)
46.4%44.3%1.4%7.9%+/-3.4813
Red Racing Horses (May 28-29, 2014)
41%42%6%12%+/-5374
The Polling Company, Inc. (May 14-15, 2014)
43%39%3%12%+/-4.4505
AVERAGES 43.47% 41.77% 3.47% 10.63% +/-4.27 564
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Runoff primary polls

Chris McDaniel vs. Thad Cochran
Poll Chris McDaniel Thad CochranMargin of ErrorSample Size
Chism Strategies (June 5, 2014)
50.6%47.6%+/-3.3832
Strategic National (June 5, 2014)
52.49%45.93%+/-4.66442
AVERAGES 51.55% 46.77% +/-3.98 637
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

General election polls

Thad Cochran vs. Travis Childers
Poll Thad Cochran Travis ChildersOther candidateUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports (March 26-29, 2014)
48%31%9%12%+/-4750
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Chris McDaniel vs. Travis Childers
Poll Chris McDaniel Travis ChildersMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports (March 26-29, 2014)
47%35%+/-4750
Public Policy Polling (November 15-17, 2013)
41%38%+/-4.4502
AVERAGES 44% 36.5% +/-4.2 626
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Campaign contributions

Candidate ballot accecss
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

Thad Cochran

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Cochran's reports.[42]

Thad Cochran (2013) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[43]April 9, 2013$480,184.56$178,228.98$(26,442.07)$6,319,771.47
July Quarterly[44]July 10, 2013$6,319,771.47$170,909.33$(28,927.76)$773,953.04
October Quarterly[45]October 10, 2013$773,953.04$53,147.32$(23,193.11)$803,907.25
Year-End Quarterly[46]December 31, 2013$803,907$339,337$(43,326)$1,100,445
April Quarterly[47]April 10, 2014$1,100,445.67$1,703,077.71$(1,291,015.20)$1,512,508.18
Running totals
$2,444,700.34$(1,412,904.14)

Chris McDaniel

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are McDaniel's reports.[48]

Chris McDaniel (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[49]March 18, 2014$0.00$487,802.00$(172,412.37)$315,389.63
April Quarterly[50]April 15, 2014$315,389.63$474,584.72$(323,789.16)$466,165.19
Running totals
$962,386.72$(496,201.53)

Travis Childers

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Childers' reports.[51]

Travis Childers (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[52]April 9, 2014$0.00$51,600.00$(79.75)$51,520.25
Pre-Primary[53]May 22, 2014$51,520.25$30,575.00$(8,689.80)$73,405.45
Running totals
$82,175$(8,769.55)

Election history

2012

On November 6, 2012, Roger Wicker won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Albert N. Gore, Thomas Cramer, and Shawn O'Hara in the general election.

U.S. Senate, Mississippi General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoger Wicker 57.2% 709,626
     Democratic Albert N. Gore, Jr. 40.6% 503,467
     Constitution Thomas Cramer 1.2% 15,281
     Reform Shawn O'Hara 1.1% 13,194
Total Votes 1,241,568
Source: Mississippi Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

2008

On November 4, 2008, Cochran won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Erik Fleming (D) in the general election.[54]

U.S. Senate, Mississippi General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngThad Cochran Incumbent 61.4% 766,111
     Democratic Erik Fleming 38.6% 480,915
Total Votes 1,247,026

Media

Primary runoff ads

After an extremely close Republican primary, groups including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Realtors and Club for Growth released ads backing either Thad Cochran or Chris McDaniel for the Republican nomination in the primary runoff.[55]

Thad Cochran

  • Thad Cochran released a campaign ad in which a man praised Cochran for helping him to get through red tape in order to get the medical attention he needed for his brain tumor.[56]
  • Leading up to the runoff primary against Chris McDaniel, Cochran released a campaign ad explaining how he has helped Mississippi in his time as U.S. Senator.[57]

