Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Minnesota Congressional Seats

October 31, 2012

By Ballotpedia's Congressional team

Minnesota's Congressional Elections in 2012
U.S. Senate Election?	U.S. House seats	Possible competitive races?
Yes	8	2 (2nd & 8th)

ST. PAUL: Minnesota: Minnesota has eight U.S. House seats and one U.S. Senate seat on the ballot in 2012. All eight U.S. House incumbents face at least one challenger and U.S. Senate incumbent Amy Klobuchar (D) faces four challengers on November 6 in the general election.

Minnesota's eight congressional districts are split evenly between Democratic and Republican incumbents with four each.

In Minnesota, most polling places are open from 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM Central Time. However, some smaller municipalities may open as late as 10:00 AM.

See also: State Poll Opening and Closing Times (2012)

U.S. Senate

Democratic incumbent Senator Amy Klobuchar, first elected in 2006, is running for re-election in 2012. Also vying for the Class 1 Senate seat in the November 6th general election is Republican nominee Kurt Bills, as well as three minor-party challengers: Independence nominee Stephen Williams, Grassroots' Timothy Davis, and Minnesota Open Progressives candidate Michael Cavlan.

Analysis done by both the New York Times and the Cook Political Report race ratings have listed the race as Solid Democratic. Klobuchar is expected to win re-election.

State	General Election Candidates	Incumbent	2012 Winner	Partisan Switch?
Minnesota Class 1 Senate seat	Amy Klobuchar Kurt Bills Stephen Williams Timothy Davis Michael Cavlan	Amy Klobuchar	Pending	Pending

U.S. House

According to the New York Times race ratings in October 2012, two of the eight districts are considered to be in play. Those are the 2nd and 8th districts.

Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District is considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent John Kline faces former state representative and Democratic challenger Mike Obermueller (D) in the general election.

According to the Washington Post, redistricting has transformed the 2nd District from a safe seat into a swing district. While the 2nd formerly went safely for Republican John Kline, the newly drawn district will be a battleground for Republicans and Democrats fighting for control of the House. Democratic leaders have slated Mike Obermueller as their "Red to Blue" program candidate.

FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. Minnesota's 2nd District became less Republican because of redistricting.

A recent poll has Kline leading Obermueller 49% to 41%.

Additionally, Minnesota's 8th Congressional District is considered to be a toss-up according to the New York Times race ratings. Republican incumbent Chip Cravaack faces Democratic challenger Rick Nolan in the general election.

Minnesota's 8th has been included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identifies districts that the organization has specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control. FairVote's partisanship study shows Minnesota's 8th District became more Democratic because of redistricting.

Recent polls have favored each candidate respectively.

Chip Cravaack vs. Rick Nolan
Poll	Chip Cravaack	Rick Nolan	Don't know	Margin of error	Sample size
Public Policy Polling (October 25-26, 2012)	44%	48%	8%	+/-3.8	1,020
OnMessage Inc. (October 24-25, 2012)	50%	40%	10%	+/-4.9	400
AVERAGES	47%	44%	9%	+/-4.35	710
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

Here is a complete list of U.S. House candidates appearing on the general election ballot in Minnesota:

Candidates running by District

District	General Election Candidates	Incumbent	2012 Winner	Partisan Switch?
1st	Tim Walz Allen Quist	Tim Walz	Pending	Pending
2nd	Mike Obermueller John Kline	John Kline	Pending	Pending
3rd	Brian Barnes Erik Paulsen	Erik Paulsen	Pending	Pending
4th	Betty McCollum Tony Hernandez Steve Carlson	Betty McCollum	Pending	Pending
5th	Keith Ellison Chris Fields	Keith Ellison	Pending	Pending
6th	Jim Graves Michele Bachmann	Michele Bachmann	Pending	Pending
7th	Collin Peterson Lee Byberg Adam Steele	Collin Peterson	Pending	Pending
8th	Rick Nolan Chip Cravaack	Chip Cravaack	Pending	Pending

Partisan breakdown by district

Members of the U.S. House from Minnesota -- Partisan Breakdown
Party		As of November 2012	After the 2012 Election
	Democratic Party	4	5
	Republican Party	4	3
Total		8	8

Comparison of new and old redistricting maps

Congressional Redistricting Map, approved February 2012  For more information, view Redistricting in Minnesota.
This is the approved congressional map using the 2010 Census. This is the approved congressional map using the 2000 Census.

Articles

• 2012 elections review: One incumbents defeated in Minnesota primaries August 15
• 2012 elections preview: Minnesota voters to select winners in congressional, legislative primaries August 13

See also

• November 6, 2012 election results
• Ballotpedia's 2012 General Election Preview Articles: Minnesota State Legislature
• United States Senate elections in Minnesota, 2012
• United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2012
  • Minnesota's 1st Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 4th Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 5th Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 6th Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 7th Congressional District elections, 2012
  • Minnesota's 8th Congressional District elections, 2012
• Minnesota elections, 2012
• National contested primary average during the 2012 U.S. congressional elections