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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 2
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
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| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District |
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| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: May 30, 2018 |
| Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Martha McSally (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic Inside Elections: Lean Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special) Arizona elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
Former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D) defeated Tucson Hispanic Chamber CEO Lea Marquez Peterson (R) in the general election on November 6, 2018, to represent Arizona's 2nd Congressional District. Incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R) was the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in the state and did not seek re-election.
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.
Arizona's 2nd was one of 25 Republican-held districts won by Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee identified this district as a target in 2018.[1][2]
Former Rep. Ron Barber (D), who represented the district from 2012 to 2014, said of the importance of this race, "The path to a Democratic majority in the House runs right through this district."[3]
The 2nd District is located in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and part of Pima County.[4]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Lea Marquez Peterson in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | 54.7 | 161,000 |
 | Lea Marquez Peterson (R) | 45.2 | 133,083 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 69 | ||
| Total votes: 294,152 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ann Kirkpatrick | 41.9 | 33,938 |
 | Matt Heinz | 29.6 | 23,992 | |
 | Mary Matiella | 9.4 | 7,606 | |
 | Bruce Wheeler | 8.4 | 6,814 | |
 | Billy Kovacs | 6.6 | 5,350 | |
 | Barbara Sherry | 2.6 | 2,074 | |
 | Yahya Yuksel | 1.6 | 1,319 | |
| Total votes: 81,093 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- William Foster (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Lea Marquez Peterson defeated Brandon Martin, Casey Welch, and Danny Morales in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Lea Marquez Peterson | 34.2 | 23,571 |
 | Brandon Martin | 28.7 | 19,809 | |
 | Casey Welch | 21.0 | 14,499 | |
 | Danny Morales | 16.1 | 11,135 | |
| Total votes: 69,014 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Marilyn Wiles (R)
Candidate profiles
Party: Democratic
Incumbent: No
Political office: U.S. House of Representatives (assumed office: 2013-2017, 2009-2011)
Biography: Kirkpatrick earned her bachelor’s degree and J.D. from the University of Arizona. She worked as a law clerk and the deputy Pima County attorney. She was elected to the Arizona House of Representatives in 2004 and the U.S. House of Representatives in 2008. She represented Arizona's 1st Congressional District for three terms.[5]
- Kirkpatrick emphasized her previous congressional experience. "It gives me the ability to go to Congress and build the kind of relationship with my colleagues regardless of party and get things done," Kirkpatrick said.[6][7]
- Kirkpatrick said she wanted to bring more bipartisan collaboration to Washington, D.C. "I'm proud I worked with both parties to reform the VA to improve care for veterans. We need more of that," she said.[7]
- Kirkpatrick identified herself as progressive in a campaign ad. She said she supported the following positions: supporting the Affordable Care Act, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and favoring stronger gun laws.[8]
Party: Republican
Incumbent: No
Political office: None
Biography: Marquez Peterson received a degree in marketing and entrepreneurship from the University of Arizona and an MBA from Pepperdine University. Peterson ran several businesses, including owning and operating a chain of gasoline stations and convenience stores and a business brokerage firm. She became the president and CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce in 2009.[9]
- Marquez Peterson highlighted her leadership roles outside of politics, including her work with the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce to promote economic development in southern Arizona.[9][10]
- Marquez Peterson said she would push for term limits and no budget-no paycheck rules for Congress.[6][9]
- Marquez Peterson said her four decades in the 2nd District gave her a better understanding of its needs. "I've been in southwest Arizona, and in tune with what's happening in the Second Congressional District. I think that's an advantage over Ms. Kirkpatrick," Marquez Peterson said.[6]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Poll sponsor | Kirkpatrick |
Marquez Peterson | Undecided/Other | Margin of error | Sample size | |||||||||||||
| Siena College September 26-October 1, 2018 | New York Times | 50% | 39% | 10% | +/-4.5 | 502 | |||||||||||||
| Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org. | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign finance
The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Kirkpatrick | Democratic Party | $4,591,985 | $4,519,793 | $72,191 | As of December 31, 2018 |
| Lea Marquez Peterson | Republican Party | $1,466,445 | $1,457,231 | $9,214 | As of December 31, 2018 |
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Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
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Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[11][12][13]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $448,000 on an ad campaign opposing Petersen Marquez in August and September 2018.[14]
- The National Republican Congressional Committee spent $227,000 on an ad campaign opposing Kirkpatrick in September 2018.[14]
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[15]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[16][17][18]
| Race ratings: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2018 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| October 30, 2018 | October 23, 2018 | October 16, 2018 | October 9, 2018 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | Tilt Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Lean Democratic | Lean Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 2nd Congressional District the 232nd most Republican nationally.[19]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[20]
Noteworthy endorsements
This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.
