2013 Elections Preview: Some seats may switch parties in the Virginia House of Delegates
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Virginia's 2013 elections Governor • Lt. Gov • Attorney General • State legislative special elections • State House • Candidate ballot access |
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October 4, 2013
By Ballotpedia's State legislative team
In the 2013 elections for the Virginia House of Delegates, the Democrats are seeking to make inroads into the Republican majorities built up during the 2009 and 2011 state legislative elections. Democratic candidates would have to win a net of 19 seats from Republican officeholders or the Republican candidates seeking to succeed them. In the 2013 elections for the Virginia House of Delegates, all 100 seats are up for election.
Polling and analysis
According to a September 2013 poll of Virginia voters, 47 percent approved of the job the General Assembly was doing, while 32 percent disapproved. About 80 percent of those polled favored term limits for the General Assembly.[1]
A July 2013 poll of the state's voters suggests that Democratic state legislative candidates lead in the "generic ballot" by 46 percent to 42 percent, and a January 2013 poll by the same firm yielded similar results.[2][3] However, political analyst Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics wrote in August 2013 that Republicans were "certain to retain control of Virginia House of Delegates."[4]
Skelley also noted that state Democrats have effectively yielded a seat to the Republican caucus already, as District 4 Delegate Joe Johnson (D) is retiring from a district that has trended very Republican since he first took office in 1990, and only A. Benton Chafin (R) is running to replace him. This projected defeat for Democrats suggests that they would need to have a net gain of 20 seats to take over the chamber, and Skelley says that they may win five or six seats from Republicans.[4]
Ballotpedia's own Competitiveness Index suggests that the 2013 Virginia House of Delegates races may be somewhat more competitive than the last cycle, with more delegates challenged overall and more balance between Republican and Democratic incumbents going unchallenged than in the 2011 House of Delegates elections.
Skelley suggested that the level of success Democratic candidates for the House of Delegates have depends substantially on the electoral performance of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe. A close gubernatorial race, according to Skelley, will likely keep the number of seats that switch control between parties relatively small.[4]
| Virginia House of Delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 4, 2013 | After the 2013 Election | |
| Democratic Party | 32 | 33 | |
| Republican Party | 65 | 67 | |
| Independent | 1 | 0 | |
| Vacancy | 2 | 0 | |
| Total | 100 | 100 | |
Competitive races
Most competitive races
Skelley, the University of Virginia's Center for Politics analyst, has identified three races that he considered the most competitive in the state.[4]
Potentially competitive races
Skelley also highlighted 16 other races that he considers potentially competitive.[4]
Races to watch
The list below highlights all of the races that may result in party-switches, surprises, or indications of other electoral trends on election night. The list and associated descriptions have been compiled based on the analysis of Geoffrey Skelley, the races targeted by national pro-Democratic PAC Democracy for America, election results data and information collected by the left-leaning blog Daily Kos, data from the Virginia Public Access Project, and information from other news sources about individual races.
District 2
Michael Futrell
Mark Dudenhefer (inc.)
Incumbent Dudenhefer faces political newcomer Futrell in this new and fast-growing exurban and suburban district south of Washington, DC. The district gave Governor Bob McDonnell (R) 58 percent of the vote in 2009, but Democrats hope to replicate the results of 2012, when President Barack Obama (D) earned 58 percent of the vote in this district. Dudenhefer was elected in the 2011 cycle, so he has not been in office long. However, Futrell did post information copied from another candidate's website on his own page, reportedly mistakenly, which some have interpreted as indicating a lack of organization in his campaign.[5][6][7]
District 6
Incumbent Anne B. Crockett-Stark (R) is not seeking re-election, leaving the race in this usually Republican district an open seat. Presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) won 66 percent of the vote in this district in 2012, and McDonnell won 72 percent in 2009. Despite the uphill climb, Democrats are apparently making a strong bid for this seat with McGrady, a candidate who has a concealed weapons permit, an aversion to tax increases, and a door-knocking campaign despite the occasional unfriendly dog. The addition of a minor-party challenger could complicate the race more for Republican candidate Campbell, but Democratic candidates may likely win elsewhere before they score a victory in this district.[8][4]
District 10
- Monte Johnson
- Randall Minchew (inc.)
