Ballotpedia's Top 10 Democratic primaries, June 14, 2018

We’ve identified these 10 primaries as the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Our list includes some primary elections that have already taken place, if those contests were especially noteworthy. Click here for more on how we build this list.

As of June 14, 2018, this list contains primaries for five governor’s races and five U.S. House seats. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Click here to subscribe to The Heart of the Primaries, our free weekly newsletter, for updates on these races and others like them up and down the ballot and across the country.

Click here to read our Top 10 Republican Party primaries list.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: June 14, 2018

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Top 10 Democratic Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (-) Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)
2. (-) Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)
3. (-) Florida governor (August 28)
4. (-) Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)
5. (-) Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (May 22)
6. (-) Colorado governor (June 26)
7. (-) Minnesota governor (August 14) - newly added
8. (-) Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District (May 15)
9. (-) New York governor (September 13)
10. (-) Georgia governor (May 22)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

California's 25th Congressional District (June 5)

Top 10 Democratic Primaries race summaries

• Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District (May 15)

See also: Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)

Moderates and progressives clashed in the Democratic primary for Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District on May 15, where nonprofit executive and Metropolitan Community College board member Kara Eastman defeated the district’s former congressman, Brad Ashford. Ashford, who held the seat for a single term before losing his re-election bid to current incumbent Rep. Don Bacon (R), had the backing of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which added him to its “Red to Blue” list. The Progressive Change Campaign Committee backed Eastman. She also had the support of local unions and state figures such as state Sens. Tony Vargas and Justin Wayne. Eastman ran on a platform that included tuition-free college and universal healthcare.

Eastman defeated Ashford by just over 1,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent. While progressive groups celebrated Eastman's victory, political observers questioned whether her victory hurt Dems' chances to win the seat. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik tweeted after the primary that they were changing the rating on the general election race in this district from "Toss-up" to "Leans Republican" after Eastman’s victory. “Basically the NRCC got what it wanted and the DCCC didn't,” Kondik said. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) is a national 527 group and subsidiary of the Republican Party that aims to build and maintain a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives through contributions to Republican candidates and political organizations. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is a similar group which supports the Democratic Party.

• Illinois' 3rd Congressional District (March 20)

See also: Illinois' 3rd Congressional District election (March 20, 2018 Democratic primary)

Longtime incumbent Rep. and Blue Dog Coalition member Daniel Lipinski (D) faced political newcomer Marie Newman for the Democratic nomination in Illinois’ 3rd Congressional District for a seat held by the party since 1975. This race, called "a battle for the soul of the Democratic party” by Kate Sweeny of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee, was seen as a good example of the struggle between moderate and progressive Democrats.

Lipinski defeated Newman by just over 2,100 votes, 51 percent to 49 percent.

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Democratic primary)

A four-way primary battle has emerged as Florida Democrats look to take back the governor's office for the first time in 20 years. With Gov. Rick Scott (R) term-limited and most election ratings outlets calling the general election a "Toss-up," the winner of the primary may very well go on to occupy the governor's mansion in 2019. Although the filing deadline isn't until June 22nd, several prominent candidates have begun fundraising and campaigning.

Former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham, the daughter of former Gov. and U.S. Sen. Bob Graham, represents the moderate wing of the Democratic Party and often crossed party lines while in the U.S. House. Former Miami Beach Mayor Philip Levine brought in over $10 million through March 2018, partially through self-funding, and describes himself as a "radical centrist." Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum enjoys significant support among minority voters. Gillum has touted his support from grassroots activists and received a boost from billionaire Democratic donor George Soros. Businessman Christopher King has not previously held elected office, but describes himself as a "progressive entrepreneur" who enjoys support from younger voters. Former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D), who explored running for this seat with Republican David Jolly as his lieutenant governor, declined to run and instead backed Graham.

• Virginia's 10th Congressional District (June 12)

See also: Virginia's 10th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Democratic primary)

Six well-funded candidates competed in the Democratic primary for Virginia's 10th Congressional District—a swing seat that simultaneously backed Hillary Clinton (D) by 10 points in the 2016 presidential election and elected Republican incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock. Daily Kos identified Comstock as the eighth-most vulnerable Republican incumbent in the 2018 midterm elections, and it's likely Democrats had to win districts like this one to gain enough seats to win control of the House. Four candidates raised $800,000 or more through the first quarter of 2018: former senior State Department official Alison Kiehl Friedman (D), state Sen. Jennifer Wexton (D), Army veteran Daniel Helmer (D), and former Obama administration official Lindsey Davis Stover.

Wexton received about 42 percent of the vote to win the primary. Friedman finished second with 23 percent, and Stover was third with 16 percent. The general election contest between Comstock and Wexton figures to be one of the most closely watched House races of this cycle.

• Kentucky's 6th Congressional District (May 22)

See also: Kentucky's 6th Congressional District election (May 22, 2018 Democratic primary)

Style, not policy, separated Lexington Mayor Jim Gray and Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath as they competed for the Democratic nod in Kentucky’s 6th District. Both were ideologically moderate, said they might oppose Nancy Pelosi as House Democratic leader, and each said they would work with President Donald Trump on specific issues. Gray was encouraged to run by the DCCC and suggested he would self-fund his campaign, if necessary. McGrath achieved national fame with campaign videos highlighting her military experience and used that fame to build a national fundraising network. McGrath portrayed Gray as the party’s choice for the seat and herself as the outsider.

