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2019 election analysis: Incumbent win rates by state
From Ballotpedia
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Updated 3:00pm EST, November 15, 2019
This content is part of Ballotpedia's analysis of the 2019 elections. For comprehensive election results, click here.
Ballotpedia covered all state races on November 5, 2019, as well as local elections in America's 100 largest cities by population. In the 2019 general election, an average of 90% of incumbents nationwide won their re-election bids. This percentage includes races in which incumbents ran unopposed.
- The incumbent win rate for state seats remained above 95% in all states but Kentucky.
- State legislative incumbents had a 97% average win rate.
- The incumbent win rate for Kentucky statewide offices was 75%.
- Local elections saw an average incumbent win rate of 89%, slightly lower than the combined average win rate of 90%.
- The lowest incumbent win rate for local elections covered by Ballotpedia was in Kentucky, which saw a 50% win rate.
The analysis below includes data compiled by Ballotpedia on the 1,971 incumbents who ran for re-election on November 5, 2019.
The table below shows the win rate for each state and election type:
| 2019 incumbent win rate by state | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| State | Incumbent win rate |
State executive | State legislative | State judicial | Local | |
| Arizona | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| California | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Colorado | 88% | - | - | - | 88% | |
| Florida | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Iowa | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Idaho | 75% | - | - | - | 75% | |
| Indiana | 85% | - | - | - | 85% | |
| Kansas | 89% | - | - | - | 89% | |
| Kentucky | 67% | 75% | - | - | 50% | |
| Massachusetts | 93% | - | - | - | 93% | |
| Minnesota | 91% | - | - | - | 91% | |
| Mississippi | 99% | 100% | 99% | - | - | |
| North Carolina | 88% | - | - | - | 88% | |
| New Hampshire | 56% | - | - | - | 56% | |
| New Jersey | 94% | - | 95% | - | 86% | |
| New Mexico | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| New York | 97% | - | - | - | 97% | |
| Ohio | 92% | - | - | - | 92% | |
| Pennsylvania | 95% | - | - | 100% | 95% | |
| Texas | 92% | - | - | - | 92% | |
| Utah | 100% | - | - | - | 100% | |
| Virginia | 93% | - | 96% | - | 83% | |
| Washington | 100% | - | 100% | - | 100% | |
| Average | 90% | 89% | 97% | 100% | 89% | |
Map
See also
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2019
- 2019 election analysis: Uncontested races by state
- 2019 election analysis: State government trifectas
- 2019 election analysis: State government triplexes
- State executive official elections, 2019
- State legislative elections, 2019
- State judicial elections, 2019
- United States municipal elections, 2019
Footnotes