Campaign advertisements
Ann Kirkpatrick
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Lea Marquez Peterson
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Debates and forums
October 9, 2018, debate
Kirkpatrick and Marquez Peterson participated in a debate on October 9, 2018, hosted at the Tucson Jewish Community Center with journalists from the Arizona Daily Star, Arizona Public Media, the Arizona Republic, and KJZZ. The candidates discussed their ties to the district, the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, the Trump administration, and gun regulation, among other issues.[21]
- Find the Arizona Daily Star round-up of the debate here.
- Find the Arizona Public Media round-up of the debate here.
- Find the Tucson Weekly round-up of the debate here.
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Campaign themes
These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites, if available.
Ann Kirkpatrick
| “ |
Building Critical Infrastructure Arizona thrives when we have good roads, strong bridges and access to high-speed Internet. Investing in infrastructure creates good-paying and safe jobs, allows entrepreneurs to start new businesses, and puts our state on a path to the strong, stable economy we need. From working with local communities on key flood control projects in Pinal, Navajo and Coconino counties to finalizing historic water rights for the White Mountain Apache Tribe, Ann has been a forceful and effective advocate for Arizona’s infrastructure needs. Today Tucson is strategically positioned to attract jobs in logistics and trade due to the confluence of Union Pacific railways alongside Interstate highways (I-10 and I-19), proximity to Mexico’s deep water ports, and availability of developable land just six miles from downtown. Ann knows how to bring Arizona tax dollars home to use our fair share of investment to develop our economy. She secured millions of dollars in TIGER grants for transportation projects in rural and tribal communities, including $15 million for an overpass at State Route 347, one of the most dangerous rail crossings in Arizona. Investments in infrastructure are investments in American innovation and help to rebuild middle class. Arizona has widespread infrastructure needs, and Ann knows we can create thousands of jobs by getting folks to work on these projects. With smart, targeted investments, we can build the foundation for our long-term economic prosperity. Campaign Finance Reform Republicans and outside groups have spent $40 million against Ann over the past ten years. She has seen first-hand that the proliferation of money in politics, particularly following the Citizen’s United decision, has had a corrupting influence on all aspects of American politics. That’s why Ann supports the DISCLOSE Act to require reporting of all dark money spent in election’s and the Government By The People Act that would incentivize political campaigns that are funded by grassroots donors, not corporate PACs. Ann is also proud that nearly 100,000 people have given to her campaigns. She is committed to fighting the millions in dark money the Republicans will throw at her with the power of people. Creating a Fairer Economy Our financial system is rigged against working families – too many are working harder and harder for less. As a former prosecutor, Ann is horrified that to this day no one on Wall Street has gone to jail for causing the economic collapse. Eight years later, Wall Street has not been held accountable. Ann believes we need more financial cops on the Wall Street beat who can enforce the laws with real teeth. Congress should close the revolving door between Wall Street and its regulators. Those who perpetrated a fraud on the American public deserve serious jail time. Ann is also committed to ensuring all Americans, men and women, are guaranteed paid family leave in the workplace. As we build an economy that works for everyone, she believes families need paid time off to deal with births, deaths and illnesses that we all face. It’s simply wrong that only those with the financial means have the ability to properly deal with life’s ups and downs. Defending Medicare and Social Security Ann believes in the promise this nation has made to our seniors – that a lifetime of hard work will lead to economic security and access to health care in retirement. As our economy continues its long recovery after the Great Recession, more seniors than ever are counting on Social Security and Medicare. And after years of hard work, they have earned the peace of mind these programs provide. Ann has fought to protect Arizona’s families from attempts to privatize Social Security or turn Medicare into a voucher system. She opposed the Ryan Budget and criticized its harmful priorities. Ann also joined her colleagues in the successful fight to defeat the administration’s “chained CPI” proposal, which would have cut Social Security benefits, hurting seniors, veterans and working families. She also rejects privatization proposals that are described with code words such: personal accounts, partial privatization, options to invest benefits, partial investment of benefits, and the like. Ann will never go back on the promise of Social Security and Medicare. They are earned benefits, not entitlements. She will fight to protect these programs against privatization or efforts to end the Medicare