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Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2018
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In 2018, Ballotpedia published state and federal primary election competitiveness data following each state's major-party candidate filing deadline. This includes data from congressional, state legislative, and state executive filings.
The statistics in this report include the percentage of contested partisan primary elections in 2018, the percentage of incumbents who sought re-election, and the percentage of incumbents with a primary challenger. Click here for primary election competitiveness data for the United States.
A contested primary is defined as one in which voters have a choice on the ballot. Most commonly, this means that there is more than one candidate from one party in the race. Exceptions to this include states with multi-member legislative districts and states featuring a top-two primary system, such as California and Washington.
Overview
The following statistics are an aggregate of primary election competitiveness data across all states with completed filing deadlines. Corresponding data from 2014 and 2016 are provided for comparative purposes.
- In 2018, an average of 2.4 candidates per seat filed for election. In 2016, 2.2 candidates per seat ran, and in 2014, 2.1 candidates per seat ran on the ballot.
- 20.0% of seats were open.[1] In 2016, 17.4% of seats were open, and there were 16.9% open seats in 2014.
- 23.2% of possible primary races were contested in 2018. Comparatively, 19.1% of primaries were contested in 2016 and 18.2% were contested in 2014.
- 24.9% of incumbents faced contested primaries. In 2016, 22.8% of incumbents faced a primary opponent, while in 2014, 21.7% of incumbents faced a contested primary.
In general, congressional elections featured the greatest percentage of contested primaries, followed by statewide executive races. The further down-ballot a race was, the less likely it is to be contested.
Read the table below for cumulative primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office. You may be required to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.
| 2018 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Total seats | Open seats | Total candidates | Democratic primaries contested | Republican primaries contested | Total contested | Incumbents contested in primaries | Total incumbents contested in primaries |
| U.S. Senate | 33 | 3 | 249 | 14 | 29 | 70.3% | 15 | 50.0% |
| U.S. House | 435 | 60 | 2,015 | 241 | 170 | 58.5% | 190 | 50.8% |
| State executives | 264 | 100 | 1,029 | 96 | 106 | 45.5% | 67 | 40.4% |
| State legislature[2] | 6,065 | 1,194 | 13,297 | 1,005 | 1,011 | 19.3% | 1,082 | 22.2% |
| Totals | 6,797 | 1,357 | 16,590 | 1,356 | 1,316 | 23.2% | 1,354 | 24.9% |
The below tables contain the same aggregate information for the same group of states included in the 2018 data set.
2016
| 2016 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Total seats | Open seats | Total candidates | Democratic primaries contested | Republican primaries contested | Total contested | Incumbents contested in primaries | Total incumbents contested in primaries |
| U.S. Senate | 36 | 5 | 266 | 20 | 22 | 65.2% | 18 | 58.1% |
| U.S. House | 435 | 45 | 1,588 | 133 | 170 | 44.8% | 196 | 50.4% |
| State executives | 91 | 42 | 300 | 28 | 29 | 38.8% | 20 | 39.2% |
| State legislature[3] | 5,916 | 1,032 | 11,918 | 752 | 940 | 16.6% | 985 | 20.2% |
| Totals | 6,478 | 1,124 | 14,072 | 933 | 1,161 | 19.1% | 1,219 | 22.8% |
2014
| 2014 aggregate primary competitiveness data | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office | Total seats | Open seats | Total candidates | Democratic primaries contested | Republican primaries contested | Total contested | Incumbents contested in primaries | Total incumbents contested in primaries |
| U.S. Senate | 31 | 6 | 191 | 15 | 23 | 63.9% | 14 | 56.0% |
| U.S. House | 435 | 43 | 1,471 | 119 | 161 | 41.7% | 167 | 42.6% |
| State executives | 211 | 68 | 728 | 71 | 79 | 38.3% | 51 | 36.4% |
| State legislature[4] | 6,051 | 1,019 | 12,046 | 646 | 958 | 15.5% | 983 | 19.5% |
| Totals | 6,728 | 1,136 | 14,436 | 851 | 1,221 | 18.2% | 1,215 | 21.7% |
Breakdown by office
U.S. Senate
U.S. House
State executive
State legislative
See also
- Elections
- Elections calendar
- United States Senate elections, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- State executive official elections, 2018
- State legislative elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election, filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary, or filed to run for re-election, did not appear in a contested primary, and withdrew before the general election.
- ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
- ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
- ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
