Election law changes? Our legislation tracker’s got you. Check it out!

Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2026

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Ballotpedia-Elections-Portal-Masthead-Image-icons.png
Last updated on February 10, 2026
« 2025
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Election Analysis Hub, 2026
Election analysis
Top 15 elections to watch
Municipal partisanship
Uncontested elections
Competitiveness reports:
Congress
State executives
State legislatures
Elections coverage
Election results, 2026
Election previews
Congressional elections
State government trifectas
State legislatures
State executives
Governors
Municipal elections
Mayoral elections

Ballotpedia's 2026 state primary election competitiveness data analyzes all state legislative, state executive, and congressional elections taking place in 2026. This analysis provides an understanding of how competitive the year's primary elections are using metrics including the number of incumbents who did not seek re-election, the total number of contested primaries, and the number of incumbents with primary challengers. Historical comparisons are also provided for context. Click here to learn more about how Ballotpedia defines and calculates competitiveness figures.

In 2026, this competitiveness information includes congressional elections in all 50 states, state legislative elections in 46 states, and state executive elections in 43 states.

Ballotpedia has published comprehensive competitiveness data from each election cycle since 2010. In 2026, this includes data from state legislative, state executive, and congressional filings.

HIGHLIGHTS
  • This page contains post-filing deadline information for 713 seats across four states.
  • As of January 2026, an average of 2.7 candidates filed per seat. The average number over the three preceding cycles was 2.3.
  • Of the 713 seats up for election, 14.3% are open.[1] The average rate of open seats for the three preceding cycles was 19.6%.
  • Of all possible primaries, 25.6% are contested. The average rate of contested primaries for the three preceding cycles was 21.3%.[2]
  • Of the 619 incumbents who filed for re-election, 25.4% are facing contested primaries. The average rate of incumbents in contested primaries for the three preceding cycles was 25.6%.


    • On this page you will find:

    Overview

    The table below shows aggregate primary competitiveness and incumbency statistics by office in 2026. You may need to move the table horizontally using the scrollbar at the bottom of the table depending on your screen size.

    2026 aggregate primary competitiveness data
    OfficeDistricts/officesSeatsOpen seatsCandidatesPossible primariesContested Democratic primariesContested Republican primariesContested top-two primaries% of contested primariesIncumbents in contested primaries% of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate5525710550100.0%3100.0%
    U.S. House7777154501545650068.8%3555.6%
    State executive21289130561217051.8%947.4%
    State legislative610610761317122093131018.4%11020.6%
    Total71372010219541440166203025.6%15725.4%


    The table below shows overall primary competitiveness statistics each cycle since 2010.

    Comparison of overall primary competitiveness percentages, 2010-2026
     201020122014201620182020202220242026Average
    Open seats (%)18.7%21.9%16.9%17.4%20.0%15.0%23.5%16.9%13.6%18.8%
    Total primaries (%)18.3%18.5%18.2%19.1%23.2%20.5%24.3%19.2%26.0%20.2%
    Inc. in contested primaries (%)20.0%23.3%21.7%22.8%24.9%22.7%30.2%23.8%25.9%23.7%

    Breakdown by office

    This section shows competitiveness statistics broken down by office type. Click a tab to view competitiveness information from that office.

    This analysis uses the following definitions:

    • Total candidates: the total number of major party candidates running in primary elections.[3]
    • Total seats: the total number of seats or offices up for election with the possibility of a primary election.
    • Open seats: the total number of seats, out of the total seats figure, where the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
    • Incumbents contested: the total number of incumbents in contested primaries.
    • Democratic/Republican/Top-two primaries: the total number of these types of primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
    • Total primaries: a combination of all Democratic, Republican, and top-two primaries where at least one candidate could have failed to advance to the general election.
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2026
     201020122014201620182020202220242026Average
    Open seats (%)--19.4%13.9%9.1%12.1%17.6%23.5%40.0%16.6%
    Total primaries (%)--63.9%65.2%70.3%69.2%82.8%57.6%100.0%68.8%
    Inc. in contested primaries (%)--56.0%58.1%50.0%53.6%75.0%54.2%100.0%57.3%

    Breakdown by state

    See also: Ballotpedia's Candidate Filing Analysis Hub, 2026

    This section provides state-specific data on primary competitiveness numbers. Each section contains a state overview as well as state-specific looks at the four categories of elections covered in this analysis: U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state executive, and state legislative.

