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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 4, 2014

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All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index -- the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates -- showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition, and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.

Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.

Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 6,051 were up for election in the November 4, 2014, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2014's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized the 3-factor "Competitiveness Index."

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2010 to 2014 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections
State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2010-2014
2010 2012 2014 AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index 34.6 35.2 30.8 33.5
Open seats 18.7% 21.9% 16.8% 19.1%
Inc. in contested primaries 20.0% 23.3% 19.5% 20.9%
Seats with major party competition 65.0% 60.4% 56.0% 60.5%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2014

There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,019 open seats, guaranteeing at least 17% of all seats would be won by newcomers. The total number and percentage of open seats was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2014:

  • There were 457 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 554 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were eight other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing. It also includes seats where Ballotpedia could not determine partisan control due to redistricting.
  • The total number of open seats—1,019—was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010 and a 22% decrease from 2012.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2014
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 4,958 367 437 6 810 16.3%
    Senate 1,093 90 117 2 209 19.1%
    Total 6,051 457 554 8 1,019 16.8%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2010 to 2014. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders. It also includes seats whose previous officeholders could not be determined due to redistricting.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2014

    There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Overall, 5,041 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 983 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the same percentage as in 2010 (20%) but lower than in 2012 (23%).

    A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2014:

  • There were 414 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 17% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, an 8% decrease from 2012.
  • There were 569 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 15% decrease from 2012.
  • No minor party or independent incumbents faced contested primaries.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—983—was down from 2012 (1,117), representing a 12% decrease.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2014
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 4,958 2,034 331 16.3% 2,115 475 22.5% 4,157 806 19.4%
    Senate 1,093 409 83 20.3% 473 94 19.9% 884 177 20.0%
    Total 6,051 2,443 414 16.9% 2,588 569 22.0% 5,041 983 19.5%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2010 to 2014.

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2014

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 5,598 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 10,949 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 1,698 contested primaries, meaning 16% of all primaries were contested. This was the lowest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    In 2014:

  • There were 646 contested Democratic primaries, representing 12% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 22% decrease from 2012.
  • There were 958 contested Republican primaries, representing 18% of all possible Republican primaries and a 14% decrease from 2012.
  • There were 94 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 38% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 4% decrease from 2012.
  • The total number of contested primaries—1,698—was the lowest since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010, representing a 17% decrease from 2012.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2014
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,522 493 11.3% 770 17.7% 67 37.6% 1,330 15.0%
    Senate 1,076 153 15.2% 188 18.7% 27 39.1% 368 17.7%
    Total 5,598 646 12.1% 958 17.9% 94 38.1% 1,698 15.5%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2010 to 2014.

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2014

    There were 6,051 state legislative seats up for election on November 4, 2014, in 46 states. Of that total, 2,663 (44%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,388 (56%) were contested by both major parties. This was the largest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2010.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2014:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,252 seats (21%) that lacked Republican competition, a 12% increase from 2012.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 1,407 seats (23%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 11% increase from 2012.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 4,640 seats (77%) and Republicans ran for 4,795 (79%).
  • There were four seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—2,663—was more than in 2012 (2,384), representing a 12% increase.


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2014
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,958 1,037 20.9% 1,156 23.3% 2,197 44.3% 2,761 55.7%
    Senate 1,093 215 19.7% 251 23.0% 466 42.6% 627 57.4%
    Total 6,051 1,252 20.7% 1,407 23.3% 2,663 44.0% 3,388 56.0%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2010 to 2014.

    See also

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