Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

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Arizona's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Tom O'Halleran (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+2
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Lean Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Arizona's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special)
Arizona elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Incumbent Tom O'Halleran (D) defeated Wendy Rogers (R) in the general election for Arizona's 1st Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

The 1st District was one of 13 districts that voted for both President Trump (R) and a Democratic representative—O'Halleran—in the 2016 election. O'Halleran won the district by 7 points in 2016, and Trump won by 1 point. The National Republican Congressional Committee placed the district on its 2018 target list.[1][2]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 1

Incumbent Tom O'Halleran defeated Wendy Rogers in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom O'Halleran
Tom O'Halleran (D)
 
53.8
 
143,240
Image of Wendy Rogers
Wendy Rogers (R)
 
46.1
 
122,784
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.0
 
65

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 266,089
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 1

Incumbent Tom O'Halleran advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 1 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Tom O'Halleran
Tom O'Halleran
 
100.0
 
64,114

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 64,114
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 1

Wendy Rogers defeated Steve Smith and Tiffany Shedd in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 1 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Wendy Rogers
Wendy Rogers
 
43.7
 
30,180
Image of Steve Smith
Steve Smith
 
37.0
 
25,552
Image of Tiffany Shedd
Tiffany Shedd
 
19.2
 
13,260

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 68,992
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Green primary election

No Green candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages
Tom O'Halleran, U.S. Representative
Tom O'Halleran.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. Representative from Arizona (Assumed office: 2017), Arizona State Senate (2007-2009), Arizona House of Representatives, (2001-2006)

Biography: O'Halleran's professional experience includes working as a bond trader and business owner. He also worked as a police officer in Chicago. He attended Lewis University.

Key messages
  • O'Halleran's campaign website stated that his economic policies included investing in education, job-training, research, and infrastructure to have a competitive advantage as a state and country. He also wanted to modernize the tax and regulatory system[3]
  • He also said he would shield Social Security and Medicare and that he does not support the programs' privatizations or making them into vouchers.[3]
  • His campaign website stated, "A government that truly serves the people needs to be managed efficiently, responsively, and with an eye towards the many issues facing a diverse constituency. We need to improve educational achievement, rebuild our crumbling infrastructure, and work towards a living wage so that families can stay together and prosper."[4]


Wendy Rogers, home inspector
Wendy Rogers.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Political office: None.

Biography: Rogers was a member of the Air Force, where she served as a pilot. Rogers retired from the Air Force in 1996 and started a home inspection business with her husband. She holds a bachelor's and master's degree in clinical social work from the University of Alabama.[5]

Key messages
  • Rogers campaigned on her support for preventing illegal immigration. She said part of this should include building a border wall. Rogers wanted to end what she calls chain migration and the visa lottery system.[6]
  • Rogers supported overturning Roe v. Wade. She said she "will stand up for the sanctity of human life and fight to stop tax dollars from going to organizations that perform abortions."[6]
  • Her website stated that she was "uniquely able to serve the needs of the First Congressional District because she is able to pilot her own aircraft into many of the short-field runways in remote rural areas."[7]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
Poll Poll sponsor Tom O'Halleran Wendy RogersUndecidedMargin of ErrorSample Size
Optimus
October 31-November 1, 2018		None 48%45%8%+/-3.6756
American Viewpoint
October 16-18, 2018		None 46%46%5%+/-4.9400
Go Right Strategies
October 10-11, 2018		Rogers campaign 37.5%44.4%18.1%+/-3.0943
Shock
September 27-28, 2018		Rogers campaign 36.23%39.44%24.33%+/-4.0738
Note: A "0%" finding means the question was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party $2,748,953 $2,760,248 $5,932 As of December 31, 2018
Wendy Rogers Republican Party $1,423,837 $1,427,124 $1,702 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[8][9][10]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

General election

  • The Credit Union Legislative Action Council spent a little over $76,000 on direct mail supporting O'Halleran on October 17.[11]

Primary election

  • Defending Rural Arizona, a pro-Rogers super PAC, spent $160,978 toward the race through August 20. Of that, $15,163 was spent on digital advertising opposing Steve Smith, while the rest was spent on various media and canvassing activities in support of Rogers.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 1st Congressional District the 218th most Republican nationally.[13]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[14]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.

