Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2020
- Election date: Nov. 3
- Registration deadline(s): Oct. 15
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: No
- Recount laws
- Early voting starts: Oct. 7
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): Nov. 3 (received)
- Processing, counting, and challenging absentee/mail-in ballots
- Voter ID: Non-photo ID
- Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
2022 →
← 2018
|
| Arizona's 8th Congressional District |
|---|
 |
| Democratic primary Republican primary General election |
| Election details |
| Filing deadline: April 6, 2020 |
| Primary: August 4, 2020 General: November 3, 2020 Pre-election incumbent: Debbie Lesko (Republican) |
| How to vote |
| Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Voting in Arizona |
| Race ratings |
Inside Elections: Solid Republican Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican |
| Ballotpedia analysis |
| U.S. Senate battlegrounds U.S. House battlegrounds Federal and state primary competitiveness Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020 |
| See also |
1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th Arizona elections, 2020 U.S. Congress elections, 2020 U.S. Senate elections, 2020 U.S. House elections, 2020 |
All U.S. congressional districts, including the 8th Congressional District of Arizona, held elections in 2020.
Incumbent Debbie Lesko won election in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 8.
| Candidate filing deadline | Primary election | General election |
|---|---|---|
Heading into the election the incumbent was Republican Debbie Lesko, who was first elected in 2018.
As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, the 8th District was one of five primarily urban districts centered around Phoenix, Arizona.[1]
Post-election analysis
The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.
| Presidential and congressional election results, Arizona's 8th Congressional District, 2020 | ||
|---|---|---|
| Race | Presidential | U.S. House |
Democratic candidate  |
41.4 | 40.4 |
Republican candidate  |
57.3 | 59.6 |
| Difference | 15.9 | 19.2 |
Election procedure changes in 2020
Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.
Arizona modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:
- Voter registration: Voters had until 5:00 p.m. on October 15, 2020, to register to vote.
For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.
Candidates and election results
General election
General election for U.S. House Arizona District 8
Incumbent Debbie Lesko defeated Michael Muscato and Taliban Hendrix in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on November 3, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ |  | Debbie Lesko (R) | 59.6 | 251,633 |
 | Michael Muscato (D)  | 40.4 | 170,816 | |
| Taliban Hendrix (Independent) (Write-in) | 0.0 | 18 | ||
| Total votes: 422,467 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Ryan Risselman (R)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8
Michael Muscato defeated Bob Olsen, Bob Musselwhite, and Kyle Martin in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Michael Muscato | 54.4 | 35,923 |
 | Bob Olsen | 31.1 | 20,547 | |
 | Bob Musselwhite | 14.5 | 9,578 | |
| Kyle Martin (Write-in) | 0.1 | 45 | ||
| Total votes: 66,093 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8
Incumbent Debbie Lesko advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on August 4, 2020.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Debbie Lesko | 100.0 | 105,758 |
| Total votes: 105,758 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Jimmy Rodriguez (R)
Pivot Counties
- See also: Pivot Counties by state
Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.
Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.
Presidential results by legislative district
The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]
| In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections. |
| In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points. |
| 2016 presidential results by state House district | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Obama | Romney | 2012 Margin | Clinton | Trump | 2016 Margin | Party Control |
| 1 | 30.1% | 68.2% | R+38.2 | 28.6% | 66.9% | R+38.3 | R |
| 2 | 57.2% | 41.6% | D+15.7 | 59.4% | 36.1% | D+23.2 | D |
| 3 | 70.0% | 28.1% | D+41.9 | 70.2% | 24.4% | D+45.8 | D |
| 4 | 54.3% | 44.2% | D+10.2 | 56.8% | 38.2% | D+18.7 | D |
| 5 | 28.1% | 70.0% | R+41.9 | 22.2% | 73.5% | R+51.3 | R |
| 6 | 42.2% | 55.6% | R+13.4 | 41.7% | 52.1% | R+10.4 | R |
| 7 | 63.2% | 35.4% | D+27.8 | 59.8% | 34.1% | D+25.7 | D |
| 8 | 44.7% | 53.5% | R+8.8 | 40.2% | 54.6% | R+14.4 | R |
| 9 | 53.4% | 44.9% | D+8.4 | 56.8% | 37.9% | D+18.9 | D |
| 10 | 51.8% | 46.5% | D+5.4 | 52.9% | 41.6% | D+11.4 | D |
| 11 | 39.7% | 59.0% | R+19.3 | 40.6% | 54.5% | R+13.9 | R |
| 12 | 32.5% | 65.9% | R+33.4 | 34.8% | 59.3% | R+24.5 | R |
| 13 | 33.5% | 65.1% | R+31.6 | 34.1% | 61.1% | R+27 | R |
| 14 | 35.7% | 62.5% | R+26.8 | 33.6% | 59.9% | R+26.2 | R |
| 15 | 36.4% | 61.9% | R+25.4 | 39.1% | 55.7% | R+16.6 | R |
