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Arizona's 1st Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

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Arizona's 1st Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Tom O'Halleran (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): R+2
Cook Political Report: Likely Democratic
Inside Elections: Lean Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Arizona's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special)
Arizona elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Retired Air Force pilot Wendy Rogers won the Republican primary. Rogers received 44 percent of the vote, with state Sen. Steve Smith second at 38 percent.

The 1st District is one of 13 districts that voted for both President Donald Trump (R) and a Democratic representative (Tom O'Halleran) in the 2016 election. O'Halleran, who sought re-election in 2018, won by 7 points in 2016, and Trump won by 1 point. The National Republican Congressional Committee placed the district on its 2018 target list.[1][2]

The three candidates largely agreed on the issues of supporting President Trump, building a wall along the Arizona-Mexico border, reducing gun restrictions, repealing Obamacare, opposing abortion, and reducing taxes. The key differences lied in their experience, the emphasis placed on certain policy issues, and the endorsers who lined up behind them.

Rogers, a retired Air Force pilot, made her support for the president central to her campaign.[3] She highlighted her support for building a border wall, reducing gun restrictions, and overturning Roe v. Wade. Rogers' endorsers included U.S. Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), several conservative PACs, and local elected officials.[4]

Smith was the only candidate with experience in elected office. He pointed to his voting record as evidence of his efforts to reduce illegal immigration and to recognition he has received from Americans for Prosperity to attest to his support for lowering taxes.[5] His endorsers included House Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows, the National Border Patrol Council, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), and a number of state legislators.[6]

Farmer and attorney Tiffany Shedd also ran in the race. She emphasized her 1st District roots and had support from several U.S. representatives and local elected officials.[7] Shedd referred to her experience as a farmer near the border as the reason she supported a border wall. She also said she supported limiting federal government involvement in education and business due to her experiences as a homeschooling mother and farmer.[8]



Election results

Wendy Rogers defeated Steve Smith and Tiffany Shedd in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 1 on August 28, 2018.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 1

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Wendy Rogers
Wendy Rogers
 
43.7
 
30,180
Image of Steve Smith
Steve Smith
 
37.0
 
25,552
Image of Tiffany Shedd
Tiffany Shedd
 
19.2
 
13,260

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 68,992
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidates

Wendy Rogers

Wendy Rogers.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Wendy Rogers was a member of the Air Force, where she served as a pilot. Rogers retired from the Air Force in 1996 and started a home inspection business with her husband. She holds a bachelor's and master's degree in clinical social work from the University of Alabama.[9]

Rogers campaigned on her support for preventing illegal immigration and overturning Roe v. Wade and her opposition to firearms regulations such as bans on weapons or accessories.[3]

Tiffany Shedd

Tiffany Shedd.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Shedd and her husband began farming cotton and wheat in 1989 on their farm in Eloy, Arizona. She is also a small business attorney and firearms instructor. She earned a bachelor's degree in elementary education and a J.D. from the University of Arizona.[10]

Shedd's platform included securing the border, caring for veterans, and repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act. She is a self-described constitutional conservative.[8]

Shedd was endorsed in the primary by Sen. Jon Kyl (R), Arizona Secretary of State Michele Reagan, state Sen. Tim Dunn (R), and Pinal County Supervisor Stephen Miller.[7]

Steve Smith

Steve Smith.gif

Campaign website Facebook Twitter
Smith was first elected to the Arizona State Senate in 2014, representing District 11. Prior to that, he represented District 23 from 2010 until 2013. He previously served in the Arizona House of Representatives, representing District 11 from 2013 to 2015.

Smith earned his B.A. in Marketing from Michigan State University. His professional experience includes running a talent agency.

Smith's campaigning focused on his work in the state legislature to lower taxes, decrease regulation, and create a stronger education system. He was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz (R), Rep. Andy Biggs (R), and Rep. Debbie Lesko (R).[6]

