Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections in North Carolina, 2014"

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|Title=Kay Hagan vs. Alex Bradshaw
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|Poll1=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_311.pdf Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)]
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|Response1=Kay Hagan
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|Response2=Alex Bradshaw
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|Response3=Not sure
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|Numberpolled1=884
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|Margin of error1=3.3
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|Response1Poll1% = 43
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|Response2Poll1% = 43
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|Title=Kay Hagan vs. Edward Kryn
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|Poll1=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_311.pdf Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)]
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|Response1=Kay Hagan
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|Response2=Edward Kryn
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|Response3=Not sure
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|Numberpolled1=884
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|Margin of error1=3.3
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|Response1Poll1% = 43
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|Response2Poll1% = 41
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|Response3Poll1% = 16
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}}
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{{Poll2
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|Title=Kay Hagan vs. Jim Snyder
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|Poll1=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_311.pdf Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)]
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|Response1=Kay Hagan
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|Response2=Jim Snyder
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|Response3=Not sure
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|Numberpolled1=884
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|Margin of error1=3.3
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|Response1Poll1% = 42
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|Response2Poll1% = 43
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|Response3Poll1% = 16
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}}
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{{Poll2
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|Title=Kay Hagan vs. Ted Alexander
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|Poll1=[http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_311.pdf Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)]
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|Response1=Kay Hagan
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|Response2=Ted Alexander
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|Response3=Not sure
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|Numberpolled1=884
 +
|Margin of error1=3.3
 +
|Response1Poll1% = 43
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|Response2Poll1% = 45
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|Response3Poll1% = 12
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}}
  
 
{{Poll2
 
{{Poll2

Revision as of 14:59, 12 March 2014



CongressLogo.png

2014 U.S. Senate Elections in North Carolina

General Election Date
November 4, 2014

Primary Date
May 6, 2014

November 4 Election Winner:
Thom Tillis Republican Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Kay Hagan Democratic Party
Kay Hagan.jpg

Race Ratings
Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1]

Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[2]


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2014 U.S. House Elections

Flag of North Carolina.png
Voters in North Carolina will elect one member to the U.S. Senate in the election on November 4, 2014.
Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
February 28, 2014
May 6, 2014
November 4, 2014

Primary: North Carolina is one of 21 states with a mixed primary system. Parties decide who may vote, and they opened the primary election to unaffiliated voters. They may choose which ballot they want to vote on without affecting their unaffiliated status.[3]

Voter registration: To vote in the primary, voters had to register by April 11, 2014. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 10, 2014 (25 days before the day of the election).[4]

See also: North Carolina elections, 2014

Incumbent: The election will fill the Senate seat currently held by Kay Hagan (D). Hagan was first elected in 2008.

Candidates

Declined to run

Race background

Incumbent Kay Hagan is a Democratic senator in a red state, making her seat one of the most vulnerable in 2014. The unpopularity of President Obama's healthcare mandate, combined with it's poor implementation thus far, is likely to be a major issue that Hagan will have to overcome in order to win re-election.

Race ratings

Most vulnerable seats

The FiscalTimes compiled a list of the seven most vulnerable Senate seats up for election in 2014. The seven included in the list are: Alaska, Arkansas, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Going into the 2014 election, all seven seats are held by Democrats.[24]

Democrat Kay Hagan was "swept into office with the aid of presidential turnout in 2008."[24] This time around, there’s no presidential race above her on the ballot and turnout is expected to be down this time around.[24] Among the possible Republican candidates are North Carolina House Speaker Thom Tillis and Reps. Renee Ellmers, Patrick McHenry, Virginia Foxx, and George Holding.[24] Although recent polls show Hagan leading these potential challengers, her middling approval rating and the midterm dynamics make this race a toss-up.[24]

WaPo top 10 races

According to an analysis by The Washington Post, the U.S. Senate election in North Carolina was considered one of the top 10 Senate races of 2014. As of late 2013, Sen. Kay Hagan was already facing heat from the right. However, no clear Republican candidate had emerged.[25]

Polls

Kay Hagan vs. Greg Brannon
Poll Kay Hagan Greg BrannonNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)
43%44%14%+/-3.7701
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)
43%45%11%+/-2.71,281
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
43%43%14%+/-3.3884
AVERAGES 43% 44% 13% +/-3.23 955.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Heather Grant
Poll Kay Hagan Heather GrantNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)
43%40%17%+/-3.7701
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)
43%43%14%+/-2.71,281
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
43%42%15%+/-3.3884
AVERAGES 43% 41.67% 15.33% +/-3.23 955.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Mark Harris
Poll Kay Hagan Mark HarrisNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)
43%41%16%+/-3.7701
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)
43%43%14%+/-2.71,281
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
43%43%14%+/-3.3884
AVERAGES 43% 42.33% 14.67% +/-3.23 955.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Thom Tillis
Poll Kay Hagan Thom TillisNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)
44%42%14%+/-3.7701
Public Policy Polling (December 5-8, 2013)
44%42%14%+/-2.71,281
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
44%43%13%+/-3.3884
AVERAGES 44% 42.33% 13.67% +/-3.23 955.33
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Alex Bradshaw
Poll Kay Hagan Alex BradshawNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
43%43%14%+/-3.3884
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Edward Kryn
Poll Kay Hagan Edward KrynNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
43%41%16%+/-3.3884
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Jim Snyder
Poll Kay Hagan Jim SnyderNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
42%43%16%+/-3.3884
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Kay Hagan vs. Ted Alexander
Poll Kay Hagan Ted AlexanderNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (March 6-9, 2014)
43%45%12%+/-3.3884
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.
Republican primary candidates
Poll Greg Brannon Heather GrantMark HarrisThom TillisNot sureMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling (November 8-11, 2013)
11%8%14%20%47%+/-4.4498
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Potential Republican primary candidates
Poll Kay Hagan Cherie BerryPhil BergerRenee EllmersGreg BrannonThom TillisJim CainMark HarrisLynn WheelerMargin of ErrorSample Size
Public Policy Polling
May 17-20, 2013
15%14%10%10%7%6%4%3%3%+/-4.4500
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Issues