If Democrats are having a very good night, Johnson might defeat first-term incumbent Minchew in this district, which is mostly in the politically-mixed Loudoun County. However, Romney still edged Obama with 51 percent of the vote here in 2012, and McDonnell won with a comfortable 62 percent in 2009.[9][7][10]
District 12
- James Harder
- Joseph Yost (inc.)
Harder is a Ph.D. student and former Congressional staffer running in a district held by Democrats for years until 2011, when incumbent Yost won the district with just under 52 percent of the vote. Obama won 51 percent of the vote within this district's borders in 2012, and McDonnell captured 51 percent of the vote here in 2009, suggesting this is truly a swing district. However, Yost's moderate views and record have won him the endorsement of LGBT rights group Equality Virginia PAC, which did not endorse any other Republicans this election cycle, and the award "2013 Legislative Champion of the Year" from the Virginia Education Association. Harder's campaign has been endorsed by the pro-Democratic group Democracy for America.[11][12][13][4][14]
District 13
- Atif Qarni
- Bob Marshall (inc.)
Incumbent Marshall, who ran for the Republican nomination to the United States Senate in both 2008 and 2012, authored the amendment to the Virginia Constitution defining marriage as between one man and one woman and has faced a petition for his resignation after he made comments critical of women who undergo abortions. Although District 13 did yield 61 percent of the vote for McDonnell in 2009, Obama won 55 percent of the vote in 2012 from this district on the edge of Washington, DC's exurban area. Marhsall's Democratic opponent, military veteran and mathematics teacher Qarni, has won the support and resources of Democracy for America and opened a campaign office in the district in early August 2013. However, despite occasionally controversial comments, Marshall's base of support in the district is reportedly quite strong.[15][16][4][17][18]
District 14
Incumbent Marshall was first elected to the House of Delegates in 2001, but this district bordering North Carolina split evenly between Obama and Romney in 2012, causing some to speculate about Marshall's chances for re-election. Marshall faces cardiologist and Danville Vice Mayor Miller and self-described conservative and former local school board member Martin, who is criticizing Marshall for voting to increase taxes.[4][7][19]
District 17
- Freeda Cathcart
- Chris Head (inc.)
Cathcart is running a second time against incumbent Head after losing to him 66 percent to 34 percent in the 2011 election. Romney won 59 percent of the vote in this district that wraps around Roanoke in 2012, and McDonnell won with 67 percent of the vote in 2009. Given this uphill climb, Democrats may have little chance of winning this seat, but Cathcart has been endorsed by Democracy for America, which indicates that some on the political left believe this race is worth an investment of resources.[4][7][20][21]
District 21
Incumbent Villanueva is running for his third-term in this district between Virginia Beach and Norfolk. The district gave McDonnell 61 percent of the vote in 2009, but Obama won it with 52 percent of the vote in 2012, making this district a potential Democratic target and one Democrats would likely have to win if they want to have a majority in the Virginia House of Delegates with the current district map. However, observers have not rated this district as likely to flip.[4][7][22]
District 30
- Traci Dippert
- Ed Scott (inc.)
Incumbent Scott first took office about a decade ago, and may be relatively safe in this rural district that gave Romney 56 percent of the vote in 2012 and McDonnell 68 percent of the vote in 2009. Scott ran unopposed in 2011, and only had minor-party opposition in 2009. Democrats, including the group Democracy for America, appear to be rallying around teacher and Democratic activist Dippert, who matched Scott's fundraising through mid-September 2013. However, Dippert's fundraising base is relatively narrow, and this district may be beyond the reach of Democrats.[23][24][25]
District 31
- Jeremy McPike
- Scott Lingamfelter (inc.)