Endorsements

Republican primary endorsements
Endorsement Tiffany Shedd[7] Steve Smith[6] Wendy Rogers[4]
National figures
Former Sen. Jon Kyl (R) ✔
Former U.S. Rep. Barry Goldwater Jr. ✔
Trump's 2016 deputy campaign manager David Bossie ✔
Federal officials
Rep./House Freedom Caucus leader Mark Meadows (R) ✔
Sen. Ted Cruz (R) ✔
Rep. Jim Jordan (R) ✔
Rep. Andy Biggs (R) ✔
Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R) ✔
Rep. Debbie Lesko (R) ✔
Rep. Susan Brooks (R) ✔
Rep. Ann Wagner (R) ✔
Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) ✔
Rep. Sean Duffy (R) ✔
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R) ✔
Rep. Karen Handel (R) ✔
Rep. Martha Roby (R) ✔
Rep. Michael Conaway (R) ✔
Rep. Glenn Thompson (R) ✔
Rep. Mike Rogers (R) ✔
Rep. Austin Scott (R) ✔
Rep. Rick Crawford (R) ✔
Rep. John Faso (R) ✔
State figures
AZ treasurer/former Trump campaign COO Jeff DeWit ✔
AZ Secretary of State Michele Reagan (R) ✔
State Sen. Steve Yarbrough (R) ✔
State Sen. Kimberly Yee (R) ✔
State Sen. Gail Griffin (R) ✔
State Sen. Sylvia Allen (R) ✔
State Rep. Bob Thorpe (R) ✔
State Rep. Drew John (R) ✔
State Rep. J.D. Mesnard (R) ✔
State Rep. John Allen (R) ✔
State Rep. Kelly Townsend (R) ✔
State Rep. Vince Leach (R) ✔
State Rep. Mark Finchem (R) ✔
State Rep. Becky Nutt (R) ✔
State Rep. Karen Fann (R) ✔
Arizona Corporate Commissioner Andy Tobin ✔
Former Arizona State Treasurer Jeff DeWit ✔
State Rep. Drew John (R) ✔
State Rep. Tim Dunn (R) ✔
Former state Sen. Jonathan Paton ✔
Former state Sen. President Steve Pierce ✔
Former state Rep. Bill McGibbon ✔
Former state Rep. Roger Hooper ✔
Local officials
Former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio ✔
City of Maricopa Councilman Vince Manfredi ✔
Pinal County Supervisor Tony Smith ✔
Maricopa County Attorney Bill Montgomery ✔
Yavapai County Supervisor Jack Smith ✔
4 Mayors (of Casa Grande, Williams, Marana, and Pima) ✔
Graham County Sheriff Allred ✔
Coconino County Supervisor Jim Parks ✔
Graham County Supervisor Danny Smith ✔
Graham County Supervisor Jim Palmer ✔
Flagstaff Councilman Rick Lopez ✔
Casa Grande Councilman Dick Powell ✔
Casa Grande Councilman Matt Herman ✔
Safford Councilman Mike Andazola ✔
Miami Councilman Jose Medina ✔
Graham County Assessor Darlene Alder ✔
Stafford City Councilman Chris Taylor ✔
Miami City Councilman Jose Angel Medina ✔
Yavapai Board of Supervisors Rowle P. Simmons ✔
Graham County Arizona Board of Supervisors Danny Smith ✔
Town Manager Springerville Steve West ✔
Former Pinal County GOP Chairman Marty Hermanson ✔
Former Tea Party President of Graham County Don Carter ✔
Mayor of Eagar Bryce Hamblin ✔
Vice Mayor of Eagar Steve Erhart ✔
Page City Councilman Mark Cormier ✔
Pinal County Supervisor Stephen Miller ✔
Organizations
Tea Party Nation ✔
Winning for Women ✔
Maggie's List ✔
Freedom Works for America ✔
National Border Patrol Council ✔
Tea Party Express ✔
PACs
View PAC ✔
Family Research Council Action ✔
Right Now Women PAC ✔
Defending Rural Arizona[11] ✔
Americans for Legal Immigration PAC ✔
Stand With POTUS PAC ✔
Courageous Conservatives PAC ✔
Americans for Firearms Rights PAC ✔


Campaign finance

The table below contains information obtained from the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Wendy Rogers Republican Party $1,423,837 $1,427,124 $1,702 As of December 31, 2018
Tiffany Shedd Republican Party $598,230 $594,797 $3,433 As of December 31, 2018
Steve Smith Republican Party $438,888 $438,702 $186 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Pre-primary report: July 1-August 8

Pre-primary reports, representing campaign finance totals from July 1 through August 8, were due in mid-August.