Obamacare

The Affordable Care Act is likely to be one of the biggest issues in this race. Incumbent Kay Hagan has defended her stance on the issue from attacks from groups such as Americans for Prosperity and the state's Republican Party. Hagan was asked about reported issues where some people with individual policies have had them canceled due to the Affordable Care Act. She responded, "People were told they would be able to keep their plans if they liked them, and I am co-sponsoring a bill to ensure that that happens."[26]

Government shutdown

Kay Hagan

See also: United States budget debate, 2013

Voted "Yes" During the shutdown in October 2013, the Senate rejected, down party lines, every House-originated bill that stripped the budget of funding for the Affordable Care Act. A deal was reached late on October 16, 2013, just hours before the debt ceiling deadline. The bill to reopen the government, H.R. 2775, lifted the $16.7 trillion debt limit and funds the government through January 15, 2014. Federal employees also received retroactive pay for the shutdown period. The only concession made by Senate Democrats was to require income verification for Obamacare subsidies.[27] The final vote on H.R. 2775 was 81-18, with all 18 votes against the bill from Republican members. Kay Hagan voted with the Democratic Party for the bill.[28]

Endorsements

Kay Hagan

Hagan was endorsed by Vice President Joe Biden, who campaigned for her in November 2013. He praised her as being able to work with Republicans, saying "The only way to break through this gridlock is with people who can earn the trust of people on the other team. That's why she's so valuable."[29]

Campaign contributions

Candidate ballot accecss
Ballot Access Requirements Final.jpg

Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington D.C.

Kay Hagan

Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Hagan’s reports.[30]

Kay Hagan (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[31]April 15, 2013$1,365,627.08$1,622,571.71$(279,822.20)$2,708,376
July Quarterly[32]July 15, 2013$2,708,376.59$2,057,465.19$(584,754.52)$4,181,087.26
October Quarterly[33]October 15, 2013$4,181,087.26$1,848,077.98$(629,713.58)$5,399,451.66
Year-End Quarterly[34]December 31, 2013$5,399,451$1,788,454$(655,951)$6,815,279
April Quarterly[35]April 14, 2014$6,815,244.25$2,802,157.60$(1,116,329.62)$8,501,072.23
Pre-Primary[36]July 10, 2014$8,500,187.23$521,299.67$(399,068.10)$8,622,418.80
July Quarterly[37]August 8, 2014$8,622,468.80$3,409,193.88$(3,302,311.74)$8,729,350.94
October Quarterly[38]October 8, 2014$8,729,350.94$4,887,690.85$(11,627,067.26)$2,989,974.53
Pre-General[39]October 20, 2014$1,989,974.53$1,390,661.03$(2,400,480.16)$980,155.40
Running totals
$20,327,571.91$(20,995,498.18)

Thom Tillis

Candidates for Congress were required to file reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2014 elections season. Below are Tillis' reports.[40]

Thom Tillis (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
July Quarterly[41]July 15, 2013$0.00$277,922.08$(22,916.56)$255,005.52
October Quarterly[42]October 15, 2013$255,005.52$811,675.98$(227,964.43)$838,717.07
Year-End[43]April 15, 2014$838,717.07$714,326.17$(266,132.65)$1,286,910.59
April Quarterly[44]April 15, 2014$1,286,910.59$1,308,066.86$(1,272,540.04)$1,322,437.41
Running totals
$3,111,991.09$(1,789,553.68)

Greg Brannon

Greg Brannon (2014) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
April Quarterly[45]April 15, 2013$0.00$47,124.00$(28,167.14)$18,956.86
July Quarterly[46]July 24, 2013$17,956.86$71,054.58$(42,850.82)$46,160.62
October Quarterly[47]October 15, 2013$41,001.62$155,743.02$(91,481.88)$105,262.76
Running totals
$273,921.6$(162,499.84)

Media

Supporting Kay Hagan

Senate Majority PAC spent close to $750,000 in December 2013 on an ad supporting Hagan's work to protect Medicare and Social Security.[48]


"Count on:" Ad supporting Kay Hagan

Opposing Kay Hagan

Americans for Prosperity spent $1.7 million to release an ad attacking Kay Hagan for her position on Obamacare.


