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California's 10th Congressional District elections, 2012
2014 →
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November 6, 2012 |
June 5, 2012 |
Jeff Denham  |
John Garamendi  |
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The 10th Congressional District of California held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 6, 2012.
Former 19th District incumbent Jeff Denham (R) won the election.[1]
| Candidate Filing Deadline | Primary Election | General Election |
|---|---|---|
Primary: California has a top-two primary system, in which the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, go on to the general election.
Voter registration: Voters had to register to vote in the primary by May 21. For the general election, the voter registration deadline was October 22.[2]
- See also: California elections, 2012
Incumbent: Heading into the election the incumbent was John Garamendi (D), who was first elected in 2009.
According to a Cook Political Report analysis, the 10th District was one of 13 congressional districts in California that was at least somewhat competitive in 2012. The analysis rated it as Leans Republican.[3]
This was the first election which used new district maps based on 2010 Census data. California's 10th Congressional District is located in the central portion of the state and includes Stanislaus County and southern San Joaquin County.[4]
Blanket primary
This was the first election year in which California's Top Two Candidates Open Primary Act was in effect. Because of this, all candidates for a seat competed in one blanket primary. The two candidates who received the most votes then advanced to the general election on November 6.
The proposition's intent was to encourage primary competition, which backers of the act said would lead to more moderate legislators being elected. The primary results did reflect an increase in competition, with California's percentage of contested primaries being much higher than the nationwide average.[5]
However, the increase in competition also led to an increase in campaign spending, due to the fact that competition within political parties lasted for the entire year rather than ending after the primary. Raphael J. Sonenshein, executive director of the Edmund G. "Pat" Brown Institute of Public Affairs at Cal State L.A., said the following, "It's hard to argue it's a better system where the incumbent congressman has a huge war chest and nobody else has any money... At least now we can make him spend it."[5]
As a result of the blanket primary, nine congressional districts had same-party candidates battling in the November 6 general election. Of those, seven were between Democrats.[6]
There were also over a dozen same-party races in the state legislature in November.[6]
Candidates
General election candidates
June 5, 2012, primary results
- Mike Barkley[7]
- Jose Hernandez
[8] - Jeff Denham District 19 incumbent[8]
Chad Condit- Troy Wayne McComak
Election results
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican |  Jeff Denham Incumbent |
52.7% | 110,265 | |
| Democratic | Jose Hernandez | 47.3% | 98,934 | |
| Total Votes | 209,199 | |||
| Source: California Secretary of State "Official Election Results, 2012 General Election" | ||||
| Candidate | Vote % | Votes |
|---|---|---|
|
Jeff Denham (R) Incumbent |
49.2% | 45,779 |
| Jose Hernandez (D) |
28% | 26,072 |
| Chad Condit (NPP) | 15% | 13,983 |
| Michael Barkley (D) | 5.4% | 5,028 |
| Toroy Wayne McComak (NPP) | 2.3% | 2,114 |
| Total Votes | 92,976 | |
Race background
Competitiveness
California's 10th was considered to be Leaning Republican according to the New York Times race ratings. Incumbent Republican Jeff Denham was challenged by Jose Hernandez, a first-time candidate. Democrats held a slight registration advantage.[9]
The new 10th District was seen as a "swing seat that could result in Nancy Pelosi re-claiming the position of Speaker" if Jose Hernandez won the election. Hernandez said, "This is a district with two distinct candidates and there’s a clear contrast between us... (Denham) is a typical conservative ...I’m a typical Democrat with values that mirror hard work and perseverance.” Denham stated, "For me, it’s more about Valley jobs and Valley issues... That’s what I’ve been doing for the past year-and-a-half in Congress and that’s what I plan to do in the future.”[10]
California's 10th District was included in the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's "Red to Blue List," which identified districts that the organization specifically targeted to flip from Republican to Democratic control.[11]
Incumbent Jeff Denham was a part of the National Republican Congressional Committee's Patriot Program, a program to help House Republicans increase their majority in 2012.[12]
Using the Federal Election Commission's October Quarterly campaign finance filings, the Brennan Center for Justice at The New York University School of Law published a report on October 22nd focusing on the 25 House races rated most competitive by The Cook Political Report, including the race for California's 10th. The report examines the relative spending presence of non-candidate groups, candidates, and small donors in these races - "which will likely determine which party will control the House."[13]
| List of 25 Toss Up Races from the Cook Political Report:[14] | |
|---|---|
|
Democratic Toss Ups: Republican Toss Ups: | |
Impact of redistricting
- See also: Redistricting in California
The 10th District was re-drawn after the 2010 Census. The new district is composed of the following percentages of voters of the old congressional districts.[15][16]
- 26 percent from the 11th Congressional District
- 33 percent from the 18th Congressional District
- 41 percent from the 19th Congressional District
Registration statistics
As of October 23, 2012, District 10 had the following partisan registration breakdown according to the California Secretary of State:
| California Congressional District 10[17] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Congressional District | District Total | Democrats | Republicans | Other & Unaffiliated | Advantage | Party Advantage | Change in Advantage from 2010 |
| District 10 | 296,206 | 119,579 | 114,269 | 62,358 | Democratic | 4.65% | -59.64% |
| "Party advantage" is the percentage gap between the two major parties in registered voters. "Change in advantage" is the spread in difference of party advantage between 2010 and 2012 based on the congressional district number only. | |||||||
District partisanship
FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012 study
- See also: FairVote's Monopoly Politics 2012
In 2012, FairVote did a study on partisanship in the congressional districts, giving each a percentage ranking (D/R) based on the new 2012 maps and comparing that to the old 2010 maps. California's 10th District became more Democratic because of redistricting.[18]
- 2012: 48D / 52R
- 2010: 43D / 57R
Cook Political Report's PVI
In 2012, Cook Political Report released its updated figures on the Partisan Voter Index, which measures each congressional district's partisanship relative to the rest of the country. California's 10th Congressional District has a PVI of R+5, which is the 187th most Republican district in the country. In 2008, this district was won by Barack Obama (D), 51-49 percent over John McCain (R). In 2004, George W. Bush (R) won the district 58-42 percent over John Kerry (D).[19]
Campaign contributions
Candidates for Congress were required to file up to seven main reports with the Federal Election Commission during the 2012 elections season. Below are candidate reports.
