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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 0, 2010

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2010 State Legislative Elections
Impact for redistricting • Partisan control • Competitiveness analysis • Impact of Term Limits • Tea Party study
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Primary elections • Statewide elections, 2010 • State Senate elections • State House elections

By Geoff Pallay and Leslie Graves

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This article is an overview of our analysis of the degree of competitiveness in 2010's state legislative elections. The analysis utilized this 3-factor "Competitiveness Index".

Using our 3-factor "Competitiveness Index", we've contrasted each of the 46 states with 2010 state legislative elections.

According to our electoral competitiveness metric, the five most competitive state legislative chambers with elections in 2010 were:

  1. Michigan
  2. Nevada
  3. Arizona
  4. New Hampshire
  5. Hawaii

Based on our index, the five states with the least competitive elections were:

46. Texas
45. South Carolina
44. Georgia
43. New Mexico
42. Oklahoma

We arrived at these overall rankings by adding up the individual ranks from open seats, primary opposition, and major party general election challenge and then dividing by three.


This report is organized into four sections. They are:

Competitiveness overview

Competitiveness refers to the presence of choice throughout the election cycle. A greater level of competitiveness means voters have the ability to make more decisions. A lower level of competitiveness equals fewer choices.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to determine state legislative competitiveness:

These percentages are averaged to produce a State Legislative Competitiveness Index, which can range from zero (least competitive) to 100 (most competitive).

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2010

There were 6,127 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2010, in 46 states. Of that total, there were 1,143 open seats, guaranteeing at least 19% of all seats would be won by newcomers.

Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

In 2010:

  • There were 598 open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 540 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • There were five other open seats. This includes those most recently held by minor party or independent officeholders at the time of filing.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2010
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 4,958 454 411 4 869 17.5%
    Senate 1,169 144 129 1 274 23.4%
    Total 6,127 598 540 5 1,143 18.7%

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2010

    There were 6,127 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2010, in 46 states. Overall, 4,984 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 995 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2010:

  • There were 558 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 19% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election.
  • There were 436 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 21% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election.
  • There was one minor party or independent incumbent in a contested primary, representing 8% of all minor party or independent incumbents who filed for re-election.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2010
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 4,958 2,350 454 19.3% 1,730 362 20.9% 4,089 816 20.0%
    Senate 1,169 520 104 20.0% 371 74 19.9% 895 179 20.0%
    Total 6,127 2,870 558 19.4% 2,101 436 20.8% 4,984 995 20.0%

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2010

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 5,583 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 11,019 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 2,017 contested primaries, meaning 18% of all primaries were contested.

    In 2010:

  • There were 879 contested Democratic primaries, representing 16% of all possible Democratic primaries.
  • There were 1,088 contested Republican primaries, representing 20% of all possible Republican primaries.
  • There were 50 contested top-two/four primaries, representing 34% of all possible top-two/four primaries.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2010
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,414 662 15.3% 838 19.4% 34 34.7% 1,534 17.6%
    Senate 1,169 217 19.4% 250 22.3% 16 32.7% 483 21.1%
    Total 5,583 879 16.2% 1,088 20.0% 50 34.0% 2,017 18.3%

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2010

    There were 6,127 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2010, in 46 states. Of that total, 2,142 (35%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 3,985 (65%) were contested by both major parties.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2010:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win 1,006 seats (16%) that lacked Republican competition.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win 1,136 seats (19%) that lacked Democratic competition.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 4,991 seats (81%) and Republicans ran for 5,121 (84%).


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2010
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 4,958 861 17.4% 942 19.0% 1,803 36.4% 3,155 63.6%
    Senate 1,169 145 12.4% 194 16.6% 339 29.0% 830 71.0%
    Total 6,127 1,006 16.4% 1,136 18.5% 2,142 35.0% 3,985 65.0%

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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