Cochran 2014 campaign ad

Cochran's Republican primary runoff ad

Chris McDaniel

  • Chris McDaniel received negative media attention from the Mississippi Conservatives PAC. According to the PAC, McDaniel is hypocritical and has tried to take both sides on many issues, including tort reform, Common Core and earmarks.[58]
  • In his first campaign ad of the election, McDaniel stated his position on a few issues, highlighting his support for prayer in public schools and second amendment rights.[59]
  • McDaniel released another campaign ad in May 2014, this time attacking his opponent in the Republican primary, Thad Cochran.[60]
  • Citizens United Political Victory Fund (CUPVF) released an ad on May 21, 2014, attacking Cochran and supporting McDaniel.[61]
  • In an ad similar to one put out by Citizens United, the Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund released a campaign ad attacking Cochran and praising McDaniel.[62]
  • The Mississippi Conservatives PAC released an ad attacking McDaniel for voting in the Democratic primary.[63]

The Mississippi Conservatives PAC labels McDaniel a hypocrite.

McDaniel's first 2014 campaign ad

McDaniel campaign ad attacking Thad Cochran

Citizens United ad in favor of McDaniel

Tea Party Patriots ad in favor of McDaniel

Mississippi Conservatives PAC ad attacking McDaniel

Ads regarding photo scandal

  • After a Chris McDaniel supporter took photos of Thad Cochran's wife in a recent scandal, Cochran came out with a new campaign ad attacking McDaniel.[64] McDaniel, however, denied any involvement or knowledge of the photos, and retaliated with his own ad.[65]

