Ballotpedia's Top 10 Republican primaries, July 26, 2018

These 10 Republican Party primaries are the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Click here for more on how we build this list.

The number two race on our Top 10 Republican primaries list for the last few weeks, the Georgia gubernatorial election between Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp, was decided in a runoff on July 24. Kemp won with 69 percent of the vote after being endorsed by both President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence in the week before the runoff. Kemp's victory sets up a general election match-up against former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in November.

The lone addition to our list this week is the contest for the party's nod for the open seat in Michigan's 11th Congressional District. In the last three presidential elections, voters in the district backed Donald Trump (R), Mitt Romney (R), and Barack Obama (D) and three election forecasters have rated it as a Toss-up in November. State Sen. Mike Kowall is the choice of the local Republican establishment according to the Detroit Free Press and would likely be ideologically similar to retiring incumbent David Trott. Businesswoman Lena Epstein was a co-chair of Trump’s 2016 Michigan campaign and has aligned herself closely to the president’s agenda. State Rep. Klint Kesto headed up the state House's response to revelations that Dr. Larry Nassar sexually abused hundreds of gymnasts while working at Michigan State University and emphasized his support for repealing the Affordable Care Act and defunding Planned Parenthood. Former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio and former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski are also running in this five-candidate field.

As of July 26, 2018, this list contains primaries for four U.S House seats, three U.S Senate seats, two gubernatorial races, and one attorney general contest. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Click here to read our Top 10 Democratic Party primaries list.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: July 26, 2018

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Top 10 Republican Primaries Ranked list

(Last week's ranking in parentheses)

1. (1) Arizona Senate (August 28)
2. (2) Georgia governor (May 22) & runoff (July 24)
3. (3) South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)
4. (4) Florida governor (August 28)
5. (8) West Virginia Senate (May 8)
6. (9) Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)
7. (7) Montana Senate (June 5)
8. (5) Alabama attorney general (June 5) & runoff (July 17)
9. (6) Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7) - newly added
10. (10) Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

Races removed from the Top 10 list this week

Virginia Senate (June 12)

Top 10 Republican Primaries race summaries

• Arizona Senate (August 28)

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) announced in October 2017 that he would not seek re-election, which initiated a high-profile campaign to succeed him as the Republican nominee. There are three candidates: Rep. Martha McSally, Dr. Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. All have expressed strong support for President Donald Trump. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is the likely candidate awaiting the winner of this primary, seeking to become the first Democrat to occupy a U.S. Senate seat in the state for more than 20 years. Ratings outlets characterized the general election as a Toss-up. Two June polls found that at least 20 percent of likely Republican primary voters in the state were undecided in this raceat that time.

Party leaders and big donors in the state support McSally. The newly created DefendArizona has already reserved $5 million in ad time for the general election for McSally and the Senate Leadership Fund could become involved in the primary again—the organization spent five figures on an online campaign against Ward in 2017—to help secure McSally's victory. Ward has criticized McSally’s cosponsorship of an immigration measure that would have allowed a pathway to citizenship for individuals brought into the U.S. illegally as minors, comparing it to her “pro-border, pro-law" platform. Arpaio, who has his own conservative base of followers, has also emphasized his support for the president. Trump pardoned Arpaio in 2017 after he was convicted of criminal contempt for refusing to stop conduct in the sheriff’s office found to be discriminatory. Arpaio also wants to take his strict position on immigration enforcement to Washington, D.C.

• Georgia governor (May 22) and runoff (July 24)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary) and Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (July 24 Republican primary runoff)

Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle and Secretary of State Brian Kemp were the top-two finishers in a five-candidate Republican primary on May 22. Cagle led the field with 39 percent of the vote and Kemp was second with 25.5 percent. Because no candidate reached 50 percent, the two will face off in a July 24 runoff. Cagle consistently led in polling before May 22, leaving Kemp and former state Sen. Hunter Hill to battle for the second position in the runoff. According to Greg Bluestein of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Cagle decided that he would rather face Kemp in the runoff, so he directed his campaign attacks against Hill in the final weeks of the campaign. Hill finished in third place with 18.3 percent of the vote. The candidates attacked each other over policy disputes, personal ethics, and professional competence.