guarantee. Ensuring Health Care for All Americans Ann believes in universal health care to ensure that all Americans have insurance so that they can get high-quality, affordable health care. Ann’s proudest vote in Congress was for the Affordable Care Act. She believes no one should have to make life-and-death medical decisions based on money. Although that vote cost her an election in 2010, she knew it was the right thing to do and will continue to fight reckless Republican efforts to repeal the ACA. The ACA has led to a large drop in Arizona’s and the country’s rate of uninsured people, allowing hundreds of thousands of Arizonans to get health insurance for the first time. It has ended abuses such as people being denied the coverage they’ve long paid for at the unfortunate time that they are diagnosed with cancer or other life-threatening diseases. The Act has also led to a huge decrease in uncompensated care by Arizona’s hospitals, which are now fiscally stronger. Our entire public health system has been strengthened, which is one reason that Arizona’s health sector has grown into the one of the strongest sectors of our economy. As a mother whose daughter experienced complications with the birth of her son, Ann knows how devastating it can be for a family with an unexpected medical problem. The anxiety of managing serious threats to a loved one’s health is only compounded by the bills that come along with them. Thankfully, Ann’s grandson is happy and healthy, and her daughter had health insurance to support the effort to care for her newborn. But too many families still lack coverage. Ann supports expanding the eligibility for individuals to buy into Medicare and believes it’s time for a public option, especially in counties where there is only one health insurance option available over the exchanges. Finally, she believes we must give Medicare the power to negotiate drug prices to reduce costs for our seniors. Equality' Ann has always been a vocal champion for equality and ensuring that all Americans enjoy equal rights, including members of the LGBTQ community. She co-sponsored the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) and applauded President Obama’s executive action on employment discrimination. Fiscal Responsibility Growing up in the White Mountains, Ann learned the value of a dollar from her father, who ran the general store. Those lessons stayed with her as she worked her way through college and law school and when she ran her own business. But too many politicians in Washington are addicted to spending – putting new programs, pet projects and even military action overseas on the credit card with no plan to pay it off. And when the bill comes due, the American people are left with extreme choices between more debt and shutting down the government. Governing from crisis to crisis, pushing problems off on future generations – that’s not how Ann’s father ran his store, and that’s not how we should run our country. Ann knows firsthand that the political fights in Washington are devastating to businesses here in Arizona. That’s why she believes that Congress should include “pay-for” measures in all spending bills, instead of kicking the can to the next generation. There are hard choices to make, and Arizona deserves leaders who can face these choices, work together and find solutions – just as families and businesses do every day. Honoring Our Veterans For years, Ann has kept a quote on her desk in Congress that was given to her by a veteran. It reads: “Because they have already paid the price, fight for veterans with all your might.” Ann has a record of unfailing support for veterans’ benefits and veterans’ programs that assist with job placement, health care and education. She has worked tirelessly to ensure that veterans get the care they have earned. Her bipartisan legislation, VA CORE, was signed into law to help reduce the VA claims backlog that has affected thousands of veterans across the nation. Ann was the first member of Congress to bring the allegations about the devastating scheduling practices at the Phoenix VA to the Inspector General, prompting an investigation of VA facilities nationwide. In the wake of that scandal, Ann served on the bipartisan House-Senate conference committee that crafted the most significant VA reform bill in years. The heroic sacrifices of our servicemen and women must be honored not only while they are serving in uniform but also long after they have returned home. This is a principle that Ann holds deeply — and she will continue to fight for our veterans each and every day. Immigration and Border Security Arizona has suffered for far too long from the failure of our leaders in Washington to fix our broken immigration system. Unfortunately, too many politicians are content to exploit this issue for political gain. Ann has consistently supported tough, fair and comprehensive immigration reform. She joins with Arizona’s business owners, educators, farmers, ranchers, and so many others in supporting comprehensive immigration reform that secures our border, keeps families together and addresses the needs of Arizona’s economy. As a former prosecutor, Ann has a long record of working to ensure border agents and law enforcement officials have the resources they need to combat cartels and traffickers. She worked to pass a $600 million border security package and successfully opposed cuts to