Campaign finance pre-primary report[12]
Candidate Filing deadline Contributions Expenditures Cash on Hand
Steve Smith August 16, 2018 $36,786.00 $140,136.70 $155,201.01
Tiffany Shedd August 16, 2018 $32,467.01 $226,970.32 $50,172.52
Wendy Rogers August 16, 2018 $90,062.80 $302,185.10 $69,181.23

Satellite spending

  • Defending Rural Arizona, a pro-Rogers super PAC, spent $160,978 toward the race through August 20. Of that, $15,163 was spent on digital advertising opposing Steve Smith, while the rest was spent on various media and canvassing activities in support of Rogers.
  • Courageous Conservatives PAC spent $47,361 through August 21. The money went toward marketing and advertising in support of Rogers.
  • Western Liberty PAC spent $16,500 on telecommunications in support of Tiffany Shedd on August 20.

Campaign themes and policy stances

Campaign themes

Wendy Rogers

The section below was obtained from Rogers' 2018 campaign website.[3]

Secure our Borders, Build the Wall, and Crack Down on Law Breakers

America’s immigration system is broken. As do the majority of Americans, I support LEGAL immigration as much as I oppose ILLEGAL immigration. Unfortunately, the career politicians and special interests in Washington are playing political games with both—and for decades, nothing meaningful has gotten done. Both legal and illegal immigration must be fixed.

America is a beacon of freedom and opportunity around the world and must remain so. We should be a nation where law-abiding people can come to pursue the American dream, without having to wait a decade or more. Yet we must be able to control our borders in order to preserve our sovereignty, protect our communities, and defend our nation from those who would do us harm.

We must build a border wall to protect our southern border which is virtually porous. We must end chain migration as well as the dangerous visa lottery that imports potential terrorists from nations that hate us and want to do us harm. We must beef up our border security as well as crack down on violent gangs like MS-13. We need to turn off the financial incentive magnets that draw so many here with little to no risk to them financially. We must put American workers first, not bring in new people who drastically bring about wage suppression. Lastly, we need an E-Verify system that makes it easier to track who is coming in and out of our nation.

Protect our Right to Keep and Bear Arms

The Founding Fathers were very clear in their intent when they wrote the Second Amendment to the Constitution: the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed. They believed that all law-abiding American citizens had the right to own and maintain firearms in order to defend themselves and their families from those who would do them harm.

As a retired member of the United States Air Force and as a current Concealed Carry Weapons (CCW) permit holder, I take our fundamental rights very seriously. As your representative in Congress, you can depend on me to always fight to uphold your right to bear arms.

I do not support banning accessories, banning different types of weapons, or raising the age to own a firearm. All law-abiding adults in this nation have a right to defend themselves from attackers.

Defend Life, Our Values, and Religious Liberty

As did America’s founders, who recognized the right to life as a fundamental human freedom, I believe that every human life is worthy of respect and protection. In Congress, I will stand up for the sanctity of human life and fight to stop tax dollars from going to organizations that perform abortions. Planned Parenthood should receive zero tax dollars and is a destructive organization which should be prosecuted for crimes against humanity, the defenseless unborn.

I believe that the institution of marriage in its traditional definition of one man and one woman is one of the institutions that has kept the fabric of American society strong. I am committed to preserving traditional marriage, and to defending an individual’s right to conscience, religious institutions, and private organizations as enshrined in the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution.

I support overturning Roe vs. Wade and will do all I can to help this cause.

More Jobs, Fiscal Responsibility, and Economic Growth

I believe we can reduce the tax and regulatory burden on families and job providers as an important first step toward jump-starting our nation’s economy. Government doesn’t create jobs, but government can prevent jobs from being created. Big government has over-taxed and over-regulated our economy to such an extent that employment opportunities have largely been replaced with welfare realities. This isn’t the future we wanted for our children and grandchildren, and it’s time we turned things around.

So let’s get Congress and the federal government out of the way of real job growth. Let’s get politicians and special interests out of the way of real employment gains. If Washington wasn’t so worried about who was going to take credit for success, America’s economy would likely be moving more quickly than it is today.

Small businesses account for a large majority of America’s job base. My spouse and I have owned and operated a small business for 21 years. We sign the front of a paycheck and must balance a budget. The more government grows, the more it pushes small business out of the way. Only by balancing the budget, reducing the tax and regulatory burden on businesses, incentivizing innovation and capital reinvestment, and getting government bureaucrats out of America’s boardrooms will we be able to return our nation to the economic powerhouse we once were.

