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Ballotpedia's Top 10 Democratic primaries, August 9, 2018

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These 10 Democratic Party primaries are the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Click here for more on how we build this list.

We made no additions and only a few small changes to the rankings in our Top 10 Democratic primaries list this week. However, the party's nominee in two of these races was decided on August 7. Sharice Davids, who has backed by EMILY's List, finished atop the six-candidate field in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District. Brent Welder, a labor lawyer who was endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, finished second.

In Michigan's 11th Congressional District, voters selected former Obama administration official Haley Stevens to be their nominee for the suburban Detroit House seat being vacated by David Trott (R). Donald Trump (R) and Mitt Romney (R) carried this district in 2016 and 2012, respectively, but Barack Obama won here in 2008, and three election forecasters have rated it as a Toss-up in November.

Two more top Democratic primaries will be decided during August - the swing-state governor's races in Florida and Minnesota. And five of the seven U.S. House races on this list feature spirited battles involving candidates backed by progressive groups. As of August 9, 2018, this list contains primaries for three governor’s races and seven U.S. House seats. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Click here to read our Top 10 Republican Party primaries list.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: August 9, 2018



Top 10 Democratic Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) New York's 14th Congressional District (June 26)
2. (3) Florida governor (August 28)
3. (2) Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)
4. (4) Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)
5. (6) Kansas' 3rd Congressional District (August 7)
6. (5) Colorado governor (June 26)
7. (7) Minnesota governor (August 14)
8. (8) Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)
9. (9) Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)
10. (10) Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (May 22)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

None

Top 10 Democratic Primaries race summaries

• New York's 14th Congressional District (June 26)

See also: New York's 14th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Democratic primary)

Long-time incumbent Rep. Joseph Crowley, who had not seen a primary challenge since 2004, was defeated by self-described democratic socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez in the Democratic primary for New York's 14th District.[1] Crowley became the first Democratic incumbent member of Congress to lose in the primary in 2018. He had been a congressman since 1999 and was chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, the 4th highest-ranking member in the Democratic Party leadership. Crowley was also identified by Roll Call as one of six Democrats most likely to succeed Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) should she step down as House Minority Leader.[2] At the end of March 2018, Crowley had a 22-to-1 fundraising lead over Ocasio-Cortez, who had pledged not to accept contributions from lobbyists.[3][4]

Ocasio-Cortez garnered endorsements from progressive groups including Justice Democrats, Brand New Congress, and NYC Democratic Socialists of America.[5] Crowley's list of endorsements included more than 20 labor unions, NARAL Pro-Choice America, Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America, and more than a dozen state legislators.[6] Both candidates expressed support for $15 minimum wage and Medicare for All policies; Ocasio-Cortez credited her campaign with pushing Crowley to the left on these issues, while Crowley's campaign argued that "he's always been a progressive advocate."[7][8]

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Democratic primary)

Florida Democrats are looking to take back the governor's office for the first time in 20 years with Gov. Rick Scott (R) term-limited and election forecasters calling the general election a "Toss-up." The Democratic primary field is divided between candidates identifying as centrists or liberals. Through self-funding and donations, the candidates had raised a combined $60 million by the end of July. Polling in late July and early August showed former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham leading the field.[9][10]

National and Florida Democrats have lined up behind Graham, who is the daughter of former Gov. and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham (D) and can draw from family wealth. She has emphasized her support for abortion access and the wave of women bringing forth sexual harassment allegations in late 2017 and 2018.[11] Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine, who previously owned a cruise line media company, had poured about $15 million of his own money into his campaign as of late July, with much of that going into television advertising.[12] His ads have emphasized his support for additional restrictions on firearms, stronger government regulation of Florida's environment, and increasing public education funding.[13]

Real estate developer Jeff Greene did not enter the race until June, but as of late July he had self-funded nearly $14 million.[14][15] Greene said he entered because none of his Democratic rivals were generating enthusiasm or could beat the Republican nominee in the general election.[16] He has since criticized Graham for her family’s business ventures, which he says threatened Florida’s environment.[17]

