California's 10th Congressional District election, 2020 (March 3 top-two primary)
- Primary date: March 3
- Primary type: Top-two
- Registration deadline(s): Feb. 18
- Online registration: Yes
- Same-day registration: Yes
- Early voting starts: Varies locally
- Absentee/mail voting deadline(s): March 3 (postmarked); March 6 (received)
- Voter ID: No ID
- Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Incumbent Josh Harder (D) and Ted Howze (R) were the top two finishers from among the six candidates who ran in the March 3, 2020, top-two primary for California's 10th Congressional District. The only other candidate with more than 10% of the vote was Bob Elliott (R). Harder and Howze ran in the district's general election on November 3, 2020.
As of the 2020 election, one Democrat and one Republican had advanced from the district's primary in each congressional election since California's top-two primary system went into effect in 2011. Two Democrats and three Republicans ran in addition to Harder.
Media coverage and endorsements focused on three candidates besides Harder: Elliott, Howze, and Marla Livengood (R).
Elliott highlighted what he described as his "experience as a Colonel in the Green Berets, as a business leader in the nuclear energy and homeland security sectors, and as a County Supervisor who has balanced budgets and increased law enforcement funding."[1] Former California Assemblyman Bill Berryhill (R), Combat Veterans for Congress, and SEALPAC endorsed Elliott.
Howze said that if elected he would "address concerns like affordability, housing and cost of living, water for our farmers and ranchers, common sense immigration reform and putting patients first in healthcare."[2] U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Former U.S. Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.), and 2018 California Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox endorsed Howze.
Livengood stated, "I have been fighting for local Agriculture all of my adult life and it will be a top priority when I get to Congress."[3] She received endorsements from the San Joaquin County Republican Party and the Federal Wildland Fire Service Association.
Harder said, "Half our community voted for Trump. Half didn’t … We have to find ways to work together. I’ve tried to live that by example."[4] Former President Barack Obama (D) and U.S. Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Kamala Harris (D-Calif.) endorsed Harder.
Mike Barkley (D) and Ryan Blevins (D) also ran in the primary.
In the 2018 general election, Harder defeated Jeff Denham (R) 52% to 48%. Major race rating outlets rated the general election as Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic. The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. Click here to learn more about what's at stake in the general election.
Click on candidate names below to view their key messages:
![]() Harder |
![]() Elliott |
![]() Howze |
![]() Livengood |
For more information about the general election, click here.
Candidates and election results
Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 10
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Josh Harder (D) | 44.1 | 69,668 |
✔ | ![]() | Ted Howze (R) ![]() | 33.9 | 53,574 |
![]() | Bob Elliott (R) | 13.0 | 20,481 | |
Mike Barkley (D) | 3.5 | 5,561 | ||
![]() | Marla Livengood (R) | 3.3 | 5,270 | |
![]() | Ryan Blevins (D) ![]() | 2.2 | 3,536 |
Total votes: 158,090 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Jeff Denham (R)
- Charles Dossett (R)
Candidate profiles
This section includes candidate profiles created in one of two ways. Either the candidate completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey or Ballotpedia staff created a profile after identifying the candidate as noteworthy.[5] Ballotpedia staff compiled profiles based on campaign websites, advertisements, and public statements.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: Yes
Political Office:
U.S. House (Assumed office: 2019)
Biography: Harder received a B.A. from Stanford University and an M.B.A. and M.P.P. from Harvard University. As of his 2020 campaign, Harder's professional experience included working at Bessemer Venture Partners and the Boston Consulting Group, working with the Gates Foundation and other nonprofit organizations, and teaching at Modesto Junior College.
Show sources
Sources: KCRA 3, "Freshman congressman faces 5 challengers in San Joaquin, Stanislaus counties," February 24, 2020 Josh Harder 2020 campaign website, "About Josh," accessed February 27, 2020 Josh Harder 2020 campaign website, "Our Message," accessed February 27, 2020; Information submitted on Ballotpedia's biographical information submission form on January 23, 2018 Representative Josh Harder, "About," accessed February 27, 2020
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 10 in 2020.
