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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 15
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 7
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
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| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: April 6, 2020 |
| Primary: August 4, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Ann Kirkpatrick (Democrat) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th Arizona elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 2nd Congressional District of Arizona, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Brandon Martin, Iman-Utopia Layjou Bah, and Brandon Schlass in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on November 3, 2020.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Kirkpatrick was first elected to the 2nd District in 2018 after previously representing Arizona's 1st Congressional District from 2009 to 2011 and 2013 to 2017.
As of 2020, partisan control of the 2nd District had flipped twice since its lines were redrawn following the 2010 census. Following redistricting, Ron Barber (D) won the election in 2012. Martha McSally (R) defeated Barber in 2014, receiving 50 percent of the vote to Barber's 49.9 percent. McSally was re-elected in 2016 with 57 percent of the vote and did not seek re-election in 2018. In 2018, Kirkpatrick faced Lea Marquez Peterson (R) in the general election for the open 2nd District, receiving 55 percent of the vote to Peterson's 45 percent.
The 2nd District is located in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise County and part of Pima County.[1]
For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Arizona's 2nd Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
| Democratic candidate |
54.5 | 55.1 |
| Republican candidate |
43.9 | 44.9 |
| Difference | 10.6 | 10.2 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Arizona modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Voter registration: Voters had until 5:00 p.m. on October 15, 2020, to register to vote.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Brandon Martin, Iman-Utopia Layjou Bah, and Brandon Schlass in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | 55.1 | 209,945 |
 | Brandon Martin (R) | 44.9 | 170,975 | |
 | Iman-Utopia Layjou Bah (Independent) (Write-in)  | 0.0 | 99 | |
| Brandon Schlass (Common Sense Moderate) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 35 | ||
| Total votes: 381,054 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Peter Quilter in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ann Kirkpatrick | 76.3 | 77,517 |
 | Peter Quilter | 23.7 | 24,035 | |
| Total votes: 101,552 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Nevin Kohler (D)
- Andres Portela (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Brandon Martin defeated Noran Ruden, Joseph Morgan, and Jordan Flayer in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Brandon Martin | 42.5 | 31,730 |
 | Noran Ruden | 33.6 | 25,049 | |
 | Joseph Morgan | 23.9 | 17,802 | |
| Jordan Flayer (Write-in) | 0.1 | 52 | ||
| Total votes: 74,633 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Mike Boyd (R)
- Justine Wadsack (R)
- Mike Ligon (R)
- Shay Stautz (R)
- Jason Bacon (R)
- James Schmidt (R)
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.
Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 30.1% | 68.2% | R+38.2 | 28.6% | 66.9% | R+38.3 | R |
| 2 | 57.2% | 41.6% | D+15.7 | 59.4% | 36.1% | D+23.2 | D |
| 3 | 70.0% | 28.1% | D+41.9 | 70.2% | 24.4% | D+45.8 | D |
| 4 | 54.3% | 44.2% | D+10.2 | 56.8% | 38.2% | D+18.7 | D |
| 5 | 28.1% | 70.0% | R+41.9 | 22.2% | 73.5% | R+51.3 | R |
| 6 | 42.2% | 55.6% | R+13.4 | 41.7% | 52.1% | R+10.4 | R |
| 7 | 63.2% | 35.4% | D+27.8 | 59.8% | 34.1% | D+25.7 | D |
| 8 | 44.7% | 53.5% | R+8.8 | 40.2% | 54.6% | R+14.4 | R |
| 9 | 53.4% | 44.9% | D+8.4 | 56.8% | 37.9% | D+18.9 | D |
| 10 | 51.8% | 46.5% | D+5.4 | 52.9% | 41.6% | D+11.4 | D |
| 11 | 39.7% | 59.0% | R+19.3 | 40.6% | 54.5% | R+13.9 | R |
| 12 | 32.5% | 65.9% | R+33.4 | 34.8% | 59.3% | R+24.5 | R |
| 13 | 33.5% | 65.1% | R+31.6 | 34.1% | 61.1% | R+27 | R |
| 14 | 35.7% | 62.5% | R+26.8 | 33.6% | 59.9% | R+26.2 | R |
| 15 | 36.4% | 61.9% | R+25.4 | 39.1% | 55.7% | R+16.6 | R |
| 16 | 35.0% | 63.1% | R+28.1 | 32.9% | 61.3% | R+28.4 | R |
| 17 | 42.1% | 56.2% | R+14.2 | 45.1% | 49.2% | R+4.1 | R |
| 18 | 48.1% | 50.0% | R+1.9 | 51.9% | 41.5% | D+10.4 | R |
| 19 | 66.4% | 32.1% | D+34.3 | 67.4% | 27.2% | D+40.3 | D |
| 20 | 42.4% | 55.3% | R+12.9 | 42.7% | 50.7% | R+8 | R |
| 21 | 40.6% | 58.0% | R+17.4 | 39.8% | 55.0% | R+15.2 | R |
| 22 | 33.4% | 65.4% | R+31.9 | 33.7% | 62.1% | R+28.4 | R |