The Federal Reserve wields far too much power, manipulating the markets for the benefit of a select few. A handful of unelected, unaccountable “experts” have absolute control of our monetary policy, and Congress does little to provide effective oversight. Recurring bubbles, booms, and busts hurt everyday Americans, while insiders rake in massive profits. This is not how a free society should operate. Our Founding Fathers did not intend one entity to have the power to create, print, and lend money without accountability. When I get to Congress, I will work to rein in the Federal Reserve, starting with a comprehensive audit. I will also fight for sound fiscal policies, which will begin to pay down our massive national debt.

Finally, Repeal Obamacare, Unleash the Free Market

The simple fact is that Obamacare increases health care premiums on Arizona families, the exact opposite of its intended goal. It raises taxes on employers, which will ultimately cost Arizona jobs. And it included more than $700 billion in cuts to Medicare, which will deliver added woes to Arizona seniors already struggling to balance limited incomes with increasing medical costs.

In addition, Obamacare will likely cripple our existing health care system. These huge cuts to Medicaid are causing more doctors and more hospitals to limit or stop taking Medicaid patients altogether.

In Congress, I will work to repeal and defund Obamacare, and will join my colleagues to replace it with a common-sense alternative that increases access, reduces costs for all Americans, protects seniors, incentivizes innovation and the reduction of fraud and waste, and makes our nation’s health system more efficient. The new solution must be based on private-sector solutions, getting government out of the way, and opening up competition across state lines.

The American people deserve a health care system that promotes actual health, not one that places the IRS in charge of health policy mandates. For our seniors, children, and all Arizona families, we have a moral obligation to rise to this challenge.

It is time to unleash the free market, and we will be amazed at the options it produces.

Rebuild our Military and Take Care of our Veterans

America’s security is under constant threat. I believe we have a responsibility to maintain America’s military preparedness against all foreseeable threats. An aggressive China, a resurgent Russia, the proliferation of nuclear weapons from the former Soviet Union, rogue nations from the Middle East to the Korean Peninsula, and the rise of ISIS and other radical Islamic terrorists intent on killing innocent victims around the world are just a few of the potential security threats we must be ready to address without warning.

The brave soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines, coast guardsmen, Reserves, and National Guardsmen who protect our nation at home and abroad, each and every day, deserve our support – and they deserve better than they’ve received in recent years. Servicemen and women sent into harm’s way should be the best trained in the world, and the best equipped. When they return home from service, our veterans should be served by a swift and efficient Department of Veterans Affairs (VA). Today, however, our VA is backlogged with years of claims sitting unprocessed. The men and women who fought for our nation are treated with neglect by an inefficient bureaucracy, and this must end. As a 5th generation military officer, I am committed to preserving America’s armed forces and protecting our national security from all threats.

Get the Government out of Education, Empower Parents and Local Communities

There is no more important issue facing America today than the strength of our nation’s schools and the quality of the education our children are receiving. President Reagan said, “As a nation, we are dedicated to excellence in education. It makes a better life for our children as individuals, and it further secures the liberty we cherish.”

In Congress, my goal is to empower states, cities, school districts, and schools with the tools necessary to recapture education in America. All American citizens, be they children or adults, must be equipped to succeed in an increasingly global marketplace. Congress shouldn’t be dictating education policy but should be getting out of the way so that states, local government, and private organizations can take care of children. Local control of education has always been what spurred American education, innovation, and creativity to greatness.

I have long believed that parents, teachers and local school districts are the best ones to meet the educational needs of their students, if only we let them do their jobs. But for decades, Congress has failed students miserably. The federal government has set up a multi-billion dollar bureaucracy for schools and school districts to navigate, robbing billions and billions of dollars from the classroom, out of the hands of teachers, and as far away from students as possible. We must finalize the end of Common Core and return control back to the states and local governments.

The result of Congress’s failure in education policy has been declining test scores, fewer teachers entering the profession, bigger class sizes, a crumbling education infrastructure, and American students falling behind many of their counterparts around the world. We cannot continue to throw money at a broken system hoping a few extra dollars will change the results of policies that have never worked and never will. In Congress, I will work to get government out of the way so that the private sector, parents, and local school districts can take advantage of the ever involving educational landscape.

