Battleground Friday: Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
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November 4, 2014 |
August 26, 2014 |
Martha McSally  |
Ron Barber  |
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Cook Political Report: Toss Up[1] Sabato's Crystal Ball: Toss Up[2] |
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August 1, 2014
By Ballotpedia's Congressional team
In the next profile of our 2014 battleground districts, Ballotpedia is taking an in-depth look at Arizona's 2nd Congressional District's 2014 election.
Current incumbent: Ron Barber (D) was first elected to the House in a special election on June 12, 2012, following the resignation of Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. Barber then won re-election in the 2012 general election several months later.
Barber is a member of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's Frontline Program. The program is designed to help protect vulnerable Democratic incumbents heading into the 2014 election.[3] According to a Washington Post article in December 2012, Barber is one of the 10 most vulnerable incumbents in 2014.[4]
2012 MOV: Barber won the seat in 2012 with a margin of victory of 0.8 percent over challenger Martha McSally (R). The two candidates were separated by 2,454 votes.[5]
2014 candidates: Three Republican challengers will face off in the primary for a chance to defeat Barber: 2012 challenger Martha McSally, Shelley Kais and Chuck Wooten.[6] Barber is very likely to face McSally in a rematch of the 2012 election due to her name recognition and massive fundraising advantage over the other two candidates. McSally was added to the National Republican Congressional Committee's "On the Radar" list in November 2013. According to the NRCC, candidates that make this list receive "...the tools they need to run successful, winning campaigns against their Democratic opponents."[7]
What made it a Ballotpedia battleground district?: Our analysis points to the district being a battleground with nearly even numbers of registered Democrats and Republicans. Cook's PVI shows the district as R+3 while Fairvote rates the district as 50.9% Democratic. Additionally, incumbent Barber won the seat over Mcsally in 2012 with a margin of victor of less than one percent. The district was won by the Republican presidential candidate in both 2008 and 2012 as well.
FEC: July Quarterly reports from the Federal Election Commission show incumbent Ron Barber with a fundraising advantage over all of his Republican challengers. He has raised a total of $2,144,475 and has $1,563,927 cash on hand.[8] Martha McSally is the only Republican challenger who has raised a significant amount of money. She has raised a total of $1,835,406 raised and has $1,157,040 on hand.[9] Shelley Kais and Chuck Wooten have only raised $33,153 and $27,297, respectively.[10][11]
- The information above was compiled following the Arizona candidate filing deadline. Please find all further updates on the 2nd District's election page.
| Arizona's 2nd Congressional District | |
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Population: 722,918 | |
See also
- U.S. House battleground districts, 2014
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District
- Arizona's 2nd Congressional District elections, 2014
- Ron Barber
- Martha McSally
- Shelley Kais
- Chuck Wooten
Footnotes
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "2014 HOUSE RACE RATINGS FOR June 26, 2014," accessed July 28, 2014
- ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2014 House Races," accessed July 28, 2014
- ↑ Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, "DCCC Chairman Steve Israel Announces 2013-2014 Frontline Members," accessed March 5, 2013
- ↑ Washington Post, "House Democrats Face Long Odds in 2014," accessed December 7, 2012
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election," November 6, 2012
- ↑ Arizona Secretary of State, "2014 Primary Election candidates," accessed July 31, 2014
- ↑ Roll Call, "House Republicans Put 36 Recruits ‘On the Radar’" accessed November 21, 2013
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Ron Barber July Quarterly," accessed July 23, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Martha McSally July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Shelley Kais July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Chuck Wooten July Quarterly," accessed July 24, 2014
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