Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020

	2022 → ← 2018
Arizona's 3rd Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: April 6, 2020
	Primary: August 4, 2020; General: November 3, 2020; Pre-election incumbent:; Raul Grijalva (Democrat)
How to vote
	Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.; Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic; Inside Elections: Solid Democratic; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
	Arizona's 3rd Congressional District; 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th; Arizona elections, 2020; U.S. Congress elections, 2020; U.S. Senate elections, 2020; U.S. House elections, 2020; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 3rd Congressional District of Arizona, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva won election in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 3.

Candidate filing deadline	Primary election	General election
April 6, 2020	August 4, 2020	November 3, 2020

Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Raul Grijalva, who was first elected in 2002.

The 3rd District is located in the southern portion and southwestern corner of the state. All of Santa Cruz County and portions of Maricopa, Pima, Pinal, and Yuma counties are included in the district. ^[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Arizona's 3rd Congressional District, 2020
Race	Presidential	U.S. House
Democratic candidate	62.8	64.6
Republican candidate	35.7	35.4
Difference	27.1	29.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Arizona modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

Voter registration: Voters had until 5:00 p.m. on October 15, 2020, to register to vote.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva defeated Daniel Wood in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on November 3, 2020.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Raúl Grijalva (D)	64.6	174,243
	Daniel Wood (R)	35.4	95,594

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 269,837
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Incumbent Raúl Grijalva advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Raúl Grijalva	100.0	63,290

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 63,290
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3

Daniel Wood defeated Richard Jolley in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 3 on August 4, 2020.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Daniel Wood	99.8	29,272
	Submit photo	Richard Jolley (Write-in)	0.2	44

	There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source	Total votes: 29,316
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Steve Ronnebeck (R)

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[2]^[3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.

In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

2016 presidential results by state House district
District	Obama	Romney	2012 Margin	Clinton	Trump	2016 Margin	Party Control
1	30.1%	68.2%	R+38.2	28.6%	66.9%	R+38.3	R
2	57.2%	41.6%	D+15.7	59.4%	36.1%	D+23.2	D
3	70.0%	28.1%	D+41.9	70.2%	24.4%	D+45.8	D
4	54.3%	44.2%	D+10.2	56.8%	38.2%	D+18.7	D
5	28.1%	70.0%	R+41.9	22.2%	73.5%	R+51.3	R
6	42.2%	55.6%	R+13.4	41.7%	52.1%	R+10.4	R
7	63.2%	35.4%	D+27.8	59.8%	34.1%	D+25.7	D
8	44.7%	53.5%	R+8.8	40.2%	54.6%	R+14.4	R
9	53.4%	44.9%	D+8.4	56.8%	37.9%	D+18.9	D
10	51.8%	46.5%	D+5.4	52.9%	41.6%	D+11.4	D
11	39.7%	59.0%	R+19.3	40.6%	54.5%	R+13.9	R
12	32.5%	65.9%	R+33.4	34.8%	59.3%	R+24.5	R
13	33.5%	65.1%	R+31.6	34.1%	61.1%	R+27	R
14	35.7%	62.5%	R+26.8	33.6%	59.9%	R+26.2	R
15	36.4%	61.9%	R+25.4	39.1%	55.7%	R+16.6	R
16	35.0%	63.1%	R+28.1	32.9%	61.3%	R+28.4	R
17	42.1%	56.2%	R+14.2	45.1%	49.2%	R+4.1	R
18	48.1%	50.0%	R+1.9	51.9%	41.5%	D+10.4	R
19	66.4%	32.1%	D+34.3	67.4%	27.2%	D+40.3	D
20	42.4%	55.3%	R+12.9	42.7%	50.7%	R+8	R
21	40.6%	58.0%	R+17.4	39.8%	55.0%	R+15.2	R
22	33.4%	65.4%	R+31.9	33.7%	62.1%	R+28.4	R
23	35.9%	62.9%	R+26.9	41.2%	54.6%	R+13.3	R
24	63.2%	34.4%	D+28.8	65.9%	27.7%	D+38.3	D
25	33.1%	65.1%	R+31.9	35.1%	58.7%	R+23.6	R
26	58.3%	38.5%	D+19.8	59.4%	31.9%	D+27.5	D
27	75.2%	23.2%	D+52	74.1%	20.6%	D+53.5	D
28	44.6%	53.6%	R+9	49.9%	44.6%	D+5.3	R
29	64.7%	33.6%	D+31.1	65.0%	29.3%	D+35.7	D
30	61.3%	36.7%	D+24.7	62.2%	31.7%	D+30.5	D
Total	44.6%	53.7%	R+9.1	45.5%	49.0%	R+3.6	-
Source: Daily Kos

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index

See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Arizona's 3rd Congressional District the 106th most Democratic nationally.^[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.^[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.^[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.^[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name

Party

Receipts*

Disbursements**

Cash on hand

Date

Raúl Grijalva

Democratic Party

$879,341

$691,288

$226,209

As of December 31, 2020

Daniel Wood

Republican Party

$41,942

$42,481

$-539

As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[8]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[9]^[10]^[11]

Race ratings: Arizona's 3rd Congressional District election, 2020
Race tracker	Race ratings
	November 3, 2020	October 27, 2020	October 20, 2020	October 13, 2020
The Cook Political Report	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic	Solid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic	Safe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history