Cut Taxes and Red Tape

Each year, American families, individuals, and businesses spend over $330 billion just to comply with the federal tax code. For lawyers and accountants, not to mention the IRS, this is probably good business. But that’s one-third of a trillion dollars which citizens and businesses could be spending elsewhere – on research and development of new products and industries, on new technologies, on research grants and scholarships, just to name a few.

Additionally, the Obama/IRS scandal, which only seems to be growing increasingly broader and more out of control—leads me to echo the calls by a growing number of people who believe we have reached a point of no return. It’s time for the Tax Code and the IRS to go In its place, I believe we need tax massive tax cuts, and am so glad President Trump passed the largest tax cut in several decades. People are getting bonus checks, the stock market is climbing, and salaries are going up. Great progress!

I believe we need even more tax cuts. My principles on this are very simple. We need a tax structure that: 1. Simplifies the tax system. 2. Favors Americans first. 3. Reduces the overall tax burden. 4. Promotes economic growth instead of inhibits growth.

By eliminating as much as we can from today’s tax code, eliminating the IRS, and replacing our current system with one that puts all Americans on an even footing, we immediately end one of the most draconian federal agencies in history – and one which recently has proven it can be used for nefarious purposes – to harass and punish innocent American citizens and conservative organizations.

It is time to rein in taxes and government, as well as rein in the IRS.

Make America Energy Independent

America has great energy resources, but politics and radical special interests are preventing us from utilizing them. Meanwhile, we languish while importers remain reliant upon the whims of radical Islamic tyrants and Middle East despots who use their oil and gas supplies to dictate international politics.

Each year, America imports more than $400 billion in energy. We are stuck in a cycle of borrowing money from China to buy oil from Saudi Arabia and elsewhere. Wouldn’t it be better to spend those dollars here at home?

I am so glad President Trump approved the Keystone pipeline, opened up drilling in ANWR, and opened up offshore drilling. He is also scaling back massive crippling regulations that hurt our energy sector, which is creating a new economic boom. I will support the president while in Congress to further these efforts.

We must have clean coal and expand mining efforts all across the nation. This is good for energy prices and exports but is also good for American jobs.

The reality is, we can be doing much more to increase domestic energy production while safeguarding our environment, and increasing our own national and economic security. In Congress I will support the siting of new domestic oil refineries, investment into the latest advances in nuclear energy, and proper investment into solar and wind power.

Preserve our History and Culture

Our nation has a very proud and rich history. Liberal radicals and foreign interests are trying to reduce the impact America has had on the world. When our nation was founded in 1776, there was nothing like it. The very founding the United States of America spurred a global cause of freedom that impacted countless nations.

The fact that liberals want to erase Thomas Jefferson, George Washington, Christopher Columbus, and the 10 Ten Commandments from our national heritage is outrageous.


Tiffany Shedd

The section below was obtained from Shedd's 2018 campaign website.[8]

SECURING OUR BORDER

Tiffany Shedd lives and works on a cotton and wheat farm in Pinal County, Arizona. As a farmer with land about 90 miles north of the Mexico-Arizona line, Tiffany has witnessed first hand the consequences of the federal government’s failure to secure our border. It is a national security and human rights disaster, which is why she will work tirelessly with President Trump to stop the flow of drugs and criminals into our state. This means supporting a border wall, enhanced technology, more boots on the ground, and better systems to monitor who is in our country.

FIGHTING FOR OUR VETERANS

They have borne the ultimate sacrifice for our nation, yet when they come home, too many of our veterans are neglected, left behind and, tragically, never welcomed back into society. Injuries, both physical and psychological, go untreated. In rural Arizona, we feel this neglect even more. Long wait times, hours-long drives to VA facilities, and chronic mismanagement have many veterans feeling as though they have nowhere to turn. Tiffany believes this is unacceptable. She has a plan to introduce legislation that matches veterans with job opportunities that relate to their military training. Tiffany has already spoken with leaders in law enforcement, border patrol, and construction that have pledged support for this plan. Like President Trump, Tiffany is committed to going to bat for our veterans, and ensuring they receive the treatment, care, and opportunities they so desperately need and deserve.

BLESSINGS OF LIBERTY

One of the main purposes of our Constitution is to, “secure the blessings of liberty for ourselves and our posterity.” As a constitutional conservative Tiffany believes that we all must have the freedom to choose how we worship, how to educate our children, and the values that our families live by. As a homeschool mom, Tiffany makes sure that her kids are well versed in the Constitution and in the Christian roots on which our country was founded. Strongly pro-life Tiffany will always stand up for all of those who are unable to fight for themselves.

