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Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2022

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Elections by state

Last updated October 27, 2022

Ballotpedia's 2022 study of competitiveness in state executive official elections found that 37.1% of incumbents did not seek re-election, leaving those offices open. This was higher than in 2020 (35.6%) and 2014 (32.7%) but lower than in 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%). The decade average for open offices was 37.8%.

Our study also found that 19.8% of partisan races did not have major party competition (meaning either the Democratic or the Republican Party did not have a candidate on the general election ballot). This is the highest rate in any even-year election since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012. In the two previous midterm year election cycles, 2014, and 2018, the proportion of races without major party competition was 11.9% and 10.7%, respectively. The decade average for races without major party competition was 15.0%.

Key sections of analysis on this page include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • Of the 307 state executive offices up for election in 2022, 62.9% had an incumbent seeking re-election. This was consistent with the decade average of 62.2%.
  • Of the 174 incumbents subject to primaries rather than solely nominating conventions, 50.3% advanced to the general election without a contested primary.
  • In the 283 partisan races, 19.8% did not have major party competition, the highest rate since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012.

    • Of the various types of executive offices, only seven exist in all 50 states: governor, attorney general, superintendent of schools, insurance commissioner, agriculture commissioner, labor commissioner, and public service commissioner.

    Other state executive offices include lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, controller, auditor, public lands commissioner, tax commissioner, railroad commissioner, public education commissioner, mine inspector, executive council, state board of equalization, state board of education, and state board of regents.

    Defining competitiveness

    An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.

    Incumbent advantage is frequently cited in political theory and its importance frequently debated. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 28 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2020. From 2010-2020, the re-election rate averaged 92.2%.

    Incumbents not seeking re-election, 2011-2022

    There were 114 state executive office elections in 2022 without an incumbent on the general election ballot. As a percentage of all offices on the ballot, 37.1% of incumbents are not seeking re-election. This was higher than in 2020 (35.6%) and 2014 (32.7%) but lower than in 2018 (38.6%) and 2016 (45.2%). The decade average for open offices was 37.8%.

    Even-numbered election years are highlighted.
    Source: Ballotpedia

    Click [Show] on the table below to view number totals:

    *These results were not considered statistically significant due to small sample size.
    Source: Ballotpedia

    Click [show] on the table header below for complete, state-by-state information on open offices and guaranteed newcomers.

    Effect of term limits on competitiveness

    See also: Impact of term limits on state executive elections in 2022

    Of the 114 open state executive elections in 2022, 27 of them (23.7%) occurred because term limits prevented the incumbent from running again. This was an increase from the 19% rate in 2020, but down from the 43% rate in 2018, the previous time most of these offices were on the ballot. The 43% rate in 2018 was the largest number in any even-numbered election year since 2012.

    Some examples:

    • There were eight states where a new governor was guaranteed to win because the incumbent was not running for re-election. In seven of those states, the incumbent was prevented from running due to term limits. There were four Republican governors and three Democratic governors who were prevented from running for re-election because of term limits in 2022.
    • There were nine states where a new attorney general was guaranteed to win election in 2022 because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Three attorneys general—two Republicans and one Democrat—were prevented from running for re-election due to term limits in 2022.
    • There were 11 states where a new secretary of state was guaranteed to win election in 2022 because the incumbent did not run for re-election. Three secretaries of state—two Republicans and one Democrat—were prevented from running for re-election due to term limits in 2022.

    Primary election competitiveness

    See also: 2022 primary election competitiveness in state and federal government

    The following charts provide information on primary competitiveness including the total number of primaries and the number of incumbents challenged in primaries. Races where candidates are chosen exclusively through the convention process rather than primaries are not included in this analysis.

    Most state executive elections occur in midterm election cycles rather than presidential election cycles. In 2022, there was a 65.6% increase in offices up for election in 2022 compared to 2020. The number of candidates running increased by 81.1%. The number of open offices increased by 53.4%, and the number of primaries increased by 128.8%.

    Compared to the previous midterm election year in 2018, the number of offices up for election increased by 15.2%, while the number of candidates running increased by 15.5%, the number of open offices remained constant at 89, and the number of primaries increased by 24.5%.


    Incumbents in contested primaries

    In 2022, 193 incumbents sought re-election, 171 of whom had the potential to face contested primaries.[2] Of that total, 86 (50.3%) had a contested primary and 85 (49.7%) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.

