Arkansas's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012
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November 6, 2012 |
May 22, 2012 |
Tom Cotton  |
Mike Ross  |
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The 4th Congressional District of Arkansas held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012. Tom Cotton was elected on November 6, 2012.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: Arkansas has an open primary system, in which registered voters do not have to be members of a party to vote in that party's primary.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by April 23. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 8.[2]
- See also: Arkansas elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was Mike Ross (D), who was first elected in 2000. Ross did not run for re-election.
This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. The 4th District is located in southwestern Arkansas. Madison, Newton, Johnson, Franklin, Crawford, Sebastian, Logan, Yell, Scott, Polk, Montgomery, Garland, Sevier, Howard, Little River, Grant, Jefferson, Cleveland, Drew, Ashley, Bradley, Calhoun, Union, Columbia, Miller, Lafayette, Hempstead, Nevada, Clark and Dallas Counties are included in the new boundaries of the district.[3]
Candidates
General election candidates
June 12, 2012, Democratic primary runoff
May 22, 2012, primary results
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Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gene Jeffress | 36.7% | 95,013 | |
| Republican |  Tom Cotton |
59.5% | 154,149 | |
| Green | Joshua Drake | 1.9% | 4,807 | |
| Libertarian | Bobby Tullis | 1.9% | 4,984 | |
| Total Votes | 258,953 | |||
| Source: Arkansas Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Tom Cotton |
57.6% | 20,899 |
| Beth Anne Rankin | 37.1% | 13,460 |
| John Cowart | 5.4% | 1,953 |
| Total Votes | 36,312 | |
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in Arkansas
Arkansas's 4th Congressional District gained all or part of eight western counties. This includes all of Franklin, Johnson, Madison, and Yell counties and parts of Crawford, Newton, and Sebastian counties. It also lost three counties, Chicot, Desha, and Lincoln. This shifted the district from its traditionally Democratic base to one which may favor Republicans.
Dr. Jay Barth, a professor of political science at Hendrix College, said "The Fourth District will certainly be unpredictable this cycle." He also said, "Right now, you'd have to say advantage Republicans for the fall. I think no matter who the GOP nominee is the Republican National Congressional Campaign Committee is going to see a real possibility for a pick-up in that district and they're going to come in with money. The real question really becomes does the DCCC (Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) see the district as one they can save."[10]
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Arkansas's 4th District became more Republican because of redistricting.[11]
- 2012: 35D / 65R
- 2010: 37D / 63R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. Arkansas's 4th Congressional District has a PVI of R+9, which is the 126th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by John McCain (R), 62-38 percent over Barack Obama (D). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 54-46 percent over John Kerry (D).[12]
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Gene Jeffress
| Gene Jeffress (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[13] | April 25, 2012 | $8,000 | $17,900 | $(13,779.74) | $8,120.26 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[14] | May 16, 2012 | $8,120.26 | $5,000 | $(2,162.56) | $10,957.70 | ||||
| Pre-Runoff[15] | June 4, 2012 | $10,957.70 | $9,271 | $(14,903.59) | $5,324.41 | ||||
| July Quarterly[16] | June 29, 2012 | $5,324.41 | $28,950 | $(12,543.23) | $16,931.18 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $61,121 | $(43,389.12) | ||||||||
Tom Cotton
| Tom Cotton (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[17] | April 14, 2012 | $479,006.82 | $352,504.94 | $(193,288) | $638,223.76 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[18] | May 10, 2012 | $638,223.76 | $188,296.88 | $(389,744.78) | $436,775.86 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $540,801.82 | $(583,032.78) | ||||||||
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
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2010
On November 2, 2010, Ross won re-election to the Mike Ross. He defeated Beth Anne Rankin and Josh Drake in the general election.[19]
| U.S. House, Arkansas District 4 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | Mike Ross Incumbent |
57.5% | 102,479 | |
| Republican | Beth Anne Rankin | 40.2% | 71,526 | |
| Green | Josh Drake | 2.3% | 4,129 | |
| Total Votes | 178,134 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
External links
- Tom Cotton campaign website
- Beth Anne Rankin campaign website
- Marcus Richmond campaign website
- Official candidate list
Footnotes
- ↑ ABC News, "2012 General Election Results," accessed November 6, 2012
- ↑ Arkansas Secretary of State, "2012 Election Calendar," accessed July 20, 2012 (dead link)
- ↑ Arkansas April 2011 Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed July 23, 2012
- ↑ "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.," RealClearPolitics.com, August 29, 2011
- ↑ Talkbusiness.net, "Greg Hale's Name Surfaces In Fourth District Congressional Race," January 18, 2012
- ↑ "In Ross's wake," ArkTimes.com, July 27, 2011
- ↑ Arkansas Times, " Another (armed)candidate for 4th District Congress," December 12, 2011
- ↑ "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.," RealClearPolitics.com, August 29, 2011
- ↑ "Rankin, Jeffress launch congressional bids in Ark.," RealClearPolitics.com, August 29, 2011
- ↑ TheCityWire.com, "New lines shape Arkansas’ 4th District race," March 27, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in Arkansas," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress April Quarterly," accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress Pre-Primary," accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress Pre-Runoff," accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Gene Jeffress July Quarterly," accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Tom Cotton April Quarterly," accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Tom Cotton Pre-Primary," accessed July 9, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