LIMITED GOVERNMENT

There are few sectors in our economy that feel the power of big government like those who produce from the land. Farming, ranching, mining, and forestry are the life blood of rural Arizona and are at the mercy of an out-of-control federal bureaucracy. Local community members actually create jobs, support charities, care about their children and their education, respect cultural traditions, and understand local and natural resources. Our Constitution delegates very few powers to the federal government, and Tiffany Shedd will work to limit federal power to its constitutional parameters.

HEALTH CARE

For Tiffany Shedd health care is a deeply personal issue. Ten years ago, her daughter, Summer, was diagnosed with type 1 diabetes. Like Tiffany, Summer is a fighter. She beat the odds and today is an energetic, fun, and smart young woman. It was through this experience of caring for a sick child that Tiffany fully came to realize the need for quality care that families can afford. Tiffany knows that we will not get the best quality care for our kids until we repeal ObamaCare and replace it with a patient centered and free enterprise based system that allows families to make the choices that best fit their needs.

2ND AMENDMENT

To Tiffany Shedd the 2nd amendment is more than just a talking point. She has raised her kids with a deep respect for firearms, safety, and self defense. Tiffany is an avid shooter and firearms enthusiast. She and her husband established the Central Arizona Target Shooting Range to promote youth shooting sports. Tiffany is a 4-H certified youth pistol instructor, and a NRA certified youth shotgun instructor. The 2nd Amendment is non-negotiable. Tiffany will never cast a vote or take action that in any way infringes upon our 2nd Amendment rights.


Steve Smith

The section below was obtained from Smith's 2018 campaign website.[5]

Jobs and the Economy

We know that government does not create jobs, but government can and should create policy to encourage job creation and economic growth. Arizona is now one of America’s most successful states when it comes to job creation thanks to many of the policies that Steve Smith has championed. Lower taxes, less regulation, an improved quality of life, and a stronger education system have all contributed to Arizona’s record of success. The news media loves to bash our great state, but the people of America vote with their feet, and Arizona is one of the fastest growing states in the country because of the many improvements we’ve made.

Taxes

Steve has pledged to oppose any increase in taxes and has sponsored and voted for legislation to lower personal and business taxes.

For his efforts, Steve was named ‘Champion of the Taxpayer' by the national fiscal watchdog group Americans for Prosperity, which is their highest designation.

Education

Steve comes from a family of teachers, so advancing education has always been vitally important to him. Steve opposes and has voted against Common Core because he believes local control of education is best and that more resources should be aimed at the classroom.

Steve has sponsored and supported legislation that has helped Arizona lead the nation in school choice and, as a member of the Senate Education committee, Steve authored and introduced the ‘Teachers Performance Pay bill’ in an effort to reward and compensate great teachers. Additionally, Steve has helped increase the K-12 education budget over the past 3 years to record levels.

Steve believes the most important tool to helping our children learn is the quality of the teacher at the head of the classroom, so rewarding great teachers is vital in order to ensure an outstanding education product.

Border Security and Illegal Immigration

Steve is known as one of the toughest fighters in all of Arizona in the effort to stop illegal immigration and to secure the border. This problem affects not only every Arizonan, but every American in that illegals take jobs from Americans, they cost taxpayers billions of dollars each year for healthcare, education, and other social services, and our open border has lead to a tidal wave of drugs, murderers, and gangs.

As the Vice Chairman of the Senate Border Security committee and as a member of the Joint Border Security Advisory Committee, Steve authored and introduced many pieces of legislation to help fix this problem, most notably SB1406, which allows Arizona to build its own border fence and do the job the federal government still has failed to do.

Life and Family Values

Steve routinely speaks to the importance of God, Family, and Country, when he campaigns, so it is no surprise that Steve is pro-life and a passionate defender of the most vulnerable in society. Steve also knows that government policies that attack or weaken families must be opposed because they weaken the fabric of this great country. That’s why he has a strong pro-family voting record and has won the Friend of the Family award every year he has been in office.

Gun Rights

The Second Amendment of the United States Constitution is amazingly simple and perfectly clear when it comes to gun rights:

"…the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed."