Party: Democratic Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Submitted Biography: "I am Ryan Blevins, a Robotics Engineer from Oakdale, California. Technology has always been very interesting to me. Naturally I have become an expert in many technical areas, including the automation that is threatening workers and the economy. I have very little political experience, but I think my experience in technology makes up for it. I believe that we need a government that understands technology, and I want to help."
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 10 in 2020.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors (Assumed office: 2013)
Tracy City Council (2010-2012)
Biography: Elliott graduated from the United States Military Academy at West Point and received an M.A. in national security affairs from the Naval Postgraduate School. He retired from the U.S. Army as a Colonel, U.S. Army Special Forces, after 30 years of service. He also worked at General Electric and Westinghouse Electric Company.
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 10 in 2020.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office:
Turlock City Council (2006-2010)
Submitted Biography: "Dr. Ted Howze is a lifelong resident of the Central Valley and former Turlock City Councilmember. Dr. Howze grew up on a farm south of Fresno where he worked in the fields, learned to speak Spanish and developed a love of agriculture. He attend The University of California Davis in 1985, where he received an undergraduate degree in Exercise Physiology while also working full time as a firefighter and EMT. Dr. Howze completed veterinary school at U.C. Davis and moved to the Turlock area in 1994 where he has worked for 25 years as a Large Animal Veterinarian primarily serving local dairy farmers and ranchers. Dr. Howze is the proud father of three sons, and as a local football coach has been a positive role model for thousands of young athletes over the last two decades. Ted and his wife Laura, a local Catholic High School teacher, have both dedicated themselves to preserving the American Dream while working to enact meaningful healthcare reform for all Americans. "
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 10 in 2020.
Party: Republican Party
Incumbent: No
Political Office: None
Biography: Livengood graduated with a B.S. in agricultural economics from California State University, Fresno. As of her 2020 campaign, Livengood's professional experience included working as a legislative director, legislative affairs manager, legislative policy analyst, and regulatory affairs manager, roles she described as "focusing on agriculture, transportation, economic development and job creation."
Show sources
This information was current as of the candidate's run for U.S. House California District 10 in 2020.
Endorsements
This section lists endorsements issued in this election. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please email us.
Click on the links below to explore each candidate's full list of endorsements on their campaign websites:
Top-two primary endorsements | ||||||
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Endorsement | ![]() |
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Newspapers and editorials | ||||||
The Modesto Bee[6] | ✔ | |||||
The Valley Citizen[6] | ✔ | |||||
Elected officials | ||||||
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)[6] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Calif.)[6] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. Rep. Anna Eshoo (D-Calif.)[6] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-Calif.)[6] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. Rep. Mike Thompson (D-Calif.)[6] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-Calif.)[6] | ✔ | |||||
U.S. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.)[7] | ✔ | |||||
Individuals | ||||||
Former President Barack Obama (D)[6] | ✔ | |||||
Former U.S. Rep. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.)[8] | ✔ | |||||
2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox[9] | ✔ | |||||
Former state Assemblyman Bill Berryhill (R)[10] | ✔ | |||||
Former state Assemblyman Travis Allen (R)[9] | ✔ | |||||
Organizations | ||||||
NewDems[6] | ✔ | |||||
The Arena[6] | ✔ | |||||
J Street[6] | ✔ | |||||
California Labor Federation[6] | ✔ | |||||
Council for a Livable World[6] | ✔ | |||||
End Citizens United[6] | ✔ | |||||
United Farm Workers[6] | ✔ | |||||
evolve[6] | ✔ | |||||
REGIS[6] | ✔ | |||||
Leadership Now Project[6] | ✔ | |||||
Democratic Party Club Stanislaus State[6] | ✔ | |||||
California Young Democrats[6] | ✔ | |||||
Modesto Junior College Democrats[6] | ✔ | |||||
