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Revision as of 10:53, 28 August 2014



CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in New Hampshire

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
September 9, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Pending
Incumbent prior to election:
Jeanne Shaheen Democratic Party
Jeanne Shaheen.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Lean D[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely D[2]


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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of New Hampshire.png
Voters in New Hampshire will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.

New Hampshire's 2014 U.S. Senate election has been a competitive race between Democratic incumbent Jeanne Shaheen and Republican front-runner Scott Brown, although Shaheen has maintained a steady lead the campaign.

Shaheen is running unopposed in the Democratic primary, and Brown will likely win the Republican nomination. There are ten total candidates running in the Republican primary, but experts including Dante Scala, a political scientist from the University of New Hampshire, do not believe that any of the others have a serious chance of defeating Brown.[3]

Brown disappointed many of the more conservative voters when he said that he supported an assault weapons ban.[4] Nonetheless, he maintains the favor of many moderate Republican voters, and has been emphasizing many conservative issues during the 2014 campaign season. For instance, he apparently reversed his position on gun-free zones, and has emphasized securing the border.[4] Although New Hampshire is far from the border, some say that Brown is "looking to bolster his conservative credentials among Republicans still wary of him, and who call him a 'Republican in Name Only,' or RINO."[5]

The two other Republican candidates, Bob Smith and Jim Rubens, will likely split the vote of those who are still skeptical of Brown's conservatism. Scala stated, "When there are multiple challenges to the frontrunner, that anti-frontrunner vote is going to be divided two different ways."[3] Republican primary polls further support this prediction.

Even with having a strong lead in the Republican primary, Brown will have to put in a lot of work if he expects to pose a serious threat to Shaheen's seat. Shaheen has been consistently ahead in almost all of the general election polls, and as of the April Quarterly Federal Election Commission (FEC) report, Shaheen had $4,351,281.14 in cash on hand compared to Brown's $274,728.63. The Cook Political Report also rates this seat as leaning Democratic, which means that although the race is still somewhat competitive, the Democratic candidate will have an advantage.[6]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
June 13, 2014
September 9, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: New Hampshire is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may vote in the primary, but in order to do so, they have to choose a party before voting. This changes their status from unaffiliated to affiliated with that party, unless they fill out a card to return to undeclared status.[7]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters can register by either August 30, 2014, if registering with a town clerk, or on election day. For the general election, the voter registration deadline is October 25, 2014 (10 days before election).[8]

See also: New Hampshire elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Jeanne Shaheen (D). Shaheen was first elected in 2008.

Candidates

General election candidates


September 9, 2014, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic Primary

Republican Party Republican Primary

Declined to run

Withdrew from race


Race background

On March 14, 2014, Brown announced in a speech at a major GOP conference in New Hampshire the launch of his exploratory committee, which allowed him to hire staff and raise money for a Senate run.[21]

People's pledge

In a letter sent March 15, 2014, incumbent Jeanne Shaheen (D) said she "very much admired the People's Pledge" that Scott Brown signed with Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2012, and called on him to sign the same pact in New Hampshire.[22]

"I believe it limited the influence of outside groups and allowed the people's voices to be heard," Shaheen wrote.[22]

Brown did not comment on the likelihood of signing a similar pledge.[22]

"It's hard to view Jeanne Shaheen's actions as anything other than hypocritical and self-serving. The people of New Hampshire can see through the Washington-style game she is playing," Brown responded.[22]

Super PAC coordination

Election laws strictly regulate direct communication between campaigns and third-party groups, so when Republicans allegedly found "a sample script and ready-for-television images" posted online by Shaheen's campaign, they viewed it as a signal to third-party groups that they should put up an ad using certain language and images. Republicans brought the complaint to the Federal Election Commission (FEC), asking them to investigate all communication between Shaheen's campaign and both the Senate Majority PAC and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC).[23]

Campaign spending

Some experts are predicting that the 2014 New Hampshire Senate race will break records in campaign spending for a state of New Hampshire's size. Campaign finance expert Dante Scala stated, “It wouldn’t shock me if it topped $50 million.”[24] Given the campaign history of both Scott Brown and Jeanne Shaheen, this prediction would be consistent with spending in their past elections. Shaheen's 2008 Senate race was the eighth most expensive race in 2008.[25]. Scott Brown's 2012 Senate race in Massachusetts was the most expensive Senate race in history, with $82 million spent.[26]