To reiterate, SHALL NOT BE INFRINGED! Steve has a 100% voting record in favor of Second Amendment rights, is A+ rated by the NRA and has been endorsed by the Arizona Citizens Defense League in his legislative races.

Native Americans/Rural

For the last 8 years I have worked closely with Arizona's tribes on economic, education, health care, and military issues and will continue to do all I can to maintain a great working partnership with them. I will represent everyone as your Congressman, just as I have in the State Legislature. That also applies to the unique needs that rural Arizona has. Too many politicians think that putting on a pair of cowboy boots for their campaign brochures is good enough. I have actually been a champion for rural Arizona at the state level and you can count on me to do the same at the federal level. I have championed legislation protecting water and property rights that are critical to rural interests, and I was even named Pinal County's Favorite Son for the work I have done on rural issues.

Healthcare

Obamacare has resulted in skyrocketing health insurance premiums and has given way to people losing their jobs or being relegated to part-time work. It has taken the “personal” component from the patient-doctor relationship and severely limited the overall supply of health care options available to consumers. I applaud this Congress for working to remove the crippling effects of the individual mandate; however, more work remains to be done. We need a full repeal of Obamacare. Congress must pass meaningful health care reform to expand Health Savings accounts, allow people to purchase insurance across state lines, and create a system that is more affordable and accessible.

National Debt/Spending

It’s important to note that I fully support a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution. One of the most dangerous threats we face as a country is our crippling national debt. We are not immune to the laws of financial prudence. Our national debt is currently over 21 trillion dollars, which breaks down to nearly 65,000 dollars per citizen. We cannot continue to live beyond our means, and hence, resort to kicking the can down the road while mortgaging our children’s future. We must be fiscally responsible while simultaneously emphasizing the importance of fully funding our military and efforts to fully secure the border.

Standing with Israel

Historically, the United States and Israel have enjoyed a sacred trust, and our destinies are forever entwined. As a result, we must continue to maintain our credibility by standing with Israel, President Netanyahu, and their unwavering commitment to the institutions of freedom and democracy. The biggest threat to Israel is Iran's ability to develop a nuclear weapon. We simply cannot allow this to happen. The establishment of long-lasting peace in the region is only possible through a strong US-Israeli relationship. The United States stands ready to initiate a military response to any adversarial foe that seeks to engage in warfare with the nation of Israel.

Limiting Washington's Power

I thoroughly believe in the Jeffersonian principle that government governs best which governs least, and furthermore, giving much of the power back to the States where it rightfully belongs. For the purposes of shrinking the size of the federal government, I’d propose eliminating the following as a bare minimum: the Internal Revenue Service, the Export/Import Bank, and the Renewable Fuel Standard, just to name a few.

In order to properly drain the swamp, we must commit to the endeavor of breaking apart the bloated bureaucracy of Washington.


Campaign strategies and tactics

Campaign advertisements

Wendy Rogers

Support

Courageous Conservatives PAC released the following ad in support of Wendy Rogers.

"AZ Conservative Lt. Col. Wendy Rogers" released July 31, 2018

Tiffany Shedd

"Deserves Better" released July 16, 2018
"Bicker" released August 20, 2018

Smith releases internal poll in response to pro-Rogers super PAC poll

On July 18, Smith tweeted an image of results from an internal poll (commissioned by his campaign) showing him with 27 percent support to Rogers' 23 percent and Shedd's 15 percent. The poll had a sample size of 393 and a margin of error of 4.6 percentage points.[13]

Smith framed the poll as a response to a poll released on July 11 that was commissioned by Defending Rural Arizona, a super PAC that expressed support for Wendy Rogers.[11] That poll showed Rogers with 22 percent, Shedd with 15 percent, and Smith with 10 percent (50 percent of respondents were undecided). The poll had a margin of error of 4.6 points and a sample size of 450.[14]

Democratic district won by Donald Trump

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Democrat and won by Donald Trump in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won in the 2016 presidential election.[15] Some were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.