Brady Campaign[6] | ✔ | |||||
Moms Demand Action[6] | ✔ | |||||
Democratic Women's Club of Stanislaus County[6] | ✔ | |||||
Paint America Blue[6] | ✔ | |||||
Latino Community Roundtable, Stanislaus County[6] | ✔ | |||||
California Teachers Association[6] | ✔ | |||||
National Education Association[6] | ✔ | |||||
Social Security Works[6] | ✔ | |||||
Seven labor unions (hover over for list) | ✔ | |||||
UC Berkeley Yang Gang[11] | ✔ | |||||
Combat Veterans for Congress[10] | ✔ | |||||
Nisei Farmers League[10] | ✔ | |||||
Escalon Police Officers Association[10] | ✔ | |||||
SEALPAC[10] | ✔ | |||||
Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association PAC[10][9] | ✔ | ✔ | ||||
Central Valley Taxpayers Association[12] | ✔ | |||||
Back the Badge California[9] | ✔ | |||||
Central Valley Impact Republicans[9] | ✔ | |||||
Manteca Police Officers’ Association[9] | ✔ | |||||
Republican Women of California, San Joaquin County[9] | ✔ | |||||
Sacramento State College Republicans[9] | ✔ | |||||
Stanford College Republicans[13] | ✔ | |||||
Stanislaus State College Republicans[9] | ✔ | |||||
San Joaquin County Republican Party[14] | ✔ | |||||
Federal Wildland Fire Service Association[15] | ✔ | |||||
California ProLife Council and Right to Life Federation PAC[16] | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ |
Timeline
2020
Campaign themes
- See also: Campaign themes
Campaign themes were available on the following candidates' campaign websites as of February 27, 2020.
Josh Harder
Harder's campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Fight for Health Care in the Valley I will continue my work to improve our health care system, not devastate it by: Lowering costs Insurance premiums on the ACA marketplace in Stanislaus County rose 24% in 2018. We must provide short-term relief by increasing competition on the marketplaces by letting people buy into Medicare, curtailing prescription drug prices, and bringing more people into the marketplace. America spends far more on health care than any other country, but we’re less healthy. The big drug companies jack up prices on life-saving medicines that can be bought for a fraction of the cost in Canada. And for too many working people, premiums, co-pays, and deductibles are so expensive that they can’t even afford to use the insurance they have. It’s time to attack high costs by allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices and doing more to pay providers for the quality of care, not just the volume. Expanding access San Francisco has almost twice as many doctors per capita as the Central Valley. I hear from folks all the time about the lack of doctors in the Valley. That’s why I’m working to make sure we attract more doctors, nurses, and other medical professionals right here in our community. I also believe long term we should double down on the part of our health care system that works best by opening Medicare up to all Americans. Fair and humane immigration reform The Central Valley is a land of immigrants. We have over 10,000 Dreamers in our community who are our friends, classmates, and neighbors - they’re American in every way but on paper We should be providing them a pathway to citizenship. I was proud to cosponsor and vote to pass the Dream and Promise Act to help provide a pathway to citizenship for our Dreamers. I’m also proud to be leading legislation like the ENLIST Act, which says that if you serve in our Armed Forces, you should be able to work towards citizenship. I know we can help our Dreamers, we just need the political will do it. I also believe we need comprehensive immigration reform that includes securing our borders. We must make real investments in enhanced technology at our southern border and at our ports to protect our country from drug smugglers and human traffickers. That’s why I voted for $13.8 billion to provide more border security technology and enforcement officers. We have to keep our country safe, and we must do it in a humane way that upholds our values. Fighting corruption Corporate greed and Super PACs are corrupting our political system. Corruption in DC stands in the way of getting some of the most important things done like lowering prescription drug costs. I was proud to help lead the For the People Act - the most sweeping anti-corruption bill since the Watergate Era. We need to clean up our election system and make Congress work for our families, not special interests. In fact, the first piece of legislation I wrote and passed through the House cracks down on lobbying and makes sure our government works for the people. I also introduced the No Health Care, No Raise Act to guarantee Congress doesn’t get a raise until every person in our country has health care. Create quality public schools for all Valley kids I went to public schools in Turlock and Modesto (go Panthers!), and I firmly believe in the power of public education to create opportunity, because that is what it did for me. I am committed to ensuring that every child in the Central Valley has access to a world-class education to prepare them for any future. Now, the same public schools that gave me a head start are threatened by Secretary Devos and the Trump Administration. I will:
