Ballotpedia's top 10 races, 2016

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November 3, 2016
By the Ballotpedia Team

See also: Sample Ballot Lookup and Election results, 2016

Over half a million officials hold elected office in the United States. Thousands of elections are held each year, so it's difficult to know which ones to watch—and why. Ballotpedia has identified 10 races to watch in the 2016 election cycle. These are the races that will affect partisan control of government, future judicial appointments, and countless policies governing everyday life throughout the country. They are notable for their competitiveness, their ability to garner media attention, and their implications for future governance.

The most expensive ballot measure in California history is on our list, and so is a race to control a school board that was criticized for running "failure factories." Nine statewide ballots will ask voters about marijuana, and a controversial county sheriff in Arizona has raised more campaign money than the state's governor did in 2014. In congressional races, there is a fourth consecutive battle to represent New Hampshire's 1st District in the U.S. House.

Ballotpedia is tracking the presidential battlegrounds, and you can see the full coverage of those here. But these are our top 10 races to watch.

#10: California's Proposition 61

California Proposition 61:
More money has been spent on the campaigns surrounding California Proposition 61 than on the campaigns for any other measure in 2016. Moreover, Proposition 61 will likely be the most expensive ballot measure battle in the history of the nation. The initiative would require state government agencies to pay no more for prescription drug prices than the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) pays. Opponents have poured over $108 million into the campaign to defeat Prop. 61, with most of the campaign funds coming from pharmaceutical companies. Opponents have outspent supporters by a ratio of seven to one. The AIDS Healthcare Foundation provided most of the funds to put the initiative on the ballot and campaign in support of it, and Michael Weinstein, who is the president and co-founder of the AIDS Healthcare Foundation, was the chief sponsor of the initiative.

There are varying opinions about what effect the proposition would have on prices paid for prescription drugs. Supporters argue that Prop. 61 would force drug companies to stop price gouging and save taxpayers billions of dollars in healthcare costs. Opponents argue that Proposition 61 could result in an increase in drug prices for veterans, increased prescription costs statewide, and a decrease in the availability of certain drugs. California spent nearly $3.8 billion on prescription drugs in the 2014-2015 fiscal year, nearly 83 percent of which was paid by Medi-Cal and the Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS).

#9: New Hampshire's 1st District

New Hampshire's 1st Congressional District election, 2016:
New Hampshire's 1st District is perhaps the most volatile U.S. House district in the country. Incumbent Frank Guinta (R) is seeking re-election to his second consecutive term and will face former incumbent Carol Shea-Porter (D) in their fourth consecutive general election battle. The two candidates have swapped control of the district since 2010, and the trend appears likely to continue in 2016. Heading into November, both polling and fundraising totals show the incumbent to be a slight underdog in the race. Additionally, businessman Shawn O'Connor (independent) has been self-funding and is likely to draw a significant portion of the general election vote.

#8: North Carolina Supreme Court

North Carolina Supreme Court:

Associate Justice Robert Edmunds

Only one seat on the North Carolina Supreme Court is up for election in November, but the winner of that seat will determine the political balance of the court. Although the court and election are nonpartisan, the political philosophies of the justices are well known. Associate Justice Robert Edmunds was first elected to the court in 2000 and re-elected in 2008. Edmunds is a member of the court's conservative faction, which holds a 4-3 majority on the court heading into the election. His opponent, Superior Court Judge Michael Morgan, is expected to join the liberal faction and thereby shift control of the court if he ousts Edmunds.

Superior Court Judge Michael Morgan

In June 2015, North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory (R) signed into law a bill requiring sitting justices on the North Carolina Supreme Court to seek re-election in retention elections rather than in nonpartisan competitive elections, effective in 2016. The law specified that for a sitting justice to be re-elected, he or she must receive at least 50 percent "yes" votes in yes-no retention elections. However, a three-judge panel of Wake County Superior Court judges ruled the retention law unconstitutional in March 2016 on the basis that "a retention election is not an 'election' for the office of supreme court justice as required by the constitution." The state appealed the ruling to the North Carolina Supreme Court. On April 13, 2016, the court heard oral arguments on the constitutionality of the retention election law. Edmunds was recused from hearing the case since he had filed to stand for retention in 2016. On May 6, 2016, the remaining justices split 3-3 on the question, and therefore the lower court's ruling overturning the retention election law was upheld.

