Ballotpedia's Top 10 Republican primaries, May 17, 2018

Our updated list of this year’s Top 10 Republican primaries features the Georgia gubernatorial primary that was held on May 22nd. Six Republicans vied to replace Georgia’s term-limited Governor, Nathan Deal (R), including Lieutenant Governor Casey Cagle, Secretary of State Brian Kemp, former state Sen. Hunter Hill, state Sen. Michael Williams, and businessman Clay Tippins. With so many prominent candidates, it seems likely this primary will be decided in a July 24th runoff. Five more Top 10 Republican primaries will take place during June, including U.S. Senate primaries in Montana and Virginia.

We’ve identified these 10 primaries as the most compelling intra-party contests of this cycle, either because they reflect an ideological battle between two factions within the party or a close primary contest in a battleground election. Furthermore, our lists include some primary elections that have already taken place, as there have been some contests where either the outcome or nature of the race was especially noteworthy for the Republican Party. All in all, the list contains primaries for one governor’s race, five U.S. Senate seats, three U.S. House seats, and the battle for state attorney general in Alabama. We'll be updating this throughout the primary election season as the year progresses.

Click here to subscribe to The Heart of the Primaries, our free weekly newsletter, for updates on these races and others like them up and down the ballot and across the country. Learn about policy differences between candidates, which donor groups are behind which candidates (and why!), moves by political operatives, polling, endorsements, and more.

Know of a race that belongs on our list? Email us at editor@ballotpedia.org.
Last updated: May 17, 2018

June 14 list →

Top 10 Republican Primaries

Races listed in alphabetical order by state

• Alabama Attorney General (June 5)

See also: Alabama Attorney General election, 2018 (June 5 Republican primary)

Incumbent Steve Marshall (R) was appointed in February 2017 after then-Gov. Robert Bentley (R) appointed then-attorney general Luther Strange (R) to fill the U.S. Senate seat of U.S. Attorney General Jeff Sessions (R). Three candidates challenged Marshall's bid for a full term: former Donald Trump Alabama campaign manager Chess Bedsole, former state attorney general Troy King (who lost to Strange in the 2010 attorney general primary election), and former Chief Deputy Attorney General Alice Martin (R). Some political insiders in Alabama think that this contest was more compelling than the open seat race for governor in the state.

• Arizona Senate (August 28)

See also: United States Senate election in Arizona (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Sen. Jeff Flake (R) announced in October 2017 that he would not seek re-election, which initiated a high-profile campaign to succeed him as the Republican nominee. Three candidates have emerged as front-runners in the seven-person field: Rep. Martha McSally, Dr. Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio. All three have expressed strong support for President Donald Trump. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema (D) is the likely candidate awaiting the winner of this primary, seeking to become the first Democrat to occupy a U.S. Senate seat in the state for more than 20 years. Ratings outlets characterized the general election as a Toss-up.

• Colorado's 5th Congressional District (June 26)

See also: Colorado's 5th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Doug Lamborn faced multiple challenges in seeking his seventh term in Congress. His re-election bid was initially blocked by the Colorado Supreme Court on April 23 after a lawsuit was filed by district voters regarding the residency of the people gathering signatures for his nominating petitions. That ruling was overturned on May 1 by U.S. District Court Judge Philip Brimmer, which put Lamborn back on the ballot.

Lamborn also had four primary challengers in this solidly-Republican district, including 2016 GOP U.S. Senate nominee Darryl Glenn, state Sen. Owen Hill (R), Bill Rhea, and former Green Mountain Falls mayor Tyler Stevens. Glenn, in particular, has significant statewide prominence after he came within six percentage points of unseating incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet (D) last cycle, despite being outraised and outspent by Bennet four-to-one

• Georgia governor (May 22)

See also: Georgia gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 22 Republican primary)

A crowded Republican field has emerged in the race to replace term-limited Gov. Nathan Deal (R), who has been in office since 2011. Lieutenant Gov. Casey Cagle (R) leads in fundraising with nearly $7 million in contributions and has led every public poll through April 2018. However, Cagle has not yet polled higher than 50 percent, the vote percentage necessary to avoid a July 24 runoff.