Jose Hernandez
| Jose Hernandez (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[20] | April 15, 2012 | $130,527.35 | $314,788.01 | $(121,873.99) | $323,441.37 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[21] | May 24, 2012 | $323,441.37 | $114,150.79 | $(70,330.97) | $367,261.19 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $428,938.8 | $(192,204.96) | ||||||||
Jeff Denham
| Jeff Denham (2012) Campaign Finance Reports | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | Date Filed | Beginning Balance | Total Contributions for Reporting Period | Expenditures | Cash on Hand | ||||
| April Quarterly[22] | April 15, 2012 | $809,526.96 | $274,200.56 | $(115,313.43) | $968,414.09 | ||||
| Pre-Primary[23] | May 24, 2012 | $968,414.09 | $160,921.83 | $(104,675.97) | $1,024,659.95 | ||||
| Running totals | |||||||||
| $435,122.39 | $(219,989.4) | ||||||||
Chamber of commerce spending
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce spent a total of $3.3 million on television advertisements aimed at electing ten California Republican congressional candidates, Democratic sources told Hotline.[24]
In California's 10th Congressional District, The Chamber spent $497,000 to elect Jeff Denham.[24]
District history
| Candidate ballot access |
|---|
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| Find detailed information on ballot access requirements in all 50 states and Washington, D.C. |
2010
On November 2, 2010, John Garamendi won re-election to the United States House. He defeated Gary Clift and Jeremy Cloward in the general election.[25]
| U.S. House, California District 10 General Election, 2010 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Vote % | Votes | |
| Democratic | John Garamendi Incumbent |
58.8% | 137,578 | |
| Republican | Gary Clift | 37.9% | 88,512 | |
| Green | Jeremy Cloward | 3.3% | 7,716 | |
| Total Votes | 233,806 | |||
See also
- United States House of Representatives elections in California, 2012
- United States House of Representatives elections, 2012
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ CNN, "California Districts Race - 2012 Election Center," accessed December 1, 2012
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Elections FAQ," accessed July 20, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2012 Competitive House Race Chart," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ California Redistricting Map, "Map" accessed September 25, 2012
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 Los Angeles Times, "Few centrists advance in California's new primary system," June 7, 2012
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 Reuters, "Democrats face Democrats in new California election system," June 6, 2012
- ↑ "Political boundaries could lead to legal fight", tracypress.com, August 16, 2011
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 "Astronaut Challenging Freshman Jeff Denham", rollcall.com, October 13, 2011
- ↑ New York Times, "House Race Ratings," accessed August 7, 2012
- ↑ Ivn.us, "California Incumbents Face New Challenges In November," July 18, 2012
- ↑ DCCC, "Red to Blue 2012"
- ↑ NRCC "Patriot Program 2012"
- ↑ Brennan Center for Justice, "Election Spending 2012: 25 Toss-Up House Races," October 22, 2012
- ↑ The Cook Political Report, "House: Race Ratings," updated October 18, 2012
- ↑ Moonshadow Mobile's CensusViewer, "California's congressional districts 2001-2011 comparison"
- ↑ Labels & Lists, "VoterMapping software voter counts"
- ↑ California Secretary of State, "Congressional Voter Registration Statistics," May 21, 2012
- ↑ "2011 Redistricting and 2012 Elections in California," September 2012
- ↑ Cook Political Report, "Partisan Voting Index Districts of the 113th Congress: 2004 & 2008" accessed October 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jose Hernandez April Quarterly," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jose Hernandez Pre-Primary," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Denham April Quarterly," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ Federal Election Commission, "Jeff Denham Pre-Primary," accessed July 10, 2012
- ↑ 24.0 24.1 National Journal, "Chamber Drops $3.3 Million for California Repubs," September 27, 2012
- ↑ U.S. Congress House Clerk, "Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010," accessed March 28, 2013
