Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 5, 2015

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2015 State Legislative Elections
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Following an even-year election cycle which was statistically the worst since Ballotpedia began yearly analyses of state legislative electoral competitiveness in 2010, 2015 set a new record not only for off-year election cycles but also in general. While the percentage of open seats (14.7%) was not dissimilar to 2011 (17.0%) and the percentage of incumbents facing primary opposition (23.3%) reached a high mark for odd years, the percentage of general elections between major candidates (38.3%) was the lowest recorded so far, bringing 2015's Competitiveness Index to a new record low.

Of the country's 7,383 state legislative seats, 538 were up for election in the November 2015, state legislative elections. This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2015's state legislative elections.

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

• Open seats, those where no incumbents filed to run;
• Incumbents in contested primaries, those who could potentially lose to challengers; and,
• Major party competition — where Democrats and Republicans meet head-to-head in the general election.

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

The table below shows the Competitiveness Indices from 2011 to 2015 as well as the three factors used to calculate the indices. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2015
	2011	2013	2015	AVERAGE
Competitiveness Index	28.1	30.3	25.4	27.9
Open seats	17.0%	6.8%	14.7%	12.8%
Inc. in contested primaries	21.4%	11.7%	23.3%	18.8%
Seats with major party competition	46.0%	72.3%	38.3%	52.2%

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2015

There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in 2015 in four states. Of that total, there were 79 open seats, guaranteeing at least 15% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was up from 2013 (7%) but lower than in 2011 (17%).

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2015:

There were 43 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.

There were 36 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.

The total number of open seats—79—was down from 98 in 2011, the last time all four states held elections, representing a 19% decrease.

Open state legislative seats, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic	Republican	Other	Total
					#	%
House	407	34	22	0	56	13.8%
Senate	131	9	14	0	23	17.6%
Total	538	43	36	0	79	14.7%

.

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2015. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

Incumbents in contested primaries

See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015

There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2015 in four states. Overall, 460 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 107 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 23% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was up from 2011 (21%), the last time all four states held elections.

A primary is contested when there are more candidates running than nominations available. When this occurs, and an incumbent is present, it means the incumbent could possibly lose the primary. Learn more about the terms and methodologies used in this analysis.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

In 2015:

There were 46 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 24% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 21% decrease from 2011.

There were 60 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 33% increase from 2011.

There was one minor party or independent incumbent in contested primaries, representing 50% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.

The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—107—was up from 2011 (104), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 3% increase.

State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Democratic			Republican			Total
		Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%	Filed	Cont.	%
House	407	147	35	23.8%	202	40	19.8%	351	76	21.7%
Senate	131	43	11	25.6%	66	20	30.3%	109	31	28.4%
Total	538	190	46	24.2%	268	60	22.4%	460	107	23.3%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2015.

All contested primaries

See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2015

This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 498 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 852 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 169 contested primaries, meaning 20% of all primaries were contested. This was down from 2011 (22%), the last time all four states held elections.

In 2015:

There were 49 contested Democratic primaries, representing 14% of all possible Democratic primaries and a 2% increase from 2011.

There were 50 contested Republican primaries, representing 14% of all possible Republican primaries and a 23% decrease from 2011.

There were 70 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 49% of all possible top-two/four primaries and a 14% decrease from 2011.

The total number of contested primaries—169—was down from 194 in 2011, the last time all four states held elections, representing a 13% decrease.

Contested state legislative primaries, 2015
Chamber	Districts
		Democratic		Republican		Top-two/four		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	367	35	13.4%	31	11.8%	52	49.5%	118	18.8%
Senate	131	14	15.2%	19	20.7%	18	46.2%	51	22.9%
Total	498	49	13.8%	50	14.1%	70	48.6%	169	19.8%

The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2015.

Major party competition

See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015

There were 538 state legislative seats up for election in November 2015 in four states. Of that total, 332 (62%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 206 (38%) were contested by both major parties. This was the largest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

In 2015:

Democrats were guaranteed to win 140 seats (26%) that lacked Republican competition, a 11% increase from 2011.

Republicans were guaranteed to win 190 seats (35%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 3% increase from 2011.

Overall, Democrats ran for 346 seats (64%) and Republicans ran for 396 (74%).

There were two seats guaranteed to minor party or independent candidates because no major party candidates ran.

The total number of seats without major party competition—332—was more than in 2011 (312), the last time all four states held elections, representing a 6% increase.

Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015
Chamber	Seats
		Uncontested						Contested
		Only Democrats		Only Republicans		Total
		#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
House	407	106	26.0%	138	33.9%	246	60.4%	161	39.6%
Senate	131	34	26.0%	52	39.7%	86	65.6%	45	34.4%
Total	538	140	26.0%	190	35.3%	332	61.7%	206	38.3%

Historical comparison

The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2015.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2015
  • Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2015
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2015
  • Contested state legislative primaries, 2015
  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2015
  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2015
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2015
• Primary election competitiveness in state government, 2015

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