Mayday Super PAC

"Mayday," a super PAC that aims "to help elect lawmakers of both parties who support proposals to diminish the influence of big donors," announced that they would spend $4 million in campaign advertisements for New Hampshire's 2014 U.S. Senate race.[27] However, rather than supporting either party's front-runner, Mayday said that they would be supporting Republican candidate and former state Senator Jim Rubens in his primary against Scott Brown. In response to criticism for trying to fight big money's influence in politics by spending large amounts of money, co-founder Lawrence Lessig simply stated, "Embrace the irony."[27]

Media

Scott Brown

  • On January 7, 2014, the Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC, launched an attack ad claiming that Scott Brown was a friend of Wall Street and that "he's shopping for a Senate seat in New Hampshire." The group spent $160,000 to air the ad over a 10 day span. New Hampshire Republican State Committee Chair Jennifer Horn argued that the ad demonstrated that incumbent Rep. Jeanne Shaheen was "nervous" about her 2014 re-election bid.[28]
  • Brown released his first campaign ad in April 2014.[29]
  • Brown released another campaign ad in May 2014.[30]
  • The Senate Majority PAC released an ad in May 2014 attacking Brown for lobbying against an energy efficiency bill and for running immediately after moving to the district.[31]

Senate Majority PAC ad against Scott Brown

Scott Brown's first 2014 campaign ad

Scott Brown 2014 campaign ad

Senate Majority PAC ad attacking Scott Brown

NextGen Climate Action ad against Scott Brown

Jeanne Shaheen

  • Ending Spending, Inc., a nonprofit group associated with the Ending Spending Action Fund, released a campaign ad in December 2013 attacking incumbent Jeanne Shaheen for supporting the Affordable Care Act, or "Obamacare." The ad labeled Shaheen a liar for claiming that Obamacare would allow citizens to keep their insurance provider and increase choices.[33]
  • Shaheen released her first campaign ad on May 4, 2014.[34]
  • Shaheen released another campaign ad in May 2014, this time focusing on helping small businesses.[35]
  • Americans for Prosperity released an ad attacking Shaheen for supporting Obamacare, linking the healthcare law to a decrease in hospitals.[36]

Ending Spending ad against Jeanne Shaheen

Shaheen's first campaign ad

Shaheen ad released May 12, 2014

Americans for Prosperity ad attacking Shaheen

Polls

Republican primary polls

Republican primary candidates
Poll Scott Brown Jim RubensBob SmithKaren TestermanUndecidedDon’t Know / RefuseMargin of ErrorSample Size
Vox Populi Polling
(May 14-15, 2014)
38%9%13%8%28%4%+/-5.2707
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

General election polls

Scott Brown vs. Jeanne Shaheen
Poll Scott Brown (R) Jeanne Shaheen (D)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(August 7-17, 2014)
44%46%9%+/-4.0609
Magellan Strategies
(July 16-17, 2014)
41%46%13%+/-2.431,618
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(June 19-July 1, 2014)
38%50%12%+/-4.3509
Suffolk University
(June 14-18, 2014)[37]
39.38%49.38%8.75%+/-3.5800
Vox Populi Polling
(May 14-15, 2014)
35%47%13%+/-3.6707
Hickman Analytics, Inc.
(April 24-30, 2014)
43%49%8%+/-4.9400
Public Policy Polling
(April 7-8, 2014)
41%49%10%+/-3.11,034
Republican Governor's Association
(March 19-20, 2014)
49%44%8%+/-4.0600
Rasmussen Reports
(March12-13, 2014)
41%50%5%+/-4.0750
American Research Group
(March 13-16, 2014)
38%50%12%+/-4.2533
AVERAGES 40.94% 48.04% 9.88% +/-3.8 756
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Jeanne Shaheen vs. Bob Smith
Poll Jeanne Shaheen Bob SmithDon’t Know / UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(August 7-17, 2014)
50%36%13%+/-4.0609
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(June 19-July 1, 2014)
57%34%9%+/-4.3509
Suffolk University
(June 14-18, 2014)[38]
51.00%31.00%14.25%+/-3.5800
Vox Populi Polling
(May 14-15, 2014)
45%34%21%+/-3.6707
AVERAGES 50.75% 33.75% 14.31% +/-3.85 656.25
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org
Jeanne Shaheen vs. Jim Rubens
Poll Jeanne Shaheen Jim RubensOther / UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(August 7-17, 2014)
49%35%15%+/-4.0609
University of New Hampshire Survey Center
(June 19-July 1, 2014)
56%30%14%+/-4.3509
AVERAGES 52.5% 32.5% 14.5% +/-4.15 559
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