Click the links below to see endorsement lists published on candidate campaign websites, if available.

Tom O'Halleran

Wendy Rogers

Campaign advertisements

This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.

Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran

Support

"Pay" - Tom O'Halleran campaign ad, released September 5, 2018

Oppose

"O'Halleran for Open Borders" - Rogers campaign ad, released October 9, 2018

The Rogers campaign released an ad criticizing O'Halleran on September 9, 2018.

Republican Party Wendy Rogers

Oppose

"Believe Her," released October 23, 2018
"AZ-01 DCCC ad opposing Wendy Rogers," released September 7, 2018


Campaign themes

Wendy Rogers

The section below was obtained from Rogers' 2018 campaign website.[6]

Secure our Borders, Build the Wall, and Crack Down on Law Breakers

America’s immigration system is broken. As do the majority of Americans, I support LEGAL immigration as much as I oppose ILLEGAL immigration. Unfortunately, the career politicians and special interests in Washington are playing political games with both—and for decades, nothing meaningful has gotten done. Both legal and illegal immigration must be fixed.

America is a beacon of freedom and opportunity around the world and must remain so. We should be a nation where law-abiding people can come to pursue the American dream, without having to wait a decade or more. Yet we must be able to control our borders in order to preserve our sovereignty, protect our communities, and defend our nation from those who would do us harm.

We must build a border wall to protect our southern border which is virtually porous. We must end chain migration as well as the dangerous visa lottery that imports potential terrorists from nations that hate us and want to do us harm. We must beef up our border security as well as crack down on violent gangs like MS-13. We need to turn off the financial incentive magnets that draw so many here with little to no risk to them financially. We must put American workers first, not bring in new people who drastically bring about wage suppression. Lastly, we need an E-Verify system that makes it easier to track who is coming in and out of our nation.

Protect our Right to Keep and Bear Arms

The Founding Fathers were very clear in their intent when they wrote the Second Amendment to the Constitution: the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. They believed that all law-abiding American citizens had the right to own and maintain firearms in order to defend themselves and their families from those who would do them harm.

As a retired member of the United States Air Force and as a current Concealed Carry Weapons (CCW) permit holder, I take our fundamental rights very seriously. As your representative in Congress, you can depend on me to always fight to uphold your right to bear arms.

I do not support banning accessories, banning different types of weapons, or raising the age to own a firearm. All law-abiding adults in this nation have a right to defend themselves from attackers.

Defend Life, Our Values, and Religious Liberty

As did America’s founders, who recognized the right to life as a fundamental human freedom, I believe that every human life is worthy of respect and protection. In Congress, I will stand up for the sanctity of human life and fight to stop tax dollars from going to organizations that perform abortions. Planned Parenthood should receive zero tax dollars and is a destructive organization which should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity, the defenseless unborn.

I believe that the institution of marriage in its traditional definition of one man and one woman is one of the institutions that has kept the fabric of American society strong. I am committed to preserving traditional marriage, and to defending an individual’s right to conscience, religious institutions, and private organizations as enshrined in the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

I support overturning Roe vs. Wade and will do all I can to help this cause.

More Jobs, Fiscal Responsibility, and Economic Growth

I believe we can reduce the tax and regulatory burden on families and job providers as an important first step toward jump-starting our nation’s economy. Government doesn’t create jobs, but government can prevent jobs from being created. Big government has over-taxed and over-regulated our economy to such an extent that employment opportunities have largely been replaced with welfare realities. This isn’t the future we wanted for our children and grandchildren, and it’s time we turned things around.

So let’s get Congress and the federal government out of the way of real job growth. Let’s get politicians and special interests out of the way of real employment gains. If Washington wasn’t so worried about who was going to take credit for success, America’s economy would likely be moving more quickly than it is today.

Small businesses account for a large majority of America’s job base. My spouse and I have owned and operated a small business for 21 years. We sign the front of a paycheck and must balance a budget. The more government grows, the more it pushes small business out of the way. Only by balancing the budget, reducing the tax and regulatory burden on businesses, incentivizing innovation and capital reinvestment, and getting government bureaucrats out of America’s boardrooms will we be able to return our nation to the economic powerhouse we once were.

