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Aftermath of the 2016 presidential election in 2018 state legislative elections
| 2018 Elections | |
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In the 46 states with elections there were 6,073 state legislative seats up for election on November 6, 2018.[1]
Does a correlation exist between the results of the 2016 presidential election and incumbent retirement rates? Ballotpedia analyzed information on incumbent retirements in 43 states, comparing the overall retirement rate to that in districts which were carried by the opposite party's presidential candidate.[2] Incumbent retirement rates were also analyzed based on whether the incumbent's district intersects with a pivot county, meaning that it was carried by Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 elections and by Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 election.
- Clinton Republicans and Trump Democrats both have higher retirement rates than their party averages, although the difference is larger for Trump Democrats. In other words, legislators retire at a higher rate if their district backed the opposing party's presidential candidate, particularly Democratic legislatures in districts which backed Donald Trump.
- Clinton Republicans represent 11.8 percent of all Republican-held districts up for election in 2018 but account for 14.3 percent of all Republican retirements.
- Trump Democrats represent 13.7 percent of all Democratic-held districts up for election in 2018 but account for 18.1 percent of all Democratic retirements.
- Pivot county legislators of both parties have higher than average retirement rates, although the difference is larger among Republicans. In other words, legislators retire at a higher rate if their district intersects a pivot county, particularly if they are Republicans.
- Pivot County Republicans represent 11.2 percent of all Republican-held districts up for election in 2018 but account for 15.3 percent of all Republican retirements.
- Pivot County Democrats represent 9.6 percent of all Democratic-held districts up for election in 2018 but account for 10.8 percent of Democratic retirements.
Incumbents retiring in a district the other party's presidential candidate won in 2016
In 43 states where filing deadline and presidential election data was available, 740 (13.1 percent) of districts with elections in 2018 voted for the presidential candidate of the opposite party from their state legislator. In the following sections, we provide additional context on these Clinton Republicans and Trump Democrats by examining their retirement rates and their share of total party retirements relative to the number of seats they hold.
Retirement rates
Clinton Republicans and Trump Democrats both have higher retirement rates than their party averages, although the difference is larger for Trump Democrats.
The retirement rate for Clinton Republicans is 24.7 percent (97 retiring of 392 up for election); the retirement rate for the Republican Party is 20.5 percent (680 retiring of 3,310 up for election).
The retirement rate for Trump Democrats is 21.3 percent (74 retiring of 348 up for election); the retirement rate for the Democratic Party is 16.1 percent (409 retiring of 2,548 up for election).
Trump Democrats compose a larger share of their party's 2018 state legislative retirements than Clinton Republicans.
Seventy-four of 409 (18.1 percent) retiring Democratic incumbents represented districts that voted for Trump. Ninety-seven of 680 (14.3 percent) retiring Republican incumbents represented districts that voted for Clinton.
Clinton Republicans and Trump Democrats make up slightly disproportionate shares of the retirements for both parties.
Clinton Republicans represent 392 of the 3,310 (11.8 percent) Republican districts up in 2018 but account for 14.3 percent of Republican retirements.
Trump Democrats represent 348 of the 2,548 (13.7 percent) Democratic districts up in 2018 but account for 18.1 percent of Democratic retirements.
Incumbents retiring in a district that intersects with a pivot county
In 43 states where filing deadline and presidential election data was available, 616 of 5,858 legislative districts (10.9 percent) intersect with Pivot Counties, which voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump in 2016. In the following sections, we provide additional context on the Democrats and Republicans who represent parts of these Pivot Counties by examining their retirement rates and their share of total party retirements relative to the number of seats they hold.
Retirement rates
Pivot County legislators of both parties have higher than average retirement rates.
The retirement rate for Pivot County Republicans is 28 percent (104 retiring of 371 up for election); the retirement rate for the Republican Party is 20.5 percent (680 retiring of 3,310 up for election).
The retirement rate for Pivot County Democrats is 18 percent (44 retiring of 245 up for election); the retirement rate for the Democratic Party is 16.1 percent (409 retiring of 2,548 up for election).
Pivot County Republicans comprise a higher share of their party's 2018 state legislative retirements than Pivot County Democrats.
One hundred and four of 680 (15.3 percent) retiring Republican incumbents represented parts of Pivot Counties. Forty-four of 409 (10.8 percent) retiring Democratic incumbents represented parts of Pivot Counties.
Both Pivot County Republicans and Pivot County Democrats make up disproportionate shares of their party's retirements.
Pivot County Republicans represent 371 of the 3,310 (11.2 percent) Republican districts up in 2018 but account for 15.3 percent of Republican retirements.
Pivot County Democrats represent 245 of the 2,548 (9.6 percent) Democratic districts up in 2018 but account for 10.8 percent of Democratic retirements.
See also
- State legislative elections, 2018
- Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018
- Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018
Footnotes
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