Endorsements

Jeanne Shaheen

Shaheen has received the following endorsements:

Scott Brown

Brown has received the following endorsements:

Campaign contributions

Candidate ballot accecss
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

Jeanne Shaheen

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Shaheen's reports.[42]

Jeanne Shaheen (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[43]July 15, 2013$375,297.42$1,230,582.99$(202,453.37)$140,342.04
July Quarterly[44]July 15, 2013$140,342.04$1,221,094.73$(446,199.19)$2,178,322.58
October Quarterly[45]October 15, 2013$2,178,322.58$951,174.85$(333,443.10)$2,796,054.33
Year-End Quarterly[46]December 31, 2013$2,796,054$1,022,094$(471,444)$3,393,918
April Quarterly[47]April 15, 2014$3,393,918.91$1,538,363.20$(581,000.97)$4,351,281.14
Running totals
$5,963,309.77$(2,034,540.63)

Scott Brown

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Brown's reports.[48]

Scott Brown (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[49]April 15, 2014$0.00$274,728.63$(0.00)$274,728.63
Running totals
$274,728.63$(0)

Bob Smith

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Smith's reports.[50]

Bob Smith (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Year-End[51]January 27, 2014$0.00$30,476.69$(8,804.00)$21,672.69
April Quarterly[52]April 15, 2014$21,672.69$187,378.53$(110,581.40)$98,469.82
Running totals
$217,855.22$(119,385.4)

Karen Testerman

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Testerman's reports.[53]

Karen Testerman (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
October Quarterly[54]October 15, 2013$0.00$7,090.00$(7.00)$7,083.00
Year-End[55]January 31, 2014$7,083.00$23,960.07$(28,239.00)$2,804.07
April Quarterly[56]April 15, 2014$2,804.07$0.00$(2,804.07)$0.00
Running totals
$31,050.07$(31,050.07)

Jim Rubens

Candidates for Congress are required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Rubens' reports.[57]

Jim Rubens (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
October Quarterly[58]March 25, 2014$0.00$269,859.61$(7,687.33)$262,172.28
Year-End[59]January 29, 2014$262,172.28$18,545.00$(24,769.98)$255,947.30
April Quarterly[60]April 15, 2014$255,947.30$24,502.00$(49,544.18)$230,905.12
Running totals
$312,906.61$(82,001.49)

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Ayotte was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated Paul W. Hodes (D), Chris Booth (Independent) and Ken Blevens (Libertarian).[61]

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngKelly Ayotte 60.1% 273,218
     Democratic Paul W. Hodes 36.8% 167,545
     Independent Chris Booth 2% 9,194
     Libertarian Ken Blevens 1% 4,753
Total Votes 454,710

2008

On November 4, 2008, Shaheen was elected to the United States Senate. She defeated incumbent John E. Sununu (R), Ken Blevens (Libertarian) and the write-in candidates.[62]

U.S. Senate, New Hampshire General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJeanne Shaheen 51.6% 358,438
     Republican John Sununu 45.3% 314,403
     Libertarian Ken Blevens 3.1% 21,516
     Write-ins 0.1% 430
Total Votes 694,787