Two candidates who identify as progressives trail Graham, Greene, and Levine in the polls.[18] Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum is touting his support for single-payer healthcare and restoring felon voting rights.[19] He is the only candidate without personal or family wealth to fund his campaign, and has support from wealthy donors George Soros and Tom Steyer. Bernie Sanders endorsed him on August 1. Entrepreneur Christopher King is partially self-funding his campaign with around $5 million and calling for changes in gun laws and the criminal justice system. King sees millennial voters as key to his campaign.[19]

• Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)

See also: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)

Moderates and progressives clashed in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on May 15, where nonprofit executive and Metropolitan Community College board member Kara Eastman defeated the district’s former congressman, Brad Ashford. Ashford, who held the seat for a single term before losing his re-election bid to current incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R), had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which added him to its “Red to Blue” list.[20] The Progressive Change Campaign Committee backed Eastman. She also had the support of local unions and state figures such as state Sens. Tony Vargas and Justin Wayne. Eastman ran on a platform that included tuition-free college and universal healthcare.[21]

Eastman defeated Ashford by just over 1,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent.[22] While progressive groups celebrated Eastman's victory, political observers questioned whether her victory hurt Dems' chances to win the seat. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik tweeted after the primary that they were changing the rating on the general election race in this district from "Toss-up" to "Leans Republican" after Eastman’s victory. “Basically the NRCC got what it wanted and the DCCC didn't,” Kondik said.[23] The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is a national 527 group and subsidiary of the Republican Party that aims to build and maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives through contributions to Republican candidates and political organizations.[24][25] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is a similar group which supports the Democratic Party.

• Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

Longtime incumbent Rep. and Blue Dog Coalition member Daniel Lipinski defeated political newcomer Marie Newman by just over 2,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent, for the Democratic nomination in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District for a seat held by the party since 1975.[26] This race, called "a battle for the soul of the Democratic party” by Kate Sweeny of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was seen as a good example of the struggle between moderate and progressive Democrats.[27]

Newman based her campaign on her opposition to Lipinski's positions on reproductive issues and healthcare, saying that he opposed federal funding for cervical cancer screenings and voted against the Affordable Care Act because of funding for contraception included in the bill. Lipinski countered that he voted 26 times to support funding for family planning programs from 2005 to 2017.[28] Newman received the backing of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), the NARAL Pro-Choice America and the Human Rights Campaign. Lipinski was backed by the Illinois AFL-CIO, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D), state party chairman Michael Madigan (D), the Chicago Sun Times and the Chicago Tribune.[27]

• Kansas' 3rd Congressional District (August 7)

See also: Kansas' 3rd Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Democratic primary)

Sharice Davids defeated five opponents and won the party's nomination to challenge Rep. Kevin Yoder (R) in Kansas' 3rd Congressional District. Davids received just over 37 percent of the vote and finished about 2,000 votes ahead of second-place finisher Brent Welder, who took 34 percent. The district voted for Hillary Clinton (D) by 1 percentage point in the 2016 presidential election, and perceived dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump (R) brought the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) optimism that the district could be in play.[29] The DCCC placed the district on its target list for 2018.

Davids, who has experience as a lawyer, economic adviser, and former mixed martial arts competitor, ran with the backing of EMILY's List.[30] Davis would be the first Native American woman in Congress if elected, and she got her start in politics on a federal level working on economic development programs on the Pine Ridge Reservation in South Dakota.[31] Davids would also be the first openly gay member of the Kansas delegation and is endorsed by the LGBTQ Victory Fund.[32]

Welder is a labor lawyer who received endorsements from Our Revolution and the Congressional Progressive Caucus, among other progressive groups. He spent more than a year working for Bernie Sanders' (D) presidential campaign and ran on many of the policy positions that Sanders ran on in 2016, such as a $15 per hour minimum wage and Medicare for all.[33] Welder was endorsed by Bernie Sanders (I) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D) and he led all Democrats in small-dollar donations and cash on hand as of July.[34] Businessman and 2016 Democratic nominee Jay Sidie, nonprofit executive Mike McCamon, teacher Tom Niermann, and retired bank manager Sylvia Williams also ran.