Build a sustainable water future for the Central Valley Water has been the critical issue for our community since my great-great-grandfather began farming in Manteca more than 170 years ago, and we will never solve our problems by shipping it to Southern California. For too long, politicians have haggled over our water crisis instead of working to solve it. My first bill in Congress was the SAVE Water Resources Act, a real 21st Century solution to solving our water issues. Working with Republicans and Democrats, I wrote this bill to make sure we’re securing and growing our water supply to get ready for the next drought. I’ve also introduced bipartisan legislation to bring more money to water research. This isn’t a problem that’s going to be solved by doing things the way we always have - we’re in a time of record droughts and need new innovative solutions to guarantee we have water for our families and our farmers. Create more good jobs for the Valley I’m tired of seeing the Valley’s economy fall behind. Our unemployment rate is double the unemployment rate in the Bay Area. In my business career, I helped entrepreneurs and small businesses develop their ideas and create high-paying jobs. As your Representative, I’ve worked to help small businesses and working-class Americans have the opportunities they need to be successful. I’m focused on:
Veterans My grandfather served two tours in Vietnam and Korea, and I grew up hearing stories about his tours abroad. I understand the need to take care of veterans like my grandfather who served and sacrificed to protect our country. We need to make it easier to get VA care, invest in job training, and expand job placement services for veterans. I’ve worked to provide our troops with high quality mental health care and substance abuse treatment while they serve and after they come home. In Modesto especially, too many of the men and women who serve our nation don't get the care they need. I’ve worked to pass legislation that will support our Blue Water Vietnam Veterans and to help veterans experiencing mental health crises. I’ve also helped dozens of veterans solve issues with the VA. Protect our environment The Central Valley has some of the most productive soil and land in the world. I believe we must be good stewards of our water, air, and land resources to make sure their use is conserved for the next generation. Like many of our kids in the Central Valley, I grew up with childhood asthma because of our high air pollution. We can and must improve our adherence to clean air and water standards and invest in our children’s health. I strongly believe in the scientific consensus that climate change is real and man-made. I will fight back against the Trump Administration’s dangerous attempts to undo international agreements on climate change like the Paris Climate Accord. We also must go further, we must incentivize investments in clean energy sources and move away from polluting fossil fuels. The fastest growing industry in our nation is wind energy and solar’s not far behind - the future of our economy is in green energy. I believe the Central Valley can lead the way and create the good-paying jobs right here at home. Housing and homelessness Washington has not taken the housing crisis seriously. Our rents keep going up and up in the Valley - in Modesto they’ve shot up more than $400 in the past five years. We need more affordable housing so our families can live the American Dream. We also know that homelessness is a huge problem in our communities. I believe we must tackle this problem head on. I am a proud co-sponsor of the Fighting Homelessness through Housing and Services Act, which not only provides funding for transitional housing, but will also tackle its root causes by investing in mental health and substance abuse services and provide job training opportunities for our homelessness neighbors.[20] |
” |
—Josh Harder's campaign website (2020)[21] |
Mike Barkley
Click here to view Barkley's full platform, which is outlined below:
“ |
PLATFORM: Philosophy: identify problems, listen to people, devise legislative solutions.