Cochran ad attacking McDaniel

McDaniel ad in response to Cochran's attack ad

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for August 22, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. Mississippi Secretary of State, "2014 Candidate Qualifying List," accessed June 2, 2014
  4. The Hill, "Miss. conservative to run against Sen. Cochran as 'Plan B' Democrat," accessed May 29, 2014
  5. Federal Election Commission, "Travis Childers April Quarterly," accessed May 29, 2014
  6. Enterprise Journal, "As GOP slugs it out, Childers seeks Dems’ nomination for Senate," accessed May 29, 2014
  7. National Journal, "Thad Cochran's Allies Consider Scaling Back Their Support for the Embattled Senator," accessed June 9, 2014
  8. The Cook Political Report, "Mississippi Senate: Crossroads Is Out; USCOC Is In," accessed June 9, 2014
  9. Mississippi Election Code, "Section 23-15-575," accessed January 3, 2014
  10. Mississippi Secretary of State, "Mississippi Mail-in and NVRA Agency Voter Registration Application," accessed January 3, 2014
  11. Associated Press, "Mississippi Senate - Summary Vote Results," accessed June 4, 2014
  12. The Washington Post, "Cochran and McDaniel officially headed to Mississippi runoff," accessed June 4, 2014
  13. Washington Post, "Sen. Cochran will seek reelection in 2014," Aaron Blake, December 6, 2013
  14. Gulf Live.com, "State Sen. Chris McDaniel announces run for U.S. Senate in 2014," October 17, 2013
  15. The Hill, "Miss. conservative to run against Sen. Cochran as 'Plan B' Democrat," January 13, 2014
  16. Washington Post, "The Fix’s top 10 Senate races of 2014," accessed December 10, 2013
  17. National Journal, "Ranking the Top 5 Senators Vulnerable in 2014 Primaries," accessed December 31, 2013
  18. The Clarion-Ledger, "Man arrested for sneaking into Cochran's wife's nursing home," accessed May 20, 2014
  19. Chris McDaniel for U.S. Senate, "McDaniel Campaign Statements Regarding the Arrest of Clayton Kelly," accessed May 28, 2014
  20. Scribd, "Cochran ad in Mississippi Link," accessed June 9, 2014
  21. The Clarion Ledger, "Opponents seize on Cochran ad aimed at Democratic voters," accessed June 8, 2014
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 SF Gate, "Reaction to Cochran's decision to seek re-election," accessed December 6, 2013
  23. Y'all Politics, "Trent Lott endorses Thad Cochran," accessed May 28, 2014
  24. Y'all Politics, "EaglePAC endorses Thad Cochran," accessed May 28, 2014
  25. National Right to Life, "National Right to Life Endorses Sen. Thad Cochran for Re-Election," accessed May 28, 2014
  26. USA Today Politics, "NRA endorses Sen. Thad Cochran over Tea Party foe," accessed May 28, 2014
  27. Politico, "McConnell to headline Thad Cochran fundraiser," accessed June 9, 2014
  28. Politico, "Realtors start Mississippi air war," accessed June 10, 2014
  29. Washington Times, "Club for Growth endorses Sen. Thad Cochran's likely GOP primary challenger," accessed October 18, 2013
  30. Campaign website, "TEA PARTY EXPRESS ENDORSES CHRIS MCDANIEL FOR U.S. SENATE," accessed November 6, 2013
  31. FreedomWorks for America, "Chris McDaniel," accessed May 28, 2014
  32. The Washington Post, "Conservative group launches early ad for Sen. Cochran’s primary foe," accessed November 13, 2013
  33. Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund, "Tea Party Patriots Citizens Fund Endorses Chris McDaniel for United States Senate," accessed May 28, 2014
  34. Chris McDaniel for U.S. Senate, "Gun Owners of America Endorses McDaniel for U.S. Senate," accessed May 28, 2014
  35. Breitbart, "Sarah Palin Endorses Chris McDaniel for Senate in Mississippi," accessed May 28, 2014
  36. PR Newswire, "Bauer Endorses McDaniel For Senate," accessed May 28, 2014
  37. Eagle Forum, "Schlafly Endorses McDaniel in Mississippi U.S. Senate Primary," accessed May 28, 2014
  38. Madison Project, "Madison Project PAC Endorses Chris McDaniel for Senate in Mississippi," accessed May 28, 2014
  39. Coalition to Reduce Spending, "Chris McDaniel Rejects the Debt in MS," accessed May 28, 2014
  40. Y'all Politics, "YAL, Liberty Action Fund Endorses Chris McDaniel," accessed May 28, 2014
  41. 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.3 41.4 41.5 Chris McDaniel for U.S. Senate, "Ron Paul Endorses Chris McDaniel for U.S. Senate," accessed June 10, 2014
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Cochran 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 30, 2013
  43. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed July 30, 2013
  44. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed July 30, 2013
  45. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 30, 2013
  46. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 13, 2014
  47. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed April 28, 2014
  48. Federal Election Commission, "Chris McDaniel Summary Report," accessed April 28, 2014
  49. Federal Election Commission, "Chris McDaniel Year-End," accessed April 28, 2014
  50. Federal Election Commission, "Chris McDaniel April Quarterly," accessed April 28, 2014
  51. Federal Election Commission, "Travis Childers Summary Report," accessed April 28, 2014
  52. Federal Election Commission, "Travis Childers April Quarterly," accessed April 28, 2014
  53. Federal Election Commission, "Travis Childers Pre-Primary," accessed June 18, 2014
  54. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013 accessed November 3, 2011
  55. The Washington Post, "TV ad war ramps up in Mississippi Senate runoff," accessed June 17, 2014
  56. YouTube, "Jason," accessed May 28, 2014
  57. YouTube, "More for Mississippi," accessed June 12, 2014
  58. YouTube, "Chris McDaniel - "Both Sides" - Earmarks," accessed April 4, 2014
  59. The Hill, "Cochran's Tea Party foe launches first ad," accessed April 23, 2014
  60. YouTube, "Lost Touch," accessed May 16, 2014
  61. YouTube, "CUPVF: Changing Washington," accessed May 28, 2014
  62. YouTube, "What Happened to Thad?," accessed May 28, 2014
  63. YouTube, "Trial Lawyer Chris McDaniel Voted as a Democrat," accessed May 28, 2014
  64. YouTube, "Thad attack ad," accessed May 28, 2014
  65. YouTube, "McDaniel addresses negative, shameless attack ads," accessed May 28, 2014