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Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 11, 2021

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Last updated on November 25, 2024
2021 State Legislative Competitiveness
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Ballotpedia's 11th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 220 state legislative seats with elections that took place on November 2, 2021.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to analyze the competitiveness of a state's legislative elections: how many incumbents filed for re-election, how many incumbents have contested primaries, and how many seats are contested between a Democratic and Republican candidate in the general election.

State legislative competitiveness in 2021 reached a decade-high compared to all odd-year election cycles since 2011. This increased competitiveness was driven primarily by elections in the Virginia House of Delegates, one of three chambers that held elections in 2021, the others being the New Jersey state Senate and General Assembly.

Key findings of this analysis include:

  • Seventeen incumbents did not file for re-election, leaving those seats open. This represented 7.7% of all seats up for election, the lowest percentage of open seats since 2013.
  • Of the 203 incumbents seeking re-election, 40 (19.7%) had a contested primary, while 163 (80.3%) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.
  • There was a decade-high rate of major party competition. Of the 220 seats up for election, 92.7%, all but 16, were contested by both a Democrat and a Republican.


    • This report is organized into four sections. They are:

    Competitiveness overview

    See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

    Competitiveness in the 2021 state legislative elections reached a decade-high when compared to all election cycles since 2011.

    The table below shows the Competitiveness Index for the 2021 state legislative elections as well as the three factors used to calculate the index. Historical indices are also shown for odd-year election cycles. Indices range from 0 to 100 with higher numbers indicating a more competitive electoral field and lower numbers indicating the opposite. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

    State legislative Competitiveness Indices, 2011-2021
    2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 AVERAGE
    Competitiveness Index 28.1 30.3 25.4 34.9 30.8 40.0 31.6
    Open seats 17.0% 6.8% 14.7% 9.1% 19.5% 7.7% 12.5%
    Inc. in contested primaries 21.4% 11.7% 23.3% 16.0% 28.9% 19.7% 20.2%
    Seats with major party competition 46.0% 72.3% 38.3% 79.5% 44.1% 92.7% 62.2%


    The graph below combines these figures, showing how the increase in major party competition in 2021 affected the overall Competitiveness Index for the cycle.



    The table below shows state-specific competitiveness data for Virginia and New Jersey as well as ranks by each criterion. New Jersey exceeded Virginia in every competitiveness criteria in 2021 and had the highest Competitiveness Index at 41.8 compared to Virginia's 38.0.

    State legislative Competitiveness Index scores, 2021
    State Seats up
    Open seats Inc. in contested primaries Seats with major party
    competition         		Competitiveness Index
    % of seats up Rank % inc. running Rank % of seats up Rank Index Rank
    New Jersey 120 10.0% 1 21.3% 1 94.2% 1 41.8 1
    Virginia 100 5.0% 2 17.9% 2 91.0% 2 38.0 2


    Open seats

    See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2021

    There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Of that total, there were 17 open seats, guaranteeing at least 8% of all seats would be won by newcomers. This was down from 2017 (9%) but higher than in 2013 (7%).

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of open seats to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A greater number of open seats guarantees more newcomers entering legislatures and typically results in more candidates running for office. A smaller number of open seats guarantees fewer newcomers and typically results in fewer candidates running for office.

    In 2021:

  • There were seven open Democratic seats, those most recently held by Democrats at the time of filing.
  • There were 10 open Republican seats, those most recently held by Republicans at the time of filing.
  • The total number of open seats—17—was down from 20 in 2017, the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections, representing a 15% decrease.



    • Open state legislative seats, 2021
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Other Total
    # %
    House 180 6 7 0 13 7.2%
    Senate 40 1 3 0 4 10.0%
    Total 220 7 10 0 17 7.7%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of open seats from 2011 to 2021. The "Other" value includes seats left open by minor party and independent officeholders.

