Difference between revisions of "United States Senate elections in Pennsylvania, 2012"

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Revision as of 08:00, 28 April 2014



CongressLogo.png

2012 U.S. Senate Elections in Pennsylvania

CandidatesPollsElection History

November 6 Election Winner:
Bob Casey, Jr. Democratic Party
Incumbent prior to election:
Bob Casey, Jr. Democratic Party
Bob Casey.jpg

Cook Political Report Race Rating
     Lean D (Prior to election)

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2012 U.S. House Elections

Flag of Pennsylvania.png
Voters in Pennsylvania elected one member to the U.S. Senate in the November 6, 2012 elections.

Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. (D) won re-election on November 6, 2012.[1]

Candidate Filing Deadline Primary Election General Election
February 14, 2012
April 24, 2012
November 6, 2012

Primary: Pennsylvania has a closed primary system, meaning only registered members of a particular party may vote in that party's primary.

Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by March 25. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 7.[2]

See also: Pennsylvania elections, 2012

Incumbent: The election will fill the Class 1 Senate seat, which is currently held by Bob Casey, Jr. (D). First elected in 2006, Casey ran for re-election in 2012, and won.

Election results

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngBob Casey, Jr. Incumbent 53.7% 3,021,364
     Republican Tom Smith 44.6% 2,509,132
     Libertarian Rayburn Douglas Smith 1.7% 96,926
Total Votes 5,627,422
Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

Candidates

General election candidates

Democratic Party Bob Casey, Jr. Green check mark transparent.png
Republican Party Tom Smith
Libertarian Party Rayburn Smith


April 24, 2012, primary results

Democratic Party Democratic primary

Republican Party Republican primary

Withdrawn:

Race background

Democratic incumbent Bob Casey, Jr. ran for re-election in 2012. Casey was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2006, when he unseated future Republican presidential hopeful Rick Santorum. Casey has enjoyed high approval ratings throughout his first term in Congress. His popularity has withstood the impact of fluctuations in President Obama's standing within the party, and his conservative positions on issues like gun control and abortion lend him cross-over appeal from Independents and Republicans, as indicated by polling data heading into November's general election.[8]

Casey was unopposed in the Democratic primary election on April 24, but faced two challengers in the general election, including Republican businessman Tom Smith.[9] Smith defeated a handful of candidates for his party's nomination in the primary, and is estimated to pose a modest threat to Casey's re-election. Smith ran a well-funded campaign highlighted by a series of TV spots criticizing Casey's record on economic stimulus and job creation, and Smith both outraised and outspent Casey in the third campaign finance quarter.[10] In early October, Smith's momentum looked to be either gaining or diminishing, due to contradicting polls and race projections. The Cook Political Report down-shifted its rating from likely Democratic to leaning Democratic in October and a poll from Muhlenberg College showed Casey's lead narrowing to two points over Smith.[11] Almost simultaneously, a Public Policy Poll was released showing Casey ahead 50-39, the widest margin seen since August.[8]

Libertarian Rayburn Smith also ran for the U.S. Senate seat in the November 6, 2012, general election.[12]

Primary Results

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania Republican Primary, 2012
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTom Smith 39.5% 299,726
Sam Rohrer 22.3% 169,118
John Marc Scaringi 6.8% 51,908
David Christian 10.5% 79,581
Steve Welch 20.9% 158,181
Total Votes 758,514

[edit]

Cook Political Report

Each month the Cook Political Report releases race ratings for President, U.S. Senate, U.S. House (competitive only) and Governors. There are seven possible designations:[13]

     Solid Democratic
     Likely Democratic
     Lean Democratic

     Tossup

     Lean Republican
     Likely Republican
     Solid Republican

Cook Political Report Race Rating -- Pennsylvania Senate
Month Rating
October 4, 2012[14]     
August 17, 2012[15]     
July 12, 2012[16]     
May 31, 2012[17]     
May 10, 2012[18]     
March 22, 2012[19]     
March 1, 2012[20]     
January 26, 2012[21]     
December 22, 2011[22]     
December 1, 2011[23]     

In August, 2012, The Cook Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball rate the Senate race as likely Democratic.[24]

2012 General Election

October-present

Pennsylvania's Senate Election, 2012
Poll Bob Casey (D) Tom Smith (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Siena College Research Institute Poll
(October 1-5, 2012)
44%35%16%+/-4.2545
Susquehanna Poll
October 4-6, 2012)
46%44%9%+/-3.7725
The Morning Call/Muhlenberg College
(October 10-14, 2012)
41%39%18%+/-5.0438
Public Policy Polling
(October 12-14, 2012)
50%39%11%+/-4.4500
Muhlenberg College
(October 17-21, 2012)
42%34%22%+/-5.0444
Rasmussen Reports Poll
(October 24, 2012)
46%45%9%+/-4.5500
Harstad Strategic Research/DSCC Poll
(October 21-24, 2012)
52%40%8%+/-3.5810
Philadelphia Inquirer Poll
(October 23-25, 2012)
49%42%9%+/-4.0600
Franklin & Marshall Poll
(October 23-28, 2012)
46%35%14%+/-3.4849
Public Policy Poll
(November 2-3, 2012)
52%44%3%+/-3.5790
AVERAGES 46.8% 39.7% 11.9% +/-4.12 620.1
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