The Federal Reserve wields far too much power, manipulating the markets for the benefit of a select few. A handful of unelected, unaccountable “experts” have absolute control of our monetary policy, and Congress does little to provide effective oversight. Recurring bubbles, booms, and busts hurt everyday Americans, while insiders rake in massive profits. This is not how a free society should operate. Our Founding Fathers did not intend one entity to have the power to create, print, and lend money without accountability. When I get to Congress, I will work to rein in the Federal Reserve, starting with a comprehensive audit. I will also fight for sound fiscal policies, which will begin to pay down our massive national debt.

Finally, Repeal Obamacare, Unleash the Free Market

The simple fact is that Obamacare increases health care premiums on Arizona families, the exact opposite of its intended goal. It raises taxes on employers, which will ultimately cost Arizona jobs. And it included more than $700 billion in cuts to Medicare, which will deliver added woes to Arizona seniors already struggling to balance limited incomes with increasing medical costs.

In addition, Obamacare will likely cripple our existing health care system. These huge cuts to Medicaid are causing more doctors and more hospitals to limit or stop taking Medicaid patients altogether.

In Congress, I will work to repeal and defund Obamacare, and will join my colleagues to replace it with a common-sense alternative that increases access, reduces costs for all Americans, protects seniors, incentivizes innovation and the reduction of fraud and waste, and makes our nation’s health system more efficient. The new solution must be based on private-sector solutions, getting government out of the way, and opening up competition across state lines.

The American people deserve a health care system that promotes actual health, not one that places the IRS in charge of health policy mandates. For our seniors, children, and all Arizona families, we have a moral obligation to rise to this challenge.

It is time to unleash the free market, and we will be amazed at the options it produces.

Rebuild our Military and Take Care of our Veterans

America’s security is under constant threat. I believe we have a responsibility to maintain America’s military preparedness against all foreseeable threats. An aggressive China, a resurgent Russia, the proliferation of nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union, rogue nations from the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula, and the rise of ISIS and other radical Islamic terrorists intent on killing innocent victims around the world are just a few of the potential security threats we must be ready to address without warning.

The brave soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, coast guardsmen, Reserves, and National Guardsmen who protect our nation at home and abroad, each and every day, deserve our support – and they deserve better than they’ve received in recent years. Servicemen and women sent into harm’s way should be the best trained in the world, and the best equipped. When they return home from service, our veterans should be served by a swift and efficient Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Today, however, our VA is backlogged with years of claims sitting unprocessed. The men and women who fought for our nation are treated with neglect by an inefficient bureaucracy, and this must end. As a 5th generation military officer, I am committed to preserving America’s armed forces and protecting our national security from all threats.

Get the Government out of Education, Empower Parents and Local Communities

There is no more important issue facing America today than the strength of our nation’s schools and the quality of the education our children are receiving. President Reagan said, “As a nation, we are dedicated to excellence in education. It makes a better life for our children as individuals, and it further secures the liberty we cherish.”

In Congress, my goal is to empower states, cities, school districts, and schools with the tools necessary to recapture education in America. All American citizens, be they children or adults, must be equipped to succeed in an increasingly global marketplace. Congress shouldn’t be dictating education policy but should be getting out of the way so that states, local government, and private organizations can take care of children. Local control of education has always been what spurred American education, innovation, and creativity to greatness.

I have long believed that parents, teachers and local school districts are the best ones to meet the educational needs of their students, if only we let them do their jobs. But for decades, Congress has failed students miserably. The federal government has set up a multi-billion dollar bureaucracy for schools and school districts to navigate, robbing billions and billions of dollars from the classroom, out of the hands of teachers, and as far away from students as possible. We must finalize the end of Common Core and return control back to the states and local governments.

The result of Congress’s failure in education policy has been declining test scores, fewer teachers entering the profession, bigger class sizes, a crumbling education infrastructure, and American students falling behind many of their counterparts around the world. We cannot continue to throw money at a broken system hoping a few extra dollars will change the results of policies that have never worked and never will. In Congress, I will work to get government out of the way so that the private sector, parents, and local school districts can take advantage of the ever involving educational landscape.

