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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014
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All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index -- the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates -- showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 6,051 were up for election in the November 4, 2014, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2014's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized the 3-factor "Competitiveness Index."
This report is organized into four sections. They are:
Competitiveness overview
Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.
Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:
- Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
- Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
- Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.
These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).
The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2014 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2014 | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2012 | 2014 | AVERAGE | ||||||
Competitiveness Index | 34.6 | 35.2 | 30.8 | 33.5 | |||||
Open seats | 18.7% | 21.9% | 16.8% | 19.1% | |||||
Inc. in contested primaries | 20.0% | 23.3% | 19.5% | 20.9% | |||||
Seats with major party competition | 65.0% | 60.4% | 56.0% | 60.5% |
Open seats
There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,019 open seats, guaranteeing at least 17% of all seats would be won by newcomers. The total number and percentage of open seats was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.
In 2014:
Open state legislative seats, 2014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Other | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | |||||||||||||||||||||||
House | 4,958 | 367 | 437 | 6 | 810 | 16.3% | ||||||||||||||||||
Senate | 1,093 | 90 | 117 | 2 | 209 | 19.1% | ||||||||||||||||||
Total | 6,051 | 457 | 554 | 8 | 1,019 | 16.8% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2014. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholders could not be determined due to redistricting.
Incumbents in contested primaries
There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Overall, 5,041 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 983 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the same percentage as in 2010 (20%) but lower than in 2012 (23%).
A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.
Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.
In 2014:
State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Total[1] | ||||||||||||||||||||||
Filed | Cont. | % | Filed | Cont. | % | Filed | Cont. | % | ||||||||||||||||
House | 4,958 | 2,034 | 331 | 16.3% | 2,115 | 475 | 22.5% | 4,157 | 806 | 19.4% | ||||||||||||||
Senate | 1,093 | 409 | 83 | 20.3% | 473 | 94 | 19.9% | 884 | 177 | 20.0% | ||||||||||||||
Total | 6,051 | 2,443 | 414 | 16.9% | 2,588 | 569 | 22.0% | 5,041 | 983 | 19.5% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2010 to 2014.
All contested primaries
This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 5,598 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 10,949 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 1,698 contested primaries, meaning 16% of all primaries were contested. This was the lowest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.
In 2014:
Contested state legislative primaries, 2014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Chamber | Districts | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Democratic | Republican | Top-two/four | Total | |||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||||||||||||||||
House | 4,522 | 493 | 11.3% | 770 | 17.7% | 67 | 37.6% | 1,330 | 15.0% | |||||||||||||||
Senate | 1,076 | 153 | 15.2% | 188 | 18.7% | 27 | 39.1% | 368 | 17.7% | |||||||||||||||
Total | 5,598 | 646 | 12.1% | 958 | 17.9% | 94 | 38.1% | 1,698 | 15.5% |
The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2010 to 2014.
Major party competition
There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Of that total, 2,663 (44%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,388 (56%) were contested by both major parties. This was the largest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.
Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.
In 2014:
Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2014 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chamber | Seats | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Uncontested | Contested | |||||||||||||||||||||||
Only Democrats | Only Republicans | Total | ||||||||||||||||||||||
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | |||||||||||||||||
House | 4,958 | 1,037 | 20.9% | 1,156 | 23.3% | 2,197 | 44.3% | 2,761 | 55.7% | |||||||||||||||
Senate | 1,093 | 215 | 19.7% | 251 | 23.0% | 466 | 42.6% | 627 | 57.4% | |||||||||||||||
Total | 6,051 | 1,252 | 20.7% | 1,407 | 23.3% | 2,663 | 44.0% | 3,388 | 56.0% |
Historical comparison
The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2014.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2014
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2014
- Open seats in state legislative elections, 2014
- Contested state legislative primaries, 2014
- State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2014
- Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2014
- Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2014
- State legislative incumbents without general election challengers, 2014
- Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2014
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- ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.