Arkansas State Senate elections, 2016
 |
Presidential • U.S. Senate • U.S. House • State Senate • State House • State judges • Local judges • State ballot measures • School boards • Recalls • Candidate ballot access |
 |
|
2018 →
← 2014
|
|
| 2016 Arkansas Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
 | |
| Primary | March 1, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
| 2014・2012・2010・2008 2006・2004・2002・2000 | |
| 2016 Elections | |
|---|---|
| Choose a chamber below: | |
|
| |
| • State legislative elections in 2016 | |
A total of 17 seats out of the 35 seats in the Arkansas State Senate were up for election in 2016. Arkansas state senators serve staggered, four-year terms and usually half of the Senate is up for election every two years. Republicans gained two seats in the November 2016 general election.
Introduction
Ballotpedia's analyses revealed that Republicans were able to automatically win 10 of the 17 seats up for election in 2016. This made it numerically impossible for Democrats to take control of the state senate.
An upward trend in uncontested state legislative elections occurred over the last 40 years. In Arkansas, the number of Democratic candidates dropped significantly after redistricting in 2012. Democrats ran in 88 percent of the state senate seats up for election in 2010. In 2014, the number dropped to more than half: out of the 18 seats up for election, only 8 Democrats filed to run.
Elections for the Arkansas State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election was held on March 1, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing period began at noon local time on November 2, 2015, and ended at noon local time on November 9, 2015.[1]
Context of the 2016 elections
Redistricting and a more polarized electorate made the state’s districts less competitive, and for Arkansas Democrats—as the districts have become more firmly Republican—it was harder to field strong candidates.
H.L. Moody, communications director for the Democratic Party of Arkansas, told Ballotpedia that potential Democratic candidates were unable to capture donations, and some “[didn’t] see a path to victory.”[2] Without the numbers to win the state senate, Moody said that the party’s goal was to “start building back where we can,” beginning with the House.[2]
Political analyst Richard Winger said the early primary deadline for the 2016 elections was a possible factor as well, having made it difficult for Democrats to recruit candidates early.[3]
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the Arkansas State Senate:
| Arkansas State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 11 | 9 | |
| Republican Party | 24 | 26 | |
| Total | 35 | 35 | |
Historical background
Republicans held the chamber since breaking a long-standing Democratic foothold in 2012. Prior to 2012, Democrats maintained strong control of the chamber since 1872.
Arkansas has shown very few districts with major party competition in the general election since 2012, despite 11 districts being won by a margin of victory less than 10 percent. Two major party candidates were fielded in just three districts (16.7%) in 2014. Elections in 2016 again had three districts (17.7%) with general election competition. The national average for seats with general election competition was around 60 percent in 2014.
Retired incumbents
Two incumbent senators did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Jon Woods |  Republican |
Senate District 7 |
| David Johnson |  Democratic |
Senate District 32 |
2016 election competitiveness
Arkansas continues below average performance in electoral competitiveness.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Arkansas performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Arkansas State Senate elections, 2016, there were 13 Democratic incumbents and 24 Republican incumbents. No incumbents faced primary challengers in the Democratic Party. Two primary challenges took place in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 36 Democratic incumbents, 63 Republican incumbents, and one independent incumbent. Two state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were six primary challenges that took place in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Arkansas can be found below.