federal funding that relieved the burden of border enforcement on Arizona. And Ann has been a consistent advocate for the DREAM Act, which offers a chance at the American dream to undocumented young people who were brought to this country as children and are now working hard, playing by the rules and helping to strengthen our communities. She supports policies that keep families together and rejects the Trump Administration’s agenda of building a wall and targeting productive working people for deportation. Ann has heard from countless Arizonans that addressing our broken immigration system is critical to Arizona’s economic future. Ann joins families across our state in calling for immigration reform that will keep families together, stimulate our economy and ensure border communities are safe and secure. Investing in Education Today, Arizona’s children are competing for jobs with the entire world – so they need a world-class education to prepare them for the 21st century economy. As a mother who sent her children to Arizona’s public schools and former teacher, Ann knows we must do more to recruit, train and retain high-quality teachers in our state – particularly in rural communities. And, just as important, we must put our teachers and students in a position to succeed by properly funding classrooms, training programs and other essential needs. Skyrocketing tuition has become a greater and greater burden on recent college graduates. This is holding back our economy and hurting the next generation of Arizonans. Ann is dedicated to reining in the cost of tuition and relieving the burden of student debt on Arizona families. Ann is also fighting back against government policies that hurt students and their families. She supports restoring funding for Arizona’s public universities, which have seen their budgets dismantled in recent years. Ann has fought against repeated attempts to cut Pell Grants, which play an important role in making the dream of a college degree a reality for thousands of Arizonans. She also supports free community college. A quality education is the birthright of every child, but our education system is failing our families. Our economy is changing, and so are the tools and training needed to succeed. More American’s must have access to affordable post-high school education choices, including four-year college, community college, and certificate programs, that train them for today’s jobs. Ann is committed to making the American education system the envy of the world by ensuring every child receives the education he or she deserves. Jobs for Arizona Ann’s economic approach is aimed toward a central goal: Get folks back to work in good-paying jobs. Middle-class families in Arizona were smashed by the recession –and they struggle to keep up with the rising cost of basic living expenses, gasoline, college education, and healthcare even today. Ann is committed to making Arizona home to a revived middle class by creating good-paying local jobs. And in order to do that, Ann wants to jumpstart the economy by supporting small businesses; keeping Arizona jobs in Arizona; fostering innovation; and making smart investments in education, infrastructure and job training. Ann knows the importance of international trade to our economy, but she opposes so-called “free trade” deals that outsource U.S. jobs and harm American workers. And since the global economy demands an educated and evolving workforce, Ann is a fierce proponent of job training and education programs to help workers find jobs in the 21st century economy. Our state also needs more good-paying jobs, and Ann is dedicated to creating an environment where new entrepreneurs and innovators can thrive. That means a tax code that fosters innovation, an end to unnecessary and burdensome regulations, and smart investments in education, infrastructure and job training. Ann played a leading role in advancing key infrastructure projects across Arizona, such as the proposed Interstate 11 through Pinal and Pima counties, flood control projects in Coconino, Navajo and Pinal counties, and road improvements on the Navajo Nation. She is pushing to bring access to high-speed Internet to all corners of Arizona, which would provide an immense boost to local economies and prepare our students for the jobs of the future. Ann knows that we need a Congresswoman who will bring home our fair share of federal tax revenues to support economic development in Southern Arizona, including the development of Tucson’s trade and logistics sector. Tucson’s access to rail, interstate highways and proximity to Mexico’s deep water ports makes it a natural location for these highly skilled, good-paying jobs. Arizona’s natural resources are critical to our state’s economic prosperity. That’s why Ann has worked tirelessly to bring government agencies, local officials, conservationists and other stakeholders to the table to finalize the Four Forest Restoration Initiative. The initiative will protect Arizona’s treasured forests, create jobs, and help our economy for years to come. Ann also co-sponsored the bipartisan Southeast Land Exchange and Conservation Act, which traded 2,400 acres of Forest Service land for 5,000 acres of privately held, environmentally sensitive land – and will create thousands of jobs in Arizona’s Copper Corridor. And Ann has fought back whenever bureaucrats in Washington impose