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Arizona's 9th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Democratic primary)

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Arizona's 9th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 30, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
Kyrsten Sinema (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Arizona
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+4
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Arizona's 9th Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th • 6th • 7th • 8th • 9th • 8th (special)
Arizona elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Former Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton ran unopposed in the Democratic primary for Arizona's 9th Congressional District for this Democratic-leaning seat that became open when incumbent Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) announced her run for U.S. Senate.[1]

Tech startup founder Talia Fuentes previously declared for the race but withdrew before the primary.

Stanton was endorsed by End Citizens United, Giffords PAC, and the Human Rights Campaign, while Fuentes received support from Political Revolution, an outgrowth of the Sanders 2016 presidential campaign.

Sinema, first elected in 2012, was the only representative to have held the District 9 seat prior to the 2018 election. The district was first created as a result of the 2010 census.[2]



Election results

Greg Stanton advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9 on August 28, 2018.

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Arizona District 9

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of Greg Stanton
Greg Stanton
 
100.0
 
59,066

There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 59,066
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Candidates

Top candidate

Greg Stanton

Greg Stanton1.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Stanton was the mayor of Phoenix from 2011 to 2018. He resigned on May 29, 2018, so he could run for the U.S. House. Prior to that, he represented District 6 on the Phoenix City Council from 2000 to 2009.

Stanton earned his B.A. in political science and history from Marquette University and his J.D. from the University of Michigan Law School. His professional experience includes working as a deputy attorney general and as an education attorney.[3]

Stanton's campaigning focused on his work as mayor. He spoke about job creation, investing in biosciences, and the city's light rail system, which was extended during his time in office.[4]

List of all candidates

See also: Statistics on U.S. Congress candidates, 2018

Democratic Party Democratic primary candidates


Did not make the ballot:

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+4, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 4 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Arizona's 9th Congressional District the 177th most Democratic nationally.[5]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.95. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.95 points toward that party.[6]

Endorsements

Democratic primary endorsements
Endorsement Talia Fuentes Greg Stanton
Organizations
End Citizens United[7] ✔
Giffords[8] ✔
Human Rights Campaign[9] ✔
Political Revolution[10] ✔


Campaign finance

The chart below contains information obtained from the Federal Election Commission.


Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Greg Stanton Democratic Party $2,510,256 $2,465,871 $44,385 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Race ratings: Arizona's 9th Congressional District election, 2018
Race tracker Race ratings
October 30, 2018 October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political Report Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales Solid Democratic Solid DemocraticSolid DemocraticSolid Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball Safe Democratic Safe DemocraticSafe DemocraticSafe Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District election history

2016

U.S. House, Arizona District 9 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKyrsten Sinema Incumbent 60.9% 169,055
     Republican Dave Giles 39% 108,350
     N/A Write-in 0% 102
Total Votes 277,507
Source: Arizona Secretary of State
U.S. House, Arizona District 9 Republican Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngDave Giles 60.7% 25,963
John Agra 39.3% 16,817
Total Votes 42,780
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2014

U.S. House, Arizona District 9 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKyrsten Sinema Incumbent 54.7% 88,609
     Republican Wendy Rogers 41.9% 67,841
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 3.5% 5,612
Total Votes 162,062
Source: Arizona Secretary of State

2012

U.S. House, Arizona District 9 General Election, 2012
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngKyrsten Sinema 48.7% 121,881
     Republican Vernon B. Parker 44.6% 111,630
     Libertarian Powell Gammill 6.6% 16,630
Total Votes 250,141
Source: Arizona Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election"

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states. No counties in Arizona are Pivot Counties.

Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Trump won 48.7 percent of the vote, while Clinton won 45.1 percent. Arizona was one of 12 key battleground states in 2016. Of the 30 states won by Trump in 2016, Arizona had the fifth closest margin. From when it became a state in 1912 to 2016, Arizona voted Republican in 66.7 percent of presidential elections. It voted Republican in all presidential elections from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Arizona. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[11][12]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 12 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 25 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 14 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 27.5 points. Clinton won two districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 18 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 22.9 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 16 out of 30 state House districts in Arizona with an average margin of victory of 21.5 points.