July-September

Pennsylvania's Senate Election, 2012
Poll Bob Casey (D) Tom Smith (R)UndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Rasmussen Reports Poll
(July 18, 2012)
49%38%9%+/-4.5500
Public Policy Polling
(July 21-23, 2012)
46%36%18%+/-3.56758
Quinnipiac University Poll
(July 24-30, 2012)
55%37%8%+/-2.91,168
Franklin & Marshall College Poll
(August 7-12, 2012)
35%23%39%+/-3.8681
Rasmussen Reports Poll
(September 29, 2012)
49%42%7%+/-4.5500
Quinnipiac University Poll
September 18-24
49%43%8%+/-2.91,180
AVERAGES 47.17% 36.5% 14.83% +/-3.69 797.83
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org

**The September 19th Rasmussen Poll reported 2% of surveyed likely voters favored another candidate in the race.**

Bob Casey

Casey's 2012 re-election campaign was endorsed by:

  • The Philadelphia Inquirer
  • The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.[25]

Tom Smith

Smith's 2012 bid for Senate was endorsed by:

  • The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
  • Governor Tom Ridge.[26]

General Election candidates

Bob Casey, Jr. (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Pre-Primary Report[27]April 12, 2012$0$1,367,060.78$(560,037.07)$5,268,118.34
July Quarterly[28]July 15, 2012$5,268,118.34$1,437,519.66$(505,773.93)$6,226,560.41
October Quarterly[29]October 15, 2012$6,226,560.41$1,517,483$(2,536,892.70)$5,207,150.97
Running totals
$4,322,063.44$(3,602,703.7)
Tom Smith (2012) Campaign Finance Reports
ReportDate FiledBeginning BalanceTotal Contributions
for Reporting Period
ExpendituresCash on Hand
Pre-Primary Report[30]April 12, 2012$0$443,860.49$(2,971,041.39)$1,960,443.54
July Quarterly[31]July 15, 2012$1,960,443.54$703,315.46$(1,891,594.97)$2,280,655.41
October Quarterly[32]October 15, 2012$2,280,655.41$11,646,789.87$(6,834,954.70)$7,092,490.58
Running totals
$12,793,965.82$(11,697,591.06)

Contents
1 Campaign sites
2 Campaign advertisements
2.1 Bob Casey ads
2.2 Tom Smith ads
2.3 PAC ads

Campaign websites

Tom Smith

Bob Casey

Rayburn Smith

Advertisements

The following is a selection of audio and video for some of the U.S. Senate candidates. Some were released by candidates, others by PACs or local media.

Bob Casey


"Ryan"

"Harley"

"American People"

"Armor"

Casey calls Smith radical for supporting Tea Party legislation threatening to medicare in "The Most"

Casey criticizes Smith in "Cup of Tea"

Tom Smith


"The Smith Plan"

"Different"

"Where I Stand"

"Big Dreams"

Smith goes after Casey's record on taxes and medicare in "Facts"

Smith calls Casey the "Invisible Senator"

PAC ads


Majority PAC ad titled "Education" emphasizes Smith's plan to cut the Department of Education


2010

On November 2, 2010, Pat Toomey won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Joe Sestak in the general election.[33]

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2010
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngPat Toomey 51% 2,028,945
     Democrat Joe Sestak 49% 1,948,716
Total Votes 3,977,661

2006

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr. won election to the United States Senate. He defeated Rick Santorum in the general election.[34]

U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania General Election, 2006
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democrat Green check mark transparent.pngBob Casey, Jr. 58.7% 2,392,984
     Republican Rick Santorum 41.3% 1,684,778
Total Votes 4,077,762

See also

External links

Tom Smith

Bob Casey

Rayburn Smith

References

  1. ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
  2. Pennsylvania Department of State "Registration Deadlines," accessed June 28, 2012
  3. Morning Call, "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election," accessed January 6, 2012
  4. 4.0 4.1 4.2 Essential Public Radio "Senate, Congressional Races in Southwestern Pennsylvania On Primary Day," April 24, 2012
  5. Pike County Republican Committee "David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race," accessed January 6, 2012
  6. Philadelphia Inquirer "Sam Rohrer seeking Pa. GOP nomination for U.S. Senate," accessed February 18, 2012
  7. Politics PA "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns," accessed February 18, 2012
  8. 8.0 8.1 Public Policy Poll, "Obama and Casey lead in Pennsylvania," October 15, 2012
  9. Pennsylvania Independent "Incumbents fall in PA House, congressional races," April 24, 2012
  10. Tom Smith for Senate Press Release, "Smith outraises Casey, more cash on hand," October 15, 2012
  11. The Cook Political Report, "Senate: Race Ratings," October 4, 2012
  12. PA Department of State 2012 Official Primary Results
  13. Cook Political Report "Our Accuracy," accessed December 12, 2011
  14. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," October 4, 2012
  15. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," August 17, 2012
  16. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," July 12, 2012
  17. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 31, 2012
  18. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," May 10, 2012
  19. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 22, 2012
  20. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," March 1, 2012
  21. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," January 26, 2012
  22. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 27, 2011
  23. Cook Political Report "2012 SENATE RACE RATINGS," December 1, 2011
  24. Center for Politics, "Sabato's Crystal Ball 2012 Senate race ratings," August 28, 2012
  25. Bob Casey Official Campaign Website, "News," accessed October 16, 2012
  26. Tom Smith for Senate News, "Governor Tom Ridge endorses Tom Smith," accessed October 16, 2012
  27. Federal Election Commission, "Bob Casey for Senate Reports," April 12, 2012
  28. Federal Election Commission, "Bob Casey for Senate Reports," July 13, 2012
  29. Federal Election Commission, "Bob Casey October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
  30. Federal Election Commission, "Tom Smith for Senate Reports," April 12, 2012
  31. Federal Election Commission, "Tom Smith for Senate Reports," July 13, 2012
  32. Federal Election Commission, "Tom Smith October Quarterly Report," October 15, 2012
  33. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010"
  34. U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006"