Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2020

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2022
2018
Arizona's 9th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: April 6, 2020
Primary: August 4, 2020
General: November 3, 2020

Pre-election incumbent:
Greg Stanton (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
See also
Arizona's 9th Congressional District
1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th
Arizona elections, 2020
U.S. Congress elections, 2020
U.S. Senate elections, 2020
U.S. House elections, 2020

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 9th Congressional District of Arizona, held elections in 2020.

Incumbent Greg Stanton won election in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 9.

Candidate filing deadline Primary election General election
April 6, 2020
August 4, 2020
November 3, 2020


Heading into the election the incumbent was Democrat Greg Stanton, who was first elected in 2018.

As of the 2010 redistricting cycle, the 9th District was based in Tempe, Arizona, and was one of five primarily urban districts centered around Phoenix, Arizona.[1]

Post-election analysis

The table below compares the vote totals in the 2020 presidential election and 2020 U.S. House election for this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

Presidential and congressional election results, Arizona's 9th Congressional District, 2020
Race Presidential U.S. House
Democratic candidate Democratic Party 60.8 61.6
Republican candidate Republican Party 37.3 38.4
Difference 23.5 23.2

Election procedure changes in 2020

See also: Changes to election dates, procedures, and administration in response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, 2020

Ballotpedia provided comprehensive coverage of how election dates and procedures changed in 2020. While the majority of changes occurred as a result of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, some changes occurred for other reasons.

Arizona modified its voter registration procedures for the November 3, 2020, general election as follows:

  • Voter registration: Voters had until 5:00 p.m. on October 15, 2020, to register to vote.

For a full timeline about election modifications made in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Incumbent Greg Stanton defeated Dave Giles in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on November 3, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Stanton
Greg Stanton (D)
 
61.6
 
217,094
Image of Dave Giles
Dave Giles (R) Candidate Connection
 
38.4
 
135,180

Total votes: 352,274
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Incumbent Greg Stanton advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Stanton
Greg Stanton
 
100.0
 
83,508

Total votes: 83,508
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Dave Giles defeated Sam Huang and Nicholas Tutora in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on August 4, 2020.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Dave Giles
Dave Giles Candidate Connection
 
53.7
 
28,488
Image of Sam Huang
Sam Huang
 
23.6
 
12,532
Image of Nicholas Tutora
Nicholas Tutora
 
22.7
 
12,059

Total votes: 53,079
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[2][3]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Arizona's 9th Congressional District the 177th most Democratic nationally.[4]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[5]

Campaign finance

This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[6] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[7] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Greg Stanton Democratic Party $2,020,240 $1,019,971 $1,044,655 As of December 31, 2020
Dave Giles Republican Party $130,480 $129,935 $546 As of December 31, 2020

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[8]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[9][10][11]

Race ratings: Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2020
Race trackerRace ratings
November 3, 2020October 27, 2020October 20, 2020October 13, 2020
The Cook Political ReportSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season.

District election history

2018

See also: Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2018

General election

General election for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Greg Stanton defeated Steve Ferrara in the general election for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Stanton
Greg Stanton (D)
 
61.1
 
159,583
Image of Steve Ferrara
Steve Ferrara (R)
 
38.9
 
101,662

Total votes: 261,245
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Greg Stanton advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Greg Stanton
Greg Stanton
 
100.0
 
59,066

Total votes: 59,066
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Steve Ferrara defeated Dave Giles and Irina Baroness Von Behr in the Republican primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of Steve Ferrara
Steve Ferrara
 
59.9
 
31,006
Image of Dave Giles
Dave Giles Candidate Connection
 
32.3
 
16,722
Image of Irina Baroness Von Behr
Irina Baroness Von Behr
 
7.8
 
4,020

Total votes: 51,748
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Libertarian primary election

No Libertarian candidates ran in the primary.

Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

2016

See also: Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent Kyrsten Sinema (D) defeated Dave Giles (R) and Mike Shipley (L write-in) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Giles defeated John Agra in the Republican primary on August 30, 2016.[12][13][14]

U.S. House, Arizona District 9 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKyrsten Sinema Incumbent 60.9% 169,055
     Republican Dave Giles 39% 108,350
     N/A Write-in 0% 102
Total Votes 277,507
Source: Arizona Secretary of State


U.S. House, Arizona District 9 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDave Giles 60.7% 25,963
John Agra 39.3% 16,817
Total Votes 42,780
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

See also: Arizona's 9th Congressional District elections, 2014


U.S. House, Arizona District 9 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKyrsten Sinema Incumbent 54.7% 88,609
     Republican Wendy Rogers 41.9% 67,841
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 3.5% 5,612
Total Votes 162,062
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

See also

External links

Footnotes


Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)