United States Senate elections in Montana, 2014

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2014 U.S. Senate Elections in Montana

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
June 3, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Steve Daines Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
John Walsh Democratic Party
Gen. John Walsh.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Likely R[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[2]


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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Montana.png
Voters in Montana will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
March 10, 2014
June 3, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: Montana has a mixed primary: Democrats hold an open primary, meaning any registered voter can vote in the party's primary, while Republicans hold a closed caucus, restricted to party members.

Voter registration: Pending

See also: Montana elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Max Baucus (D). Baucus was first elected in 1978. In April 2013, Baucus announced he would not seek re-election in 2014. [3] Montana is one of seven open Senate seats heading into the 2014 elections as of July 2013. On December 18, 2013, it was announced that Baucus is expected to be nominated as U.S. Ambassador to China. Should he be appointed before the end of his term, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock would appoint someone to finish out Baucus' term. Speculation is that Bullock would appoint Lt. Governor John Walsh, who is running for Baucus' seat in 2014.[4]

Candidates

Note: Prior to the signature filing deadline, candidates will be added when Ballotpedia writers come across declared candidates. If you see a name of a candidate who is missing, please email us and we will add that name. As the election draws closer, more information will be added to this page.

Democratic

Brian Schweitzer, a former Governor of Montana, was widely expected to make a run in 2014 for the U.S. Senate seat occupied by retiring Democrat Max Baucus. However, on July 13, 2013, Schweitzer announced that he would not enter the race.[8]

Denise Juneau, the Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction, announced on August 5, 2013, that she would not be running for Montana's Senate.

Stephanie Schriock, the president of Emily’s List and Monica Lindeen, the Montana Commissioner of Securities and Insurance also announced they will not be running in 2014.[9]

Other potential Democratic candidates include:

  • Democratic Party John Lewis, former aide to Democratic Senator Max Baucus
  • Democratic Party Brian Morris, state Supreme Court Justice

Republican

Republicans who have been mentioned as possible contenders include:

Race ratings

Washington Post top 10 races

According to an analysis by The Washington Post, the U.S. Senate election in Montana was considered one of the top 10 Senate races of 2014. When Rep. Daines entered the race in late 2013, Republicans had a clear candidate to run for the open seat against Lt. Gov. Walsh.[10]

Campaign contributions

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Daines' reports.[11]

Steve Daines (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[12]April 12, 2013$15,407.18$252,869.34$(77,952.52)$190,324.00
July Quarterly[13]July 15, 2013$190,324.00$430,922.42$(60,392.38)$560,854.04
October Quarterly[14]October 15, 2013$560,854.04$642,537.15$(64,600.10)$1,138,791.09
Year-End Quarterly[15]December 31, 2013$1,138,791$827,134$(271,846)$1,897,935
April Quarterly[16]April 15, 2014$1,897,935.17$1,215,460.20$(901,798.02)$2,211,597.35
Pre-Primary[17]May 19, 2014$2,211,597.35$512,327.71$(842,191.50)$1,881,733.56
July Quarterly[18]July 15, 2014$1,881,733.56$911,538.12$(1,065,472.52)$1,727,797.16
October Quarterly[19]October 15, 2014$1,727,797.16$1,853,201.41$(1,961,632.23)$1,619,366.34
Pre-General[20]October 20, 2014$1,619,366.34$307,857.50$(676,673.59)$1,250,550.25
Running totals
$6,953,847.85$(5,922,558.86)

Polling

A poll released in November 2013 by Public Policy Polling shows regardless of the candidate, Daines is likely to win the seat in 2014. In a match-up against Democrat John Walsh, Daines leads 52% to 35%. In a match-up against Democrat John Bohlinger, Daines leads 51% to 36%.[21]

Election history

2012

On November 6, 2012, Jon Tester won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Denny Rehberg (R) and Dan Cox (L) in the general election.[22]

U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJon Tester Incumbent 48.6% 236,123
     Republican Denny Rehberg 44.9% 218,051
     Libertarian Dan Cox 6.6% 31,892
Total Votes 486,066

2008

On November 4, 2008, Baucus won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Bob Kelleher (R).[23]

U.S. Senate, Montana General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngMax Baucus Incumbent 72.9% 348,289
     Republican Bob Kelleher 27.1% 129,369
Total Votes 477,658

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for August 22, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. The Washington Post, "Baucus to retire rather than seek re-election in 2014, strategists say", April 23, 2013
  4. Politic, "W.H. to nominate Sen. Max Baucus as next ambassador to China", accessed December 19, 2013
  5. Politico, "Democrat Walsh files for Senate in Montana", accessed October 9, 2013
  6. Missoulian.com "Bohlinger criticizes Baucus, Tester for early backing of Walsh in U.S. Senate race", accessed November 12, 2013
  7. Billings Gazette, "Wilsall rancher/political unknown says he’s running as Democrat for Baucus’ Senate seat", accessed August 16, 2013
  8. 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 Politico, "Brian Schweitzer move aids GOP in battle for Senate", July 13,2013
  9. 9.0 9.1 Washington Post "Another Democrat passes on Montana Senate race," Accessed August 6, 2013
  10. The Washington Post, "The Fix’s top 10 Senate races of 2014," accessed December 10, 2013
  11. Federal Election Commission, "Daines 2014 Summary reports," accessed July 18, 2014
  12. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed July 18, 2013
  13. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed July 18, 2013
  14. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 24, 2013
  15. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 12, 2014
  16. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed May 16, 2014
  17. FEC, "Pre-Primary," accessed October 22, 2014
  18. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed October 22, 2014
  19. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 31, 2014
  20. FEC, "Pre-General," accessed October 31, 2014
  21. Politico, "Montana Senate race 2014 poll: Steve Daines in driver’s seat", accessed November 21, 2013
  22. Montana Secretary of State "2012 Election Center" Accessed July 8, 2013
  23. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013