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Ballotpedia's Daily Brew


This week's question was, Which of these states voted for the winning candidate in five of the six previous presidential elections? with Wyoming, Iowa, Colorado, and Hawaii as options.

You answered: Hawaii.
The correct answer was Colorado.

Colorado voted for the winning presidential election in five of the six previous presidential elections. The only time the state voted for the losing candidate was in 2016 when the state supported Hillary Clinton (D) instead of Donald Trump (R). Of the remaining three options, Hawaii and Wyoming voted for the winning candidate in three of the six previous elections while Iowa voted for the winning candidate in four of the six.

Three out of six, or an accuracy rate of 50%, was the most common between 2000 and 2020 largely due to partisan polarization: most of the 35 states with that accuracy rate—Hawaii and Wyoming included—voted for the same party in each of the six previous presidential elections.

Colorado is one of five states that voted for the winning candidate in five out of six of the previous presidential elections. The others are Florida, Nevada, Ohio, and Virginia.

The map below shows the accuracy rates by state with a darker shade meaning the state voted for the winning candidate more often and a lighter shade meaning the opposite.



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Footnotes