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United States Senate elections in Missouri, 2012

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2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Missouri

CandidatesPollsElection History

November 6 Election Winner:
Claire McCaskill Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Claire McCaskill Democratic Party
Claire McCaskill.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Likely D (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

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Voters in Missouri will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

The signature filing deadline for candidates wishing to run was March 27, 2012. The primary elections will be held on August 7, 2012.

The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Claire McCaskill (D). First elected in 2006, McCaskill is running for re-election in 2012.

Candidates

Democratic Party Democratic Candidate

Republican Party Republican Primary

Libertarian Party Libertarian Candidate

Race rating

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations: [7]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Missouri Senate
Month Rating
March 22, 2012[8]     
March 1, 2012[9]     
January 26, 2012[10]     
December 22, 2011[11]     
December 1, 2011[12]     

Sabato's Crystal Ball

The University of Virginia's Center for Politics published an article called Sabato's Crystal Ball on March 22, 2012 detailing the 8 races in the Senate in 2012 that will decide the political fate of which party will end up with control in 2013.[13] The seat rated a a toss-up that the Sabato's Crystal Ball believes is 3rd most likely to end up Republican is the Senate seat in Missouri. The article notes incumbent freshman senator Claire McCaskill (D) is vulnerable in the Republican leaning state.[13] While it still remains a toss up as to who McCaskill's competitor will end up being in the general election, challengers U.S. Representative Todd Akin, former state Treasurer Sarah Steelman and businessman John Brunner all present a significant challenge to the vulnerable incumbent.

Influence of PAC Spending

While independent conservative groups have already spent more than $3 million on television and radio ads in Missouri to unseat Claire McCaskill, the Washington Post reported in late April that McCaskill's response was unique, "McCaskill’s response has been an unconventional and risky strategy: She’s targeting the super PACs right back." The story elaborates, "Standard practice suggests that voters are rarely interested in arguments over campaign finances, particularly in the face of a tough economy and a political system awash in money on both sides. But McCaskill is betting she can turn the millions spent against her into an advantage, a sign of her political independence. She devoted her first campaign ad for reelection to the argument that out-of-state special interests are trying to knock her out of the Senate in November. “You make one company mad by casting a principled vote, and they say, ‘Okay, we’ll just gin up $10 million of our corporate money and take her out anonymously,’ ” she said. “I think if people figure out that’s what’s going on, they’re going to be very turned off by it.”" [14]

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Roy Blunt was elected to the United States Senate. He defeated Robin Carnahan (D), Jonathan Dine (Libertarian), and Jerry Beck (Constitution). [15]

United States Senate, Missouri General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRoy Blunt 54.2% 1,054,160
     Democratic Robin Carnahan 40.6% 789,736
     Libertarian Jonathan Dine 3% 58,663
     Constitution Jerry Beck 2.1% 41,309
Total Votes 1,943,868

2006

On November 7, 2006, Claire McCaskill was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated the incumbent James M. Talent (R), Frank Gilmour (Libertarian), Lydia Lewis (Progressive), and the write-in candidates.[16]

United States Senate Missouri General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngClaire McCaskill 49.6% 1,055,255
     Republican James M. Talent 47.3% 1,006,941
     Libertarian Frank Gilmour 2.2% 47,792
     Progressive Lydia Lewis 0.9% 18,383
     Write-in 0% 88
Total Votes 2,128,459

See also

References