Cut Taxes and Red Tape

Each year, American families, individuals, and businesses spend over $330 billion just to comply with the federal tax code. For lawyers and accountants, not to mention the IRS, this is probably good business. But that’s one-third of a trillion dollars which citizens and businesses could be spending elsewhere – on research and development of new products and industries, on new technologies, on research grants and scholarships, just to name a few.

Additionally, the Obama/IRS scandal, which only seems to be growing increasingly broader and more out of control—leads me to echo the calls by a growing number of people who believe we have reached a point of no return. It’s time for the Tax Code and the IRS to go In its place, I believe we need tax massive tax cuts, and am so glad President Trump passed the largest tax cut in several decades. People are getting bonus checks, the stock market is climbing, and salaries are going up. Great progress!

I believe we need even more tax cuts. My principles on this are very simple. We need a tax structure that: 1. Simplifies the tax system. 2. Favors Americans first. 3. Reduces the overall tax burden. 4. Promotes economic growth instead of inhibits growth.

By eliminating as much as we can from today’s tax code, eliminating the IRS, and replacing our current system with one that puts all Americans on an even footing, we immediately end one of the most draconian federal agencies in history – and one which recently has proven it can be used for nefarious purposes – to harass and punish innocent American citizens and conservative organizations.

It is time to rein in taxes and government, as well as rein in the IRS.

Make America Energy Independent

America has great energy resources, but politics and radical special interests are preventing us from utilizing them. Meanwhile, we languish while importers remain reliant upon the whims of radical Islamic tyrants and Middle East despots who use their oil and gas supplies to dictate international politics.

Each year, America imports more than $400 billion in energy. We are stuck in a cycle of borrowing money from China to buy oil from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Wouldn’t it be better to spend those dollars here at home?

I am so glad President Trump approved the Keystone pipeline, opened up drilling in ANWR, and opened up offshore drilling. He is also scaling back massive crippling regulations that hurt our energy sector, which is creating a new economic boom. I will support the president while in Congress to further these efforts.

We must have clean coal and expand mining efforts all across the nation. This is good for energy prices and exports but is also good for American jobs.

The reality is, we can be doing much more to increase domestic energy production while safeguarding our environment, and increasing our own national and economic security. In Congress I will support the siting of new domestic oil refineries, investment into the latest advances in nuclear energy, and proper investment into solar and wind power.

Preserve our History and Culture

Our nation has a very proud and rich history. Liberal radicals and foreign interests are trying to reduce the impact America has had on the world. When our nation was founded in 1776, there was nothing like it. The very founding the United States of America spurred a global cause of freedom that impacted countless nations.

The fact that liberals want to erase Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, Christopher Columbus, and the 10 Ten Commandments from our national heritage is outrageous.

Tom O'Halleran

The section below was obtained from Tom O'Halleran's 2018 campaign website.

Jobs and the Economy

Tom believes that in order for our economy to grow, we must end policies that pressure middle class families and take action to create good-paying jobs. The deck has been stacked against middle-class families and small businesses for too long. Hard-working Arizonans are having a hard time affording a basic standard of living, and many can no longer afford to send their own children to our state universities—that’s not right.

Tom’s economic policies are aimed toward boosting the economy and supporting the small businesses and hard-working families who drive our economy. By investing in education, job-training, research, and infrastructure, we can keep our competitive advantage as a state and country and prepare for the jobs of the future. To keep our competitive edge, we must also modernize our tax and regulatory system to foster innovation and replace outdated or burdensome regulations. It is also time for the American public, whose wages have remained stagnant over decades, to receive a well-deserved raise. We can start by raising the minimum wage and supporting equal-pay for equal work. The U.S. economy is prosperous, but its rewards are going to corporations and the rich—people who work for a living have been cut out of the deal. That has to change.

Natural resources and tourism are a major components of Arizona’s economy. Tom O’Halleran has been a leader on forestry and water issues both inside and outside of the legislature. He will continue his work to protect our natural resources for future generations and protect this vital part of our economy.

