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2012 gubernatorial race trackers
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The Cook Political Report
The Washington D.C. based Cook Political Report is a nonpartisan political reporting service affiliated with the National Journal. It tracks and rates races for governors' seats in addition to U.S. House and Senate seats.
According to the site, it analyzes the vulnerability of a sitting governor or of the party in power as follows:
Solid: These races are not considered competitive and are not likely to become closely contested.
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races but one party has an advantage.
Toss Up: These are the most competitive races; either party has a good chance of winning.
Cook published initial race ratings in December 2010 for both the 2011 and 2012 cycles. Ratings are revisited and revised periodically.
| Month | Solid D | Likely D | Lean D | Tossup | Lean R | Likely R | Solid R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 20, 2011 Ratings[1] | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| December 7, 2010 Initial Ratings[2] | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
- Cook is rating West Virginia, which is holding elections in both 2011 and 2012, as one rating.
Governing Politics
Governing Politics is an online magazine dedicated to covering state level political and policy news. It is largely written for professionals and is based out of Washington D.C.
The magazine interviews a total of nine political analysts and consider political trends, recent election returns, and the national mood in ranking races.
Gubernatorial races are categorized into one of seven categories are are, across those rankings, individually rank-ordered as to the likelihood of the state being GOP held (#1) to Democratically held. Because the races held in 2011 and 2012 are being ranked as one overall cycle, the current rankings goes from 1 to 14.
- Within that system, the 2012 races earned the following initial ranking as being most likely to end in Republican hands:
- Utah: #1
- North Dakota: #4
- Indiana: #5
- North Carolina: #6
- Montana: #7
- West Virginia: #9
- Washington: #10
- Missouri: #11
- Vermont: #12
- New Hampshire: #13
- Delaware: #14
| Month | Solid Democratic | Likely Democratic | Lean Democratic | Tossup | Lean Republican | Likely Republican | Solid Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 2010 Initial Ratings[3] | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball
Larry J. Sabato is an Arlington, Virginia based political commentator and a published author. His website is run through the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The "Crystal Ball" has forecast gubernatorial, House, and Senate races since its 2004 founding.
| Month | Safe Democrat | Likely Democrat | Leans Democrat | Toss-up | Leans Independent | Leans Republican | Likely Republican | Safe Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 8, 2011 Rankings[4] | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| March 10, 2011 Rankings[5] | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| January 13, 2011 Initial Rankings[6] | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
The Rothenberg Political Report
The Rothenberg Political Report is a Washington D.C. based political newsletter, covering Governors, the House and Senate, and Presidential races from a nonpartisan stance.
It is run by Stuart Rothenberg, a political commentator and columnist for Capitol Hill newspaper Roll Call.
| Month | Safe D | D Favored | Lean D | Toss-up Leaning D | Pure Toss-up | Lean I | Toss-up Leaning R | Lean R | R Favored | Safe R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 11, 2011[7] | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
See also
- Gubernatorial elections, 2012
- Delaware gubernatorial election, 2012
- Indiana gubernatorial election, 2012
- Missouri gubernatorial election, 2012
- Montana gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2012
- New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2012
- North Carolina gubernatorial election, 2012
- North Dakota gubernatorial election, 2012
- Utah gubernatorial election, 2012
- Vermont gubernatorial election, 2012
- Washington gubernatorial election, 2012
- West Virginia gubernatorial election, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2011/2012 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS JANUARY 20, 2011" accessed April 27, 2011
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2011/2012 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS DECEMBER 16, 2010" accessed April 27, 2011
- ↑ Governing Politics, “Looking Ahead: The 2011-2012 Gubernatorial Landscape”, December 2, 2010
- ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “Recent Governor Analysis”, April 8, 2011
- ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “The Early Line—Second Take: 15 Governorships of 2011-12”, March 10, 2011
- ↑ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball', “The Early Line: 14 Governorships of 2011-12”, January 13, 2011
- ↑ Rothenberg Political Report, "2011-12 Gubernatorial Outlook (April 1, 2011)", April 1, 2011