Despite being in a district that gave Obama 53 percent of the vote in 2012, incumbent Lingamfelter's history of defeating challengers works in favor of the Republicans holding this seat. Lingamfelter won in 2011 with 59 percent of the vote after his uncontested re-election bid in 2009. Democrats, including the Democracy for America PAC, have been pushing City of Alexandria general services director and volunteer fire fighter McPike as an alternative, but observers suggest this race, while worth watching, may likely result in victory for the Republicans.[4][7][26]
District 32
Incumbent Greason is seeking his third term in this Loudoun County district of Northern Virginia. Loudoun County is a key battleground between Democrats and Republicans in the state, and this race is one of several in the county attracting attention from outside groups. Greason had no opposition in 2011 and McDonnell did quite well here in 2009, but Obama won 52 percent of the vote out of this district in 2012.[4][7][27][10][28]
District 34
- Kathleen Murphy
- Barbara Comstock (inc.)
Comstock won re-election to the House of Delegates for a second term. She first won election by a little over 400 votes in 2011. This suburban and exurban district split evenly between President Barack Obama (D) and presidential candidate Mitt Romney (R) in 2012. Comstock's raised nearly $900,000 for her re-election bid in 2011. Democracy for America endorsed Murphy and had donated $8,000 to her campaign as of early September 2013.[4][7][10][29]
District 35
- Mark Keam (inc.)
- Leiann Leppin Luse
After running unopposed in 2011 but only winning his seat by a margin of less than 400 votes in 2009, Keam will face a Republican challenger in 2013. Luse, a project manager and analyst, hopes to unseat this two-term Democratic incumbent, but the district awarded Obama with 59 percent of the vote in 2012 and McDonnell with 49 percent in 2009. Republicans will likely be having a very good night if they capture this seat.[4][30]
District 37
- David Bulova (inc.)
- Patrice Winter
Incumbent Bulova defeated a Republican lobbyist opponent in 2011 with almost 60 percent of the vote, but observers think that Winter, a former Fairfax City Council member and a professor, may make this seat competitive. Obama won 60 percent of the vote in this district in 2012, but McDonnell won this district with 53 percent of the vote in 2009, which was a year when Bulova faced only minor-party opposition.[4][31]
District 41
Incumbent Filler-Corn was first elected to the chamber in a 2010 special election, and she won by only 37 votes. Despite that narrow victory, her only opposition after redistricting in 2011 was a Libertarian candidate who managed to garner over 30 percent of the vote. This cycle, Filler-Corn faces Republican challenger Burgos and anti-corruption activist and rap video producer DeCarlo in a race for this district that gave Obama 57 percent of the vote in 2012 and McDonnell 53 percent in 2009. DeCarlo's presence in the race may complicate matters for Filler-Corn, and he is an experienced candidate after frequent runs for office, but he has not raised any money for his campaign.[32][33][4]
District 50
Incumbent Miller ran unopposed in 2011 and easily defeated a Democratic challenger in 2009. However, this district swung from giving McDonnell 63 percent of the vote in 2009 to giving Obama 54 percent of the vote in 2012, catching the eye of some political observers.[34][4]
District 51
- Reed Heddleston
- Richard Anderson (inc.)
Incumbent Anderson first won election in 2009 with a 299 vote margin, but ran uncontested after redistricting in 2011. The district on the southwestern fringes of the Washington, DC, urban area, however, is still arguably quite competitive. Obama won 51 percent of the vote there in 2012 after McDonnell earned 62 percent from the district in 2009. Heddleston, Anderson's opponent, is an Air Force veteran focusing on transportation issues.[4][35][7]
District 60
Incumbent Edmunds is seeking his third term and ran unopposed in 2009 and 2011, but this rural district only gave a slim margin of victory, about 51 percent of the vote, to Republican Romney in the 2012 election. Hendricks, an activist, has run for office before and appears to have attracted a fair amount of attention to his candidacy, including an endorsement from Democracy for America. However, Democrats remain at a significant disadvantage in this rural southwestern district.[36][7]
District 67
- Hung Nguyen
- James LeMunyon (inc.)
