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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)
- General election: Nov. 6
- Voter registration deadline: Oct. 9
- Early voting: Oct. 10 - Nov. 2
- Absentee voting deadline: Postmark Nov. 6
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 6:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
2020 →
← 2016
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| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: May 30, 2018 |
| Primary: August 28, 2018 General: November 6, 2018 Pre-election incumbent: Martha McSally (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona |
| Race ratings |
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic Inside Elections: Lean Democratic Sabato's Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018 |
| See also |
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special) Arizona elections, 2018 U.S. Congress elections, 2018 U.S. Senate elections, 2018 U.S. House elections, 2018 |
In the Republican primary for Arizona's 2nd District, five Republican candidates ran to replace incumbent Rep. Martha McSally (R). McSally announced a bid for the U.S. Senate.[1] The district is a swing seat; prior to McSally's election in 2014 it was held by Ron Barber (D) from 2012 to 2014.
Democrats have targeted the 2018 election for the 2nd Congressional seat as part of a route to gaining a majority in the U.S. House. Barber said of the district, "The path to a Democratic majority in the House runs right through this district."[2]
Tucson Hispanic Chamber CEO Lea Marquez Peterson led the field of candidates in funds raised at the end of March, reporting $502,000 in contributions. Her campaign priorities included job creation, securing the Mexican border, and repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.[3]
The next-highest amount of funds raised was $10,000 by Casey Welch. She ran on a campaign that included job creation, securing the Mexican border, and repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act.[4]
Candidates and election results
Lea Marquez Peterson defeated Brandon Martin, Casey Welch, and Danny Morales in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2 on August 28, 2018.
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 2
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Lea Marquez Peterson | 34.2 | 23,571 |
 | Brandon Martin | 28.7 | 19,809 | |
 | Casey Welch | 21.0 | 14,499 | |
 | Danny Morales | 16.1 | 11,135 | |
| Total votes: 69,014 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
 = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Marilyn Wiles (R)
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 2nd Congressional District the 232nd most Republican nationally.[5]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.94. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.94 points toward that party.[6]
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, Heinz vs. Peterson | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Matt Heinz | Lea Marquez Peterson | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling February 8-10, 2018 | 45% | 31% | +/-3.4 | 841 | |||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election, Kirkpatrick vs. Peterson | |||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Poll | Ann Kirkpatrick | Lea Marquez Peterson | Margin of Error | Sample Size | |||||||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling February 8-10, 2018 | 43% | 34% | +/-3.4 | 841 | |||||||||||||||
| Note: A "0%" finding means the candidate was not a part of the poll. The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org | |||||||||||||||||||
Campaign finance
The table below details campaign finance reports from candidates in this race who raised at least $10,000 as of March 31, 2018.[7]
Republican district won by Hillary Clinton
This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[8] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.
Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.
Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.
State overview
Partisan control
This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.
Congressional delegation
- Following the 2016 elections, Republicans held both U.S. Senate seats in Arizona.
- Republicans held five of the nine U.S. House seats in Arizona.
State executives
- As of September 2018, Republicans held 7 of 11 state executive positions. The remaining four positions were officially nonpartisan.
- The governor of Arizona was Republican Doug Ducey. The state held elections for governor and lieutenant governor on November 6, 2018.
State legislature
- Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.
Trifecta status
- Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.
2018 elections
- See also: Arizona elections, 2018
Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:
- One U.S. Senate seats
- Nine U.S. House seats
- Governor
- Seven lower state executive positions
- 30 state Senate seats
- 60 state House seats
Demographics
| Demographic data for Arizona | ||
|---|---|---|
| Arizona | U.S. | |
| Total population: | 6,817,565 | 316,515,021 |
| Land area (sq mi): | 113,594 | 3,531,905 |
| Race and ethnicity** | ||
| White: | 78.4% | 73.6% |
| Black/African American: | 4.2% | 12.6% |
| Asian: | 3% | 5.1% |
| Native American: | 4.4% | 0.8% |
| Pacific Islander: | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Two or more: | 3.2% | 3% |
| Hispanic/Latino: | 30.3% | 17.1% |
| Education | ||
| High school graduation rate: | 86% | 86.7% |
| College graduation rate: | 27.5% | 29.8% |
| Income | ||
| Median household income: | $50,255 | $53,889 |
| Persons below poverty level: | 21.2% | 11.3% |
| Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015) Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona. **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here. | ||
As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[13][14]
State election history
This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.
Historical elections
Presidential elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.
| Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 |  Donald Trump |
48.7% |  Hillary Clinton |
45.1% | 3.6% |
| 2012 | Mitt Romney |
53.7% | Barack Obama |
44.6% | 9.1% |
| 2008 | John McCain |
53.6% | Barack Obama |
45.1% | 7.5% |
| 2004 | George W. Bush |
54.9% | John Kerry |
44.4% | 10.5% |
| 2000 | George W. Bush |
51.0% | Al Gore |
44.5% | 5.5% |
U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.
| Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2016 | John McCain |
53.7% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
40.7% | 13.0% |
| 2012 | Jeff Flake |
49.2% | Richard Carmona |
46.2% | 3.0% |
| 2010 | John McCain |
58.9% | Rodney Glassman |
34.7% | 24.2% |
| 2006 | Jon Kyl |
53.3% | Jim Pederson |
43.5% | 9.8% |
| 2004 | John McCain |
76.7% | Stuart Starky |
20.6% | 56.1% |
| 2002 | Jon Kyl |
79.3% |  William Toel (I) |
7.8% | 7.8% |
Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016
This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.
| Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | First-place candidate | First-place candidate votes (%) | Second-place candidate | Second-place candidate votes (%) | Margin of victory (%) |
| 2014 | Doug Ducey |
53.4% | Fred DuVal |
41.6% | 11.8% |
| 2010 | Jan Brewer |
54.3% | Terry Goddard |
42.4% | 12.1% |
| 2006 | Janet Napolitano |
62.6% | Len Munsil |
35.4% | 27.2% |
| 2002 | Janet Napolitano |
46.2% | Matt Salmon |
45.2% | 1.0%' |
Congressional delegation, 2000-2016
This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.
| Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Republicans | Republicans (%) | Democrats | Democrats (%) | Balance of power |
| 2016 | 5 |
55.5% | 4 |
44.4% | R+1 |
| 2014 | 5 |
55.5% | 4 |
44.4% | R+1 |
| 2012 | 4 |
44.4% | 5 |
55.5% | D+1 |
| 2010 | 5 |
62.5% | 3 |
37.5% | R+2 |
| 2008 | 3 |
37.5% | 5 |
62.5% | D+2 |
| 2006 | 4 |
50% | 4 |
50% | Even |
| 2004 | 6 |
75% | 2 |
25% | R+4 |
| 2002 | 6 |
75% | 2 |
25% | R+4 |
| 2000 | 5 |
83.3% | 1 |
16.6% | R+4 |
Trifectas, 1992-2017
A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.
Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas • Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.
| Year | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 00 | 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Governor | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D | D | D | D | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | D | D | D |
| Senate | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | S | S | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
| House | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R | R |
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2018
- United States House elections in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primaries)
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2018
Footnotes
- ↑ USA Today, "Arizona Rep. Martha McSally announces she's running for Senate," January 12, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Democrats See New Opportunity in McSally’s Old House Seat," January 17, 2018
- ↑ Lea Marquez Peterson 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed May 29, 2018
- ↑ Lea Marquez Peterson 2018 campaign website, "Issues," accessed May 21, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Browse Candidates for House of Representatives," accessed May 21, 2018
- ↑ This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
- ↑ The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
- ↑ The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
- ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
- ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018
