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Alaska House of Representatives elections, 2016
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| 2016 Alaska House Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | August 16, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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| 2016 Elections | |
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| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
Republicans lost two seats but still retained a numerical majority in the chamber. However, a coalition between House Democrats, three Republican representatives, and two independent representatives gave effective control of the chamber to Democrats.
All 40 seats in the Alaska House of Representatives were up for election in 2016.
Introduction
Elections for the Alaska House of Representatives took place in 2016. The primary election took place on August 16, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 1, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state houses
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Alaska House of Representatives:
| Alaska House of Representatives | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 16 | 17[2] | |
| Republican Party | 23 | 21 | |
| Independent | 1 | 2 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
Retired incumbents
Five incumbent representatives did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Lynn Gattis |  Republican |
House District 7 |
| Shelley Hughes | Republican |
House District 11 |
| Craig Johnson | Republican |
House District 24 |
| Mike Hawker | Republican |
House District 28 |
| Kurt Olson | Republican |
House District 30 |
2016 election competitiveness
Alaska sees more incumbents facing primary challengers.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Alaska performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Alaska State Senate, there were six Democratic incumbents and 14 Republican incumbents. There were no incumbents challenged in the August 13 primary.
- In the House, there were 16 Democratic incumbents, 23 Republican incumbents, and one independent incumbent. Two state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were 10 primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Alaska can be found below.
Primary election
Although only about 15 percent of voters turned out for Alaska's August 16th primary, the election had several upsets. Five incumbents—Jim Colver (R-HD9), Wes Keller (R-HD10), Bob Lynn (R-HD26), Bob Herron (D-HD38), and Benjamin P. Nageak (D-HD40)—were defeated by challengers.[3]
Colver, who has represented District 9 since 2014, was defeated by George Rauscher. Rauscher carried the Republican Party's official endorsement in the race because Republican leaders judged that Colver had reportedly voted "too often" with Alaskan Democrats.[3]
David Eastman, the challenger in District 10 who defeated Wes Keller, had considerably greater funding than the representative. Eastman's last fundraising report revealed that the challenger had raised over $21,000, to Keller's $5,500.[4]
Bob Lynn was denied an eighth term by challenger Chris Birch. In his campaign, Birch said that the legislature needed new energy and new ideas, and that the 83-year-old Lynn should retire. Chris Birch is 65 years old. Lynn was defeated despite both incumbency and the backing of a new political group, "Together for Alaska." The group hopes to push changes to the Alaska state budget through the legislature and backed six other candidates: four Democrats and two independent candidates.[5][6]
Democrat Bob Herron served as a leader in the chamber, but low approval among voters led to a loss to challenger Zach Fansler. Ben Nageak was defeated by eight votes.[7]
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Alaska House general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | Scott J. Kawasaki (I)  |
No candidate | |
| 2 | Truno Holdaway: 1,153 | Steve M. Thompson: 3,268 (I) |
|
| 3 | Christina M. Sinclair: 537 | Tammie Wilson: 4,291 (I) |
Jeanne Olson: 2,270 (Ind.) |
| 4 | David Guttenberg (I) |
No candidate | |
| 5 | Adam Wool: 3,812 (I) |
Aaron Lojewski: 3,384 | |
| 6 | Jason T. Land: 2,327 | David M. Talerico: 5,126 (I) |
|
| 7 | Sherie A. Olson: 1,573 | Colleen Sullivan-Leonard: 5,293 |
|
| 8 | Gregory I. Jones: 1,268 | Mark A. Neuman: 5,753 (I) |
|
| 9 | No candidate | George Rauscher: 4,758 |
Pamela Goode: 2,816 (Constitution) |
| 10 | Patricia Faye-Brazel: 2,021 | David Eastman: 5,901 |
|
| 11 | No candidate | DeLena Johnson: 5,752 |
Bert Verrall: 2,681 (Ind.) |
| 12 | Gretchen L. Wehmhoff: 2,061 | Cathy L. Tilton: 5,597 (I) |
Karen Perry: 949 (Constitution) |
| 13 | No candidate | Dan Saddler (I) |
|
| 14 | No candidate | Lora Reinbold: 5,733 (I) |
Joe Hackenmueller: 3,882 (Ind.) |
| 15 | Patrick M. McCormack: 1,344 | Gabrielle LeDoux: 2,834 (I) |
|
| 16 | Ivy Spohnholz: 3,367 (I) |