| 16 | 35.0% | 63.1% | R+28.1 | 32.9% | 61.3% | R+28.4 | R |
| 17 | 42.1% | 56.2% | R+14.2 | 45.1% | 49.2% | R+4.1 | R |
| 18 | 48.1% | 50.0% | R+1.9 | 51.9% | 41.5% | D+10.4 | R |
| 19 | 66.4% | 32.1% | D+34.3 | 67.4% | 27.2% | D+40.3 | D |
| 20 | 42.4% | 55.3% | R+12.9 | 42.7% | 50.7% | R+8 | R |
| 21 | 40.6% | 58.0% | R+17.4 | 39.8% | 55.0% | R+15.2 | R |
| 22 | 33.4% | 65.4% | R+31.9 | 33.7% | 62.1% | R+28.4 | R |
| 23 | 35.9% | 62.9% | R+26.9 | 41.2% | 54.6% | R+13.3 | R |
| 24 | 63.2% | 34.4% | D+28.8 | 65.9% | 27.7% | D+38.3 | D |
| 25 | 33.1% | 65.1% | R+31.9 | 35.1% | 58.7% | R+23.6 | R |
| 26 | 58.3% | 38.5% | D+19.8 | 59.4% | 31.9% | D+27.5 | D |
| 27 | 75.2% | 23.2% | D+52 | 74.1% | 20.6% | D+53.5 | D |
| 28 | 44.6% | 53.6% | R+9 | 49.9% | 44.6% | D+5.3 | R |
| 29 | 64.7% | 33.6% | D+31.1 | 65.0% | 29.3% | D+35.7 | D |
| 30 | 61.3% | 36.7% | D+24.7 | 62.2% | 31.7% | D+30.5 | D |
| Total | 44.6% | 53.7% | R+9.1 | 45.5% | 49.0% | R+3.6 | - |
| Source: Daily Kos | |||||||
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was R+13, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 13 percentage points more Republican than the national average. This made Arizona's 8th Congressional District the 96th most Republican nationally.[4]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.01. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.01 points toward that party.[5]
Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
| Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debbie Lesko | Republican Party | $1,614,574 | $996,782 | $688,633 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Michael Muscato | Democratic Party | $409,501 | $399,329 | $10,172 | As of December 31, 2020 |
| Taliban Hendrix | Independent | $0 | $0 | $0 | Data not available*** |
|
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
|||||
Race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]
| Race ratings: Arizona's 8th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
| November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
| The Cook Political Report | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | Solid Republican | |||||
| Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | Safe Republican | |||||
| Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. | |||||||||
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House Arizona District 8
Incumbent Debbie Lesko defeated Hiral Tipirneni in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Debbie Lesko (R) | 55.5 | 168,835 |
 | Hiral Tipirneni (D) | 44.5 | 135,569 | |
| Other/Write-in votes | 0.0 | 13 | ||
| Total votes: 304,417 (100.00% precincts reporting) | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Augie Beyer (Independent)
Democratic primary election
Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8
Hiral Tipirneni advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Hiral Tipirneni | 100.0 | 52,215 |
| Total votes: 52,215 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Bob Musselwhite (D)
- Brianna Westbrook (D)
- Bob Olsen (D)
Republican primary election
Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8
Incumbent Debbie Lesko defeated Sandra Dowling in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 8 on August 28, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
| ✔ | | Debbie Lesko | 77.2 | 73,776 |
 | Sandra Dowling | 22.8 | 21,825 | |
| Total votes: 95,601 | |||
| = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey. | ||||
| If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. | ||||
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Republican. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Mark Salazar (G) and write-in candidate Joe DeVivo (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Franks defeated Clair Van Steenwyk in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[12][13][14]
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Trent Franks Incumbent |
68.5% | 204,942 | |
| Green | Mark Salazar | 31.4% | 93,954 | |
| N/A | Write-in | 0% | 75 | |
| Total Votes | 298,971 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Trent Franks Incumbent |
71.1% | 59,042 | ||
| Clair Van Steenwyk | 28.9% | 24,042 | ||
| Total Votes | 83,084 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State |
||||
2014
The 8th Congressional District of Arizona held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Trent Franks (R) defeated Stephen Dolgos (Americans Elect) in the general election.
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks Incumbent |
75.8% | 128,710 | |
| Americans Elect | Stephen Dolgos | 24.2% | 41,066 | |
| Total Votes | 169,776 | |||
| Source: Arizona Secretary of State | ||||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Arizona Redistricting, "Map," accessed July 7, 2012
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
- ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2016 Primary Candidates," accessed June 2, 2016
- ↑ Politico, " Arizona House Primaries Results," August 30, 2016
- ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 8, 2016
