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Ballotpedia's Daily Presidential News Briefing - June 30, 2016
From Ballotpedia
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Thursday's Leading Stories
- On Wednesday, senior writer Jim Barnes analyzed Ballotpedia’s battleground poll. The results show that Trump trails Clinton in seven states swing states—Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Barnes wrote, “Comparing these Ballotpedia Battleground findings to the 2012 presidential election results and exit polls in these seven states underscores some of Trump’s challenges. In a two-way trial heat match-up with Clinton, Trump currently trails Clinton in all seven states, but the presumptive Democratic nominee commands an outright majority in only one—Florida, the most demographically diverse state in this bunch. These polls also show that there are relatively large numbers of voters in all seven of these states who say that they would vote for neither of the two major party nominees.” (Ballotpedia)
- Barnes also noted the influence of Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson on the race. Barnes wrote, “When Libertarian presidential nominee Gary Johnson is added to the general election trial heats, 5-8 percent of the polls’ respondents still say they wouldn’t vote for any of the candidates. Johnson’s potential impact on the contest between Trump and Clinton is not decisive one way or the other: The Libertarian tends to draw support from both of the major party candidates in roughly equal measure. However, Johnson’s candidacy does appear to tighten the race in Iowa.”
- During his visit to Canada on Wednesday, President Barack Obama criticized Trump’s stance on trade. Obama said, "Ordinary people who have concerns about trade have a legitimate gripe about globalization. … The question is, what do you do about it. And the prescription of withdrawing from trade deals and focusing solely on your local market -- that's the wrong medicine.” On Tuesday, Trump explained how he would change America’s “failed trade policy.” Rejecting the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal and renegotiating and potentially withdrawing from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) were two elements of his plan. (CNN)
- On Wednesday, in an op-ed arguing that New Hampshire’s Executive Council should vote to fund Planned Parenthood, Hillary Clinton promised that as president she would “make sure that a woman’s right to make her own health decisions remains as permanent as all of the other values we hold dear.” She wrote that she will always fund and support Planned Parenthood, “fight to protect access to safe and legal abortion,” and “support comprehensive, inclusive sex education.” She also criticized Trump’s stance on women’s healthcare, writing, “Donald Trump doesn’t think much about women’s health at all. But when pressed, he’s said that women ought to face ‘some form of punishment’ for having an abortion. He’s already released a list of the right-wing judges he’d consider for the Supreme Court – many of whom are committed to overturning Roe v. Wade. And he’s pledged to defund Planned Parenthood – an effort that would effectively try to spread the Executive Council’s actions to all 50 states.” (Concord Monitor)
Polls
- Florida: A Bay News 9/SurveyUSA poll released on Wednesday shows Hillary Clinton (46 percent) leading Donald Trump (42 percent) by four percentage points among likely voters in Florida. Gary Johnson has 2 percent support, and Jill Stein has 1 percent support. (Bay News 9/SurveyUSA)
- New Hampshire: An American Research Group poll released on Wednesday shows Clinton (47 percent) leading Trump (42 percent) by five percentage points among registered voters in New Hampshire. (American Research Group)
- North Carolina: A Civitas poll released on Wednesday shows Clinton (42 percent) leading Trump (40 percent) by two percentage points among likely voters in North Carolina. Johnson has 6 percent support. (Civitas)
- A Fox News poll released on Wednesday shows Clinton (44 percent) leading Trump (38 percent) by six percentage points. When Johnson is added to the race, Clinton has 41 percent support. Trump has 36 percent support, and Johnson has 10 percent support. (Fox News)
- A Quinnipiac poll released on Wednesday shows Clinton (42 percent) with a two-point lead over Trump (40 percent). When Johnson and Stein are added to the race, Clinton maintains her two-point lead. Clinton has 39 percent support. Trump has 37 percent support, and Johnson and Stein come in at 8 and 4 percent support, respectively. (Quinnipiac)
- On Wednesday, Nate Silver, the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight, predicted that Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the presidential election, while Trump has a 20 percent chance. Silver said, "We're at halftime of the election right now. She's taking a 7-point, maybe a 10-point lead into halftime. There's a lot of football left to be played. She's ahead in almost every poll, every swing state, every national poll. … Trump has never been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent." (ABC News)