Secretary of State Brian Kemp and state Sen. Hunter Hill have raised more than $2 million and have alternated between second and third place in polling. Kemp touts his support for Donald Trump's agenda, particularly on immigration. Hill, who was endorsed by U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), emphasizes his background as a U.S. Army Ranger and his support for abolishing the state income tax and loosening gun regulations. State Sen. Michael Williams is running on a pro-Trump platform and has put $1.5 million of his own money into the race. Businessman Clay Tippins has raised more than $2 million and calls himself the outsider candidate.

• Indiana Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in Indiana (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

An aggressive contest occurred in this Republican primary, in part because the race, as described by Politico, was "possibly the GOP’s best opportunity to seize a Senate seat from Democrats in next year’s midterms." Reps. Todd Rokita (R) and Luke Messer (R) were congressional colleagues, while former State Rep. Mike Braun (R) self-funded his campaign. The three candidates accused one another of disloyalty to President Donald Trump (R) and the Republican Party, ethics violations, and state residency issues. All aligned themselves with the Trump administration and agenda.

Braun won this primary with 41 percent of the vote, while Rokita and Messer received 30 percent and 29 percent, respectively. Braun faced incumbent freshman Sen. Joe Donnelly (D) in the general election in November.

• Montana Senate (June 5)

See also: United States Senate election in Montana (June 5, 2018 Republican primary)

Four Republican candidates are trying to convince primary voters they are best suited to challenge incumbent Jon Tester (D) for one of Montana's U.S. senate seats. Tester is thought to be one of the most vulnerable Senate Democratic incumbents after Donald Trump won Montana by 20 points in the 2016 presidential election. CNN listed this seat among 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to flip in 2018. The four challengers are State Auditor Matt Rosendale, who is backed by national Tea Party figures and organizations; Russ Fagg, a former state judge who bills himself as a center-right conservative Republican with deep ties to the state; Troy Downing, a largely self-funded businessman; and state Sen. Albert Olszewski.

Rosendale has the support of U.S. Sens. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Mike Lee (R-Utah), and Rand Paul (R-Ky.) as well as organizations like the Club for Growth and the Senate Conservatives Fund. He has argued that his national support makes him the most likely Republican to defeat Tester in the general election and he has led in all publicly released polls in the race. Fagg picked up endorsements from three former Montana governors—Judy Martz, Marc Racicot, and Stan Stephens. He said that his pragmatic approach to politics and his ties to the state make him the most electable general election candidate against Tester. Downing and Olszewski trail Fagg and Rosendale in endorsements but both have shown a willingness to spend their own funds in the race.

• New York's 11th Congressional District (June 26)

See also New York's 11th Congressional District election (June 26, 2018 Republican primary)

Michael Grimm (R) is aiming to win his old seat back from U.S. Rep. Dan Donovan (R) in a district that could be competitive in the general election. Grimm represented the Staten Island-based seat from 2011 to 2015 before he resigned after pleading guilty to felony tax evasion. Donovan won a special election to replace him and was re-elected in 2016.

Grimm and Donovan are each trying to define themselves as the true Trump candidate, according to Politico. Grimm is running to Donovan's right and has criticized him for voting against the Republican plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act and legislation to strip sanctuary cities (such as New York City) of federal funding. Donovan criticized Grimm for his votes in favor of bilateral trade agreements while he served in Congress, saying he went against Trump's position on trade. In addition to Trump, personal attacks have defined the race, with Donovan calling Grimm "the convict congressman" and Grimm calling Donovan "Desperate Dan."

• Ohio's 12th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 12th Congressional District special election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Nine Republican candidates battled to replace former Rep. Patrick Tiberi (R), who resigned from office in January 2018 to lead the Ohio Business Roundtable. State Sen. Troy Balderson (R) and businesswoman Melanie Leneghan (R) received the most political and financial support, but State Sen. Kevin Bacon (R), former Air Force intelligence officer Tim Kane (R), and prosecutor Carol O'Brien (R) were also competitive in fundraising.