With the retention law struck down, Justice Edmunds now faces a contested election against challenger Judge Morgan.

#7: Pinellas schools in Florida

Board member Carol Cook

Pinellas County Schools:
The Pinellas County school board is under critical examination after an investigation of the board and district—titled "Failure Factories"—was published in 2015. The report described the daily strife of black students in the county, particularly in five elementary schools whose ratings changed from average to failing over a few years. The investigation tied these students' struggles to a 2007 decision the board made to effectively segregate the district's schools, and the report triggered a still-in-progress civil rights investigation by the U.S. Department of Education. The report, which won the 2016 Pulitzer Prize in Local Reporting, also showed that the board's vote appeared to be a symptom of other deep-seated problems in the district. Three of the board members who voted for the de-integration plan still sat on the board in 2016: Peggy O'Shea, Linda Lerner, and Carol Cook. These incumbents were re-elected to the board multiple times. The district's school board has experienced a 100 percent incumbency success rate in re-election bids from 1998 to 2014.

Eliseo Santana

The incumbent win streak was halted earlier this year when board incumbent Ken Peluso lost his bid for re-election to newcomer Eileen Long in the primary election on August 30, 2016. The seat of the other incumbent who filed for re-election—Carol Cook—is not safe yet, either. Although Cook was the top vote recipient in the primary election, she did not receive enough votes to win outright. She faces Eliseo Santana in the general election. Historically, voter turnout at the Pinellas school board race has been significantly higher in the general election compared to the primary.

#6: Governor of Indiana

Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb (R)

Indiana Governor:
At stake in November is a five-year Republican trifecta; if Republicans lose the governorship, it will end the trifecta.

The race was set to be a rematch between incumbent Governor Mike Pence (R) and former State Speaker of the House John Gregg (D), whom Pence defeated in 2012 by 3 percentage points. Pence had garnered criticism over his support of 2015's Religious Freedom Restoration Act and faced a competitive re-election challenge from Gregg. However, Pence withdrew from the race on July 15, 2016, after Donald Trump (R) selected him as his vice presidential running mate.

John Gregg (D)

Following Pence's withdrawal, the Republican state committee selected Lieutenant Governor Eric Holcomb as the party's replacement candidate on July 26, 2016, and he announced that State Auditor Suzanne Crouch (R) would replace him on the ticket as the party's candidate for lieutenant governor.

Holcomb was appointed lieutenant governor by Pence in February 2016, just five months prior to winning the nomination for governor. At the time of the appointment, Holcomb was running for a U.S. Senate seat, but he ended his campaign to assume the lieutenant governorship. Holcomb had previously served as chief of staff to U.S. Senator Dan Coats (R) for four years and in various positions in Governor Mitch Daniels' (R) administration between 2001 and 2008. The race is rated a "Toss-up," with Gregg in the lead in October polls.

#5: Maricopa County Sheriff in Arizona

Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R)

Maricopa County Sheriff:
Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio (R) is defending his position against challenger Paul Penzone (D), and many media outlets predict it will be his most difficult re-election bid so far. Arpaio has made national headlines for his tough stance on immigration and the lawsuits filed against him and his office. Arpaio has raised over $12 million, according to his campaign finance report submitted on September 27, 2016. For comparison, Arizona Governor Doug Ducey (R) raised about $8 million for his race in 2014.

In May 2016, U.S. District Judge G. Murray Snow found Arpaio and three others to be in civil contempt for failing to follow court orders in regard to racial profiling. In August 2016, he asked the U.S. Attorney's Office to file criminal contempt charges against the four men for continued failure to follow orders and giving false statements. On October 11, 2016, federal prosecutors announced that they intended to file criminal contempt of court charges against Arpaio.

