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2016 Presidential battleground state: Maine (CD2) and Nebraska (CD2)
 Date: November 8, 2016 |
Winner: Donald Trump (R) Hillary Clinton (D) • Jill Stein (G) • Gary Johnson (L) • Vice presidential candidates |
Important dates • Nominating process • Ballotpedia's 2016 Battleground Poll • Polls • Debates • Presidential election by state • Ratings and scorecards |
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This article is about the 2016 presidential election in Maine (CD2) and Nebraska (CD2), two key battleground districts. For Ballotpedia's full coverage of presidential battleground states in the 2016 presidential election, click here.
2016 Battleground states
In 2016, 12 states and two congressional districts were key to deciding the outcome of the presidential election between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.[1] In electoral votes, that came to 159, more than half of the 270 votes needed to win an electoral college majority and become president. Throughout 2016, polling was often tight in these states and districts, and their voting histories made their outcomes difficult to predict. For these reasons, we referred to them as "battlegrounds."
Why did these states have so much sway in the election?
The reason these states and two districts had so much sway in the 2016 presidential election was largely because most of the electoral college map was already set in place before any votes for president were cast, but the battleground states were still up for grabs. Clinton, for example, began the general election with an almost guaranteed 200 electoral votes from 16 states and Washington, D.C. That's 74 percent of the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Trump began with an almost guaranteed 179 electoral votes—66 percent of 270—from 22 states. We knew this because of these states' past election results, demographic trends, and polling data. What this means is that 38 states and Washington, D.C.—a total of 379 electoral votes—were not competitive in 2016. But the battleground states were, and there were more than enough electoral votes between them to get either candidate to the White House.
Paths to victory
Clinton needed slightly fewer of these battleground states' electoral votes than Trump. To win, she needed only 70 of the 159 electoral votes in the battlegrounds, while Trump needed 91. Those 21 electoral votes that separated Clinton and Trump might not sound all that significant, but they were. Ballotpedia broke down all the different combinations of battleground states that could get Clinton and Trump to 270 electoral votes or higher. We found that Clinton had almost twice as many paths to victory as Trump, at 10,581 different combinations to 5,572, respectively. The 2016 battleground states are highlighted on the map below in grey. Maine and Nebraska are yellow because their second congressional districts were battlegrounds.[1] States in blue and red are ones that were generally considered safe for Clinton and Trump, respectively.
Maine (CD2) and Nebraska (CD2)
Two states allocate their electoral votes proportionally: Maine and Nebraska. Maine has four electoral votes—two for the state and one for each of its two congressional districts. Nebraska has five electoral votes—two for the state and three for each of its three congressional districts. Historically, there has been little disagreement in these states between the statewide vote and the congressional districts. Nebraska and its three districts have tended to favor Republican presidential candidates, while Maine and its two districts have tended to favor Democrats. But in Maine, things began to change in 2014, and in Nebraska things started changing in 2012—oddly enough, in the second congressional districts of both states.
ME-2
Maine's second congressional district covers the more rural and heavily-forested northern parts of the state (about two-thirds of the state altogether). It has historically leaned Democratic. Obama won ME-2 in 2008 and 2012 by 10 and nine points, respectively. But the district elected a Republican—Bruce Poliquin—to the House for the first time in 20 years in 2014, and Trump led in the polls throughout September by margins ranging from four points to 14 points. Clinton, however, led by four points in one poll from early October. On September 29, The Cook Political Report rated ME-2 as "leaning Republican."[2]
2016 Polling
Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.
Forecasts
Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for ME-2 from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.
- NYT: 64 percent chance Republican
- 538: 51 percent chance Democratic
- Cook: Tossup
- UV: Lean Republican
NE-2
Maine's second congressional district is, geographically, the smallest of the state's three congressional districts and includes the college city of Omaha and all of Douglas County. NE-2 has generally followed the statewide vote in backing Republicans, but Obama won it in 2008, 50-49 percent. Romney, however, won it in 2012, 53-46 percent. Things got even more complicated in 2014 when Democrat Brad Ashford unseated Republican Lee Terry and became the first Democrat to hold the seat since 1994. The Cook Political Report rated NE-2 as a tossup in September 2016.[2]
2016 Polling
Ballotpedia's battleground state polling averages were based on polls that came out over a 20- to 30-day period. For example, an average might have covered all polls that were released for a state between September 1, 2016, and September 30, 2016. They were not weighted. Polling averages were checked and updated daily.
Forecasts
Various organizations assign ratings to states in election years to assess how they think the state will award its electoral votes. To do this type of analysis, these organizations rely on previous electoral results, demographic changes, polling data, mathematical formulas, and numerous other metrics. Below we have gathered ratings for NE-2 from four organizations: The New York Times, 538.com, The Cook Political Report, and The University of Virginia's Center for Politics. The ratings below date to November 8, 2016.
- NYT: 80 percent chance Republican
- 538: 56 percent chance Republican
- Cook: Tossup
- UV: Lean Republican
See also
- Presidential battleground states, 2016
- U.S. Senate battlegrounds, 2016
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2016
- State legislative battleground chambers, 2016
- Ballotpedia's battleground poll, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes proportionally. They are the only two states that do this.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 The Cook Political Report, "2016 Electoral Scorecard," September 29, 2016
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