List of candidates
General election
| 2016 Arkansas Senate general election candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District |  Democrat
|
 Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Bart Hester (I)  |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Jim Hendren (I) |
|
| 7 | No candidate | Lance Eads |
|
| 11 | No candidate | Jimmy Hickey (I) |
|
| 12 | Bruce Maloch (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | No candidate | Alan Clark (I) |
|
| 16 | No candidate | Greg Standridge (I) |
|
| 21 | No candidate | John Cooper (I) |
|
| 22 | David Burnett: 9,477 (I) | Dave Wallace: 14,453 |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Ronald Caldwell (I) |
|
| 25 | Stephanie Flowers (I) |
No candidate | |
| 26 | Eddie Cheatham: 21,040 (I) |
No candidate | Elvis Presley: 5,703 (L) |
| 27 | Bobby Pierce: 13,986 (I) | Trent Garner: 16,803 |
|
| 28 | No candidate | Jonathan Dismang (I) |
|
| 29 | No candidate | Eddie Joe Williams (I) |
|
| 32 | Will Bond: 28,082 |
No candidate | Jacob Mosier: 9,351 (L) |
| 34 | Joe Woodson: 15,541 | Jane English: 21,497 (I) |
|
Notes:
| |||
Primary election
| 2016 Arkansas Senate primary candidates | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| District | Democrat
|
Republican
|
Other |
| 1 | No candidate | Bart Hester (I) |
|
| 2 | No candidate | Jim Hendren (I) |
|
| 7 | No candidate | Lance Eads: 6,292 Sharon Lloyd: 4,291 |
|
| 11 | No candidate | Jimmy Hickey (I) |
|
| 12 | Bruce Maloch (I) |
No candidate | |
| 13 | No candidate | Alan Clark (I) |
|
| 16 | No candidate | Greg Standridge (I) |
|
| 21 | No candidate | John Cooper (I) |
|
| 22 | David Burnett (I) |
Dave Wallace |
|
| 23 | No candidate | Ronald Caldwell (I) |
|
| 25 | Stephanie Flowers (I) |
No candidate | |
| 26 | Eddie Cheatham (I) |
No candidate | Elvis Presley (L)
|
| 27 | Bobby Pierce (I) |
Trent Garner |
|
| 28 | No candidate | Jonathan Dismang (I) |
|
| 29 | No candidate | Eddie Joe Williams (I): 8,149 R.D. Hopper: 6,651 |
|
| 32 | Will Bond |
No candidate | Jacob Mosier (L)
|
| 34 | Joe Woodson |
Jane English (I): 6,693 Donnie Copeland: 6,370 |
|
Notes:
| |||
State legislative primary runoff elections
In Arkansas, the candidate who won in the first primary election wins 94 percent of the time.
State legislative primary runoff elections are second-round contests to determine a winner when the primary vote is not decisive. Nine states including Arkansas have provisions for primary runoff elections to fill legislative seats. Candidates who finish in first place in state legislative primary elections usually end up winning the primary runoffs—on average, nearly 69 percent of the time.
From 2010 to 2015, there were 224 runoffs held in 9 states. In 154 of those races, the first place candidate won both the primary and the primary runoff. In 70 of the races, the second place candidate in the primary went on to win the primary runoff.
Click here for more information on legislative primary runoffs »
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Arkansas State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 17 races in the Arkansas State Senate in 2016, five were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 30.7 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[4]
| Democratic candidates in the Arkansas State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won four races in 2016. In the two races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 57.4 percent. Republicans won 13 races. In the three races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 16.1 percent. |
| More Republican candidates than Democratic candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. Only one of the five contested races in 2016—20 percent—saw a margin of victory that was 10 percent or less. There were no races with a margin of victory that was 5 percent or less. A Republican won the race with a margin of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Arkansas State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory District 27 R 9.1 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Arkansas State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was higher than the national average. 13 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the two winning Arkansas Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 36.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Arkansas State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. Three Democratic incumbents won reelection. In the one race where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 57.4 percent. 10 Republican incumbents won reelection. In the one race where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the margin of victory was 16.1 percent. |
Arkansas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[5] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[5] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 4 53.7 percent 3 57.4 percent 2 2 50.0 percent Republican 13 15.3 percent 10 16.1 percent 9 10 76.9 percent Total 17 30.7 percent 13 36.7 percent 11 12 70.6 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Arkansas State Senate districts in 2016.