|
” |
—Mike Barkley's campaign website (2020)[22] |
Ryan Blevins
Blevins' campaign website stated the following:
“ |
FREEDOM DIVIDEND Alaska has set up the Alaska Permanent Fund, which is a form of Universal Basic Income. Every year the oil is taxed and redistributed to the people in the form of a $2000 check. The freedom dividend will tax data, technology and luxury items to give everyone $1000 a month. This policy is estimated to grow the GDP by about 12%. MODERNIZE OUR EDUCATION When young adults graduate high school they are not prepared to enter the workforce. We need to implement a K-14 schooling system that includes courses on technical skills and engineering to provide a smoother transition into the workforce. END THE WARS The United States is currently at war in 8 different countries. Costing 507,000 lives (mostly innocent civilians) and 6 trillion dollars ($6,000,000,000,000) since 2001. The only thing these wars have accomplished in these past 18 years is making our enemies stronger. MEDICARE FOR ALL The United States is the only modern country that doesn’t guarantee healthcare to its citizens. Have you ever rationed medication or delayed an appointment because you couldn’t afford it? For citizens in Canada, Australia, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and many others; that is unthinkable. CLIMATE CRISIS Stanislaus County receives a billion dollars of revenue per year from agriculture of almonds. Our scientists are saying that our crop yields are expected to drop by 40% within the next 3 decades. This is unacceptable, but it’s not too late. We can prevent or slow down a climate crisis by investing in advanced technologies.[20] |
” |
—Ryan Blevins' campaign website (2020)[23] |
Marla Livengood
Livengood's campaign website stated the following:
“ |
Health care that works for us, not special interests As a fulltime working mother, I know how hard it can be to make ends meet. Like many families, our biggest expense is health care. Unfortunately, Congress has favored a one-size-fits-all approach to health care which has significantly increased costs. We need to allow people to purchase health care that suits their needs, as opposed to being forced into high priced comprehensive plans. Veteran’s should also be afforded health care options, outside the VA network, that are both patient focused and market-based. Ensuring our Farmers have a advocate in Congress My family and farmers across the Central Valley continue to face challenges because of poor representation in Congress. These challenges are compounded as Sacramento and Washington, DC attempt to cripple our $6 Billion Agriculture Industry. In fact, many crops are no longer feasible to grow, leading us to rely on foreign countries to provide them. I have been fighting for local Agriculture all of my adult life and it will be a top priority when I get to Congress. We must ensure trade deals are fair and create an effective ag guest worker program. As a matter of national security, we must also ensure access to water by protecting water rights, while building and maintaining new storage. Reforming education to meet students’ needs As a mother, with three kids in local public schools, I understand the frustration with the public education system. While my kids have been blessed with good schools and teachers, many families are not so fortunate. This is why I support a choice in education initiative. This will allow parents to take their hard-earned tax dollars and choose the school that best fits their child’s needs, including public, private, charter or home. We must also reform the federal student lending structure that has enabled colleges and universities to raise tuition costs at alarming rates. These increases primarily go to line the pockets of chancellors and professors that make high six or seven-figure salaries. Unfortunately, many students graduate with crippling debt and a degree that barely covers it. This is why I will facilitate vocational education institutions that teach students a trade to provide for themselves and their family.[20] |
” |
—Marla Livengood's campaign website (2020)[24] |
Campaign advertisements
This section shows advertisements released in this race. Ads released by campaigns and, if applicable, satellite groups are embedded or linked below. If you are aware of advertisements that should be included, please email us.
Josh Harder
A sample ad from the candidate's Facebook page is embedded below. Click here to see the candidate's Facebook Video page.
Bob Elliott
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Ted Howze
|
A sample ad from the candidate's Facebook page is embedded below. Click here to see the candidate's Facebook Video page.
Marla Livengood
Supporting Livengood
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Opposing Harder
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Campaign finance
This section contains campaign finance figures from the Federal Election Commission covering all candidate fundraising and spending in this election.[25] It does not include information on fundraising before the current campaign cycle or on spending by satellite groups. The numbers in this section are updated as candidates file new campaign finance reports. Candidates for Congress are required to file financial reports on a quarterly basis, as well as two weeks before any primary, runoff, or general election in which they will be on the ballot and upon the termination of any campaign committees.[26] The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.