Don Hadley: 2,740 | Ian Sharrock: 410 (Ind.) |
| 17 | Andrew L. Josephson (I) |
No candidate | |
| 18 | Harriet A. Drummond: 3,490 (I) |
Michael Gordon: 2,760 | |
| 19 | Geran Tarr (I) |
No candidate | |
| 20 | Les S. Gara (I) |
No candidate | |
| 21 | Matt Claman: 4,145 (I) |
Marilyn Stewart: 3,767 | |
| 22 | No candidate | Liz Vazquez: 3,375 (I) | Jason Grenn: 3,561 (Unaffiliated) Dustin Darden: 730 (Alaskan Independent) |
| 23 | Chris S. Tuck: 3,443 (I) |
Timothy R. Huit: 2,672 | |
| 24 | Sue Levi: 3,518 | Charles M. Kopp: 5,019 |
|
| 25 | Pat Higgins: 3,592 | Charisse E. Millett: 3,685 (I) |
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| 26 | David Gillespie: 2,873 | Chris Birch: 5,141 |
|
| 27 | Harry Crawford Jr.: 3,929 | Lance Pruitt: 4,086 (I) |
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| 28 | Shirley A. Cote: 4,606 | Jennifer B. Johnston: 5,903 |
|
| 29 | No candidate | Charles M. Chenault (I) |
|
| 30 | Shauna Thornton: 1,868 | Gary A. Knopp: 5,346 |
Daniel Lynch: 473 (Ind.) J.R. Myers: 473 (Constitution) |
| 31 | No candidate | Paul Seaton (I) |
|
| 32 | Brent L. Watkins: 1,128 | Louise Stutes: 2,981 (I) |
Duncan Fields: 2,777 (Ind.) |
| 33 | Sam Kito III (I) |
No candidate | |
| 34 | Justin Parish: 4,527 |
Cathy Muñoz: 4,332 (I) | |
| 35 | Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins: 5,068 (I) |
Sheila Finkenbinder: 3,486 | |
| 36 | No candidate | Robert W. Siversten: 3,319 | Daniel Ortiz: 4,109 (I) (Ind.) Kenneth Shaw: 396 (Constitution) |
| 37 | Bryce E. Edgmon: 2,724 (I) |
William W. Weatherby: 1,868 | |
| 38 | Zach Fansler |
No candidate | |
| 39 | Neal Winston Foster (I) |
No candidate | |
| 40 | Dean Westlake |
No candidate | |
| Notes | • An (I) denotes an incumbent. | ||
| • Candidate lists can change frequently throughout an election season. Ballotpedia staff update this list monthly. To suggest changes, click here to email our State Legislature Project. | |||
Primary election
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Alaska House of Representatives in 2016 was lower than the national average. Out of 40 races in the Alaska House of Representatives in 2016, 28 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 24.7 percent. Across all contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[8]
| Republican candidates in the Alaska House of Representatives saw larger margins of victory than Democratic candidates in 2016. Independent candidates saw, on average, lower margins of victory than either of the two major parties. Republicans won 21 races in 2016. In the 18 races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 33.02 percent. Democrats won 17 races in 2016. In the eight races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 10.5 percent. Independents won two races in 2016. Both races were contested and the average margin of victory was 6.3 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republicans saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. A total of seven of the 28 contested races in 2016—25 percent—saw margins of victory that were 10 percent or less. Five races—17.8 percent—saw margins of victory that were 5 percent or less. Democrats won four races with margins of victory of 10 percent or less; Republicans won two, and an independent won one. The two lowest margins of victory were Republican victories. |
Alaska House of Representatives: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 5 D 6.0 percent District 16 D 9.6 percent District 21 D 4.8 percent District 22 I 2.4 percent District 25 R 1.3 percent District 27 R 2.0 percent District 34 D 2.2 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Alaska House who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. A total of 28 of the 35 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 18 winning Alaska House incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 23.3 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Republican incumbents in the Alaska House saw larger margins of victory than Democratic incumbents. A total of 14 Democratic incumbents won reelection. In races where winning Democratic incumbents faced challengers, their average margin of victory was 11.7 percent. A total of 13 Republican incumbents won reelection. In races where winning Republican incumbents faced challengers, their average margin of victory was 32.8 percent. There was one independent incumbent who won reelection. The margin of victory in that race was 10.1 percent. |
Alaska House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[9] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[9] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 17 10.5 percent 14 11.7 percent 7 9 52.9 percent Republican 21 33.0 percent 13 32.8 percent 3 3 14.3 percent Independent 2 6.3 percent 1 10.1 percent 0 0 N/A Total 40 24.7 percent 28 23.3 percent 10 12 30 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Alaska House districts in 2016.