burdensome regulations that would devastate our rural and tribal communities. For Ann, working for Arizona means fighting for an economy that ensures that all of our families have a chance to work hard and build a better life for their children. Protecting Our Natural Resources As the home of the Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, the Sonoran Desert and so much beautifully preserved wilderness, Arizona offers its residents a special connection to our environment. It is our duty to protect and preserve these places for our children and for generations to come. Arizona’s natural resources are also key economic engines – particularly in rural areas – and bring much-needed jobs to our state. Ann is committed to protecting our natural heritage. She worked to bring government agencies, local officials, conservationists and other public and private stakeholders to the table to finalize the Four Forest Restoration Initiative, which will protect Arizona’s treasured forest and create jobs. Ann believes we must fight global climate change and reduce our carbon footprint before it is too late. She strongly supports developing a wide range of alternative energy sources in Arizona to create 21st-century jobs and free America from its dependence on foreign oil. However, Ann has fought against the federal government’s harmful approach to Arizona’s land and water issues. Regulations drafted by bureaucrats who fail to understand our state would cost thousands of Arizonans their jobs, devastating rural and tribal communities. Instead, Ann believes the federal government must work in conjunction with local communities to protect Arizona jobs today and position our state to grow and thrive. Second Amendment Like a lot of Arizonans, Ann learned how to hunt from her father. Responsible gun ownership has always been a part of her heritage. Today, she remains a proud gun owner and strong supporter of the Second Amendment. As a former prosecutor, Ann also knows there are common-sense steps we can take to prevent gun violence and keep guns out of the hands of people who shouldn’t have them. Gun violence has torn our communities apart and Ann believes we must pass stronger laws to protect lives. Some people should not have access to guns, including criminals and the severely mentally ill. Ann has co-sponsored legislation to strengthen background checks, prevent guns from getting into the hands of those convicted of domestic violence, and end the ban on gun violence research. And Ann is fighting to close the Terror Gap to prevent those on the terrorist watch list from buying guns. Ann has also been endorsed by leading gun violence prevention advocates, Gabby Giffords and Mark Kelly. Supporting our Military and their Families Southern Arizona is home to the A-10 Squadron, the only plane in the U.S. Military capable of providing close-air support to our troops on the ground. The A-10 protects our troops when they are in combat. That’s why Ann has long been an advocate of protecting the A-10 program and strongly supported former Rep. Ron Barber’s successful 2014 effort to save the A-10’s funding. Ann believes we need protect the A-10 program until we develop a reliable replacement. She also supports investing in the next generation of military technology to defend our nation and ensure the safety of our troops – and that new technology should be based here in Southern Arizona at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base and Fort Huachuca Army Base. Those who serve our country put themselves in harm’s way to defend us all. Ann knows we have an obligation to ensure their families have good jobs, secure housing, access to an affordable education and the health care they deserve. She will continue to fight in Congress to fulfill our obligations to those who serve and the ones who love them. Women’s Health Ann is proudly pro-choice and has always been an advocate for ensuring all women have access to the health services they need. She will fight against Republican efforts to defund Planned Parenthood or weaken protections or access for women’s health insurance and services.[22] |
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| —Kirkpatrick for Congress[23] | ||
Lea Marquez Peterson
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ARIZONA JOBS Lea has always held the belief that the best way to help solve poverty is a growing economy with good paying jobs. As President & CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce, Lea has worked tirelessly to create jobs and attract new businesses to Southern Arizona. Lea knows firsthand that job creation is all about empowering businesses with the tools and training they need to succeed and getting government out of the way. In Congress, Lea will work to continue to fight for a strong pro-business environment and to help equip individuals with the skills needed to make a better future for themselves and their families. THE BORDER First and foremost, the border must be secure to protect our families by stopping the flow of both human traffickers and drugs across our border. The Border must be secured by any solution that makes sense – that means a wall, more border patrol officers and the use of technology. Lea believes that border security is also a humanitarian issue and we must do all that we can to stop horrible atrocities that are happening in the Southern Arizona desert that