Name | Party | Receipts* | Disbursements** | Cash on hand | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Josh Harder | Democratic Party | $7,540,661 | $4,091,139 | $3,469,763 | As of December 31, 2020 |
Mike Barkley | Democratic Party | $7,792 | $10,159 | $453 | As of December 31, 2020 |
Ryan Blevins | Democratic Party | $6,374 | $6,276 | $98 | As of March 31, 2020 |
Bob Elliott | Republican Party | $427,650 | $427,650 | $0 | As of December 31, 2020 |
Ted Howze | Republican Party | $1,582,899 | $1,878,229 | $14,241 | As of December 31, 2020 |
Marla Livengood | Republican Party | $139,233 | $139,233 | $0 | As of June 30, 2020 |
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2020. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).
* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." |
Polls
- See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
If you are aware of polls conducted in this race, please email us.
Satellite spending
- See also: Satellite spending
Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[27][28][29]
This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.
Interviews and questionnaires
Click the links below to view candidates' responses to questionnaires:
Debates and forums
Know of a debate or forum we're missing? Email us.
January 22, 2020
All six candidates participated in a debate hosted by The Modesto Bee at the State Theatre in Modesto.
|
Coverage:
Primaries in California
California uses a top-two primary system, in which all candidates appear on the same ballot. The top two vote-getters, regardless of party affiliation, move on to the general election. In states that do not use a top-two system, all parties are usually able to put forward a candidate for the general election if they choose to.[30][31]
Unlike the top-two format used in some states (Louisiana and Georgia special elections for example), a general election between the top-two candidates in California occurs regardless of whether the top candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round of elections.
As of June 2025, California was one of five states to use a top-two primary system, or a variation of the top-two system. See here for more information.
For information about which offices are nominated via primary election, see this article.
What's at stake in the general election?
U.S. House elections were held on November 3, 2020, and coincided with the 2020 presidential election. All 435 House districts were up for election, and the results determined control of the U.S. House in the 117th Congress.
At the time of the election, Democrats had a 232-197 advantage over Republicans. There was one Libertarian member, and there were five vacancies. Republicans needed to gain a net 21 seats to win control of the House. Democrats needed to gain seats or lose fewer than 14 net seats to keep their majority.
In the 2018 midterm election, Democrats had a net gain of 40 seats, winning a 235-200 majority in the House. Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans had a 235-193 majority with seven vacancies.
In the 25 previous House elections that coincided with a presidential election, the president's party had gained House seats in 16 elections and lost seats in nine. In years where the president's party won districts, the average gain was 18. In years where the president's party lost districts, the average loss was 27. Click here for more information on presidential partisanship and down-ballot outcomes.
General election race ratings
- See also: Race rating definitions and methods
Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:
- Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
- Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
- Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[32]
- Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.
Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[33][34][35]
Race ratings: California's 10th Congressional District election, 2020 | |||||||||
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Race tracker | Race ratings | ||||||||
November 3, 2020 | October 27, 2020 | October 20, 2020 | October 13, 2020 | ||||||
The Cook Political Report | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | Likely Democratic | |||||
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | Solid Democratic | |||||
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | Safe Democratic | |||||
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every week throughout the election season. |
District analysis
- See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
- See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores
The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was EVEN, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were within 1 percentage point of the national average. This made California's 10th Congressional District the 198th most Democratic nationally.[36]
FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.08. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.08 points toward that party.[37]
District election history
2018
General election
General election for U.S. House California District 10
Josh Harder defeated incumbent Jeff Denham in the general election for U.S. House California District 10 on November 6, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Josh Harder (D) | 52.3 | 115,945 |
![]() | Jeff Denham (R) | 47.7 | 105,955 |
Total votes: 221,900 | ||||
![]() | ||||
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Nonpartisan primary election
Nonpartisan primary for U.S. House California District 10
The following candidates ran in the primary for U.S. House California District 10 on June 5, 2018.
