Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2016
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November 8, 2016 |
August 30, 2016 |
Martha McSally  |
Martha McSally |
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Cook Political Report: Likely R[1] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely R[2] Rothenberg & Gonzales: Safe R[3] |
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The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 8, 2016.
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Rep. Matt Heinz (D) and Ed Tilton Jr. (L write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heinz defeated Victoria Steele in the Democratic primary on August 30, 2016.[4][5][6][7][8]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: A primary election is an election in which registered voters select a candidate that they believe should be a political party's candidate for elected office to run in the general election. They are also used to choose convention delegates and party leaders. Primaries are state-level and local-level elections that take place prior to a general election. Arizona utilizes a semi-closed primary system. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[9][10][11]
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Martha McSally (R), who was first elected in 2014. She defeated incumbent Ron Barber in the country's closest U.S. House race.
The 2nd District is located in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and part of Pima County.[12]
Election results
General election
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Martha McSally Incumbent |
57% | 179,806 | |
| Democratic | Matt Heinz | 43% | 135,873 | |
| Total Votes | 315,679 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
Primary election
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
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Matt Heinz |
52.8% | 32,017 | ||
| Victoria Steele | 47.2% | 28,658 | ||
| Total Votes | 60,675 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State |
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Candidates
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General election candidates: Martha McSally   Matt Heinz Ed Tilton Jr. (Write-in) |
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Primary candidates:[13] |
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Democratic Matt Heinz - Former state rep.[15] |
Republican |
Race background
Incumbent Martha McSally was a member of the NRCC's Patriot Program. The program is designed to help raise money and assist vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election.[16]
Presidential preference
Martha McSally
In 2016, McSally expressed concerns about endorsing or voting for Donald Trump, noting that Trump's policies and statements made her hesitant to offer her support. On May 6, 2016, McSally said, "I just returned from Afghanistan to the recent political news and like many Republicans, am still trying to make sense of it all. We’re in unchartered waters with two presumptive nominees who are viewed unfavorably by the majority of Americans. More specifically I have concerns about statements Mr. Trump has made regarding women, but I also respect the will of the voters. So I’ll spend the next six months if needed, watching closely, learning more about him and determining what kind of man he is before I decide whether to give him my vote. We have serious issues ahead of us and I hope this election becomes more about a battle of ideas and solutions while making the case for who should be the next Commander in Chief in a dangerous world. Southern Arizonans elected me to do a job representing them, not because of my affiliation with any past or future presidential candidate, and I am all-in on doing that job. I have spent my whole life defying stereotypes and labeling and I'm going to continue to be that independent voice for Southern Arizonans regardless of who wins the White House.”[17]
Endorsements
Matt Heinz
For a full list of endorsements, click here
- Rep. Ruben Gallego - "Matt is running a strong campaign and is well positioned to win next year. As both a doctor and legislator, Matt distinguished himself as a public servant for Southern Arizona. As a member of Congress, I have no doubt Heinz will serve his district well."[18]
- Rep. Jared Polis[19]
Victoria Steele
Arizona state legislators[20]
- Rep. Eric Meyer
- Rep. Rebecca Rios
- Sen. Steve Farley – Senate Assistant Minority Leader
- Rep. Richard Andrade
- Rep. Reginald Bolding
- Rep. Mark Cardenas
- Rep. Jennifer Benally
- Rep. Ken Clark
- Rep. Diego Espinoza
- Rep. Charlene Fernandez
- Rep. Sally Ann Gonzales
- Rep. Jonathan Larkin
- Rep. Debbie McCune Davis
- Rep. Juan Mendez
- Rep. Albert Hale
- Rep. Andrew Sherwood
- Rep. Ceci Velasquez
- Former Rep. Raul Grijalva - "Victoria represents big goals and big ideas and this country needs both. I’m proud to endorse her. We are at her behest in terms of what we can do to help."[21]
Polls
| Arizona's 2nd District - Martha McSally vs. Matt Heinz | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Martha McSally |
Matt Heinz | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||||
| WPA Opinion Research September 14-15, 2016 | 56% | 37% | +/-4.9 | 400 | |||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Media
Matt Heinz
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Martha McSally
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Campaign contributions
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Martha McSally
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
Matt Heinz
Source: This graphic was generated using data from the FEC.