Balderson received Tiberi's endorsement, as well as a $240,000 cable and digital ad buy from Defending Main Street in April 2018. Leneghan was backed by the House Freedom Caucus, Rep. Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), and House Freedom Action, the campaign arm of the House Freedom Caucus, which supported her with a $187,000 ad campaign. Club for Growth spent $150,000 on an ad alleging that Balderson voted to support the Affordable Care Act in Ohio, which the Balderson campaign called a "blatant falsehood" since the state Senate did not directly vote on the expansion of Medicaid.

Balderson finished ahead of Leneghan by about 650 votes to win this primary, 29 percent to 28 percent. He faced Franklin County Recorder Danny O'Connor (D), who won the Democratic primary, in the special election for this seat on August 7, 2018.

• Virginia Senate (June 12)

See also United States Senate election in Virginia (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

In deciding who will take on U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine (D) in November, Virginia Republicans have a choice between Corey Stewart, a Prince William County supervisor tied to President Donald Trump, state Del. Nick Freitas, and minister E.W. Jackson, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor in 2013. While Kaine will be favored in the general election, the Senate race will be at the top of the ticket for Virginia voters and could affect turnout for down-ballot Republicans in swing seats like those held by Barbara Comstock.

Running on a promise to protect the state’s Confederate monuments, Stewart lost the 2017 Republican gubernatorial primary to Ed Gillespie by one point. After Gillespie lost the general election to Ralph Northam (D), Stewart said a pro-Trump candidate like himself would have fared better. Although Freitas also supports Trump and his agenda, he has made libertarian policies the focus of his campaign. He supports decriminalizing marijuana at the federal level and limiting U.S. involvement in foreign wars. Libertarian Republicans Rand Paul and Mike Lee endorsed him. Jackson angered members of his own party in his unsuccessful lieutenant gubernatorial bid due to his rhetoric on social issues.

• West Virginia Senate (May 8)

See also: United States Senate election in West Virginia (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Six Republicans ran for the Republican nomination to challenge incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin (D). Donald Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 42 points in the 2016 presidential election in West Virginia—his largest margin of victory in any state. CNN also listed this seat as one of the 10 U.S. Senate seats it considered most likely to change party hands in 2018.

The three leading candidates were businessman Don Blankenship, Rep. Evan Jenkins, and Attorney General Patrick Morrisey. Blankenship was the former chief executive of Massey Energy, a mining company that had large operations in West Virginia. He was convicted of conspiring to violate mine safety and health standards in 2015, following the fatal Upper Big Branch Mine explosion, and served one year in prison for the misdemeanor. Jenkins was first elected to represent West Virginia's 3rd Congressional District in 2014, after switching his political affiliation from Democratic to Republican. He previously served in the West Virginia State Senate from 2002 to 2014. Morrisey unseated five-term incumbent state attorney general Darrell McGraw (D) in 2012. All three touted their support of Trump and alignment with the President's agenda.

Morrisey topped the six-candidate field, winning the primary with 35 percent of the vote. Jenkins finished second with 29 percent and Blankenship was third with 20 percent.

Republican races removed from the list this week

• Florida's 27th Congressional District (August 28)

See also: Florida's 27th Congressional District election (August 28, 2018 Republican primary)

Longtime incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) announced in 2017 that she planned to retire at the end of her term, leaving the seat open to a newcomer. The New York Times called Florida's 27th "the best Democratic pick-up opportunity in the country" because of Ros-Lehtinen's retirement. In 2016, the district supported Hillary Clinton (D) by 20 points, the highest margin for any Republican-held district. Republicans will need to hold onto seats like this one if they want to maintain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018. Eight GOP candidates have expressed an interest in running for this seat, and the filing deadline was May 4, 2018.

• Nevada's 3rd Congressional District (June 12)

See also: Nevada's 3rd Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Ten candidates, including state Sen. Scott Hammond and small business owner Danny Tarkanian, filed to run for the GOP nomination in this open seat swing district after incumbent Jacky Rosen (D) announced in June 2017 that she would run for the U.S. Senate in 2018 rather than seek re-election to her 3rd District seat in the House. Rosen's victory in 2016 marked the third time since the district's inception in 2003 that this seat had changed party hands. The district was rated as lean Democratic in May 2018 by several prominent election publications.