2018 election results in Democratic-held U.S. House districts won by Donald Trump in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran D+7.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+2.5
Iowa's 2nd Democratic Party Dave Loebsack Democratic Party Dave Loebsack D+12.2 Trump+4.1 Obama+13.1
Illinois' 17th Democratic Party Cheri Bustos Democratic Party Cheri Bustos D+23.6 Trump+0.7 Obama+17.0
Minnesota's 1st Democratic Party Tim Walz Republican Party Jim Hagedorn R+0.4 Trump+14.9 Obama+1.4
Minnesota's 7th Democratic Party Collin Peterson Democratic Party Collin Peterson D+4.3 Trump+30.8 Romney+9.8
Minnesota's 8th Democratic Party Rick Nolan Republican Party Pete Stauber R+5.5 Trump+15.6 Obama+5.5
New Hampshire's 1st Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Democratic Party Chris Pappas D+11.7 Trump+1.6 Obama+1.6
New Jersey's 5th Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer D+11.7 Trump+1.1 Romney+3.1
Nevada's 3rd Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Democratic Party Susie Lee D+9.1 Trump+1.0 Obama+0.8
New York's 18th Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney Democratic Party Sean Patrick Maloney D+10.2 Trump+1.9 Obama+4.3
Pennsylvania's 8th Democratic Party Matt Cartwright[16] Democratic Party Matt Cartwright D+9.2 Trump+9.6 Obama+11.9
Pennsylvania's 14th Democratic Party Conor Lamb[17] Republican Party Guy Reschenthaler R+15.9 Trump+29.0 Romney+17.7
Wisconsin's 3rd Democratic Party Ron Kind Democratic Party Ron Kind D+19.4 Trump+4.5 Obama+11.0


Click here to see the 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Arizona's 1st Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Lean Democratic Lean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Likely Democratic Likely DemocraticLikely DemocraticLikely Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District election history

2016

General election

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngTom O'Halleran 50.7% 142,219
     Republican Paul Babeu 43.4% 121,745
     Green Ray Parrish 6% 16,746
Total Votes 280,710
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

Primary election

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngPaul Babeu 30.8% 19,533
Gary Kiehne 23.4% 14,854
Wendy Rogers 22.4% 14,222
Ken Bennett 16.7% 10,578
Shawn Redd 3.3% 2,098
David Gowan 3.3% 2,091
Total Votes 63,376
Source: Arizona Secretary of State
U.S. House, Arizona District 1 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngTom O'Halleran 58.8% 30,833
Miguel Olivas 41.2% 21,632
Total Votes 52,465
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick Incumbent 52.6% 97,391
     Republican Andy Tobin 47.4% 87,723
Total Votes 185,114
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

U.S. House, Arizona District 1 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngAnn Kirkpatrick 48.8% 122,774
     Republican Jonathon Paton 45.1% 113,594
     Libertarian Kim Allen 6.1% 15,227
Total Votes 251,595
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+2, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 2 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 1st Congressional District the 218th most Republican nationally.[18]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.05. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.05 points toward that party.[19]

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[20][21]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
 ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[22][23]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2016, 2012, and 2008," accessed May 17, 2018
  2. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces Initial Offensive Targets For The 2018 Cycle," February 8, 2017
  3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 Wendy Rogers, "Wendy Rogers on the Issues," accessed July 29, 2018
  4. ↑ 4.0 4.1 Wendy Rogers for U.S. Congress, "Endorsements, Ratings & Memberships," accessed August 6, 2018
  5. ↑ 5.0 5.1 Steve Smith 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed July 3, 2018
  6. ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Steve Smith 2018 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed June 19, 2018
  7. ↑ 7.0 7.1 7.2 Tiffany Shedd 2018 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed June 19, 2018
  8. ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 Tiffany Shedd 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed June 19, 2018
  9. ↑ Wendy Rogers, "Meet Wendy Rogers," accessed July 29, 2018
  10. ↑ Tiffany Shedd 2018 campaign website, "Meet Tiffany," accessed June 19, 2018
  11. ↑ 11.0 11.1 Facebook, "Defending Rural Arizona on July 14, 2018," accessed July 24, 2018
  12. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Arizona - House District 01," accessed August 22, 2018
  13. ↑ Twitter, "Senator Steve Smith on July 18, 2018," accessed July 29, 2018
  14. ↑ "NEW SURVEY: AZ01 Republican Primary," July 11, 2018
  15. ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  16. ↑ The new 8th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 17th District held by Cartwright. Click here to read more.
  17. ↑ The new 14th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 18th District Lamb won in a March 2018 special election. Tim Murphy (R) won the old 18th District in the 2016 election. Click here to read more.
  18. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  19. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  20. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  21. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  22. ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  23. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018


Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (5)


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