• Colorado governor (June 26)

See also: Colorado gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (June 26 Democratic primary)

Rep. Jared Polis defeated former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy, former state Sen. Mike Johnston, and current Lt. Gov. Donna Lynne to win the Democratic primary for this purple state's highest office. While Kennedy was the first choice of 62 percent of delegates at the state party convention in April 2018, Polis received almost 45 percent of the vote to win, compared with Kennedy's 25 percent and Johnston's 23 percent.[35] Polis faces a competitive general election against the Republican nominee, state Treasurer Walker Stapleton in a contest characterized by ratings outlets as either "Leans Democratic" or "Toss-up." Colorado has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last three presidential elections.

Polis led in most polls. He promised free preschool and kindergarten as well as energy independence by 2040.[36] National political figures including Rep. John Lewis (D) and interest groups such as NORML PAC and the Sierra Club endorsed him. EMILY's List and labor unions such as the Communications Workers of America and the Colorado Education Association endorsed Kennedy, who called for increased funding for public schools and the creation of a public option for health insurance.[37] Johnston supported providing two years of tuition-free community college to state residents, the establishment of a civilian work corps, and the expansion of Medicaid to all state citizens.[38] Former Sen. Gary Hart (D) and former Gov. Dick Lamm (D) endorsed him. Lynne, a former insurance executive, ran on her private sector experience and her two years serving alongside term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D).[39]

• Minnesota governor (August 14)

See also: Minnesota gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 14 Democratic primary)

A three-way battle for the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton (D) unfolded in Minnesota as state Rep. Erin Murphy, Rep. Tim Walz, and state Attorney General Lori Swanson sought the party's nod. Murphy earned the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota's endorsement at its annual convention, defeating Walz and state Auditor Rebecca Otto (D), who subsequently suspended her campaign. Murphy is backed by the Service Employees International Union-Minnesota and the AFSCME and served in the state House since 2006, including holding various leadership positions within the DFL caucus.[40]

Walz has represented the Republican-leaning 1st Congressional District since 2007. Walz's history of representing his swing district and his past opposition to firearms regulations were identified by political observers as factors in his convention defeat.[41] He is backed by Education Minnesota, the state's largest labor union.[42] Swanson was serving her third term as attorney general, having been first elected in 2006. Swanson withdrew from the nominating process for attorney general at the 2018 convention after she did not secure a majority in the first round of voting. She instead launched a campaign for governor the day before the filing deadline with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) as her running mate.[43][44]

• Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (May 22)

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)

Style, not policy, separated Lexington Mayor Jim Gray and Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath as they competed for the Democratic nod in Kentucky’s 6th District. Both were ideologically moderate, said they might oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader, and each said they would work with President Donald Trump on specific issues. Gray was encouraged to run by the DCCC and suggested he would self-fund his campaign, if necessary. McGrath achieved national fame with campaign videos highlighting her military experience and used that fame to build a national fundraising network. McGrath portrayed Gray as the party’s choice for the seat and herself as the outsider.[45][46][47]

While Republican incumbent Andy Barr (R) won re-election in 2016 by more than 20 points, forecasters rate the general election as "Leans Republican."[48] McGrath defeated Gray and four other candidates to win the Democratic primary, taking 49 percent of the vote.

• Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)

See also: Virginia's 10th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)

Six well-funded candidates competed in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 10th Congressional District—a swing seat that simultaneously backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 points in the 2016 presidential election and elected Republican incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock.[49] Daily Kos identified Comstock as the eighth-most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the 2018 midterm elections, and it's likely Democrats had to win districts like this one to gain enough seats to win control of the House.[50] Four candidates raised $800,000 or more through the first quarter of 2018: former senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D), Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D), and former Obama administration official Lindsey Davis Stover.[51]

Wexton received about 42 percent of the vote to win the primary. Friedman finished second with 23 percent, and Stover was third with 16 percent.[52] The general election contest between Comstock and Wexton figures to be one of the most closely watched House races of this cycle.

• Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)

See also: Michigan's 11th Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Democratic primary)

Michigan Democrats selected Haley Stevens, a former official in the Obama administration, to be their nominee for this suburban Detroit seat being vacated by David Trott (R). With increasing attention on which party will control the House of Representatives next year, both parties see the general election for this seat as critical to winning the majority. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) targeted the seat in November 2017, but it did not endorse a candidate in the primary.[53] Stevens was endorsed by the Michigan Teamsters and focused her campaign on her experience in manufacturing policy. She received 27 percent of the vote.

Former state House Minority Leader Tim Greimel finished second with just under 22 percent. He had secured endorsements from former U.S. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.), education groups, and labor unions. Suneel Gupta was third, receiving about 500 fewer votes than Greimel. Gupta is an entrepreneur and the brother of CNN correspondent Sanjay Gupta. He had the support of 314 Action, which backs candidates with scientific backgrounds. Another former Obama administration official, Fayrouz Saad, was fourth with just under 20 percent. She sought the support of the party's progressive wing and was endorsed by the Bernie Sanders-aligned Justice Democrats and Democracy for America.

Donald Trump (R) and Mitt Romney (R) carried Michigan's 11th in 2016 and 2012, respectively, but Barack Obama won here in 2008, and three election forecasters have rated it as a Toss-up in November. Also, the leading four Democratic candidates in this field all said they would oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader if elected.[54]

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

  • Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
  • The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org with your own suggestions.