Tarkanian entered the race on March 16, 2018, after President Donald Trump (R) asked him to withdraw from the U.S. Senate election in Nevada and file for the U.S. House instead. Trump tweeted, "It would be great for the Republican Party of Nevada, and it’s [sic] unity if good guy Danny Tarkanian would run for Congress and Dean Heller, who is doing a really good job, could run for Senate unopposed!"

• North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District (May 8)

See also: North Carolina's 3rd Congressional District election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

Incumbent Rep. Walter Jones (R) faced two challengers who were critical of his deviation from President Trump's agenda. Jones voted against the President's proposal to repeal and replace Obamacare in 2017. He was also one of 12 Republican House members to vote against the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2017. The 3rd District voted for Trump by 20 points in 2016. Since no Democrats filed for this seat, the Republican primary was likely to decide the winner of the general election.

Challenger Scott Dacey said he would be more supportive of Trump's policies, pointing to Jones' vote against the Obamacare repeal when announcing his campaign. Phil Law, who ran against Jones in 2016, described the 2018 Republican primary as "a choice between a 34-year politician, a casino lobbyist, or a patriot." According to Reflector, Law's top priority was the construction of a southern border wall, also advocated for by President Trump.

Jones successfully fended off both challengers in the primary, receiving 43 percent of the vote. Law was second at 29 percent and Dacey finished third with 28 percent.

• Ohio's 16th Congressional District (May 8)

See also: Ohio's 16th Congressional District election (May 8, 2018 Republican primary)

The race to replace retiring Rep. Jim Renacci (R) in the U.S. House featured a showdown between Republicans with differing views of the party’s future. Former Ohio State University football player Anthony Gonzalez was backed by U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio, (R-Fla.) and believes that the nation's upcoming demographic and social changes will necessitate changes in how the GOP approaches elections. State Rep. Christina Hagan is a Trump supporter who cast herself as a social and fiscal conservative connected to former administration figures Anthony Scaramucci and Sebastian Gorka. She was also endorsed by U.S. Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Oh.) and Mark Meadows (R-N.C.), leaders of the House Freedom Caucus. The district voted for Trump by 6.7 points in 2016, but has similar demographics to the Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District seat won by Conor Lamb (D) in March 2017.

Gonzalez finished first to win the Republican nomination, getting 53 percent of the vote. Hagan received just under 41 percent, while third-place finisher Michael Grusenmeyer took 6 percent.

• Ohio governor (May 8)

See also: Ohio gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2018 (May 8 Republican primary)

Attorney General Mike DeWine and Lieutenant Governor Mary Taylor were the sole contenders for the Republican nomination to succeed term-limited Gov. John Kasich (R). The primary battle played out over Ohio airwaves as a battle over ideological purity. Both candidates said that they alone carried the conservative banner in the state. Taylor released a campaign ad calling DeWine too liberal for Ohio, while DeWine's campaign ads referred to Taylor as a career politician while saying that DeWine is "a rock-solid conservative for governor."

Taylor was elected as Kasich's running-mate in the 2010 and 2014 elections and she had previously served as the state Auditor and in the state House. On the campaign trail, Taylor avoided Gov. Kasich's legacy, even denying that he had endorsed her. DeWine, the campaign finance and polling leader, served in the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House, the state Senate, and as lieutenant governor. He touted his endorsements from the Republican Party of Ohio and members of the state Legislature.

DeWine won this primary with 60 percent of the vote to Taylor's 40 percent. He faced Democratic nominee Richard Cordray in November.

• South Carolina's 4th Congressional District (June 12)

See also South Carolina's 4th Congressional District election (June 12, 2018 Republican primary)

Thirteen Republican candidates filed to seek the party's nomination to succeed sitting Rep. Trey Gowdy (R), and five of those candidates reported raising at least $100,000 for this race through the end of March 2018. Gowdy, who was first elected to represent the district in 2010, announced his retirement on January 31, 2018. No Democratic candidate has won election to represent the district since 1990. Donald Trump carried the district by a 25 percent margin in the 2016 presidential election. If no candidate receives a majority of the vote in the June 12 primary, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff election on June 26, 2018.