    For each state, the categories of elections are shown as historical tables with data from previous election cycles where races in that category were up for election. All 2020 numbers reflect races where there was, or could have been, a primary. It does not include numbers for races that use conventions or some other method as the sole form of nomination to the general election ballot. Due to the expansion of Ballotpedia's coverage and changes made to the competitiveness analysis, previous years' numbers may vary. Common reasons include the exclusion of offices that were outside of Ballotpedia's coverage at the time and the inclusion of races that use conventions or some other method as the sole means of nomination.

    If you have any questions about the methodology used in this analysis, please email us.

    Definitions

    Below are definitions of terms and metrics used in this analysis.

    • Districts/offices: the number of districts or offices up for election. Since some state legislative districts and state executive offices are represented by more than one officeholder, this number may be smaller than the number of seats.
    • Seats: the number of seats up for election.
    • Open seats: the number of open seats. This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed but withdrew and did not appear on any ballot for the district/office.[4]
    • Candidates: the number of candidates participating in primaries. If the race is a top-two primary, all candidates are counted. In all other primaries, only major-party candidates are counted.[5]
    • Possible primaries: this figure reflects the number of major-party primaries that are possible. In most cases, this figure is twice the number of districts/offices up for election, since every district could have a Democratic and a Republican primary. If top-two primaries are used, there is only one primary per district/office. If a convention is the only method of nomination, it is not counted as a possible primary.[6][7]
    • Contested Democratic/Republican/top-two primaries: these figures show the total number of primaries where at least one candidate will be defeated, meaning there are more candidates in the primary than there are seats.
    • % of contested primaries: calculated by dividing the sum of all contested primaries by the number of possible primaries.
    • Incumbents in contested primaries: the number of incumbents who appear on a primary ballot where he or she could be defeated.[8]
    • % of incumbents in contested primaries: calculated by dividing the number of incumbents in contested primaries by the number of incumbents seeking re-election.[9]

    Historical data

    The following statistics are an aggregate of primary election competitiveness data across all states over the previous five election cycles.

    2024

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2024
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 14, 2024

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2024.

    OfficeDistricts/officesSeatsOpen seatsCandidatesPossible primariesContested Democratic primariesContested Republican primariesContested top-two primaries% of contested primariesIncumbents in contested primaries% of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate22139511160.0%2100.0%
    U.S. House1211211653319023444257.4%7873.6%
    State executive2424910048816050.0%853.3%
    State legislature6726721041,5321,244781265821.1%14024.6%
    Totals8198191302,2041,48711018710126.8%22833.0%

    2022

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2022
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2022
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 12, 2022

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2022.

    OfficeDistricts/officesSeatsOpen seatsCandidatesPossible primariesContested Democratic primariesContested Republican primariesContested top-two primaries% of contested primariesIncumbents in contested primaries% of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate34346335642326482.8%2175.0%
    U.S. House435435602,1387951652306758.1%22859.8%
    State executive271274891,167516911372749.4%9750.3%
    State legislature5,8626,2781,49213,44311,4198211,38712620.4%1,29926.8%
    Totals6,6027,0211,64717,08312,7941,1001,78022424.3%1,64530.2%

    2020

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2020
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2020
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2020.

    OfficeDistricts/officesSeatsOpen seatsCandidatesPossible primariesContested Democratic primariesContested Republican primariesContested top-two primaries% of contested primariesIncumbents in contested primaries% of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate33334242652222169.2%1553.6%
    U.S. House435435412,0527941982006358.1%19850.3%
    State executives1441444951025636432139.1%3536.5%
    State legislature5,4975,87587612,35310,74683688210917.0%1,00620.1%
    Totals6,1096,48797015,15711,8611,0921,14719420.5%1,25422.7%

    2018

    See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2018
    See also: Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2018
    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2018.

    OfficeDistricts/officesSeatsOpen seatsCandidatesPossible primariesContested Democratic primariesContested Republican primariesContested top-two primaries% of contested primariesIncumbents in contested primaries% of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate33333249641429270.3%1550.0%
    U.S. House435435602,0157962411705558.5%19050.8%
    State executives2642641001,029490961062145.5%6740.4%
    State legislature[27]5,6126,0651,19413,29710,9771,0051,01110719.3%1,08222.2%
    Totals6,3446,7971,35716,59012,3271,3561,31618523.2%1,35424.9%

    2016

    See also: Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 6, 2016

    Click [show] on the table below to view aggregate primary competitiveness data from 2016.