come with human trafficking and drug smuggling. At the same time, as a nation we need to continue to invest in our international ports of entry to ensure that we have efficient channels to increase commercial trade. HEALTHCARE As the CEO of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber, Lea has seen firsthand how the costs of healthcare have skyrocketed for workers and small businesses. Millions of Americans have been impacted by this flawed system that hasn’t worked for our families nor the insurance companies. In Arizona, we’ve lost our options as insurance companies have abandoned Obamacare — we all have a family member or close friend who have been impacted. Lea supports repealing and replacing Obamacare with a system that works — and that means those with pre-existing conditions need to be able to obtain quality healthcare at a fair price. TAXES & SPENDING For the sake of our economy, job growth, and future generations, Washington’s overspending and rising debt must be fixed. In 2017, our national debt exceeded $20 trillion–and it’s still growing! Lea was a supporter of Tax Reform and its positive impact on families across America as well as our small business community. Lea knows that we still have more to do and we have to get government spending under control in Washington. As a member of Congress, she will support a measure that will halt Congressional pay until a balanced budget is submitted. MILITARY & VETERANS American service members put their lives on the line to protect our freedom and security. They deserve the best training and equipment when they’re in the service and the best care when they’re done. Lea will always support our military and will work to pass legislation to help veterans return to civilian life, receive better treatment from the VA and the job training and resources to get good quality jobs. Lea understands it is also vital to support our Southern Arizona military infrastructure that accounts for over 5 billion dollars in economic activity to our region. She currently serves as a member of the DM50 and Southern Arizona Defense Alliance. Lea will be a passionate advocate in supporting this vital industry in Southern Arizona.[22] |
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Social media
Twitter accounts
Tweets by ann_kirkpatrick Tweets by LeaPeterson
Facebook accounts
Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.
Ann Kirkpatrick 
Lea Marquez Peterson
Timeline
- October 10, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee canceled its ad buy for Marquez Peterson covering the final two weeks of the race.[24]
- October 9, 2018: Kirkpatrick and Marquez Peterson debated in Tucson, where they discussed their ties to the district, the Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, the Trump administration, and gun regulation, among other issues.[21]
- October 1, 2018: In a New York Times and Siena College poll of 502 voters, Kirkpatrick led Marquez Peterson by 11 points, 50 percent to 39 percent. The margin of error was 4.5 points.
- September 12, 2018: The National Republican Congressional Committee released an ad featuring a clip of the late Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) criticizing Kirkpatrick's votes on taxes and federal spending.[25]
- September 7, 2018: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $111,000 on an ad campaign.[26]
- September 6, 2018: The Kirkpatrick campaign released an ad, "Together," that highlighted her parents' opposing political viewpoints and her support for bipartisan solutions.[27]
Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[28] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
District history
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Rep. Matt Heinz (D) and Ed Tilton Jr. (L write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heinz defeated Victoria Steele in the Democratic primary on August 30, 2016.[33][34][35][36][37]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Martha McSally Incumbent |
57% | 179,806 | |
| Democratic | Matt Heinz | 43% | 135,873 | |
| Total Votes | 315,679 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Matt Heinz |
52.8% | 32,017 | ||
| Victoria Steele | 47.2% | 28,658 | ||
| Total Votes | 60,675 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State |
||||
2014
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the seat was held by a Democrat, but the district had roughly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans and was won by the Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2012. Incumbent Ron Barber faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Martha McSally triumphed over Chuck Wooten and Shelley Kais. Barber and McSally faced off in the general election on November 4, 2014, in a rematch of the 2012 general election. The election took over six weeks to decide, and McSally was crowned the winner following a mandatory recount that took place after the official canvass and certification of votes on December 1. In 2012, Barber narrowly defeated McSally by 0.8 percent of the vote.[38][39][40]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Martha McSally |
50% | 109,704 | |
| Democratic | Ron Barber Incumbent | 49.9% | 109,543 | |
| Write-in | Sampson U. Ramirez | 0% | 56 | |
| Write-in | Sydney Dudikoff | 0% | 48 | |
| Total Votes | 219,351 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona.