Footnotes

  1. ↑ Alexandria for NY-14, "Home," accessed June 27, 2018
  2. ↑ Roll Call, "Six Who Could Succeed Pelosi — Someday," June 28, 2017
  3. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "New York - House District 14," accessed May 30, 2018
  4. ↑ Alexandria for NY-14, "Issues," accessed May 30, 2018
  5. ↑ Alexandria for NY-14, "Endorsements," accessed May 30, 2018
  6. ↑ Crowley for Congress, "Endorsements," accessed May 29, 2018
  7. ↑ Queens Chronicle, "Ocasio-Cortez on the ballot in NY-14," updated May 17, 2018
  8. ↑ The Intercept, "A Primary Against the Machine: A Bronx Activist Looks to Dethrone Joseph Crowley, The King of Queens," May 22, 2018
  9. ↑ Florida Politics, "Gwen Graham’s politics molded by father, Florida life," May 2, 2017
  10. ↑ Sun Sentinel, "Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine is Florida's newest candidate for governor," November 1, 2017
  11. ↑ Politico, "Graham’s potential ‘game change’: abortion rights and gender," July 15, 2018
  12. ↑ Florida Politics, "Philip Levine pumps another $2.6M into Gov. campaign," July 30, 2018
  13. ↑ Philip Levine for Governor, "Philip’s Priorities," accessed July 30, 2018
  14. ↑ Florida Politics, "Jeff Greene plows $3M more into gubernatorial bid," July 28, 2018
  15. ↑ Politico, "Billionaire Jeff Greene files to run for Florida governor," June 4, 2018
  16. ↑ Florida Politics, "Jeff Greene says Democratic opponents ‘not electable,’ generate ‘no excitement.’" July 9, 2018
  17. ↑ Miami Herald, "As feud with Graham escalates, Greene says he’s sold off oil and energy investments," August 8, 2018
  18. ↑ Sun-Sentinel, "Democratic governor candidates face off in South Florida debate," June 11, 2018
  19. ↑ 19.0 19.1 Tallahassee Democrat, "Eye on 2018: Governor's race shaping up with an X factor on both sides," November 4, 2017
  20. ↑ The Hill, "House Democrats add seven candidates to 'Red-to-Blue' program," January 10, 2018
  21. ↑ Kara Eastman, "Issues," accessed February 2, 2018
  22. ↑ Nebraska Secretary of State, "Unofficial Results: Primary Election - May 15, 2018," accessed May 17, 2018
  23. ↑ Twitter, "Kyle Kondik," accessed May 16, 2018
  24. ↑ NRCC "About," accessed May 30, 2016
  25. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "NRCC—Statement of Organization," March 28, 2017
  26. ↑ Chicago Tribune, "2018 Illinois results," accessed April 2, 2018
  27. ↑ 27.0 27.1 The Intercept, "A Primary Challenge To A Right-Wing Democrat In Illinois Divides The Resistance," December 12, 2017 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "INT" defined multiple times with different content
  28. ↑ "Daily Southtown," 'Column: Lipinski says record shows his support for birth control funds, August 17, 2017
  29. ↑ The Kansas City Star, "Could 2018 be the year Democrats in Kansas start a comeback?," November 7, 2017
  30. ↑ The Kansas City Star, Emily’s List endorses another Dem in Kansas’ 3rd District after first candidate drops out," May 23rd, 2018
  31. ↑ 50 States of Blue, "Sharice Davids could be the first Native American woman in Congress," March 8, 2018
  32. ↑ Autostraddle, "Every Lesbian, Bisexual, Queer And/Or Trans Woman Running for US Office in 2018," May 7, 2018
  33. ↑ Bret Welder for Congress, "Issues," accessed June 14, 2018
  34. ↑ The Intercept, "Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Bernie Sanders are trying to prove their case in Kansas," July 17, 2018
  35. ↑ Colorado Election Results, "June 26, 2018 Primary Election," accessed June 27, 2018
  36. ↑ Polis for Colorado, "Home," accessed June 14, 2018
  37. ↑ Cary Kennedy for Governor, "Why I'm Running," accessed June 14, 2018
  38. ↑ Mike Johnston for Colorado, "Home," accessed June 14, 2018
  39. ↑ Lynne for Colorado, "Home," accessed June 14, 2018
  40. ↑ StarTribune, "Faith group backs Rep. Erin Murphy as Tim Walz also scrambles for delegates," May 31, 2018
  41. ↑ St. Peter Herald, "Gubernatorial endorsements reveal growing rift on both sides," June 6, 2018
  42. ↑ KSTP, "Education Minnesota Endorses Tim Walz for Governor," June 1, 2018
  43. ↑ CBS Minnesota, "AG Lori Swanson Pulls Out Of Fight For DFL Endorsement," June 2, 2018
  44. ↑ Twin Cities Pioneer Press, "Attorney General Lori Swanson, Rep. Rick Nolan join up governor run, a day before filing deadline," June 4, 2018
  45. ↑ Lexington Herald-Leader, "Lexington Mayor Jim Gray running for Congress," December 5, 2017
  46. ↑ The Hill, "Seven primary races to watch in 2018," December 25, 2017
  47. ↑ Vox, "This Democrat thinks she can win in 'Trump country' Kentucky," January 17, 2018
  48. ↑ Southern Political Report, "Kentucky: Democrats vie to take on Barr," April 2, 2018
  49. ↑ Daily Kos, "Presidential Election Results by Congressional District," accessed January 11, 2018
  50. ↑ Daily Kos, "The most vulnerable House members of 2018, in two charts," January 14, 2018
  51. ↑ FEC, "Virginia - House District 10," accessed May 16, 2018
  52. ↑ Virginia Department of Elections, "2018 June Democratic Primary-Unofficial Results," accessed June 13, 2018
  53. ↑ DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  54. ↑ Detroit News, "Dems in 11th District congressional primary ready to boot Pelosi," July 31, 2018
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