This exurban Washington, DC, district re-elected incumbent LeMunyon with a comfortable 59 percent of the vote in 2011, and McDonnell won 58 percent of the vote here in 2009. However, Obama earned 53 percent of the vote here in 2012, suggesting that the district could elect a Democratic candidate. Nguyen is making a specific pitch for high turnout among the local Vietnamese-American community, but LeMunyon won in a tough race as recently as 2009.[37]
District 75
- Roz Tyler (inc.)
- Alvin Peschke
Incumbent Tyler is facing a rematch against Peschke, but he only won 34 percent of the vote in their 2011 match-up. Although Obama won 62 percent of the vote in this district in 2012, McDonnell nearly won a bare majority of the vote in 2009 in this rural district, and depending on voter turnout, Peschke could make this race more competitive than the 2011 cycle. Although some observers have pointed to this race as one where Republicans might win an additional seat, a Republican victory remains unlikely.[38][4]
District 82
This Virginia Beach-area open seat rests on a Republican-heavy district currently held by the retiring Bob Purkey (R), but Democratic candidate Fleming, a physicist and a small business investor, has been selected by Democracy for America as a good investment. Both candidates are new to state legislative races, but Republican DeSteph was elected to the Virginia Beach City Council in 2006. This seat, though on the radar of possible switches and in a part of the state that is becoming increasingly favorable to Democrats, is likely going to stay in Republican hands.[39][7][40]
District 84
Another Virginia Beach-area seat left open by the departure of Salvatore Iaquinto (R), this district gave McDonnell 64 percent of the vote in 2009 but Obama fought Romney to a near draw in this district in 2012. Davis was elected to the Virginia Beach City Council in 2008, and McKenzie served on the Virginia Beach School Board from 2008 to 2012. The district's Republican leanings suggest that this seat will not change parties, but if the Democrats are having a very good night, this seat may be quite contestable.[41][7]
District 85
Incumbent Bob Tata (R), who has held this seat since 1984, is not seeking re-election. After an active Republican primary, the perceived establishment choice did not win the nomination for this district east of Norfolk. Although McDonnell won handily here in 2009 with 64 percent of the vote, Obama and Romney tied in 2012. If Taylor is deemed too extreme by a significant portion of the electorate, Dale may win this open seat for the Democrats.[42][7][4]
District 86
- Jennifer B. Boysko
- Tom Rust (inc.)
This suburban Washington, DC, district awarded McDonnell with 53 percent of the vote in 2009 before swinging heavily to grant Obama 60 percent of the vote in 2012. Rust, the Republican incumbent since 2002, ran unopposed in 2011 but faces Democracy for America-supported challenger Boysko in 2013. Rust is a moderate, but a spirited campaign by Boysko and her Democratic supporters may put this seat in the Democrat's column on election night. Based on the 2012 presidential vote, this seat is currently the most Democratic seat held by a Republican officeholder.[4][43][44]
District 87
- John Bell
- David Ramadan (inc.)
Incumbent Ramadan won this seat in 2011 by only 51 votes, and donors have poured money into both sides of the race as Ramadan runs for a second-term in this district on the western fringes of the Washington, DC, urban area. Bell, an Air Force veteran who ran for the House of Delegates in 2009, has been endorsed by Democracy for America and hopes to win in this district that Obama won with 56 percent of the vote in 2012. However, McDonnell carried this district with 59 percent of the vote in 2009, and although both candidates had raised substantial sums of money, Ramadan had a significant fundraising advantage as of early September. Bell was the first of the two candidates to run a television advertisement, which went on the air in mid-September.[45][7][4][46][47]
District 93
- T. Monty Mason
- Michael Watson (inc.)