| 23 | 35.9% | 62.9% | R+26.9 | 41.2% | 54.6% | R+13.3 | R |
| 24 | 63.2% | 34.4% | D+28.8 | 65.9% | 27.7% | D+38.3 | D |
| 25 | 33.1% | 65.1% | R+31.9 | 35.1% | 58.7% | R+23.6 | R |
| 26 | 58.3% | 38.5% | D+19.8 | 59.4% | 31.9% | D+27.5 | D |
| 27 | 75.2% | 23.2% | D+52 | 74.1% | 20.6% | D+53.5 | D |
| 28 | 44.6% | 53.6% | R+9 | 49.9% | 44.6% | D+5.3 | R |
| 29 | 64.7% | 33.6% | D+31.1 | 65.0% | 29.3% | D+35.7 | D |
| 30 | 61.3% | 36.7% | D+24.7 | 62.2% | 31.7% | D+30.5 | D |
| Total | 44.6% | 53.7% | R+9.1 | 45.5% | 49.0% | R+3.6 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 2nd Congressional District the 232nd most Republican nationally.[4]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[5]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ann Kirkpatrick | Democratic Party | $1,898,759 | $1,433,662 | $537,288 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Brandon Martin | Republican Party | $387,348 | $387,527 | $-179 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Brandon Schlass | Common Sense Moderate | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
| Iman-Utopia Layjou Bah | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Ann Kirkpatrick defeated Lea Marquez Peterson in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ann Kirkpatrick (D) | 54.7 | 161,000 |
 | Lea Marquez Peterson (R) | 45.2 | 133,083 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 69 | ||
| Total votes: 294,152 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
The following candidates ran in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Ann Kirkpatrick | 41.9 | 33,938 |
 | Matt Heinz | 29.6 | 23,992 | |
 | Mary Matiella | 9.4 | 7,606 | |
 | Bruce Wheeler | 8.4 | 6,814 | |
 | Billy Kovacs | 6.6 | 5,350 | |
 | Barbara Sherry | 2.6 | 2,074 | |
 | Yahya Yuksel | 1.6 | 1,319 | |
| Total votes: 81,093 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- William Foster (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Lea Marquez Peterson defeated Brandon Martin, Casey Welch, and Danny Morales in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Lea Marquez Peterson | 34.2 | 23,571 |
| Brandon Martin | 28.7 | 19,809 | |
 | Casey Welch | 21.0 | 14,499 | |
 | Danny Morales | 16.1 | 11,135 | |
| Total votes: 69,014 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Marilyn Wiles (R)
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Martha McSally (R) defeated former state Rep. Matt Heinz (D) and Ed Tilton Jr. (L write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Heinz defeated Victoria Steele in the Democratic primary on August 30, 2016.[12][13][14][15][16]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Martha McSally Incumbent |
57% | 179,806 | |
| Democratic | Matt Heinz | 43% | 135,873 | |
| Total Votes | 315,679 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Matt Heinz |
52.8% | 32,017 | ||
| Victoria Steele | 47.2% | 28,658 | ||
| Total Votes | 60,675 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State |
||||
2014
Arizona's 2nd Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014 due to the fact that the seat was held by a Democrat, but the district had roughly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans and was won by the Republican presidential candidate in 2008 and 2012. Incumbent Ron Barber faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Martha McSally triumphed over Chuck Wooten and Shelley Kais. Barber and McSally faced off in the general election on November 4, 2014, in a rematch of the 2012 general election. The election took over six weeks to decide, and McSally was crowned the winner following a mandatory recount that took place after the official canvass and certification of votes on December 1. In 2012, Barber narrowly defeated McSally by 0.8 percent of the vote.[17][18][19]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Martha McSally |
50% | 109,704 | |
| Democratic | Ron Barber Incumbent | 49.9% | 109,543 | |
| Write-in | Sampson U. Ramirez | 0% | 56 | |
| Write-in | Sydney Dudikoff | 0% | 48 | |
| Total Votes | 219,351 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Arizona Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 7, 2012
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ The Tucson Weekly, "It's Official: State Rep. Victoria Steele is Running for Congress & Hopes to Unseat McSally," July 7, 2015
- ↑ Azcentral, "Democrat joins race for Congress against Martha McSally," July 30, 2015
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "2014 Arizona House Primaries Results," accessed August 27, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," accessed July 16, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Public Media, "UPDATE: McSally Wins Congressional Seat, Recount Confirms," December 17, 2014