Ad attacking Kay Hagan on Obamacare

Election history

2010

On November 2, 2010, Richard Burr (R) won re-election to the United States Senate. He defeated Elaine Marshall (D) and Michael Beitler (L) in the general election.[49]

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngRichard Burr incumbent 54.8% 1,458,046
     Democratic Elaine Marshall 43% 1,145,074
     Libertarian Michael Beitler 2.1% 55,687
     N/A Write-in 0% 1,272
Total Votes 2,660,079

2008

On November 4, 2008, Kay Hagan (D) won election to the United States Senate. She defeated Elizabeth Dole (R) and Christopher Cole (L) in the general election.[50]

U.S. Senate, North Carolina General Election, 2008
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKay Hagan 52.7% 2,249,311
     Republican Elizabeth Dole 44.2% 1,887,510
     Libertarian Christopher Cole 3.1% 133,430
     N/A Write-in 0% 1,719
Total Votes 4,271,970
Source: [1]

See also

External links

References

  1. Cook Political Report, "2014 Senate Race Ratings for August 22, 2014," accessed August 25, 2014
  2. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 Senate Races," accessed August 25, 2014
  3. NC Election Connection, "Who Can Vote in Which Elections?," accessed January 3, 2014
  4. North Carolina Center for Voter Education, "Register to Vote in North Carolina," accessed January 3, 2014
  5. Campaign website, "Home," accessed March 3, 2014
  6. 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Southern Political Report "North Carolina: GOPers Circling Around Hagan" Accessed May 23, 2013
  7. Associated Press "APNewsBreak: Tillis says he'll run for US Senate" Accessed June 3, 2013
  8. Gregbrannon.com "About," Accessed June 28, 2013
  9. ctpost.com, "NC minister Harris planning bid for US Senate," September 12, 2013
  10. Heather Grant Campaign website, accessed November 19, 2013
  11. ]http://tedforsenate.com/ Campaign website, "Home," accessed March 3, 2014]
  12. Campaign website, "Home," accessed March 3, 2014
  13. North Carolina Board of Elections, "Candidate List Group by Contest," accessed March 11, 2014
  14. Campaign Facebook page, "Home," accessed March 6, 2014
  15. Campaign Facebook page, "Home," accessed March 6, 2014
  16. WRAL.com, "Brunstetter considering US Senate bid," September 18, 2013
  17. WRAL "Berry won't run for US Senate against Hagan" Accessed May 31, 2013
  18. 18.0 18.1 National Journal "N.C. Labor Commissioner Considering Run Against Hagan" Accessed June 24, 2013
  19. Roll Call "North Carolina: McHenry Won’t Run Against Hagan" Accessed June 24, 2013
  20. The Washington Post, "Renee Ellmers won’t run for Senate," July 30, 2013
  21. The Bellingham Herald, "US Rep Virginia Foxx won't enter US Senate race," August 20, 2013
  22. Washington Post, "Republican Phil Berger won’t challenge Sen. Kay Hagan", accessed September 23, 2013
  23. Roll Call "Ambassador Eyeing Kay Hagan Challenge" Accessed May 20, 2013
  24. 24.0 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 Fiscal Times " 7 Senate Seats Most at Risk—Hint: They’re All Blue" Accessed February 15, 2013
  25. The Washington Post, "The Fix’s top 10 Senate races of 2014," accessed December 10, 2013
  26. WRAL.com, "Senate campaign takes shape early," November 10, 2013
  27. The Washington Post, "Reid, McConnell propose bipartisan Senate bill to end shutdown, extend borrowing," accessed October 16, 2013
  28. Senate.gov, "H.R. 2775 As Amended," accessed October 31, 2013
  29. CNN Politics, "Biden campaigns for vulnerable Senate Democrat," November 15, 2013
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan Summary Report," accessed August 3, 2013
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan April Quarterly," accessed August 3, 2013
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan July Quarterly," accessed August 3, 2013
  33. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan October Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  34. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan Year-End Quarterly," accessed February 13, 2014
  35. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan April Quarterly," accessed May 8, 2014
  36. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan Pre-Primary," accessed November 3, 2014
  37. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan July Quarterly," accessed November 3, 2014
  38. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan October Quarterly," accessed November 3, 2014
  39. Federal Election Commission, "Kay Hagan Pre-General," accessed November 3, 2014
  40. Federal Election Commission, "Thom Tillis Summary Report," accessed May 8, 2014
  41. Federal Election Commission, "Thom Tillis July Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  42. Federal Election Commission, "Thom Tillis October Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  43. Federal Election Commission, "Thom Tillis Year-End," accessed May 8, 2014
  44. Federal Election Commission, "Thom Tillis April Quarterly," accessed May 8, 2014
  45. Federal Election Commission, "Greg Brannon April Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  46. Federal Election Commission, "Greg Brannon July Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  47. Federal Election Commission, "Greg Brannon October Quarterly," accessed October 28, 2013
  48. Roll Call, "Democratic Super PAC Drops Major Buy in North Carolina," December 5, 2013
  49. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
  50. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013