The finance data shown here comes from the disclosures required of candidates and parties. Depending on the election or state, this may not represent all the funds spent on their behalf. Satellite spending groups may or may not have expended funds related to the candidate or politician on whose page you are reading this disclaimer, and campaign finance data from elections may be incomplete. For elections to federal offices, complete data can be found at the FEC website. Click here for more on federal campaign finance law and here for more on state campaign finance law.
District history
2014
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the seat was held by a Democrat, but the district had roughly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans and was won by the Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2012. Incumbent Ron Barber faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Martha McSally triumphed over Chuck Wooten and Shelley Kais. Barber and McSally faced off in the general election on November 4, 2014, in a rematch of the 2012 general election. The election took over six weeks to decide, and McSally was crowned the winner following a mandatory recount that took place after the official canvass and certification of votes on December 1. In 2012, Barber narrowly defeated McSally by 0.8 percent of the vote.[22][23][24]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Martha McSally |
50% | 109,704 | |
| Democratic | Ron Barber Incumbent | 49.9% | 109,543 | |
| Write-in | Sampson U. Ramirez | 0% | 56 | |
| Write-in | Sydney Dudikoff | 0% | 48 | |
| Total Votes | 219,351 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
2012
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ron Barber Incumbent |
50.4% | 147,338 | |
| Republican | Martha McSally | 49.6% | 144,884 | |
| Libertarian | Anthony Powell | 0% | 57 | |
| Total Votes | 292,279 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Arizona elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Arizona in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| September 24, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary | |
| October 24, 2015 | Ballot access | Last day to file new party petitions for the presidential preference primary | |
| November 13, 2015 | Ballot access | First day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary | |
| December 14, 2015 | Ballot access | Last day to file as a candidate for the presidential preference primary | |
| January 1 to February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | January 31 report due (covering November 25, 2014, to December 31, 2015) | |
| March 3, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing new party petitions for the general election | |
| March 22, 2016 | Election date | Presidential preference primary | |
| May 2, 2016 | Ballot access | First day for filing candidate nomination petitions | |
| June 1, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for filing candidate nomination petitions | |
| June 1 to June 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | June 30 report due (covering January 1 to May 31, 2016) | |
| July 21, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the primary election | |
| August 19 to August 26, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due (covering June 1 to August 18, 2016) | |
| August 30, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 29, 2016 | Ballot access | Deadline for filing as a write-in candidate for the general election | |
| September 20 to September 29, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-primary report due (covering August 19 to September 19, 2016) | |
| October 28 to November 4, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-general report due (covering September 20 to October 27, 2016) | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| November 29 to December 8, 2016 | Campaign finance | Post-general report due (covering October 28 to November 28, 2016) | |
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State, "Elections Calendar & Upcoming Events," accessed June 5, 2015 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2016
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2016
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2016 House Race Ratings," accessed October 20, 2016
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 House," accessed October 20, 2016
- ↑ Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed October 20, 2016
- ↑ The Tucson Weekly, "It's Official: State Rep. Victoria Steele is Running for Congress & Hopes to Unseat McSally," July 7, 2015
- ↑ Azcentral, "Democrat joins race for Congress against Martha McSally," July 30, 2015
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed July 19, 2024
- ↑ Citizens Clean Elections Commission, "Primary Election," accessed July 19, 2024
- ↑ Arizona State Legislature, "Arizona Revised Statutes 16-467," accessed July 19 2024
- ↑ Arizona Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 7, 2012
- ↑ Candidates are listed by party and alphabetically within each party.
- ↑ The Tucson Weekly, "It's Official: State Rep. Victoria Steele is Running for Congress & Hopes to Unseat McSally," July 7, 2015
- ↑ Azcentral, "Democrat joins race for Congress against Martha McSally," July 30, 2015
- ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: NRCC Announces 12 Members in Patriot Program," February 13, 2015
- ↑ Tucson Weekly, "McSally Not Yet #ReadyForTrump," accessed May 11, 2016
- ↑ Twitter, "Dr. Matt Heinz," November 12, 2015
- ↑ 19.0 19.1 Matt Heinz for Arizona, "Endorsements," accessed August 9, 2016
- ↑ Victoria Steele for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed July 27, 2015
- ↑ Tucson Weekly, "Grijalva Endorses Steele in CD2 Dem Primary: "Victoria Represents Big Goals and Big Ideas"," February 16, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "2014 Arizona House Primaries Results," accessed August 27, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," accessed July 16, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Public Media, "UPDATE: McSally Wins Congressional Seat, Recount Confirms," December 17, 2014
For information about public policy issues in the 2016 elections, see: Public policy in the 2016 elections!