Candidate | % | Votes | ||
✔ | ![]() | Jeff Denham (R) | 37.5 | 45,719 |
✔ | ![]() | Josh Harder (D) | 17.0 | 20,742 |
![]() | Ted Howze (R) | 14.6 | 17,723 | |
![]() | Michael Eggman (D) | 10.2 | 12,446 | |
![]() | Virginia Madueno (D) | 9.2 | 11,178 | |
Sue Zwahlen (D) | 8.2 | 9,945 | ||
Mike Barkley (D) | 2.4 | 2,904 | ||
![]() | Dotty Nygard (D) | 0.9 | 1,100 |
Total votes: 121,757 | ||||
![]() | ||||
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey. | ||||
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team. |
Withdrawn or disqualified candidates
- Lisa Battista (D)
- Terra Snover (Independent)
- Mateo Morelos Bedolla (D)
- Seth Vaughn (D)
- Scott Shoblom (Independent)
2016
Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) defeated Michael Eggman (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Denham and Eggman defeated Robert Hodges (R) and Michael Barkley (D) in the top-two primary on June 7, 2016.[38][39]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
51.7% | 124,671 | |
Democratic | Michael Eggman | 48.3% | 116,470 | |
Total Votes | 241,141 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State |
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican |
![]() |
47.7% | 61,290 | |
Democratic | ![]() |
27.6% | 35,413 | |
Democratic | Michael Barkley | 14.5% | 18,576 | |
Republican | Robert Hodges | 10.2% | 13,130 | |
Total Votes | 128,409 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State |
2014
The 10th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent Jeff Denham (R) defeated Michael Eggman (D) in the general election.
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
56.1% | 70,582 | |
Democratic | Michael Eggman | 43.9% | 55,123 | |
Total Votes | 125,705 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State |
2012
According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 10th District was one of 13 congressional districts in California that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Leans Republican.[40] The incumbent from the 19th District, Jeff Denham, won the election in the district.[41]
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | ![]() |
52.7% | 110,265 | |
Democratic | Jose Hernandez | 47.3% | 98,934 | |
Total Votes | 209,199 | |||
Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" |
2010
On November 2, 2010, John Garamendi won election to the United States House. He defeated Gary Clift (R) and Jeremy Cloward (G) in the general election.[42]
2008
On November 4, 2008, Ellen Tauscher won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Nicholas Gerber (R) and Eugene Ruyle (P&F) in the general election.[43]
2006
On November 7, 2006, Ellen Tauscher won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Darcy Linn (R) in the general election.[44]
2004
On November 2, 2004, Ellen Tauscher won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Jeff Ketelson (R) in the general election.[45]
U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2004 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Democratic | ![]() |
65.7% | 182,750 | |
Republican | Jeff Ketelson | 34.3% | 95,349 | |
Total Votes | 278,099 |
2002
On November 5, 2002, Ellen Tauscher won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Sonia Esther Harden (L) in the general election.[46]
2000
On November 7, 2000, Ellen Tauscher won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Claude Hutchinson, Jr. (R) and Valerie Irene Janlois (Natural Law) in the general election.[47]
1998
On November 3, 1998, Ellen Tauscher won re-election to the United States House. She defeated Charles Ball (R), Valerie Janlois (Natural Law) and John Place (Reform) in the general election.[48]
1996
On November 5, 1996, Ellen Tauscher won election to the United States House. She defeated Bill Baker (R), John Place (Reform), Valerie Janlois (Natural Law) and Gregory Lyon (L) in the general election.[49]
1994
On November 8, 1994, Bill Baker won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Ellen Schwartz (D) and Craig Cooper (P&F) in the general election.[50]
1992
On November 3, 1992, Bill Baker won election to the United States House. He defeated Wendell Williams (D) in the general election.[51]
U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 1992 | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
Republican | ![]() |
52% | 145,702 | |
Democratic | Wendell Williams | 48% | 134,635 | |
N/A | Write-in | 0% | 92 | |
Total Votes | 280,429 |
1990
On November 6, 1990, Don Edwards won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Mark Patrosso (R) in the general election.[52]
See also
- California's 10th Congressional District election, 2020
- United States House elections in California, 2020 (March 3 top-two primaries)
- United States House Democratic Party primaries, 2020
- United States House Republican Party primaries, 2020
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2020
- U.S. House battlegrounds, 2020
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Facebook, "Bob Elliott on January 13, 2020," accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ Ted Howze 2020 campaign website, "Meet Ted," accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ Marla Livengood 2020 campaign website, "Marla on the Issues," accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ KCRA 3, "Freshman congressman faces 5 challengers in San Joaquin, Stanislaus counties," February 24, 2020
- ↑ Candidate Connection surveys completed before September 26, 2019, were not used to generate candidate profiles. In battleground primaries, Ballotpedia based its selection of noteworthy candidates on polling, fundraising, and noteworthy endorsements. In battleground general elections, all major party candidates and any other candidates with the potential to impact the outcome of the race were included.