| Arkansas State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory by District | ||
|---|---|---|
| District | Winning Party | Margin of Victory |
| District 1 | R | Unopposed |
| District 2 | R | Unopposed |
| District 7 | R | Unopposed |
| District 11 | R | Unopposed |
| District 12 | D | Unopposed |
| District 13 | R | Unopposed |
| District 16 | R | Unopposed |
| District 21 | R | Unopposed |
| District 22 | R | 60.4 percent |
| District 23 | R | Unopposed |
| District 25 | D | Unopposed |
| District 26 | D | 78.7 percent |
| District 27 | R | 54.6 percent |
| District 28 | R | Unopposed |
| District 29 | R | Unopposed |
| District 32 | D | 75.0 percent |
| District 34 | R | 58.0 percent |
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Arkansas elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Arkansas in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| September 3, 2015 | Ballot access | Deadline for new political parties to file qualifying paperwork | |
| October 15, 2015 | Campaign finance | Quarterly report due for third quarter of 2015 | |
| November 2, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period for party candidates opens at 12:00 p.m.; filing period for nonpartisan candidates opens at 3:00 p.m.; filing period opens for independent and write-in candidates | |
| November 16, 2015 | Campaign finance | Statement of financial interest for 2014 due for non-incumbent candidates | |
| November 16, 2015 | Campaign finance | October monthly report due | |
| November 9, 2015 | Ballot access | Filing period for party candidates closes at 12:00 p.m.; filing period for nonpartisan candidates closes at 3:00 p.m.; filing period closes for independent and write-in candidates | |
| December 15, 2015 | Campaign finance | November monthly report due | |
| January 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | December monthly report due | |
| February 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Statement of financial interest for 2015 due for all candidates | |
| February 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | January monthly report due | |
| February 23, 2016 | Campaign finance | If opposed in primary, preelection report due for primary election | |
| March 1, 2016 | Election date | Preferential primary election; nonpartisan general election | |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | If unopposed in primary or did not participate in primary, February monthly report due | |
| March 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preelection report due for primary election runoff | |
| March 22, 2016 | Election date | General primary runoff election | |
| April 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | If candidate did not participate in primary, March monthly report due | |
| May 2, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final report due for primary election and primary runoff | |
| May 16, 2016 | Campaign finance | April monthly report due | |
| June 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | May monthly report due | |
| July 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | June monthly report due | |
| August 9, 2016 | Election date | Municipal party primary election | |
| August 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | July monthly report due | |
| September 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | August monthly report due | |
| September 20, 2016 | Election date | Annual school board election | |
| October 11, 2016 | Election date | Annual school board runoff election | |
| October 17, 2016 | Campaign finance | September monthly report due | |
| November 1, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preelection report due | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election; nonpartisan runoff election | |
| November 15, 2016 | Campaign finance | October monthly report due if unopposed | |
| November 22, 2016 | Campaign finance | Preelection report due for special runoff election | |
| November 29, 2016 | Election date | General runoff election (county and municipal) | |
| December 30, 2016 | Campaign finance | Final report due general and runoff election | |
| Sources: Arkansas Secretary of State, "2016 Election Dates," accessed August 7, 2015 Arkansas State Board of Election Commissioners, "Running for Public Office: 2016 Edition," accessed September 21, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 14 of the 17 districts up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of four Democrats and 10 Republicans were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in three (17.7%) of the 17 districts up for election.
Primary challenges
Two incumbents faced primary competition on March 1. Two incumbents did not seek re-election and another 13 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition. The incumbents facing primary competition were:
- District 29: Incumbent Eddie Joe Williams defeated challenger R.D. Hopper in the Republican primary.
- District 34: Incumbent Jane English defeated challenger Donnie Copeland in the Republican primary.
Retired incumbents
Two incumbents did not run for re-election, while 15 ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, one Republican and one Democrat, can be found above.
Impact of term limits
- See also: State legislatures with term limits
The Arkansas State Senate has been a term-limited state senate since Arkansas voters approved the Arkansas Term Limits Initiative in 1992 as an initiated constitutional amendment. In 2014, Arkansas voters passed the Arkansas Elected Officials Ethics, Transparency and Financial Reform Amendment which permits legislators to serve a total of 16 years in the House or Senate during his or her lifetime.
There are 35 Arkansas State Senators, 18 of whom were up for re-election in November. No senators were term-limited in 2016.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Arkansas' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Arkansas General Assembly 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 26.3% | 9.2% | 31.4% | 22.9 | 40 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Arkansas in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[6]
| Arkansas State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 34 | $3,388,401 |
| 2012 | 68 | $6,958,968 |
| 2010 | 38 | $3,785,938 |
| 2008 | 23 | $2,267,710 |
| 2006 | 27 | $1,571,690 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Arkansas, at $99,659 per candidate, is ranked 21 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[6][7]
Qualifications
Article 5, Section 4 of the Arkansas Constitution states: "No person shall be a Senator or Representative who, at the time of his election, is not a citizen of the United States, nor any one who has not been for two years next preceding his election, a resident of this State, and for one year next preceding his election, a resident of the county or district whence he may be chosen. Senators shall be at least twenty-five years of age, and Representatives at least twenty-one years of age."
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Arkansas Secretary of State, "2016 Election Dates," accessed November 17, 2015
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 Zenovia Gallagher, "Telephone interview with H.L. Moody, communications director for the Democratic Party of Arkansas," December 31, 2015
- ↑ Zenovia Gallagher,Telephone interview with political analyst Richard Winger," January 4, 2016.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Arkansas," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