Tom believes that we must leave future generations with more opportunities.

Social Security and Medicare

Tom will protect Social Security and Medicare from those who support dangerous schemes to privatize the programs, hand them over the Wall Street or turn them into “vouchers.” He knows that Social Security is not an “entitlement program”—it is a commitment that has been made to America’s seniors after a lifetime of work. Over decades, America's workers and small businesses have paid into the Social Security trust fund, and now they should not have their retirement security threatened by politicians and special interests in Washington. Social Security is also crucial to the stability of our economy. That is why Tom will always fight against any attempt to privatize Social Security or reduce its benefits.

Many of the same politicians and special interests who would like to privatize Social Security also propose to end the Medicare guarantee. This would leave millions of American seniors struggling to pay the high cost of medical care and prescription drugs. This is unacceptable, and Tom O’Halleran will always fight against any attempt replace Medicare with a voucher scheme.

Veterans

There is no more sacred commitment than the one we have made with America’s veterans. We must take care of those who have fought for our freedom by ensuring that they have proper access to their veterans’ benefits, healthcare, and ensuring that we have programs to help with job placement and training. The perpetual mismanagement of the VA hospitals around the country is unacceptable and has a detrimental impact to the health and well being of our veterans. This is not consistent with our values, and it is our obligation to ensure that the brave men and women who have served in our armed forces do not have to struggle to see their doctor. In many cases, the VA lacks the medical specialists to care for all the vets who need treatment. In these cases, veterans should be able to get the care they need outside the VA system, on the VA’s dime.

While in the Arizona State Legislature, Tom led a successful effort that doubled the number of benefit counselors in the state of Arizona. Tom’s commitment is to continue this fight as long as any veteran has to wait a day too long for care or is not being provided the benefits they earned.

Education

Investing in our children’s education not only benefits the individual child and families, but also is an investment in our state and country’s economic future. Our children’s education is one of the most important parts of their lives. It is a critical factor for future wage earning and being able to provide for their future families. A solid education creates responsible and engaged citizens. Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) education is important for a knowledge-based economy. And we must remember the importance of vocational training. After decades of schools falling farther behind other countries, it is time to make education a priority again for our children in America and Arizona.

While in the legislature, Tom led a bipartisan group that passed all-day kindergarten and made substantial investments in all levels of our schools, including research facilities at our three state universities that have been an economic driver and created good-paying jobs.

Among other education initiatives, Tom fought for funding teacher salaries and to retain soft capital (money that goes toward books and computers). He worked to maintain funding for new schools and school maintenance, which helped local property tax payers not pay as high a rate as they otherwise would to maintain their schools.

Immigration

There is perhaps no greater example of gridlock in Washington than this issue of immigration reform. The federal government has continually failed to secure our borders or fix America’s broken immigration system. While there is broad consensus on the steps that we can take to improve our system, immigration reform has stalled because of a lack of will among some politicians and others who would rather have a political issue to complain about than actually solve our problem. The security of our citizens and the rule of law are too important to be stalled based on purely political considerations. Congress has an obligation to act and fix this problem.

Tom supports immigration reform that secures our border, keeps families together, and meets the needs of our economy. Tom also supports the DREAM Act, which allows young people who were brought to this country as children the chance to pursue their education or join the military.

The broken immigration system disproportionately affects Arizona and fixing it is critical to our economy. Tom will work toward reform that keeps our communities safe, our economy strong, and our families together.

Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Facebook

Republican Party Wendy Rogers Facebook

Democratic district won by Donald Trump

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[15] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.


2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran D+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Democratic Party Dave Loebsack D+12.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Cheri Bustos D+23.6 Trump+0.7 Obama+17.0
Minnesota's 1st Democratic Party Tim Walz Republican Party Jim Hagedorn R+0.4 Trump+14.9 Obama+1.4
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Democratic Party Collin Peterson D+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Minnesota's 8th Democratic Party Rick Nolan Republican Party Pete Stauber R+5.5 Trump+15.6 Obama+5.5
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Chris Pappas D+11.7 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer D+11.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.1
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Democratic Party Susie Lee D+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney D+10.2 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright[16] Democratic Party Matt Cartwright D+9.2 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 14th Democratic Party Conor Lamb[17] Republican Party Guy Reschenthaler R+15.9 Trump+29.0 Romney+17.7
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Democratic Party Ron Kind D+19.4 Trump+4.5 Obama+11.0


Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[18][19]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.