    By party, 31 of the 74 Democratic incumbents that sought re-election in 2022 (41.9%) had contested primaries compared to 48 out of 86 Republican incumbents (55.8%).

    Click [show] on the table below to see details regarding incumbents in contested primaries in each state.


    Incumbents defeated

    The following table lists state executive incumbents defeated at conventions and primaries.

    Incumbents defeated before the general election
    Office Incumbent Primary/convention winner
    Defeated in conventions
    Indiana Secretary of State Republican Party Holli Sullivan Republican Party Diego Morales
    South Dakota Secretary of State Republican Party Steve Barnett Republican Party Monae Johnson
    Utah State Board of Education District 2 Republican Party Scott L. Hansen Republican Party Joseph Kerry
    Utah State Board of Education District 6 Republican Party Janet Cannon Republican Party Melanie Monestere
    Utah State Board of Education District 8 Republican Party Stacey Hutchings Republican Party Christina Boggess
    Defeated in primaries
    Delaware Auditor Democratic Party Kathy McGuiness Democratic Party Lydia York
    Office of Hawaiian Affairs Oahu Resident Trustee Grey.png Brendon Kalei'aina Lee Grey.png Kalei Akaka
    Idaho Attorney General Republican Party Lawrence Wasden Republican Party Raúl Labrador
    Idaho Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican Party Sherri Ybarra Republican Party Debbie Critchfield
    Kansas State Board of Education District 5 Republican Party Jean Clifford Republican Party Cathy Hopkins
    Kansas State Board of Education District 7 Republican Party Ben Jones Republican Party Dennis Hershberger
    Nebraska Public Service Commission District 4 Republican Party Rod Johnson Republican Party Eric Kamler
    Nebraska Public Service Commission District 5 Republican Party Mary Ridder Republican Party Kevin Stocker
    Oklahoma Attorney General Republican Party John O'Connor Republican Party Gentner Drummond
    Texas State Board of Education District 14 Republican Party Sue Melton-Malone Republican Party Evelyn Brooks
    Texas State Board of Education District 15 Republican Party Jay Johnson Republican Party Aaron Kinsey
    Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Republican Party Brian Schroeder Republican Party Megan Degenfelder

    Races without major party competition

    When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state executive office, that party is all but guaranteed to win the office. Partisan races for 56 of 283 state executive offices (19.8% of the total) did not have major party competition in 2022, the highest rate in even-year elections since Ballotpedia began collecting data in 2012.[8]

    In 2020, 27 out of 137 state executive offices up for partisan election (19.7%) did not have major party competition. In 2018, the last midterm year, 32 out of 298 offices (10.7%) lacked major party competition.

    In 2022, races for 13 offices (4.6%) did not have a Republican candidate. The offices with no Republicans on the ballot and therefore likely to be won by Democrats included:


    Races for 43 offices (15.2%) did not have a Democratic candidate. The offices with no Democrats on the ballot and therefore likely to be won by Republicans included


    Click [show] on the table below to see details of seats up for election without major party competition in each state.


    Terms and definitions

    Use the links below to view terms, definitions, and methodologies specific to the three competitiveness criteria:

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Other encompasses any offices held by minor party or independent incumbents. For offices holding nonpartisan elections, Ballotpedia relies on additional research into previous partisan positions, endorsements from political parties, and local reporting to identify party affiliation whenever possible. If a nonpartisan candidate's party affiliation cannot be found, that candidate is listed as an other candidate.
    2. ↑ The remaining incumbents were either nominated at a convention, advanced directly to the general election without a primary being held, or were lieutenant gubernatorial candidates directly selected by gubernatorial candidates.
    3. ↑ Out of all Democratic incumbents seeking re-election
    4. ↑ Out of all Republican incumbents seeking re-election
    5. ↑ Out of all other incumbents seeking re-election
    6. ↑ For offices holding nonpartisan elections, Ballotpedia relies on additional research into previous partisan positions, endorsements from political parties, and local reporting to identify party affiliation whenever possible. If a nonpartisan candidate's party affiliation cannot be found, that candidate is listed as an other candidate.
    7. ↑ Out of all incumbents seeking re-election
    8. ↑ Elections for 24 state executive offices in 2022 were nonpartisan, meaning candidates did not run with party labels. Those offices are excluded from this section of the analysis.
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