| Alaska House of Representatives: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | D | Unopposed |
| District 2 | R | 47.8 percent |
| District 3 | R | 52.9 percent |
| District 4 | D | Unopposed |
| District 5 | D | 6.0 percent |
| District 6 | R | 37.6 percent |
| District 7 | R | 54.2 percent |
| District 8 | R | 63.9 percent |
| District 9 | R | 25.6 percent |
| District 10 | R | 49.0 percent |
| District 11 | R | 36.4 percent |
| District 12 | R | 41.1 percent |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 14 | R | 19.3 percent |
| District 15 | R | 35.7 percent |
| District 16 | D | 9.62 percent |
| District 17 | D | Unopposed |
| District 18 | D | 11.7 percent |
| District 19 | D | Unopposed |
| District 20 | D | Unopposed |
| District 21 | D | 4.8 percent |
| District 22 | I | 2.4 percent |
| District 23 | D | 12.6 percent |
| District 24 | R | 17.6 percent |
| District 25 | R | 1.3 percent |
| District 26 | R | 28.3 percent |
| District 27 | R | 2.0 percent |
| District 28 | R | 12.3 percent |
| District 29 | R | Unopposed |
| District 30 | R | 42.6 percent |
| District 31 | R | Unopposed |
| District 32 | R | 26.9 percent |
| District 33 | D | Unopposed |
| District 34 | D | 2.2 percent |
| District 35 | D | 18.5 percent |
| District 36 | I | 10.1 percent |
| District 37 | D | 18.6 percent |
| District 38 | D | Unopposed |
| District 39 | D | Unopposed |
| District 40 | D | Unopposed |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Alaska elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Alaska in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| January 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | Statewide municipal elections 105-day report due | |
| February 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Year start report due | |
| March 7, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day report due | |
| March 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day report due | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Candidate filing deadline | |
| July 19, 2016 | Campaign finance | 105-day report due | |
| August 16, 2016 | Ballot access | Nominating petitions due | |
| August 16, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 6, 2016 | Campaign finance | 30-day report due | |
| September 27, 2016 | Campaign finance | 7-day report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| Sources: Alaska Division of Elections, "2016-2017 Election Dates," accessed November 25, 2015 Alaska Division of Elections, "No-party Candidate Filing Instructions," accessed November 25, 2015 Alaska Public Offices Commission, "APOC Annual Calendar," accessed November 25, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 15 of the 40 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of nine Democrats and six Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 25 of the 40 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Twelve incumbents faced primary competition on August 16. Five incumbents did not seek re-election and another 23 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Five incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 35 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents—all Republicans—can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Alaska's rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Alaska Legislature 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 14.8% | 8.7% | 66.7% | 30.1 | 22 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State House in Alaska in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State House races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[10]
| Alaska House of Representatives Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 89 | $3,012,111 |
| 2012 | 102 | $3,307,207 |
| 2010 | 82 | $2,749,473 |
| 2008 | 96 | $2,913,180 |
| 2006 | 97 | $3,963,352 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state houses. The average contributions raised by state house candidates in 2014 was $59,983. Alaska, at $33,844 per candidate, is ranked 26 of 45 for state house chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s house candidates in 2014.[10][11]
Qualifications
Article II, Section 2 of the Alaska Constitution states: "A member of the legislature shall be a qualified voter who has been a resident of Alaska for at least three years and of the district from which elected for at least one year, immediately preceding his filing for office. A senator shall be at least twenty-five years of age and a representative at least twenty-one years of age."
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ A coalition between House Democrats, three Republican representatives, and two independent representatives gave effective control of the chamber to Democrats.
- ↑ 3.0 3.1 KTUU.com, "LEGISLATURE: Incumbents losing several races in Alaska primary election," accessed August 17, 2016
- ↑ KTNA.org, "DIstrict 10 challenger Eastman tops fundraising leading to Tuesday's Republican primary," accessed August 17, 2016
- ↑ ADN.com, "In GOP, 65-year-old Birch touts 'new energy' against 83-year old Lynn," accessed August 17, 2016
- ↑ ADN.com, "New political group backs legislative candidates who favor broad deficit-reduction plan," accessed August 17, 2016
- ↑ Alaska Dispatch News, "Incumbents feel sting of voters in Alaska primary election," accessed August 22, 2016
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Alaska," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