District history

2016

See also: Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Arizona's 1st Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick (D) chose not to seek re-election to pursue a U.S. Senate bid. Tom O'Halleran (D) defeated Paul Babeu (R), Kim Allen (L write-in), and Ray Parrish (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Babeu defeated Ken Bennett, Gary Kiehne, Wendy Rogers, Shawn Redd, and David Gowan in the Republican primary, while O'Halleran defeated Miguel Olivas to win the Democratic nomination. The primary elections took place on August 30, 2016.[20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTom O'Halleran 50.7% 142,219
     Republican Paul Babeu 43.4% 121,745
     Green Ray Parrish 6% 16,746
Total Votes 280,710
Source: Arizona Secretary of State


U.S. House, Arizona District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Babeu 30.8% 19,533
Gary Kiehne 23.4% 14,854
Wendy Rogers 22.4% 14,222
Ken Bennett 16.7% 10,578
Shawn Redd 3.3% 2,098
David Gowan 3.3% 2,091
Total Votes 63,376
Source: Arizona Secretary of State
U.S. House, Arizona District 1 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTom O'Halleran 58.8% 30,833
Miguel Olivas 41.2% 21,632
Total Votes 52,465
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

See also: Arizona's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

Arizona's 1st Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the seat was held by a Democrat, but the district had a slight Republican lean. Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Andy Tobin triumphed over Gary Kiehne and Adam Kwasman. The race between Tobin and Kiehne remained too close to call for over a week following the primary. In the end, Tobin won by 0.7 percent of the vote. Kirkpatrick ultimately defeated Tobin in the general election on November 4, 2014.[30][31][32]

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick Incumbent 52.6% 97,391
     Republican Andy Tobin 47.4% 87,723
Total Votes 185,114
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
 ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[33][34]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008," accessed May 17, 2018
  2. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces Initial Offensive Targets For The 2018 Cycle," February 8, 2017
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 Tom O'Halleran 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed September 10, 2018
  4. ↑ Tom O'Halleran 2018 campaign website, "Tom's Vision," accessed September 10, 2018
  5. ↑ Wendy Rogers, "Meet Wendy Rogers," accessed July 29, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Wendy Rogers, "Wendy Rogers on the Issues," accessed July 29, 2018
  7. ↑ Wendy Rogers 2018 campaign website, "Meet Wendy Rogers," accessed September 10, 2018
  8. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  9. ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  10. ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  11. ↑ Credit Union National Association, "CUNA launches first round of IEs for 2018 midterms," October 17, 2018
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: National GOP cuts back on TV ads in a sign of pessimism on Minnesota governor's race," September 17, 2018
  13. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  14. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  15. ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  16. ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
  17. ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
  18. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  19. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  20. ↑ Azcentral, "Tom O’Halleran running for Congress as Democrat," August 4, 2015
  21. ↑ Casa Grande Dispatch, "Coolidge man makes another run for Congress," November 28, 2015
  22. ↑ WMIcentral.com, "White Mountains’ James Maloney announces bid for Congress," December 14, 2015
  23. ↑ Southern Arizona News-Examiner, "Republican Gary Kiehne will run again in 2016 for CD1," February 11, 2015
  24. ↑ Azcentral, "Bennett to run for Congress in 1st District," July 13, 2015
  25. ↑ Roll Call, "Arizona Sheriff Babeu Enters Race for Kirkpatrick’s Seat," October 5, 2015
  26. ↑ Azcentral, "Wendy Rogers launches third bid for Congress," January 13, 2016
  27. ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
  28. ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
  29. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
  30. ↑ Politico, "2014 Arizona House Primaries Results," accessed August 27, 2014
  31. ↑ KTAR, "Andy Tobin wins Arizona's 1st Congressional District GOP primary," September 2, 2014
  32. ↑ The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014
  33. ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  34. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018
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Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
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Vacant
District 8
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