Also on the ballot in Maricopa County are county assessor, county attorney, county recorder, county treasurer, six justices of the peace, and eight constables. Additionally, several special district board seats are up for election: three for the Maricopa Integrated Health System, five for the Central Arizona Water Conservation District, and four for the Maricopa County Community College District.

#4: Nevada Senate

United States Senate election in Nevada, 2016:
Nevada's U.S. Senate race is the only competitive Senate race in the country that the Democratic Party has to defend in 2016. The seat is open following incumbent Harry Reid's decision to retire at the end of the term. Former state Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and U.S. Rep. Joe Heck will compete in the election. Polling has shown a very tight race, with Heck maintaining a small lead in polling averages, while Masto has a small lead in fundraising. President Obama won the state in both 2012 and 2008, giving Masto another small advantage.

#3: Detroit schools in Michigan

Mayor Mike Duggan

Detroit Public Schools Community District:
Detroit's board of education election represents a turning point in the board's composition and power. City schools were placed under the management of a state-appointed emergency manager in March 2009 due to budget deficits and declining academic performance. On July 1, 2016, a state law divided Detroit Public Schools (DPS) into two districts: DPS and the Detroit Public Schools Community District. DPS remains as a legal entity to pay down more than $400 million in debt. The Detroit Public Schools Community District manages day-to-day operations for public schools in conjunction with the state-appointed Detroit Financial Review Commission.

The 11-member board for Detroit Public Schools will be replaced by a seven-member board when new members take office in January 2017. The emergency manager's office will be eliminated after the first meeting of the board. All seven seats on the new board are on the ballot in 2016. Sixty-three candidates, including 10 of the 11 previous members of the board, filed to take on challenges that include enrollment decreases, funding issues, and relations with state government.

The restructuring bill was touted by Gov. Rick Snyder (R) as "a new day for Detroit families, with DPS free from debt and strong accountability measures for all schools in the city that promises a brighter future for all of Detroit's children." The Michigan Association of School Boards, Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, and Democratic legislators from the city criticized the lack of local input into the district's reorganization. Three lawsuits were filed between July 2016 and September 2016 alleging that the legislation was unconstitutional due to concerns about its impact on local governance and student performance.

#2: Marijuana ballot measures across America

Marijuana state ballot measures:
With marijuana-related measures on nine statewide ballots this year, as many as 80 million Americans could experience loosened rules concerning marijuana. Five states could legalize recreational marijuana, and voters in four states will decide whether or not to allow or expand medical marijuana programs.

Recreational marijuana:

This election could have effects on marijuana policy that extend beyond the boundaries of the states in which legalization is on the ballot. Some theorize that if enough states legalize marijuana, federal prohibition could end and that 2016 could be the "tipping point." Potential legalization in California—home of over 39 million residents, a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of $2.46 trillion in 2016, and 53 representatives in the U.S. House—is one of the factors that make this a significant election for marijuana policy.

States with questions

• Arizona
• California
• Maine
• Massachusetts
• Nevada

Medical marijuana:

States with questions

• Arkansas
• Florida
• Montana
• North Dakota

#1: State legislature battlegrounds across America

State legislatures:
There are 5,923 seats in 86 state legislative chambers holding elections on November 8, 2016. Republicans currently control 69 chambers while Democrats hold 30 chambers. Historically, the party that wins the presidency typically sees down-ballot races ride the coattails of the newly elected president. Democrats have a greater opportunity to gain seats in 2016 due to their position as the minority party in most of the nation's state legislatures.

Ballotpedia has identified 20 battleground chambers where the party out of power has the best chance to topple the other party from its current position of majority control. Republicans control almost twice as many battleground chambers (13) as do Democrats (7), putting them at greater partisan risk of losing chambers.

The states and chambers that made Ballotpedia's list are:

• Colorado (S) (H)
• Iowa (S) (H)
• Kentucky (H)
• Maine (S) (H)
• Michigan (H)
• Minnesota (S) (H)
• Nevada (S)
• New Hampshire (S) (H)
• New Mexico (S) (H)
• New York (S)
• Washington (S) (H)
• West Virginia (S)
• Wisconsin (S)

See also

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