Democrats
Hillary Clinton
- President Barack Obama will appear with Hillary Clinton at a campaign event next Tuesday in Charlotte, North Carolina. On Wednesday, Clinton’s campaign said that Obama and Clinton "will discuss building on the progress we've made and their vision for an America that is stronger together.” (Politico)
- A transcript of Huma Abedin’s deposition released on Wednesday revealed that Clinton’s “use of a private e-mail server to conduct government business on at least one occasion got in the way of Clinton’s work and left the aide frustrated,” according to Bloomberg. Abedin, the vice chair of Clinton’s presidential campaign and Clinton’s deputy chief of staff during her years as secretary of state, sent an email to Clinton in November 2010 stating that they “should talk about putting you on state email or releasing your email address to the department so you are not going to spam.” Abedin sent the email because Clinton missed a scheduled phone call. Clinton responded to Abedin, saying “that she could get a ‘separate address or device’ but said she didn’t ‘want any risk of the personal being accessible.’” Abedin said that it was Clinton’s decision to set up a private server for personal and official business. (Bloomberg, The Washington Post)
- According to CNN, “Clinton-headlined fundraisers have brought in close to $34 million this month.” CNN noted that the figure does not “include money raised online and in fundraisers headlined by other Clinton surrogates.”(CNN)
Bernie Sanders
- A group of Bernie Sanders’ supporters filed a lawsuit against the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and DNC Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) “for fraud, negligence, misrepresentation, and other claims,” according to The New Times. The plaintiffs wrote, "’[T]he truth of the DNC's deception started to come to public light’ this month, after a hacker known as ‘Guccifer 2.0’ released an alleged internal DNC document from 2015 that stated the DNC's ‘goals in the comings months will be to frame the Republican field and the eventual nominee early and to provide a contrast between the GOP field and [Hillary Clinton]. … Despite there being every indication that the 2016 Democratic primary would be contested by multiple candidates, including Sanders, the DNC Memo makes no mention of any Democratic candidate except Clinton, and builds the DNC's election strategy on the assumption that Clinton will be the nominee, with no doubts attached.’” (The New Times)
- The Washington Post examined if and how Sanders’ political revolution is taking off by tracking how his endorsees have done so far in their congressional primary elections, concluding that “There doesn't seem to be a Sanders political revolution happening, at least not yet.” Only one of the three candidates he has endorsed has won her primary election. Zephyr Teachout, who won the Democratic primary election in New York's 19th Congressional District, also had the backing of the major progressive groups. The true test of Sanders’ political clout will come in Florida’s August 30, 2016, primary election, when Tim Canova challenges DNC Chair and Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz for her seat in Florida's 23rd Congressional District. Sanders “essentially declared war on the Democratic establishment by backing” Canova instead of Schultz, according to The Post. (The Washington Post)
- Neil Sroka with Democracy for America said, "What's interesting to me is not so much the wins and losses that happen this year, but what happens over the next few cycles to the candidates endorsed by Sanders or who are inspired to run for office by Bernie Sanders's campaign."
Republicans
- On Wednesday, John Weaver, chief strategist for Ohio Governor John Kasich’s 2016 presidential campaign, sent an email to supporters highlighting a poll released by Ballotpedia that shows Kasich leading Hillary Clinton in battleground states. Weaver wrote, “Under a modeled electorate, Trump loses every swing state by 6-12 points. Governor Kasich wins 6 out of 7 swing states. Speaker Ryan wins 2 out of 7 swing states. This data is just further proof that Governor Kasich is the most popular Republican politician in the nation today and it underlines why his efforts to help our U.S. Senate and House candidates are so very important." (Politico, The Washington Times, The Hill)
- When asked why he sent the email, Weaver said, “[T]o show how tremendously helpful he will be as we fight in a very difficult environment to keep control of the House and Senate, and other down ballot races. … Also shows that a positive, conservative reform message which includes everyone is the right message for Republicans.”