While Republican incumbent Andy Barr (R) won re-election in 2016 by more than 20 points, forecasters rate the general election as "Leans Republican." McGrath defeated Gray and four other candidates to win the Democratic primary, taking 49 percent of the vote.

• Colorado governor (June 26)

See also: Colorado gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (June 26 Democratic primary)

Four candidates are vying to succeed term-limited Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) for this purple state's highest office. Rep. Jared Polis and former state Treasurer Cary Kennedy were the top two candidates according to an independent poll conducted in late March 2018. At the state party convention on April 14, 2018, Kennedy was backed by 62 percent of delegates, while Polis received the support of 33 percent. Since Kennedy received the most delegate votes, her name appeared first on the primary election ballot. The winner of the June 26 primary faces a competitive general election characterized by ratings outlets as either "Leans Democratic" or "Toss-up." Colorado has voted for the Democratic nominee in each of the last three presidential elections. While a late May 2018 poll suggested that Polis was the front-runner, it also noted a large number of undecided voters.

• Minnesota governor (August 14)

A three-way battle for the Democratic nomination to succeed outgoing Minnesota Governor Mark Dayton (D) unfolded in Minnesota as state Rep. Erin Murphy, Rep. Tim Walz, and state Attorney General Lori Swanson sought the party's nod. Murphy earned the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party of Minnesota's endorsement at its annual convention, defeating Walz and state Auditor Rebecca Otto (D), who suspended her campaign. She has served in the state House since 2006 and has held various leadership positions within the DFL caucus since 2013.

Walz has represented the Republican-leaning 1st Congressional District since 2007. Walz's history of representing this swing district was mentioned as a factor in his loss of the DFL endorsement by Dana Melius of the St. Peter Herald. He is backed by Education Minnesota, the state's largest labor union. Swanson was serving her third term as attorney general, having been first elected in 2006. Swanson withdrew from the nominating process for attorney general at the 2018 convention after the first round of voting, launching a campaign for governor the day before the filing deadline with Rep. Rick Nolan (D) as her running mate.

• Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District (May 15)

See also: Pennsylvania's 7th Congressional District election (May 15, 2018 Democratic primary)

The top three Democratic candidates who ran for Pennsylvania’s new 7th Congressional District represented competing wings of the party and had diverging views on which policies to emphasize in order to win the Allentown-based swing district in November. This district was redrawn in February 2018 after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court ruled that the Pennsylvania congressional map was illegal. Hillary Clinton carried the area making up the new District by 1.1 percentage points in 2016, making it a possible Democratic pickup in November. This district replaced the Allentown-based 15th District previously represented by Charlie Dent (R), who did not run for re-election.

Former Allentown Solicitor Susan Wild beat Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli and Pastor Greg Edwards to win the Democratic primary in Pennsylvania’s 7th District. Wild won roughly 33 percent of the vote, while Northampton County District Attorney John Morganelli took about 30 percent and Pastor Greg Edwards received nearly 26 percent. The three candidates represented different wings of the Democratic Party. Wild fit into the mainline Democratic Party and was backed by EMILY’s List. Morganelli was more conservative and opposed abortion and sanctuary jurisdictions. Edwards was a progressive endorsed by Bernie Sanders.

• New York governor (September 13)

See also: New York gubernatorial election, 2018 (September 13 Democratic primary)

Incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo faced a primary challenge from former 'Sex and the City' actress Cynthia Nixon. Progressives are lining up behind Nixon, who has sharply criticized Cuomo for what she frames as his shortcomings on the New York subway system, affordable housing, and renewable energy. She supports the legalization of marijuana. Nixon claims Cuomo has allowed Republicans to control the state Senate since 2012 by empowering the Independent Democratic Conference (IDC) and generally supports fiscally conservative policies. She is backed by the Working Families Party, Democracy for America, and Our Revolution.

Cuomo, who is a possible 2020 presidential contender, has the support of the state and national Democratic establishment. Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, and DNC Chairman Tom Perez endorsed him, and he received the support of 95 percent of the delegates to New York's Democratic Convention. As of the end of May 2018, he had over $30 million in campaign funds available. New York was won by the Democratic candidate in each of the previous five presidential elections.

• Georgia governor (May 22)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Democratic primary)

Former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams defeated former state Rep. Stacey Evans by a more than 50-point margin to win the Georgia Democratic gubernatorial nomination. In a state where voters have not elected a Democratic governor since 1998, Abrams and Evans defined their campaigns by how they planned to compete in the general election. Abrams' approach was to mobilize black voters who do not normally turn out in nonpresidential election years alongside white liberals. Evans' strategy was to appeal to white moderates who lived in suburban and rural areas and maybe even voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.

The candidates generally agreed on policy, but they criticized each other over past votes on the HOPE Scholarship, gun policy, and state takeovers of failing school districts. Abrams faced the winner of the Republican primary runoff between Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp.

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

• Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
• The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

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