    OfficeDistricts/officesSeatsOpen seatsCandidatesPossible primariesContested Democratic primariesContested Republican primariesContested top-two primaries% of contested primariesIncumbents in contested primaries% of incumbents in contested primaries
    U.S. Senate36365266692022365.2%1858.1%
    U.S. House435435451,5887991331705544.8%19650.4% 
    State executives9191423001702829938.8%2039.2%
    State legislature[28]5,5385,9161,03211,91810,82775294010816.6%98520.2%
    Totals6,1006,4781,12414,07211,8659331,16117519.1%1,21922.8%

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ This analysis defines a seat as open if the incumbent did not file to run for re-election or filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary filing deadline.
    2. ↑ A primary is contested when more candidates file to run than nominations available, meaning at least one candidate must lose.
    3. ↑ In top-two primaries, all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, are counted. If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
    4. ↑ If an incumbent withdrew from or did not participate in a primary, but later chose to run for re-election as a minor party or independent candidate, his or her seat would not be counted as open.
    5. ↑ If a convention is the sole means of nomination, only the candidate(s) advancing beyond the convention are counted.
    6. ↑ For example, if there are 50 districts up for election, there would be 100 possible primaries. If Democrats in five districts and Republicans in two districts chose to nominate candidates via a convention, the number of possible primaries would decrease to 93
      ((50 * 2) - 7).
    7. ↑ If conventions are used, but could still result in a primary, that is included as a possible primary even if the convention did not proceed to a primary. For example, in some states a candidate can advance to the general election from a convention outright if he or she receives a certain percentage of the vote. If that percentage is not met, the race may proceed to a primary.
    8. ↑ Incumbents participating in contested nominating conventions are not included in this total. If the incumbent participates in a convention and advances to a contested primary, he or she would be included. This figure include all incumbents whose name appear on a contested primary ballot even if that incumbent passed away or unofficially withdrew before the election.
    9. ↑ Incumbents seeking re-election can typically be calculated by subtracting the number of open seats from the number of total seats.
    10. ↑ Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include any state executive elections in Hawaii in 2016.
    11. ↑ All state executive offices in Indiana up for election in 2022 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    12. ↑ All state executive offices in Indiana up for election in 2018 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    13. ↑ All state executive offices in Indiana up for election in 2014 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    14. ↑ Though incumbent Rep. Nima Kulkarni won in the Democratic primary for House District 40, the Kentucky Supreme Court struck down her primary results and found that Kulkarni was a disqualified candidate after a lawsuit alleged one of two people whose signature was on her nomination paperwork was a Republican when it was signed. While Kulkarni appeared on the ballot, Ballotpedia counted House District 40 as an open seat because the Kentucky Supreme Court deemed her candidacy invalid.
    15. ↑ 15.0 15.1 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; no text was provided for refs named laprimexp
    16. ↑ All state executive offices in Michigan up for election in 2024 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    17. ↑ All state executive offices in Michigan up for election in 2020 were nominated solely via conventions and excluded from this analysis.
    18. ↑ Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include any state executive elections in Michigan in 2016.
    19. ↑ Ballotpedia's coverage scope did not include any state executive elections in Nevada in 2016.
    20. ↑ Six district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total for number of possible primaries.
    21. ↑ Seven district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total for number of possible primaries.
    22. ↑ Five district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total for number of possible primaries.
    23. ↑ Two district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total number of possible primaries.
    24. ↑ Two district parties chose to hold nominating conventions or caucuses instead of primaries. Those are not included in the total number of possible primaries.
    25. ↑ There were four open seats in the Senate. Of the 19 open seats in the House, nine were in districts that did not exist before the 2022 election cycle. Three open seats were in districts that, before 2022, contained multiple seats. The remaining seven open seats were in districts that had been single-member districts before 2022.
    26. ↑ Includes three seats created during the redistricting process after the 2020 census.
    27. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
    28. ↑ State legislative elections in Nebraska's nonpartisan Senate were not included in this analysis.
    Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Primary_election_competitiveness_in_state_and_federal_government,_2026&oldid=11054244"