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for August 22, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. 3.0 3.1 NECN, "Could Scott Brown get 'primaried out' of US Senate race?," accessed June 30, 2014
  4. 4.0 4.1 The Washington Post, "Scott Brown lurches to the right on guns," accessed August 20, 2014
  5. The Washington Times, "Scott Brown uses border fight in New Hampshire Senate push," accessed August 20, 2014
  6. The Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for June 26, 2014," accessed June 30, 2014
  7. New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
  8. New Hampshire Secretary of State Website, "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire," accessed January 3, 2014
  9. Gardner Goldsmith for US Senate, "Home," accessed May 23, 2014
  10. 10.0 10.1 Politico, "Ex-Sen. Bob Smith to seek his old New Hampshire seat," accessed December 2, 2013
  11. Washington Post, "Scott Brown is officially running for Senate in New Hampshire," accessed April 2, 2014
  12. Bloomberg, "Brown’s Move to New Hampshire Fuels Talk of Senate Race," accessed March 18, 2014
  13. Union Leader, "John DiStaso's Granite Status: Political comeback? Republican Charlie Bass considering 2014 Senate run against Jeanne Shaheen," accessed September 6, 2013
  14. Sentinel Source, "Senate candidate Jim Rubens stops in Keene and Surry, talks issues," accessed May 8, 2014
  15. Andy Martin for U.S. Senator, "Welcome," accessed May 8, 2014
  16. 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.5 New Hampshire Secretary of State, "2014 Filing Period," accessed June 23, 2014
  17. Washington Post, "Jeb Bradley rules out New Hampshire Senate run," accessed September 4, 2013
  18. Politico, "Charlie Bass won’t challenge Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire," accessed November 4, 2013
  19. Concord Monitor, "N.H. Republican activist Karen Testerman to run for U.S. Senate in 2014," accessed May 8, 2014
  20. Insurance News Net, "Testerman withdraws from GOP primary to back Smith for Senate," accessed June 23, 2014
  21. WSBT, "Scott Brown moves closer to Senate run in N.H.," accessed March 17, 2014
  22. 22.0 22.1 22.2 22.3 The Republic, "Shaheen asks Brown to agree to limit outside cash in Senate race; Brown calls her hypocritical," accessed March 18, 2014
  23. WMUR, "NHGOP seeks FEC investigation on Shaheen and Super PAC coordination," accessed May 8, 2014
  24. Boston Herald, "Scott Brown-Jeanne Shaheen N.H. race costs may set record," accessed May 8, 2014
  25. Open Secrets, "Most Expensive Races," accessed May 8, 2014
  26. The Washington Post, "The most expensive Senate races ever — and where Kentucky might fit in," accessed May 8, 2014
  27. 27.0 27.1 The New York Times, "Spending Big to Fight Big Donors in Campaigns," accessed July 30, 2014
  28. The Washington Post, "Senate Majority PAC launches ad hitting Scott Brown" January 8, 2014
  29. YouTube, "Scott Brown: Listening And Learning," accessed May 8, 2014
  30. YouTube, "Scott Brown: For New Hampshire," accessed May 28, 2014
  31. Roll Call, "Senate Majority PAC Ad Hits Brown on Energy Bill," accessed May 28, 2014
  32. YouTube, " 'Tap' - New Hampshire," accessed August 25, 2014
  33. YouTube, "Like Your Senator," accessed May 8, 2014
  34. Boston.com, "Shaheen Releases First Ad in New Hampshire Senate Race," accessed May 8, 2014
  35. YouTube, "Steel," accessed May 16, 2014
  36. YouTube, "Tell Sen. Shaheen: We Want Our Hospitals Back," accessed June 12, 2014
  37. Suffolk University News, "NH Poll Shows Shaheen Leading Brown by 10 Points in Senate Race," accessed June 24, 2014
  38. Suffolk University News, "NH Poll Shows Shaheen Leading Brown by 10 Points in Senate Race," accessed June 24, 2014
  39. Roll Call, "Angus King Rolls Out Bipartisan Senate Endorsements," accessed May 19, 2014
  40. 40.0 40.1 Boston Herald, "Angus King backs Senate colleague Jeanne Shaheen," accessed May 19, 2014
  41. Boston Herald, "Mitt Romney to endorse Scott Brown in N.H. Senate race," accessed June 30, 2014
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Shaheen 2014 Summary reports," accessed August 1, 2013
  43. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2013
  44. FEC, "July Quarterly," accessed August 1, 2013
  45. FEC, "October Quarterly," accessed October 30, 2013
  46. FEC, "Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 13, 2014
  47. FEC, "April Quarterly," accessed May 16, 2014
  48. Federal Election Commission, "Scott Brown Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  49. Federal Election Commission, "Scott Brown April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  50. Federal Election Commission, "Bob Smith Summary Report," accessed April 30, 2014
  51. Federal Election Commission, "Bob Smith Year-End," accessed April 30, 2014
  52. Federal Election Commission, "Bob Smith April Quarterly," accessed April 30, 2014
  53. Federal Election Commission, "Karen Testerman Summary Report," accessed May 8, 2014
  54. Federal Election Commission, "Karen Testerman October Quarterly," accessed May 8, 2014
  55. Federal Election Commission, "Karen Testerman Year-End," accessed May 8, 2014
  56. Federal Election Commission, "Karen Testerman April Quarterly," accessed May 8, 2014
  57. Federal Election Commission, "Jim Rubens Summary Report," accessed May 8, 2014
  58. Federal Election Commission, "Jim Rubens October Quarterly," accessed May 8, 2014
  59. Federal Election Commission, "Jim Rubens Year-End," accessed May 8, 2014
  60. Federal Election Commission, "Jim Rubens April Quarterly," accessed May 8, 2014
  61. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  62. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013