Secretary of State Brian Kemp defeated Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle in the July 24 Republican runoff for Georgia's governorship, receiving 69 percent of the vote. President Donald Trump endorsed Kemp on July 18, and Vice President Mike Pence campaigned for him on July 21. The three Republican candidates who did not advance from the May 22 Republican primary—Hunter Hill, Clay Tippins, and Michael Williams—also endorsed Kemp. Term-limited incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal (R) endorsed Cagle on July 16, saying he was the best candidate to continue his legacy as governor. Cagle argued he was the only candidate who could beat Abrams in the general election.Kemp faced former state House Minority Leader Stacey Abrams (D) in the general election to replace Deal. Abrams is the first female gubernatorial nominee in Georgia history and the first black female gubernatorial nominee in U.S. history.

Cagle aired campaign ads drawing attention to Kemp’s record and calling him incompetent. Cagle said Kemp was responsible for the accidental release of Georgia voter data to media outlets in 2015, did not repay loans he guaranteed for an agricultural company, accepted illegal campaign contributions from businesses he regulated, and was not a vocal supporter of Donald Trump in 2016. Before the May primary, Cagle primarily emphasized his record as lieutenant governor and plans to cut taxes and create jobs. Kemp criticized Cagle after Clay Tippins, one of the candidates defeated in the May 22 primary, released a secretly-recorded conversation with Cagle. In the recording, Cagle said he pushed for passage of an education bill he opposed to reduce the chance fellow candidate Hunter Hill (R) would receive financial support from a pro-school choice group. Kemp also said that Cagle was mostly funded by special interest groups and lobbyists, improperly used a state airplane at taxpayer expense, and would try to legalize casino gambling if elected governor. During the primary campaign, Kemp said he wanted to put Georgia's focus on the needs of the rural parts of the state rather than metro Atlanta, and his ads emphasized his positions on immigration and gun policy.

• South Carolina's 1st Congressional District (June 12)

See also South Carolina's 1st Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Mark Sanford became the second Republican member of the U.S. House to lose his primary in 2018 after he was defeated by state Rep. Katie Arrington by a four percent margin in South Carolina's 1st Congressional District. Support for President Donald Trump (R) was one of the defining issues of the race. Sanford had been critical of Trump's rhetoric and policies, including Trump's policies on tariffs and trade, and Arrington used those comments as part of her campaigning strategy in the primary. Arrington was endorsed by Trump just hours before polls closed on June 12.

In his concession speech, Sanford said he didn't regret his positions regarding Trump: "It may have cost me an election in this case, but I stand by every one of those decisions to disagree with the president." The risks of opposing Trump were evident to other Republicans after Sanford's loss. Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) said, "I think it's quite obvious that people don't like, you know, when somebody's overly critical of the President. I thought Mark was very principled. But you know, it will be interesting to see what it comes down to ultimately." Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-GA) stated that perhaps the issue was Sanford's criticism being so public, "I have some differences with the way we're handling tariffs, but I haven't gone out and aired those differences to the media first. I go to the White House, and there's been an open door and a dialogue going on." Outgoing Arizona Sen. Flake, who had also criticized the president publicly, stated, "This is Trump's party. We've all felt it. It was reiterated last night. If you want to win a Republican primary, you can't deviate much from the script. It's the President's script. You can't criticize policy or behavior."

• Florida governor (August 28)

See also: Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (August 28 Republican primary)

The two leading contenders for the Republican nomination for governor in this large swing state adopted different campaign approaches and targeted two different segments of the expected primary electorate. Current incumbent Gov. Rick Scott (R) is term-limited and is running for the U.S. Senate. Rep. Ron DeSantis represented Florida's 6th Congressional District, which includes St. Augustine and Daytona Beach, since the 2012 election. In December 2017, he received an endorsement from President Trump DeSantis was the third candidate running for governor in 2018 to receive the president's endorsement, following Henry McMaster (R-SC) and Brian Calley (R-MI). DeSantis "has done very little public campaigning in Florida", having instead "hit on another strategy that political experts say exposes him to many of the most loyal Republican primary voters while masking his inexperience in state matters: Fox News", according to the Daytona Beach News-Journal. According to the News-Journal, DeSantis had appeared on Fox News 15 times during the first two months of 2018.

Agriculture Commissioner Adam Putnam raised $4.1 million via his campaign and nearly $20 million via his Florida Grown PAC by the end of January 2018. Putnam was first elected as agriculture commissioner in 2010 after serving five terms in the U.S. House of Representatives and two in the Florida House of Representatives. He "has been viewed as a moderate Republican, one of [sic] who has made a career of politics", according to Politico. On the campaign trail, Putnam has emphasized his connections to the state, saying that he is a fifth-generation Floridian who knows the state well. Two polls conducted in June showed Putnam with a double-digit lead over DeSantis, but over 40 percent of those surveyed were undecided.