- Republicans held five of the nine U.S. House seats in Arizona.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held 7 of 11 state executive positions. The remaining four positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of Arizona was Republican Doug Ducey. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.
2018 elections
- See also: Arizona elections, 2018
Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seats
- Nine U.S. House seats
- Governor
- Seven lower state executive positions
- 30 state Senate seats
- 60 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Arizona | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 6,817,565 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 113,594 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 78.4% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 4.2% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 3.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 30.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 86% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.5% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $50,255 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 21.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[41][42]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | Donald Trump |
48.7% | Hillary Clinton |
45.1% | 3.6% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
53.7% | Barack Obama |
44.6% | 9.1% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
53.6% | Barack Obama |
45.1% | 7.5% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
54.9% | John Kerry |
44.4% | 10.5% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
51.0% | Al Gore |
44.5% | 5.5% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | John McCain |
53.7% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
40.7% | 13.0% |
| 2012 | Jeff Flake |
49.2% | Richard Carmona |
46.2% | 3.0% |
| 2010 | John McCain |
58.9% | Rodney Glassman |
34.7% | 24.2% |
| 2006 | Jon Kyl |
53.3% | Jim Pederson |
43.5% | 9.8% |
| 2004 | John McCain |
76.7% | Stuart Starky |
20.6% | 56.1% |
| 2002 | Jon Kyl |
79.3% |  William Toel (I) |
7.8% | 7.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.
| Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Doug Ducey |
53.4% | Fred DuVal |
41.6% | 11.8% |
| 2010 | Jan Brewer |
54.3% | Terry Goddard |
42.4% | 12.1% |
| 2006 | Janet Napolitano |
62.6% | Len Munsil |
35.4% | 27.2% |
| 2002 | Janet Napolitano |
46.2% | Matt Salmon |
45.2% | 1.0%' |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 5 |
55.5% | 4 |
44.4% | R+1 |
| 2014 | 5 |
55.5% | 4 |
44.4% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 4 |
44.4% | 5 |
55.5% | D+1 |
| 2010 | 5 |
62.5% | 3 |
37.5% | R+2 |
| 2008 | 3 |
37.5% | 5 |
62.5% | D+2 |
| 2006 | 4 |
50% | 4 |
50% | Even |
| 2004 | 6 |
75% | 2 |
25% | R+4 |
| 2002 | 6 |
75% | 2 |
25% | R+4 |
| 2000 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.6% | R+4 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas • Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)
Footnotes
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue," accessed October 5, 2018
- ↑ GOP, "Young Guns 2018," accessed October 5, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats See New Opportunity in McSally’s Old House Seat," January 17, 2018
- ↑ Arizona Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 7, 2012
- ↑ Kirkpatrick for Congress, "About," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 Tucson News Now, "Candidates in 2nd Congressional District look to November," August 29, 2018
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 YouTube, "Ann Kirpatrick – Together," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Kirkpatrick for Congress, "Progressive Champion," August 13, 2018
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 Lea Marquez Peterson, "About," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ YouTube, "Lea Marquez Peterson – Not a Politician," August 6, 2018
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 FEC, "2018 House Independent Expenditure, State: Arizona, District: 02," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ 21.0 21.1 Arizona Daily Star, "Kirkpatrick and Marquez Peterson clash over issues at lone CD2 debate," October 10, 2018
- ↑ 22.0 22.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Kirkpatrick for Congress, "Issues," accessed September 17, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Yvonne Wingett Sanchez," October 10, 2018
- ↑ CNN, "McCain family calls GOP committee's use of his image in political attack ad 'unfortunate,'" September 12, 2018
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/6," September 6, 2018
- ↑ YouTube, "Kirkpatrick – Together," September 6, 2018
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The Tucson Weekly, "It's Official: State Rep. Victoria Steele is Running for Congress & Hopes to Unseat McSally," July 7, 2015
- ↑ Azcentral, "Democrat joins race for Congress against Martha McSally," July 30, 2015
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "2014 Arizona House Primaries Results," accessed August 27, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," accessed July 16, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Public Media, "UPDATE: McSally Wins Congressional Seat, Recount Confirms," December 17, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018