Donald Trump
- On Wednesday, Donald Trump said that his primary opponents should honor their pledge to support his candidacy for president. Trump said, “It was a rough campaign, and I wasn’t nice, but they weren’t nice either. Honestly, you sign a pledge, you’re supposed to honor the pledge. … They broke their word, and in my opinion, they shouldn’t be allowed to run for office again ... because what they did is disgraceful." (The Hill)
- Ohio Gov. John Kasich, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former New York Gov. George Pataki, businesswoman Carly Fiorina, and Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) have not endorsed Trump.
- Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said he will support Trump, but has yet to formally endorse him. Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) has said “he will support whoever the GOP nominates.”
- Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.), former Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, and former Texas Gov. Rick Perry have endorsed Trump.
- On Wednesday, the National Rifle Association Political Victory Fund released the ad, “Stop Clinton, Vote Trump.” In the group’s first ad of the 2016 presidential race, Mark “Oz” Geist, “a Marine Corps veteran and security contractor who fought the assault on the U.S. mission in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012 that claimed four American lives, including Ambassador Chris Stevens,” says, “A lot of people say they’re not going to vote this November because their candidate didn’t win; Well, I know some people who won’t be voting this year either. … Hillary as President? No thanks. I served in Benghazi. My friends didn’t make it. They did their part. Do yours.” The ad will air in Colorado, Ohio, Nevada, Florida, Virginia, and Pennsylvania, and it is backed by more than $2 million. (USA Today)
- During a campaign event in St. Clairsville, Ohio, Trump expressed his support for waterboarding terrorists after the news of the terrorist attack in Istanbul, Turkey, broke on Tuesday night. Trump said, “We can’t do waterboarding, but they can do chopping off heads, drowning people in steel cages, they can do whatever they want to do. You know, you have to fight fire with fire. I like it a lot. I don’t think it’s tough enough.” (The Hill)
- On Wednesday, the Campaign Legal Center and Democracy 21 said they will file “a complaint with the Federal Election Commission, arguing that the Donald Trump campaign has broken federal law by sending fundraising emails to foreign elected officials,” according to Talking Points Memo. Paul S. Ryan, the deputy executive director at the Campaign Legal Center, said in a statement, "Donald Trump should have known better. It is a no-brainer that it violates the law to send fundraising emails to members of a foreign government on their official foreign government email accounts, and yet, that's exactly what Trump has done repeatedly." Elected officials in Iceland, Scotland, Britain, Australia, Denmark, and Finland have reportedly received fundraising emails from Trump’s campaign. (Talking Points Memo)
Third Party Candidates
Jill Stein (Green Party)
- On Wednesday, Jill Stein expressed her support for legalizing marijuana. She tweeted: “California will be voting on marijuana legalization in November. I urge a YES vote. We should legalize pot nationally.” (Twitter)
- On Tuesday, Stein “said that the proposed deal with Mexico and Canada to go to 50% carbon-free electricity from 2025 is inadequate to meet the climate goals set in Paris,” according to a press release from her campaign. Stein said, "Obama's proposals are a step in the right direction but way too little. We need an emergency national mobilization similar to what our country did after Pearl Harbor at the outset of WWII." Stein proposes transitioning “to 100% clean energy for everything - not just electricity – by 2030 while creating 20 million jobs and avoiding hundreds of thousands of annual ‘excess deaths’ from air pollution.” (JillStein2016.com)
Gary Johnson (Libertarian Party)
- On Wednesday, Gary Johnson and Bill Weld released an ad touting their accomplishments as former governors of New Mexico and Massachusetts, respectively. In the ad, they present themselves as an alternative to Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, and they advocate for “small, efficient government that treats the American people like family instead of livestock.” (Twitter)
See also
- Presidential election, 2016
- Presidential candidates, 2016
- Presidential debates (2015-2016)
- Important dates in the 2016 presidential race
- Polls and Straw polls
- 2016 presidential candidate ratings and scorecards