• West Virginia Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in West Virginia (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

State Attorney General Patrick Morrisey (R) defeated coal mining executive Don Blankenship (R), Rep. Evan Jenkins (R), and three other candidates for the Republican nomination for the U.S. Senate seat in West Virginia. Morrisey received 35 percent of the vote, while Jenkins finished second with 29 percent, and Blankenship was third with 20 percent. The top three candidates all touted their support of Trump and alignment with the President's agenda.

Satellite groups spent more than $4 million on the race, including Mountain Families PAC and Duty and Country PAC, which have ties to the Republican and Democratic national parties, respectively. Blankenship, who served a year in prison for conspiring to violate federal mine safety standards, spent more than $3 million of his own money in the race.

Republicans considered the Senate race in West Virginia one of the party’s best opportunities to change a seat from Democratic to Republican control. Donald Trump (R) defeated Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election here by 42 points—the largest margin of victory in any state. Morrisey, who unseated five-term incumbent state attorney general Darrell McGraw (D) in 2012, faced Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in November.

• Minnesota's 1st Congressional District (August 14)

See also Minnesota's 1st Congressional District election (August 14, 2018 Republican primary)

In the first open race for this seat since 2006, the Republican Party is lining up behind two candidates—2016 nominee Jim Hagedorn (R) and state Sen. Carla Nelson (R)—naming them both to the National Republican Congressional Committee’s “Contenders” program. Although the district went for President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election by 15 points, the Democratic incumbent held on to his seat by less than a percentage point. Daily Kos identified this district as the most vulnerable Democratic House seat.

Hagedorn lost to incumbent Rep. Tim Walz (D) by less than 2,500 votes in 2016, and Walz elected to run for governor this cycle. Making his fourth attempt for the seat, Hagedorn has compared himself to Reps. John Kline (R-Minn.) and Collin Peterson (D-Minn.), who each ran three or more times before being elected in the state. He has aligned himself with Trump and emphasized the farming economy, energy, and national security in his campaign. He also earned the district party’s endorsements at its convention in April.

Nelson, who has served in the state Senate since 2011, was endorsed by the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List and reportedly encouraged to run for the seat by national party leaders. State party officials were less supportive, concerned they could lose control of the state Senate if a special election was called to fill her seat in a toss-up district. Nelson's campaign has focused on healthcare, the federal budget, and education policies.

• Montana Senate (June 5)

See also: United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

State Auditor Matt Rosendale won the GOP Senate nomination to take on Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in November. Rosendale was backed by several prominent conservatives, including the Club for Growth, U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) and the Senate Conservatives Fund. Former state judge Russ Fagg, who billed himself as a center-right Republican with deep ties to the state, finished second in the primary. Fagg had endorsements from three former Montana governors—Judy Martz, Marc Racicot, and Stan Stephens, and said his pragmatism and state ties made him the most electable candidate. Also running were Troy Downing, a largely self-funded businessman, and state Sen. Albert Olszewski, who finished third and fourth, respectively.

Although the candidates generally focused on Tester rather than each other for much of the primary, Fagg attacked Rosendale for moving to Montana from Maryland to start a political career and criticized him for opposing the death penalty and being endorsed by Steve Bannon. The Club for Growth countered those attacks by spending over $1 million attacking Fagg. Rosendale also said his support from national conservatives made him the most likely Republican to defeat Tester. Tester is thought to be one of the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents after Donald Trump won Montana by 20 points in the 2016 presidential election. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018.

• Alabama attorney general (June 5)

See also: Alabama Attorney General election, 2018 (June 5 Republican primary) and Alabama Attorney General election, 2018 (July 17 Republican primary runoff)

Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) ran for a full term for this position after being appointed in 2017. He joined Alabama Governor Kay Ivey (R) and South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster (R) as Republican state executives in the South running for a first full term after being appointed to office, and he faced multiple Republican primary challengers. No candidate received a majority of the vote in the June 5 primary. Marshall received 28.4 percent of the vote, while former Attorney General Troy King took 28.0 percent. Both candidates advanced to a primary runoff election on July 17th. Neither Alice Martin nor Chess Bedsole, who finished third and fourth in the primary, endorsed a candidate in the runoff.

