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Arizona's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012
2014 →
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November 6, 2012 |
August 28, 2012 |
Ron Barber  |
Trent Franks  |
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The 2nd Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Ron Barber (D) won re-election in a race that was too close to call for one week after the election took place.[1][2]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Arizona's primary system is considered semi-closed. Unaffiliated voters may choose which party's primary they will vote in, but voters registered with a party can only vote in that party's primary.[3]
Voter registration: Voters were required to register to vote in the primary by July 30. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 9.[4]
- See also: Arizona elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Trent Franks (R), who was first elected in 2002.
This was the first election using district maps based on data from the 2010 Census. The 2nd District is located in the southeastern corner of Arizona and includes Cochise county and part of Pima county.[5]
Candidates
General election candidates
- Ron Barber
- Martha McSally
Anthony Powell (Write-in)
August 28, 2012, primary results
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- Note: Jesse Kelly withdrew from the race prior to the primary.[8]
Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ron Barber Incumbent |
50.4% | 147,338 | |
| Republican | Martha McSally | 49.6% | 144,884 | |
| Libertarian | Anthony Powell | 0% | 57 | |
| Total Votes | 292,279 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
Race background
Arizona's 2nd was considered to be a Tossup according to the New York Times race ratings. Incumbent Ron Barber won a special election earlier in the year to replace his former boss, Gabrielle Giffords, and after that the district became slightly more Democratic. Republican Jesse Kelly lost twice, once to Giffords and once to Barber, which helped cause party allegiance to shift to Martha McSally.[9]
Republican challenger Martha McSally was included in the National Republican Congressional Committee's Young Guns program. The program highlighted challengers who represented the GOP's best chances to pick up congressional seats in the general election.[10]
Arizona's Governor, Jan Brewer's super PAC, Jan PAC, spent money in each of Arizona's three most competitive races. In Arizona's 2nd, it spent $29,651 to support Republican challenger Martha McSally.[11]
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in Arizona
The 2nd District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[12][13]
- 8 percent from the 7th Congressional District
- 92 percent from the 8th Congressional District
Registration statistics
As of October 22, 2012, District 2 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the Arizona Secretary of State:
| Arizona Congressional District 2[14] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 2 | 373,460 | 125,254 | 131,832 | 116,374 | Republican | 5.25% | -45.80% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Arizona's 2nd District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[15]
- 2012: 46D / 54R
- 2010: 43D / 57R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Arizona's 2nd Congressional District has a PVI of R+2, which is the 220th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 50-50 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 50-50 percent over John Kerry (D).[16]
Campaign contributions
The race attracted $0.9 million in satellite spending between Labor Day and the end of October. Of that, $302,631 was spent helping Democrat Ron Barber while $573,703 was spent to aid Republican Martha McSally.[17]
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Ron Barber
| Ron Barber (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Special[18] | April 5, 2012 | $463,704.43 | $644,565.61 | $(717,728.50) | $390,541.54 | ||||
| Post-Special[19] | July 12, 2012 | $390,541.54 | $330,828.56 | $(528,843.90) | $192,526.20 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[20] | August 16, 2012 | $192,526.20 | $289,145.77 | $(104,539.62) | $377,132.35 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $1,264,539.94 | $(1,351,112.02) | ||||||||
Matt Heinz
| Matt Heinz (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[21] | April 19, 2012 | $0 | $102,030 | $(24,993.91) | $77,036.09 | ||||
| July Quarterly[22] | July 13, 2012 | $77,036.09 | $33,755 | $(68,527.41) | $42,263.68 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[23] | August 16, 2012 | $42,263.68 | $42,066.89 | $(85,421.17) | $−1,090.60 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $177,851.89 | $(178,942.49) | ||||||||
Jesse Kelly
| Jesse Kelly (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Special[24] | April 5, 2012 | $49,375.49 | $533,679.24 | $(499,762.35) | $83,292.38 | ||||
| Post-Special[25] | July 12, 2012 | $83,292.38 | $231,426.54 | $(295,282.55) | $19,436.37 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $765,105.78 | $(795,044.9) | ||||||||
Mark Koskiniemi
| Mark Koskiniemi (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Primary[26] | August 13, 2012 | $0 | $4,919.14 | $(4,827.88) | $91.26 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $4,919.14 | $(4,827.88) | ||||||||
Martha McSally
| Martha McSally (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| Pre-Special[27] | April 6, 2012 | $0 | $134,704.03 | $(90,043.07) | $44,660.96 | ||||
| July Quarterly[28] | July 13, 2012 | $44,660.96 | $269,810.24 | $(179,900.46) | $134,570.74 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[29] | August 16, 2012 | $134,570.74 | $47,032.93 | $(54,173.58) | $127,430.09 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $451,547.2 | $(324,117.11) | ||||||||
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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| Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
2010
On November 2, 2010, Trent Franks won re-election to the United States House. He defeated John Thrasher and Powell Gammill in the general election.[30]
| U.S. House, Arizona District 2 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Republican | Trent Franks Incumbent |
64.9% | 173,173 | |
| Democratic | John Thrasher | 31.1% | 82,891 | |
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 4.1% | 10,820 | |
| Total Votes | 266,884 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
Footnotes
- ↑ Seattle PI "Voters in Arizona's 2nd pick Barber over McSally," November 17, 2012
- ↑ ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
- ↑ Fair Vote, "Congressional and Presidential Primaries: Open, Closed, Semi-Closed, and 'Top Two,'" accessed January 2, 2014
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Important Dates," accessed June 29, 2012
- ↑ Arizona Redistricting, "Map" accessed July 7, 2012
- ↑ The Hill "Arizona lawmaker who replaced Giffords in state Senate to run for her House seat," February 13, 2012
- ↑ bensonnews-sun.com, "GOP candidates seeking nomination stands at five" February 15, 2012
- ↑ Arizona Daily Star, "Jesse Kelly third Republican to join CD8 race," February 3, 2012
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
- ↑ NRCC "Young Guns 2012"
- ↑ Bloomberg Businessweek, "Arizona’s Brewer Spends Super-PAC Cash for GOP House Candidates," October 25, 2012
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "Arizona's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "State of Arizona Registration Report," April 23, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arizona," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ The New York Times, "Outside Spending in Key House Races," October 25, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber Pre-Special," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber Post-Special," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber Pre-Primary," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Matt Heinz April Quarterly," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Matt Heinz July Quarterly," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Matt Heinz Pre-Primary," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jesse Kelly Pre-Special," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jesse Kelly Post-Special," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Mark Koskiniemi Pre-Primary," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally Pre-Special," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally July Quarterly," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally Pre-Primary," accessed August 23, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