    Incumbents in contested primaries

    See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021

    There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Overall, 203 incumbents filed for re-election and were running at the time of their respective primaries. Of that total, 40 incumbents faced contested primaries, representing 20% of all incumbents who filed for re-election. This was the fourth-largest number and percentage of contested primaries since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

    Ballotpedia uses the number and percentage of incumbents in contested primaries to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of contested primaries indicates more opportunities for voters to elect a non-incumbent to office. A smaller number indicates fewer of those opportunities.

    In 2021:

  • There were 23 Democratic incumbents in contested primaries, representing 18% of all Democratic incumbents who filed for re-election, a 10% increase from 2017.
  • There were 17 Republican incumbents in contested primaries, representing 22% of all Republican incumbents who filed for re-election, a 55% increase from 2017.
  • No minor party or independent incumbents faced contested primaries.
  • The total number of incumbents in contested primaries—40—was up from 2017 (32), the last time both states held elections, representing a 25% increase.



    • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021
    Chamber Seats
    Democratic Republican Total[1]
    Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. % Filed Cont. %
    House 180 101 20 19.8% 66 16 24.2% 167 36 21.6%
    Senate 40 24 3 12.5% 12 1 8.3% 36 4 11.1%
    Total 220 125 23 18.4% 78 17 21.8% 203 40 19.7%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of incumbents in contested primaries from 2011 to 2021.

    All contested primaries

    See also: Contested state legislative primaries, 2021

    This section shows figures on all contested state legislative primaries, regardless of whether an incumbent was present. There were 180 state legislative districts up for election nationwide, creating 332 possible primaries. Of that total, there were 44 contested primaries, meaning 13% of all primaries were contested. This was down from 2017 (14%), which was the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections.

    In 2021:

  • There were 27 contested Democratic primaries, representing 16% of all possible Democratic primaries and an 18% decrease from 2017.
  • There were 17 contested Republican primaries, representing 11% of all possible Republican primaries and a 6% decrease from 2017.
  • The total number of contested primaries—44—was down from 51 in 2017, the last time only New Jersey and Virginia held elections, representing a 14% decrease.



    • Contested state legislative primaries, 2021
    Chamber Districts
    Democratic Republican Top-two/four Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 140 23 17.6% 14 11.6% 0 - 37 14.7%
    Senate 40 4 10.0% 3 7.5% 0 - 7 8.8%
    Total 180 27 15.8% 17 10.6% 0 N/A 44 13.3%

    The chart below shows a breakdown of contested primaries from 2011 to 2021.

    Major party competition

    See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2021

    There were 220 state legislative seats up for election on November 2, 2021, in two states. Of that total, 16 (7%) were uncontested and had no major party competition. The remaining 204 (93%) were contested by both major parties. This was the smallest number and percentage of seats with no major party competition since Ballotpedia began gathering data in 2011.

    Ballotpedia uses the level of major party competition to help determine the overall competitiveness of an election cycle. A larger number of seats without major party competition indicates fewer options on the ballot. A smaller number indicates more options.

    In 2021:

  • Democrats were guaranteed to win nine seats (4%) that lacked Republican competition, a 73% decrease from 2017.
  • Republicans were guaranteed to win seven seats (3%) that lacked Democratic competition, a 42% decrease from 2017.
  • Overall, Democrats ran for 213 seats (97%) and Republicans ran for 211 (96%).
  • The total number of seats without major party competition—16—was less than in 2017 (45), the last time both states held elections, representing a 64% decrease.


    • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2021
    Chamber Seats
    Uncontested Contested
    Only Democrats Only Republicans Total
    # % # % # % # %
    House 180 07 3.9% 07 3.9% 14 7.8% 166 92.2%
    Senate 40 02 5.0% 00 0.0% 02 5.0% 38 95.0%
    Total 220 09 4.1% 07 3.2% 16 7.3% 204 92.7%

    Historical comparison

    The chart below shows a breakdown of major party competition in state legislative elections from 2011 to 2021.

    See also


    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Totals may include minor party or independent officeholders.
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