Incumbent Watson, who is running for his second term, won less than 52 percent of the vote in his first election in a district that Obama carried with 57 percent of the vote in 2012 and McDonnell won with 55 percent of the vote in 2009. Mason, his Democratic challenger, is a first-time candidate and a director at Visa who has earned the support of Democracy for America. Some observers consider this race one of the most competitive in the state. Both candidates had television advertisements running by late September.[48][7][4][49][50]
District 94
Freshman incumbent Yancey sits in a district that Obama won with 52 percent of the vote in 2012 but McDonnell won comfortably with 61 percent in 2009. His opponent, Farinholt, comes from a long family tradition of firefighters and public safety workers in the area, and is mounting his first run for office. This district may be quite competitive, and Farinholt attracted Democracy for America's endorsement and the national resources that may come with it.[51][4][52]
See also
- Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2013
- Virginia House of Delegates
- Virginia gubernatorial election, 2013
External links
- The Virginia Public Access Project
- University of Virginia Center for Politics, Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Republicans Certain to Retain Control of Virginia House of Delegates," August 8, 2013
- Daily Kos, "A look at the 2013 Virginia House of Delegates Elections," April 11, 2013
- Democracy for America Endorsements
Footnotes
- ↑ Hampton University, "A Survey of 800 Likely Voters, Virginia Statewide," September 2013
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Democrats Lead Republicans in Upcoming Virginia Races," January 10, 2013
- ↑ Public Policy Polling, "Tight races brewing in Virginia, though Dems have the edge," July 16, 2013
- ↑ 4.00 4.01 4.02 4.03 4.04 4.05 4.06 4.07 4.08 4.09 4.10 4.11 4.12 4.13 4.14 4.15 4.16 4.17 4.18 4.19 4.20 4.21 4.22 4.23 4.24 Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, "Republicans Certain to Retain Control of Virginia House of Delegates," August 8, 2013
- ↑ The Free Lance-Star, "Political website a copy?" March 12, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 2," accessed October 2, 2013
- ↑ 7.00 7.01 7.02 7.03 7.04 7.05 7.06 7.07 7.08 7.09 7.10 7.11 7.12 7.13 7.14 Daily Kos, "A look at the 2013 Virginia House of Delegates Elections," April 11, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 6," accessed October 2, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 10," accessed October 2, 2013
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 Leesburg Today, "Loudoun Again Cited As Key Battleground For State Races," September 9, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 12," accessed October 2, 2013
- ↑ WSLS, "Delegate Joseph Yost dubbed Legislative Champion of the Year"
- ↑ MetroWeekly, "Equality Virginia PAC releases first wave of state delegate endorsements," September 25, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Harder for the House," accessed October 2, 2013
- ↑ Manassas Patch, "Bob Marshall Challenger Atif Qarni Opens Campaign Office in Manassas," August 6, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Qarni for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Politico, "Robert Marshall: ‘Sodomy not a civil right’," May 17, 2012
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 13," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ The Martinsville Bulletin, "Martin announces for House," June 13, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 17," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Freeda for the House of Delegates," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 21," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 30," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Culpeper Star Exponent, "Campaign donations close in District 30 race,' September 18, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Dippert for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Jeremy McPike for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 32," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Elizabeth Miller for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Kathleen Murphy for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 35," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 37," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Lorton Patch, "Not Your Everyday Q&A with Chris DeCarlo," November 4, 2012
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 41," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 50," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 51," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Hendricks for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 67," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 75," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 75," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Bill Fleming for VA House of Delegates," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 84," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 85," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ VPAP, "House of Delegates District 86," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Boysko for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Bell for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Virginia Public Access Project, "House of Delegates District 87," accessed October 4, 2013
- ↑ The Loudoun Times, "Ramadan opponent, Bell, hits the airwaves," September 23, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Monty Mason for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Daily Press, "Mason, Watson both on TV in 93rd Delegate District race," September 24, 2013
- ↑ Virginia Public Access Project, "House of Delegates District 93," accessed October 4, 2013
- ↑ Democracy for America, "Rob Farinholt for Delegate," accessed October 3, 2013
- ↑ Virginia Public Access Project, "House of Delegates District 94," accessed October 4, 2013