Marshall was appointed attorney general in February 2017 by then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) following Luther Strange's (R) resignation to accept a seat in the U.S. Senate. Marshall emphasized his achievements since taking office on the campaign trail, touting his office's policy initiatives on opioids and violent crime as well as litigation concerning immigration and firearms regulations. King was state attorney general from 2004 until 2011 and lost to Strange in the 2010 Republican primary. King cast his run for office as a second chance, saying that "I know a lot more now than I did seven years ago." King's campaign referred to his campaign slogan Take Alabama Back, emphasizing King's challenge to corruption, violent crime, and the political establishment.

Less than three weeks after the primary, Marshall's wife, Bridgette, died. In a June 29 press conference, Marshall disclosed that his wife had struggled with depression, anxiety, and chronic pain. Both Marshall and King suspended their campaigns following her death. King resumed his campaign on June 30, while Marshall resumed his on July 5. On July 9, 2018, King filed a complaint with the Alabama Ethics Commission against Marshall alleging that Marshall received illegal campaign contributions from the Republican Attorneys General Association (RAGA). The ethics complaint alleges that these contributions were in violation of state law since RAGA's political action committee (PAC) had received contributions from other PACs before it contributed to the Marshall campaign. King's complaint also called for criminal charges against leading members of the Marshall campaign and the national RAGA organization. In response to a June 2018 column on this issue published in AL.com, the Marshall campaign stated that the Alabama law prohibiting PAC-to-PAC transfers did not apply to federal PACs, citing documents published by the office of the Alabama Secretary of State.

In the runoff, Marshall defeated King, receiving 62 percent of the vote.

• Michigan's 11th Congressional District (August 7)

See also Michigan's 11th Congressional District election (August 7, 2018 Republican primary)

Michigan Republicans decided on August 7 who gives them the best chance of winning the suburban Detroit seat being vacated by David Trott (R). State Sen. Mike Kowall is the choice of the local Republican establishment according to the Detroit Free Press and would likely be ideologically similar to Trott, one of the more moderate House Republicans. Kowall supported a pathway to citizenship for children who entered the country without legal permission that is not tied to President Trump’s border wall and further limits on legal immigration. However, Kowall trails two more conservative candidates in fundraising.

Businesswoman Lena Epstein has mostly self-funded her campaign. With $1.5 million total, she leads the next highest fundraising candidate by about $1.25 million. Epstein was a co-chair of Trump’s 2016 Michigan campaign and has aligned herself closely to the president’s agenda. State Rep. Klint Kesto emphasized his support for repealing the Affordable Care Act, defunding Planned Parenthood, abolishing sanctuary jurisdictions, ending corporate subsidies, and increasing investments in the military and veterans. He also headed up the state House's effort to respond to revelations that Dr. Larry Nassar sexually abused hundreds of gymnasts while working at Michigan State University. Former Congressman Kerry Bentivolio and former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski are also running in this five-candidate field. Donald Trump (R) and Mitt Romney (R) carried the district in 2016 and 2012, respectively, but Barack Obama won here in 2008, and three election forecasters have rated it as a Toss-up in November.

• Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Nine Republican candidates battled to replace former Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R), who resigned from office in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) received the most political and financial support, but State Sen. Kevin Bacon (R), former Air Force intelligence officer Tim Kane (R), and prosecutor Carol O'Brien (R) were also competitive in fundraising.

Balderson received Tiberi's endorsement, as well as a $240,000 cable and digital ad buy from Defending Main Street in April 2018. Leneghan was backed by the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and House Freedom Action, the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus, which supported her with a $187,000 ad campaign. Club for Growth spent $150,000 on an ad alleging that Balderson voted to support the Affordable Care Act in Ohio, which the Balderson campaign called a "blatant falsehood" since the state Senate did not directly vote on the expansion of Medicaid.

Balderson finished ahead of Leneghan by about 650 votes to win this primary, 29 percent to 28 percent. He faced Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D), who won the Democratic primary, in the special election for this seat on August 7, 2018.

Methodology

Our seat rankings reflect a subjective assessment, based primarily on two factors:

• Whether the nature or result of a primary provides an indication as to the direction of the party or the relative strength of various factions within the party in that state or district,
• The extent to which the outcome of a primary impacts the party’s chances for that seat in the November elections.

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