- ↑ 6.00 6.01 6.02 6.03 6.04 6.05 6.06 6.07 6.08 6.09 6.10 6.11 6.12 6.13 6.14 6.15 6.16 6.17 6.18 6.19 6.20 6.21 6.22 6.23 6.24 6.25 6.26 6.27 6.28 6.29 Josh Harder 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed February 26, 2020
- ↑ Turlock City News, "Republican House Leader Kevin McCarthy Endorses Turlock's Congressional Candidate Ted Howze for CA-D10," February 26, 2020
- ↑ Ted Howze 2020 campaign website, "Congressman Jeff Denham (Ret.) Endorses Ted Howze for Congress," February 11, 2020
- ↑ 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 Ted Howze 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed February 26, 2020
- ↑ 10.0 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.4 10.5 Bob Elliott 2020 campaign website, "Endorsements," accessed February 26, 2020
- ↑ Facebook, "Ryan Blevins on February 27, 2020," accessed March 2, 2020
- ↑ Facebook, "Central Valley Taxpayers Association on March 1, 2020," accessed March 1, 2020
- ↑ Stanford College Republicans, "Official Stanford College Republicans California Voter Guide Primary Election 2020," accessed March 2, 2020
- ↑ Facebook, "Marla Sousa Livengood for Congress on January 3, 2020," accessed February 26, 2020
- ↑ Twitter, "Marla Sousa Livengood on January 9, 2020," accessed February 26, 2020
- ↑ California ProLife Council and Right to Life Federation, "California ProLife Council and Right to Life Federation PAC 2020 Endorsements," accessed February 26, 2020
- ↑ Escalon Times "Congressional Hopefuls Outline Priorities, Plans," February 26, 2020
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "California - House District 10," accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ The Modesto Bee, "Sparks fly amid charge of lying in raucous Congressional debate in Modesto," January 23, 2020
- ↑ 20.0 20.1 20.2 20.3 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
- ↑ Josh Harder 2020 campaign website, “On the Issues,” accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ Mike Barkley 2020 campaign website, “Mike Barkley, Candidate for Congress,” accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ Ryan Blevins 2020 campaign website, “Policy,” accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ Marla Livengood 2020 campaign website, “Marla on the Issues,” accessed February 27, 2020
- ↑ Fundraising by primary candidates can be found on the race's respective primary election page. Fundraising by general election candidates can be found on the race's general election page.
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2022 Quarterly Reports," accessed March 2, 2022
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
- ↑ National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
- ↑ National Conference of State Legislatures, "State Primary Election Types," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Primary Elections in California," accessed August 13, 2024
- ↑ Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
- ↑ Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
- ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Certified List of Candidates for Voter-Nominated Offices June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election," accessed April 4, 2016
- ↑ The New York Times, "California Primary Results," June 7, 2016
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2012 Competitive House Race Chart," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Politico, "2012 Election Map, California," accessed August 15, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2008," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2006," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2004," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 2002," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 7, 2000," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1998," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 5, 1996," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 8, 1994," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 3, 1992," accessed March 28, 2013
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 6, 1990," accessed March 28, 2013