State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Arizona heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans controlled both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature. They had a 35-25 majority in the state House and a 17-13 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Arizona was a Republican trifecta, meaning that the Republican Party controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Arizona elections, 2018

Arizona held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Arizona
 ArizonaU.S.
Total population:6,817,565316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):113,5943,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:78.4%73.6%
Black/African American:4.2%12.6%
Asian:3%5.1%
Native American:4.4%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.2%0.2%
Two or more:3.2%3%
Hispanic/Latino:30.3%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.5%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$50,255$53,889
Persons below poverty level:21.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Arizona.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Arizona's three largest cities were Phoenix (pop. est. 1,626,078), Tucson (pop. est. 535,677), and Mesa (pop. est. 496,401).[13][14]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Arizona Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Arizona every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 48.7% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 45.1% 3.6%
2012 Republican Party Mitt Romney 53.7% Democratic Party Barack Obama 44.6% 9.1%
2008 Republican Party John McCain 53.6% Democratic Party Barack Obama 45.1% 7.5%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 54.9% Democratic Party John Kerry 44.4% 10.5%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 51.0% Democratic Party Al Gore 44.5% 5.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Arizona from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party John McCain 53.7% Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick 40.7% 13.0%
2012 Republican Party Jeff Flake 49.2% Democratic Party Richard Carmona 46.2% 3.0%
2010 Republican Party John McCain 58.9% Democratic Party Rodney Glassman 34.7% 24.2%
2006 Republican Party Jon Kyl 53.3% Democratic Party Jim Pederson 43.5% 9.8%
2004 Republican Party John McCain 76.7% Democratic Party Stuart Starky 20.6% 56.1%
2002 Republican Party Jon Kyl 79.3% Grey.png William Toel (I) 7.8% 7.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Arizona.

Election results (Governor), Arizona 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Doug Ducey 53.4% Democratic Party Fred DuVal 41.6% 11.8%
2010 Republican Party Jan Brewer 54.3% Democratic Party Terry Goddard 42.4% 12.1%
2006 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 62.6% Republican Party Len Munsil 35.4% 27.2%
2002 Democratic Party Janet Napolitano 46.2% Republican Party Matt Salmon 45.2% 1.0%'

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Arizona in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Arizona 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2014 Republican Party 5 55.5% Democratic Party 4 44.4% R+1
2012 Republican Party 4 44.4% Democratic Party 5 55.5% D+1
2010 Republican Party 5 62.5% Democratic Party 3 37.5% R+2
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 4 50% Democratic Party 4 50% Even
2004 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2002 Republican Party 6 75% Democratic Party 2 25% R+4
2000 Republican Party 5 83.3% Democratic Party 1 16.6% R+4

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Arizona Party Control: 1992-2025
No Democratic trifectas  •  Twenty-two years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Governor R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D
Senate R R R R R R R R R S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R



See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ AZ Central, "Rep. Kyrsten Sinema enters Senate race, hoping to unseat Jeff Flake," September 28, 2017
  2. ↑ Washington Post, "Census 2010 shows red states gaining congressional seats," December 21, 2010
  3. ↑ AZcentral.com "Candidate Q&A: Greg Stanton," accessed August 18, 2014
  4. ↑ Greg Stanton 2018 campaign website, "About," accessed June 19, 2018
  5. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  6. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  7. ↑ End Citizens United, "Greg Stanton," accessed July 13, 2018
  8. ↑ Giffords, "GUN SAFETY ORGANIZATION GIFFORDS SUPPORTS PHOENIX MAYOR GREG STANTON FOR CONGRESS," March 21, 2018
  9. ↑ Human Rights Campaign, "HRC Endorses Greg Stanton for Congress," June 13, 2018
  10. ↑ Political Revolution, "Endorsements," accessed July 5, 2018
  11. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  12. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  13. ↑ Arizona Demographics, "Arizona Cities by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  14. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Arizona," accessed August 30, 2018


Arizona's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Ruben Gallego (D)
Mark Kelly (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Eli Crane (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
Vacant
District 8
District 9
Republican Party (6)
Democratic Party (4)
Vacancies (1)


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